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1、養(yǎng)老金融評論2022 年第 2 期(總第 75 期)楊燕綏 等:中國社會保障的百年實踐席恒 等:中國共產黨促進中國社會保障事業(yè)發(fā)展的探索與啟示孫守紀 等:個稅遞延型商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險動態(tài)模擬研究基于生命周期模型的分析婁飛鵬:發(fā)展第三支柱養(yǎng)老保險應對人口老齡化中國養(yǎng)老金融 50 人論壇 HYPERLINK / 目錄【本期重點關注】楊燕綏 等:中國社會保障的百年實踐4席 恒 等:中國共產黨促進中國社會保障事業(yè)發(fā)展的探索與啟示10 孫守紀 等:個稅遞延型商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險動態(tài)模擬研究基于生命周期模型的分析30婁飛鵬:發(fā)展第三支柱養(yǎng)老保險應對人口老齡化45【養(yǎng)老金融觀點集萃】胡宏偉 等:促進社會資本進入養(yǎng)老行業(yè)的

2、幾點思考和建議55陽義南:社會保障支持銜接機構型醫(yī)養(yǎng)結合服務及其“梗阻”破除62童雪敏 等:從中美個人養(yǎng)老金調查看養(yǎng)老理財產品的發(fā)展方向79【CAFF50 大事記】2022 年 1 月 CAFF50 動態(tài)94!#$%&()*+,-./01234567*+,89:;?67BCDEFGH-I0JK%LMNOP?67“QRS”TUVWXZ_ab,cdef g?67*+n,$opqrstuv wxklyz|klge?67*+KTkl-hij:;#n&kl 50 890I)2n&?67,ersn&kl 50 0I )2n&Ln&?671r s,e n&kl 50 ZqE I6?67+.35dT k6L

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33、ylor K7a k6;cklNfig3GcB|gK3kNfilgB,3c, *= 1 K$T5klCavk6c nOptimal portfolio4(G3QR2013U,jnYI %7,eBX,fli|,Y BXI %7,% 6,p+Ktu 100-age7()-5*5v23m5,B3B XNCa4eB k6*BXp3? c ,K|R3F“12,4,Fh 1998-2017 &fi3,3Ey+p +j#R15UR16U GDP_gap feflmU,Ze fL3%R2001U,j“=&, a,m! GDP_gapN(0,0.016)K%+2Vfly+%L,V fly+MMW+%L,MW+M

34、Kwq7,KL +$%L,KtMT,Ey+24 p7,y+GW+3V flfi y+L 2018,f%MK37,l,7,22a,E JesenN(0.04858,0.00724),2K3klfl 7,$K7C*E 20 O$5U$-|Knt|% 60 Or|% 55 OK*m 20 OGzmGzkzBXw$TrqGlk|GrlkK5dTn|,fl”+,4( Gourinchas 3 ParkerR2002U,CaF=0.514K,SBX12 Pt 46MS,bBX?KLc+, Ht %c,y+ 1cy+F 2008- 2017 10 ,KLw0BXy+ g=12.02%K()- k6,m)7C

35、-$%46lgRflBX, 6%3fl 1000 pUKBX,+3BXe7,fli4(G3QR2013U,j FYI=0.01?671, 2008-2017 10 ,KLB+%MF RPt=3%KR,2F!5BXh,4 6M5BX7 Merton cdnIpJJ46M 5,BXp?c,U7KF+! b7,3kl46F5c, OG 6m46|,-5,BKT 1 H46 k6,m5,kN filx kllg,L-KmIROptimal portfolioUnz4$,*%,6lXkNfilK M+%u kl,BFyc,c L_F,BwM+g46ju,nMa,Kp,y46mkN fil,cL_b_46

36、pyV.aa B&Km100-agen46,k NfilXcl,L_% 100 fiKmRRisk avoidUn46%,6pXGcnGa,BK3M/F 20 O4$flBX% 8321 p|,*TN 100 O,t3r%M/2546,m46ep5c,M5BXp3?c$T 2T 3 KT 2 nED&,M/4e 6,tBXEBX 9.83 py- 16.37 prBXE 20 O, 9.83py-|e 15.39 pKm|h3t|3r.t,p-u3rEt g3fi1 ,pT-Lu3r|t,JklBXu 3rK #J/|t D&,JklBX d% 8.83 p/Jkl+d% 53.94%rD&J

37、 klBXd% 6.70 p/Jkl+d% 43.52%K3 4e 6,t3r|e. 499.26 p, k66pBX3546,Km| 6%46ab 1.08 - 2.35 p,D&BXt3rkl+25yd 14.35%3 7.02%46|,BXMaK()-=&dl,:;+5! 20%fi4eB k63uBX*y 7%- 14%,kl+K%6B k63nuBXkl, OnuBX,+,-)aG 70%,+,fi MB k6,.L_3lgK.Kwq-mj“nvc%46|ab5lg,klBXv ab,BX%Optimal portfoliou3100-age100-ageu3Risk avoidKT

38、 3 HM/M5,Ip.m$TTh3 ”- d6plg5um$nTh3BX,y pmp%,!vKj“ # flj34646|ep5F 0.5 pm|46yH 0.5 - 1 p,pK|*5K% HMk”()|4eB k6*h 3fl34e,* |lBXIpfl3|e #KET 3 v k6cL5*H|,plg$HeJkl3”BX |p,%&KT 4RaU3 4RbUHt3r6m5 6 D&,lgnOptimal portfolioFG,BIuRisk avoidIKwqh3eBLc%.,kNfillgKqt3r m|eIMT,lgLMaL_&.%m|G&JKSj3BFBM()U ./,5dT

39、64eBXp3c,FK Zr#tMM/RflBX 8321 pTN 100 OU,t3r46mI c|LE k6F|lOGklB X+25yd 14.35%3 7.02%K 63kl+yp$otu46b=BIab,Bj k6,Bk6?OGIc,uBX46Gju,BK%HY k6m& s,NfiE+qq# U*BI“K%cfic)yU+pquBX*,BXIn2BX*EO U,-BI“K%H( U,uBX*46()%tvwxp,eg -fl 2000 p% 3000 p?KLcy +2L7,_D&BD&yk“,(qK&Ffigr446KEBL_DabcKL+MdefgLhi#n&kl 50 Zn&

40、“”grs1 Z2ppQRSC3 2035 T0Nfi.rsUU wxk6*+udl:;+rstvwxk6KE&fErsUUwxk6*+, !=& K.rsUUwxk6KJtvwxk6 rsoabm“,=&LH, rs-hm1K3()j&fL2%!$%nopqO01213 45 32 7C=&vwxk6IjIrs2U3&:f3&fE%tvwxk6rsflq Ifi $%rs-hjH tvwxk6rs,mIE“l(fā)93 v+fliBKMtvwxk6jIrs2UE&f3hLj, =&vwxk6*+cjIrs2UjIK()-_eE rsKvwxk6*+,:;3rsflqK. tvwxk6$%rs-hr

41、sflqKRMU=&UwxUk6*+jIrs2UUwxk6*+&f, !K_,fiM5dK1994 Gjvwxk6*+U,&LHKm*+3 !+Z,&”&2.r,&IBHvwxk6*+ HI,kckm“o3U2nK=&NBHvwxk6*+16?&fi3 ,2020 (=& vwxk6clkge GDP ,L_% 9.2%ntMwxk6jlge GDP ,L_% 5.72%tuwxdl 31l lge GDP ,L_% 3.48%tvwxk6 lge GDP ,L_a%6KflL&Fvwxk6*+ro3 HjU,kcK&cG?3&E2,fi3,2019 &vwxk6clkge GDP,L_% 1

42、34.39%ntMuvwx lge GDP ,L_ % 10.73%79.33%44.33%K5rO:;IVcljkIU,k 6=& ,ce GDP ,L_ 3&Kw klbc 2020=&kl,mfi3, 70 &n+ 26 +KEkc =&vw xk6*+jIrs2UKRuUtvwxk6=&UwxUk6*+, rs-hvwxk6Irs2U,J=&f$ot vwxk6,rsflq IKE_+_Lju,& M, jU_ jYfi_ j-K2020 s,tA&7, ,% 1.91 9x, 13.5%L 2010 tK& 7!,y 7171 xLu 4.58 2hKa b=&_, Yb_K%Tp3

43、 uKEErsK3?“BX?,ErsKLj!I?“BX5!gm nkKbmErsKu,%e_Yu,cd?“BX*fi 65qKJ=G m%b=&u 8“?“wkI5nr$oK1mk6*+BCnOr,&5“?“ II9K&k6*+n?67 ,&Mp_KF:;k63CBvwxk6*+Do3&?“wnqKl,-w&Ikl67ukljI, &=_?“nFU,k1?mjIKEk6vwx=&k6vwxrs5Lcd%136?,fi3,$% 2020 (=&4k6,% 99882 4dl,% 2718 41l,% 3000 U4B k6,% 4.88 KetMuwxLMNIrsejUdKtM wxk6:;DE

44、jV?fi1B5w 2cd%ejI,qKtuwxn1lk 4:;- 2015 bzy,m&LMNrsV.yzDVInIdBdl,I:;wkDrsK&:”+juMa q kcN-b kc# aHtvwxk6bjIrs2UKutvwxk6,20 G 90 21 GbL)24k6dl31l/0,1k6ptv wxk6,K*b=&tvwxk6FGHLs,mMcdKRMUtvwxk6rs,“,L20 G 90 =&rstvwxk6K1991 6fl 26 1991?33 U#pE,rsNBk6edk631”k6flj, K1995 3 fl 17 1995?6 U#&mBk667H|5q,abrsB k

45、6K 2014 8 fl 10 2014?29 U&QvSC.2I.sB k6hKQRSC3 2035 T0Nfi.LMNrstvwxk6KRuUtvwxk6rs,2018 4 fl 12 2018?22 U 2018 5 fl 1 QVBRA8U3w B k6hKfip=&tvwxk6B CBtMNK2018 2 fl 11 2018?2 Um 8 fl 6 8r|6kNfilK2021 b=&tvwxk6ghNYK5fl 15 2021?57 U 2021 6 fl 1 m ERU3-Fs k6hn&4 N6G-G2 6 6G4eK9 fl 10 2021? 95 U 2021 9 fl

46、15 )?-GmHI 30IB)?-G3J)?-GmWXpI)?-GmKsk)?ghK RvUtvwxk6h,0ecd Neb=&tvwxk6hFGHM0gD:;6lvl2K6?,fi3,2020 (B k636pBX 4.26 9pK2021 9 fl(kNfil3r 152 ;3 940 9pKeVI24,kVJflLtvwxk6rsV. L1Us$KEVJ+=& IyjYgmNj()kcdI?y kc,lg,VJK,E+bNe+fi,C33LMNlg j%M_cd%lgc-mM! M%2cdKB k6hn BI,“-fl-ENH,6 2cdKvrstvwxk6,Btvwxk6rs.pv+

47、.*“l(fā)93K=&o3k,lgfl5!V.“P !wl18W_l1j9bLtvwxk 6rs *VI24,klVJKe mrstvwxk6,Fn4e.*B *V.4eLbKRMU“C3P!)wtvwxk6k6GjrsGO%3&“,kmnK()-=& I yY2./mtvwxk6rs+V.“C3ETrs L+fi,K M%JKmfP$nC8,+k63 sBIcgQ2q“k6vwx3sk6,)3“18OPBI“K u()Golg+ALBIK&fEBIsk6c,I+AKm=&fnV. LI:;,. qsk6c,*(BIq, sk6c,* Z s, U,E NnKv4e.*3c+,Up_Kmtvwxk

48、6r sFnV.6ClR2|l9VS 4eU“18a93gafiMml93 lg2)j%h,MX,t vwxk6rs3cfi1()c+3cg,Up_K_P$u|.*4e,WKRuUl9yzlg)*t,lg3Lpo,Kl 9$%lg3,+ LH,mTVgpgw25u,cd5m!24 kc,V.KM_ AK3tvwxk6,M)o_EAmga3/iU9C32+1* $%1kCccgcljFbc2M U lK uC3gKk6cT-,cgB+67iHV.F),cC367TBK.()Tcn,5a./5V,WXma$ewFKvZ_lKp5dTPQ,54 etvwxk6,.VJ5Kl9V.Y1 5dT,)1V

49、JL2Z_lKR )Kk6cjV.FB uK $0+fiWX Z c/)k_Z 2WoPQQjE)KRvU.ul/kjf4eN,-b5|k N ,cdp . 5C5q( I-.Y EY. fi5UPQ,_Ktvwxk6,rsV. 4eKMyl,HK,lukCq3l5q3m595lg ,K.k0El9+ Gl,_KuE)+LD&K3kcdV.Ekrk” kNhckKm*ckn.NY/TcTBcyac)jb,)K vj$4eKtvwxk6,N, m!5qV.g*Ftvwxk6 kc,.q.jBX$35q,MTL)cK!#kl“hbcNn&kl 50 0 ZJklk,flicdr,d QPHh gf

50、*,L?cLXk,h(3B?67wh)9?kjpi. ”phXgHI5j&k*,EnklD7k)?g,rs+hKlmIhcNnKjkl %&78)*mn8oKLp: qrstuvwg#n&kl 50 Zn&4IV5!k?67 Z!$%&st01213 45 11 789:;uAv?uxCuxDE;&(s HILMIKCki+9V,451yIrsflq,gKfie=&k()r5W ?cLXk,-k?c U,YAwqLXk?V W?cLXk,?ce4Uc|?/ip42U|?.*K?cUp_UA,K=&k5;Vp8|U*oUp_UA2hK?cLXk+A5M5q5aU5mfiMA3L XAK?cLXk

51、Mpo,cdKfie?cDE5YAVSLXH=&k kklkg2LX,Zn?cLXflik c$qE2F FGG$PPPR“34Uc$U2A k9FZR)6Er E2YA4e,B4 34X-“k5*+nflj3fi,GG$2 2A$, PPP A?c“npjbuT$W nKk PPP MNc*jIte_ kD5dT$KNeIS,$A% o MN, BOTRBCuuU?cLXkM+I*LHk,rs q3qqIjI ,L0%Ey,zM wM+?c2rsyH?clXj9?c0%=&jfi_fg,-. wcKu?cLXke,:1fg?cLXk?c/i:1,|cd3d6.e 5!e)q5!5eq5!3N

52、fimZK tMe 5!KkK55!cdj% ?k9,rsKflfi,9-?kju)2wVJ,jfiqG!u ,k?k9,53rsK tu?c4ekd39Ieq/iq5!, -KNe12k9xp3 y,)PQfiM,fiM3fibq )3qBC5!gz_$_c&2+q5!?ckd39,r sqKtv?95q5 ,MI9F 8“.3fli“w5 q5k?d9LXk kM#5!fiq5!5pMr3jfidV ,|VJqjKtR3NfimZK|RZ?cm LXkkbrsF3“Wjb+MTFuNfi Z?cLXkk5|H?ckKv?cLXk,“B.LMNc2&i3Lkrs,S FOPC3L?wyk./

53、? cLXkKtM?,V K) a“ ?R+.*UV 3fli+zv+.*,i+cdi+C3?cL X HLXLXK2iHcdK|Rk3u,|.“.n,J(p12 I-hij 22Vu2vf*,kVJ#kw?k,-.YAhM*“fifiIk3ak,w q B|W,“wRC&dW20l lLB4?cK? cFZR)rE2U +A4e-“3c n-h4e-5Ew2?KtuykiHKM+T:.k_rs %.*,J(u67m!fu V.wM+T:.eTu)62rs. OPK.YB&k& kaD&a,iHKqfikc*s:Nk2iH“,L_./0F,“. LMN_|ws,hFBI?“s2 ?cLX k

54、rsKMkcl67?“s BIw2Km?“s+M.+AY9shVVhVu.6cl% k1EpXl?“MF*+“?“Xb v.Wfi(Wk9W2?c4e,KmBI+M.wkwkCB CBX5w59LM(eu.0).w k9c3 BEcl3rw2ekgk3?kj2z BIK mw+%2nl9.Wo“c n6CMkg FBI3(82+A l9syzg _?Ku*67KM.v%FFrC2+A k2Fo*u.?cWorsko*dv._w_y ko*?c4ewk*wKv: 67KF+fi,u)oNkP,cMX8a T,1N(8p, w*+qk:01BCKtv2K.LMN”|* 7OP()*+3()q&|8

55、3 WkWWk9 343cdK.5q +L3N83k1n1_5OP“.ZRPPP 2+A9“18hh.,z3grsLke?o2k,m5PQ2zQfiors kNoM6q3q,kd“Er s,zyhK.&“18,“cY0wq9 BfiM,k_+fiOPk92J, _2_(), &*k()*+3q5meVJfiMa|s“+318&()KK tR?cd9rsKOP“!rqq9,27fiq Uije 9BPUp,k q1Ld9 OP:1)Ad)3:1?3 L):qu_KY0gzfiyk yk5equ ,3gK yz&)*+,b|gIK !gi#n&kl 50 ZiI) V5!kMo 2020 tA&7

56、,D2.64 9x 18.7% 191 9x 135%Kb=&%F, 1/3h#aHn&B C4,-hK_J54J5N,n&K%2016 ,!$%G&yzHII|,-yI01213 45 % 7Cn& 2030C._bfi_fgK%_QvSC- 2020 w%R9%?kflj,k*+K?kj%fike?j,zkAKn 9?kj=&k*+,-./012K2020 10 fl&5Z?4“1&n?x) Z, ?kj9)7i%?kj9a%t?5c 3kq,?9k9.%X9,5q?u) pu9)w2K Ne9?kj.k?k?k$v A mn.%k9u) p?8v1? u)U?9kPR?kjn9U2+AK

57、rskKLcR,cdK?kj,wn6 7*+?kjrs,-.K=&L GDP w%” 1 p20K3LMNBX3 1000 p,5Kuk)vGkh“ J(67,-hhIU,nBXkK _67,1ccdD0%Ne=&?kje,XhM?6?VW2E67*+, wh)Ke=&k675O#1cewn+AF3MKqH *eflh)LMNOP22KQRSTU=&hg _hn _,-. TKH _ M.rsk?67*+%u T)/*h)bOk Ge,clb?67clN*o3kKNe Z?kj -3 ijHu?kjk,Kp 2c d?671c ,OPcd?671ce?kjU,h)cdijK Z%F2&fi3,

58、pmVWU*,D7j “?67wh)9?kjk,i.f ”,BKuj&qUOoTuMb,9?kjR 9uUK_ m 2064 O, 1556 +,wu:IOI,Tu.JMjKqZIUij?kjwn67*+3Tu)62cdKDukF&“,2HHXTu) A%fiFTu+,JC6*+cl2&“,Lb#fieTu+fi,cdKNeIU+& ,6+fi?6Tu+fi,-.$oK &p&2,?:;+ju?6L1cK&Jq3I,? 6 3CV:;,?6$%Jm?6,:BH,Tu6K&:jUijTu)6 C33E.&:h)&qTu)6ELjKKK2Lj 2HK3iTu)6mA1c3 +,5fiB ,Tu)6

59、3?6O7 K%3&Tu)6, iE2?VW! “O# zEBH“%.!4e,?VW Km=&9?kjA.k?k?k$Kmk?k?k$v 9?kjA nZjUijk?Kk9s?kjN e&L?kj,.K?kk9rs,z.K12 Zij?kj9,rsfe?67 HfgK,?67x5OP?6?VW3?I_VK 7%=&k6h12 7ab,0I,k6 3LMNKi3V.B ,?6 xKVWUp.?VW K=&_0fcdh-K?c20 5)fi ,5VJ5,K=&x%MI*X8|C%? ? Kp?67)cd?k1cAK K.YOP?6fli“%O,k9X?6 ahE“?6e?ck9,)+Kb 7k?m

60、k9?6ahCFf?6-g-“6H?59,rs5*J?OG5mM“wk,k93?9X$,fKhb#?6ah.h?kj9:;zB? kj9MBF.p)?6ahF?kj 9?6,-g)F?kjs?6ah3? 6clOoU?kj9rs22K&:q Zmp9?kjf U,?63Tu)6,)cd,s?VW32 ?kj9m,?67wf, Z %SK v?67h)?kj,.i. Ne9?kjk.q,./ ?m?kjne ,rsf?67w5?kj9,?6734K2=&,klKe.?kjk,ZUI,?VW 3|673Km!X9,?kjkVJ%j,2*D7j“b m,.cdKRMUklBX5!wc.9k&Di3L

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