人力資源管理雙語教學(xué)課件03人力資源規(guī)劃

Chapter3

HumanResourcePlanning

Learningobjectives:3-1HRP

3-1-1TheDefinitionofHRP3-1-2TheElementsofHRP3-1-3TheFunctionsofHRP3-2TheProcessofHRP3-2-1DeterminingOrganizationalObjectives3-2-2ForecastingHRNeeds3-2-3ForecastingPersonnelSupply3-2-4DevelopingActionPlans3-3TheForecastingMethods3-3-1MethodsofForecastingHumanResourceNeeds3-3-2MethodsofForecastingHRSupplyLearningobjectives:Whenyoufinishstudyingthischapter,youshouldbeableto:ExplainthemeaningofHRP.UnderstandthefunctionsofHRP.Explaintheprocessofforecastingpersonalrequirements.Discusstheprosandcons(優(yōu)劣)ofthemethodsusedforrecruitingjobcandidates.KeyWords:Humanresourceplanning人力資源規(guī)劃Personnelneed雇員需求(personnelsupply)Additional(net)HRrequirement人力資源凈需求Skillinventory技能清單(managementinventory管理人員清單)Managerialestimate管理估計法(Managerialjudgment)Delphitechnique德爾斐技術(shù)Scenarioanalysis企業(yè)遠(yuǎn)景分析Trendanalysis趨勢分析(Timeseriesanalysis)Ratioanalysis比率分析(Personnelratio,Productivityratio)Regressionanalysis回歸分析(Scatterplot散點(diǎn)圖)Successionplanning繼任規(guī)劃Organizationreplacementchart組織替代圖3-1HRP3-1-1TheDefinitionofHRPPlanningHumanresourceplanningDefinedasgettingtherightnumberofqualifiedpeopleintotherightjobattherighttime.Personnelplanning

istotranslatetheorganization’splansandobjectivesintoatimedschedule(同步進(jìn)度)ofemployeerequirements(雇員需求).Workforceplanning

isthesystemofmatching(匹配)thesupplyofpeoplewiththeopeningstheorganizationexpectstohaveoveragiventimeframe(既定時間框架內(nèi)).Planning計劃職能：通過科學(xué)預(yù)測、權(quán)衡主觀需要與客觀可能，提出在未來一定時期內(nèi)要達(dá)到的目標(biāo)和實(shí)現(xiàn)的途徑。換句話說，就是對未來行動的預(yù)先安排，是針對未來的謀劃、籌備、規(guī)劃。表現(xiàn)形式有宗旨、目標(biāo)、戰(zhàn)略、規(guī)劃、政策、程序、規(guī)則。分類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)種類

時間長期、中期、短期

層次戰(zhàn)略層、戰(zhàn)術(shù)層職能財務(wù)、人事、生產(chǎn)、營銷、技術(shù)明確程度指令性、指導(dǎo)性Strategy業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略1業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略2業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略3職能戰(zhàn)略MarketingplanningProductionplanningPersonnelplanningTherelationshipbetweenHRPandorganizationstrategyStrategy-LinkedHRPFactorsAffectingtheTimeFrameofHRPTable6.3P128ForecastFactorDemandSupplyNetneedsShortRange(0-2Years)Authorized授權(quán)employmentincludinggrowth,changes,andturnoverEmployeeconsensuslessexpectedlossesplusexpectedpromotionsfromsubordinategroupsNumbersandkindsofemployeesneededIntermediateRange(2-5Years)Operatingneeds(經(jīng)營需求)frombudgetsandplansHumanresourcevacanciesexpectedfromindividualpromotabilitydataderivedfromdevelopmentplansNumbers,kinds,datesandlevelsofneedsLongRange(Beyond5Years)Insomeorganizations,thesameas“intermediate”;inothers,anincreasedawarenessofchangesinenvironmentandtechnology.Managementexpectationsofchangingcharacteristicsofemployeesandfutureavailablehumanresources.Managementexpectationsoffutureconditionsaffectingimmediatedecisions(對影響當(dāng)前決策的未來條件的預(yù)期)3-1-2TheElementsofHRPBasicHRP(generalHRP)人力資源總體規(guī)劃ThequantityThequalityThestructureFunctionalHRP人力資源職能計劃RecruitingplanningPromotingplanningDownsizingplanning縮編計劃TrainingplanningHRdevelopmentplanningMotivationplanning激勵計劃Paymentplanning報酬計劃TherelationshipofFunctionalHRP人力資源總監(jiān)在年初發(fā)現(xiàn)，公司的生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)新員工流失比較嚴(yán)重，公司一直以來傳統(tǒng)的做法都是繼續(xù)補(bǔ)充新人以彌補(bǔ)空缺。但是，經(jīng)過調(diào)查分析，新員工的流失與老員工的潛意識自我保護(hù)密切相關(guān)，他們擔(dān)心新員工對他們帶來職業(yè)威脅。人力資源部門為此制定了一些新措施，一方面改善了老員工在職務(wù)晉升方面的通道設(shè)計，另一方面建立導(dǎo)師制，確立由老員工帶教新員工的方式，并補(bǔ)助他們相應(yīng)津貼。這種方式在初期增加了公司的人力資源成本，但從長期來看，卻極大程度上穩(wěn)定了整個生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的員工隊伍，而且經(jīng)驗(yàn)的傳遞、生手到熟手的過渡都變得非常快捷而自然。這可以通過數(shù)字成本對比分析得出。3-1-3ThefunctionsofHRP（1）PoorHRPcancauseproblems:Despiteanaggressive(積極的)search,avital(關(guān)鍵的)

middlemanagementposition

inahigh-technologyorganizationhasgoneunfilledforsixmonths.Productivity

inthesectionhasplummeted(下降).Inanothercompany,employeeshiredjustninemonthsagohavebeenplacedonindefinitelayoff(長期下崗)becauseofanunforeseenlagintheworkload(工作滯后)inaspecificproductionarea.Instillanothercompany,thankstothespectacularefforts(巨大努力)ofatalentedmarketingmanager,productdemandhassoared(激增).However,becausetheriseindemandwasunanticipated,thecompanyhasnotbeenabletohireenoughproductionemployees.ACase:

某公司是一家通訊設(shè)備生產(chǎn)廠。在一次例行的周末經(jīng)理會議上，銷售經(jīng)理說：“我有一個好消息，我們得到一個大訂單，但是我們必須在一年內(nèi)完成，而不是兩年完成。我告訴客戶我們能夠做到。”這時，人力資源總監(jiān)提出一個現(xiàn)實(shí)的問題：“據(jù)我所知，我們現(xiàn)有人員根本無法在客戶要求的期限內(nèi)生產(chǎn)出符合他們要求的產(chǎn)品。我們需要逐步對我們現(xiàn)有工人進(jìn)行培訓(xùn)，同時還需要到社會上招聘一些具有這種產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的工人。我認(rèn)為我們應(yīng)該對這一項目再進(jìn)行一些詳細(xì)分析。如果我們必須在一年內(nèi)而不是兩年完成這一項目。我們的人力資源成本將大幅度增加，項目的成本也將增加?！?/p>

Questions：人力資源總監(jiān)提出的意見依據(jù)是什么？你認(rèn)為它的意見對于組織戰(zhàn)略重要嗎？人力資源與組織發(fā)展有何關(guān)聯(lián)？ACase:TheStrategyofPanasonic

由于松下公司很多收入來自產(chǎn)品出口，因此他預(yù)測日元的價值與公司的銷量之間存在很強(qiáng)的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。當(dāng)日元升值時，松下的產(chǎn)品就會變得相對昂貴，從而直接抑制市場的需求，進(jìn)而影響公司對日本勞動力的需求。1988年，松下人力資源部估計日元價值五年內(nèi)將升值30%，他們估計，如果不采取任何措施公司將遭受內(nèi)部勞動力過剩的困擾。因此，公司決定不在國內(nèi)拓展業(yè)務(wù)，而是在世界各地建立“出口中心”，分別到馬來西亞、中國、美國去設(shè)計和生產(chǎn)電視機(jī)和空調(diào)。到1995年，事實(shí)證明這一決策有效地發(fā)展了公司的海外市場，同時避免了日元升值給公司造成的損失，而那些沒有預(yù)測到這一情況的公司不得不開始裁員。ACase:通用電氣醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)的戰(zhàn)略

1998年夏美國全國失業(yè)率下降到4.7%，降至25年來最低點(diǎn)。對雇主而言，一方面這意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)需求的上升，另一方面也意味著人力資源短缺。據(jù)一項300家金融公司、高科技公司、制造業(yè)公司及管理咨詢公司的調(diào)查，4/5的公司認(rèn)為只有找到所需人才（大約是目前員工的兩倍以上），他們才能增加收益。再拿經(jīng)濟(jì)中對高技能工人的需求來看，市場對工程類畢業(yè)生需求強(qiáng)大以至于該類人員失業(yè)率低于1%。根據(jù)美國信息技術(shù)協(xié)會的估計，在該行業(yè)存在19萬個職位空缺。由于大部分在嬰兒爆炸使其出生的人在新年伊始就逐漸步入退休年齡，因而認(rèn)為勞動力短缺會在短期消失的想法顯然不太現(xiàn)實(shí)。通用電氣醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)將此看成一種獲取競爭優(yōu)勢的機(jī)會，不僅填補(bǔ)了每一個高技術(shù)職位空缺，而且將雇用成本降低了20%，將填補(bǔ)一個職位空缺所需時間減少了30%，同時將雇用工作的失敗率降低了50%。

具體做法：1、通過學(xué)徒培養(yǎng)計劃培養(yǎng)高績效員工；2、為強(qiáng)調(diào)招募過程的競爭性，公司由現(xiàn)有雇員推薦過去曾在公司工作的優(yōu)秀同事，一方面強(qiáng)化了公司競爭力，同時削弱競爭對手的實(shí)力；3、對網(wǎng)站主頁進(jìn)行設(shè)計，只要點(diǎn)擊網(wǎng)頁“歡迎加入公司，您想要一份工作嗎？”就會躍入眼簾；4、把招募努力瞄準(zhǔn)失業(yè)率高的外國移民，為每個雇傭者提供15天強(qiáng)化英語課程。TheneedforHRPisduetothesignificantleadtime(間隔時間)thatnormallyexistsbetweentherecognitionoftheneedtofillajob(識別空缺崗位)andthesecuringofaqualifiedpersontofillthatneed(填補(bǔ)空缺崗位).3-1-3TheFunctionsofHRP（2）GoodHRPcanbringbenefitsEffectiveHRPcanhelpreduceturnover(流動)bykeepingemployeesapprisedoftheircareeropportunities(職業(yè)發(fā)展機(jī)會)withinthecompany.EffectiveHRPreducesturnoverandincreaseslong-termsuccess.3-2TheProcessofHRPStep1:Determiningtheimpactoftheorganization’sobjectivesonspecificorganizationalunits.Step2:DeterminingLaborDemandStep3:DeterminingLaborSupplyStep4:DeterminingLaborSurplusorShortage3-2-1DeterminingOrganizationalObjectives3-2-2ForecastingHRNeedsFactorsforforecastingHRneeds:Theexpecteddemand(預(yù)期需求)forproductorserviceEstimatethesizeofthestaff(員工規(guī)模)requiredtoachievethisvolumeProjectedturnover預(yù)期流動(asaresultofresignations辭職orterminations合同終止)QualityandskillsofyouremployeesStrategicdecisionstoupgrade(提升)thequalityofproductsTechnologicalandotherchangesresultinginincreasedproductivityFinancialresourcesavailabletoyourdepartment(本部門可獲得的經(jīng)濟(jì)資源)

3-2-3ForecastingPersonnelSupply

ForecastingtheSupplyofInsideCandidates:Promotions晉升Transfers調(diào)動Retires退休Resignations辭職Terminations合同終止Deaths傷亡Discharges解雇ForecastingtheSupplyofOutsideCandidates:GeneralEconomicConditions總體經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢就業(yè)率/失業(yè)率LocalMarketConditions地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況組織所在地的就業(yè)水平、就業(yè)觀念、消費(fèi)水平；組織所在地的吸引力（住房、交通、生活、氣候）組織所在地人才競爭狀況；OccupationalMarketConditions勞動力市場條件國家HR增長狀況（人口結(jié)構(gòu)、人口總量）國家HR政策（勞動時間、法定勞動年齡）各類院校畢業(yè)生規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)（教育政策)行業(yè)薪酬水平與競爭狀況3-2-4DeterminingLaborSurplusorShortage（1）StrategiesforReducinganExpectedLaborSurplusOptionSpeedHumanSuffering

1.Downsizing2.Payreductions3.Demotions4.Transfers5.Worksharing6.Hiringfreeze7.Naturalattrition8.Earlyretirement9.RetrainingFastFastFastFastFastSlowSlowSlowSlowHighHighHighModerateModerateLowLowLowLowDownsizingDownsizingistheplannedeliminationoflargenumbersofpersonneldesignedtoenhanceorganizationalcompetitiveness.Reasonsfordownsizinginclude:needtoreducelaborcoststechnologicalchangesreduceneedforlabormergersandacquisitionsreducebureaucraticoverheadorganizationschoosetochangethelocationofwheretheydobusinessEffectsofDownsizingStudiesshowthatfirmsthatannounceadownsizingcampaignshowworse,ratherthanbetterfinancialperformance.Reasonsinclude:Thelong-termeffectsofanimproperlymanageddownsizingeffortcanbenegative.Manydownsizingcampaignsletgoofpeoplewhoturnouttobeirreplaceableassets.Employeeswhosurvivethestaffpurgesoftenbecomenarrow-minded,self-absorbed,andrisk-averseEarlyRetirementProgramsTheaverageageoftheU.S.workforceisincreasing.Babyboomersarenotretiringearlyforseveralreasons:improvedhealthofolderpeopleafearthatSocialSecuritywillbecutmandatoryretirementisoutlawedManyemployerstrytoinducevoluntaryattritionamongolder workersthroughearly retirementincentiveprograms.EmployingTemporaryWorkersHiringtemporaryworkershelpseliminatealaborshortage.Temporaryemploymentaffordsfirmstheflexibilityneededtooperateefficientlyinthefaceofswingsindemand.Otheradvantagesinclude:temporaryworkersfreeafirmfrommanyadministrativetasksandfinancialburdenstemporaryworkersareoftentimestestedbyatemporaryagencymanytemporaryagenciestrainemployeesbeforesendingthemtoemployeesOutsourcingandOffshoringOutsourcingisanorganization’suseofanoutsideorganizationforabroadsetofservices.Offshoringisaspecialcaseofoutsourcingwherethejobsthatmoveactuallyleaveonecountryandgotoanother.Tohelpensurethesuccessofoutsourcing:outsourceonlythosejobsthatarerepetitive,predictable,andeasilytrained.Chooseanoutsourcingvendorthatislargeandestablished.Jobsthatareproprietaryorrequiretightsecurityshouldnotbeoutsourced.Itisagoodideatostartsmallandmonitorconstantly.AffirmativeActionPlanningItisimportanttoplanforvarioussubgroupswithinalaborforce.Acomparisonoftheproportionofworkersinprotectedsubgroupswiththeproportionthateachsubgrouprepresentsiscalledaworkforceutilizationreview.Thestepsrequiredtoexecuteanaffirmativeactionplanareidenticaltothestepsinthegenericplanningprocessdiscussedearlier.3-2-4DeterminingLaborSurplusorShortage(2)StrategiesforAvoidinganExpectedLaborShortageOptionSpeedHumanSuffering

1.Overtime2.Temporaryemployees3.Outsourcing4.Retrainedtransfers5.Turnoverreductions6.Newexternalhires7.TechnologicalinnovationFastFastFastSlowSlowSlowSlowHighHighHighHighModerateLowLowOrganizationalandHumanResourcePlanning(p125)3-3TheForecastingMethods3-3-1MethodsofForecastingHumanResourceNeedsManagerialjudgment經(jīng)驗(yàn)預(yù)測法Managerialestimates管理估計法Delphitechnique德爾斐技術(shù)Scenarioanalysis企業(yè)遠(yuǎn)景分析（brainstorming）Mathematicallybasedmethods/StatisticalModelingTechniquesTrendanalysis(e.g.Timeseriesanalysis)Ratioanalysis(e.g.Personnelratio,Productivityratio)Regressionanalysis(e.g.Scatterplot)UsingComputerstoForecastPersonnelRequirementsTechnique1. Time series analysis2. Personnel ratios3.Productivity ratios4.Regression analysisDescriptionPaststaffinglevels(insteadofworkloadindicators)areusedtoprojectfuturehumanresourcerequirements.Paststaffinglevelsareexaminedtoisolateseasonalandcyclicalvariations,long-termtrends,andrandommovements.Long-termtrendsarethenextrapolatedorprojectedusingamovingaverage,exponentialsmoothing,orregressiontechnique.Pastpersonneldataareexaminedtodeterminehistoricalrelationshipsamongthenumberofemployeesinvariousjobsorjobcategories.Regressionanalysisorproductivityratiosarethenusedtoprojecteithertotalorkeygrouphumanresourcerequirements,andpersonnelratiosareusedtoallocatetotalrequirementstovariousjobcategoriesortoestimaterequirementsfornon-keygroups.Historicaldataareusedtoexaminepastlevelsofaproductivityindex,Workload

P=NumberofpeopleWhereconstant,orsystematic,relationshipsarefound,humanresourcerequirementscanbecomputedbydividingpredictedworkloadsbyP.Pastlevelsofvariousworkloadindicators,suchassales,productionlevels,andvalueadded,areexaminedforstatisticalrelationshipswithstaffinglevels.Wheresufficientlystrongrelationshipsarefound存在顯著相關(guān)關(guān)系的地方,aregression(ormultipleregression)modelisderived建立回歸模型.Forecastedlevelsoftherelatedindicator(s)areenteredintotheresultingmodelandusedtocalculatetheassociatedlevelofhumanresourcerequirements.StatisticalModelingTechniquesUsedtoForecastHumanResourceNeedsTimeseriesanalysis例1:某公司已知過去12年的HR數(shù)量，要預(yù)測第13年的HR數(shù)量年度123456789101112人數(shù)510480490540570600640720770820840930

例2:芝加哥某醫(yī)院現(xiàn)有病床500張，預(yù)備在今后5年內(nèi)將床位擴(kuò)大到1200張，護(hù)理部主任和HRM經(jīng)理受命預(yù)測注冊護(hù)士的需求量。圖：經(jīng)調(diào)查當(dāng)?shù)蒯t(yī)院規(guī)模與注冊護(hù)士數(shù)量之間的關(guān)系200240260400470500500600620700660820900860RegressionanalysisDeterminingtheRelationshipBetweenHospitalSizeandNumberofNurses20040060080010001200140020040060080010001200(1210)HospitalSize(No.ofBeds)NumberofRegisteredNursesExercises：某學(xué)校要預(yù)測未來五年內(nèi)教師人數(shù)的變化，請思考可以采用什么預(yù)測學(xué)校教師人數(shù)？某企業(yè)原有總經(jīng)理4名，部門經(jīng)理12名，其他員工120名。一年后，1名總經(jīng)理退休，1名總經(jīng)理辭職，部門經(jīng)理退休2名，此至3名，其他員工退休10名，辭職5名。如果該企業(yè)規(guī)模保持不變，如何編制HRP？某大型廚房和電器分銷商期望10年中銷售額從150萬增加到225萬。在審核外部環(huán)境時，他注意到當(dāng)?shù)丨h(huán)境正在變化：許多新雇員進(jìn)入勞動力市場；人口趨于老化，由于子女離家，許多家庭變成空巢家庭；許多年輕人了與獨(dú)身享受個人空間；建筑和房地產(chǎn)市場穩(wěn)中有升，價格穩(wěn)定。該分銷商要預(yù)測10年內(nèi)對安裝工的需求。由于安裝工要求在課堂外具備8個月的在職培訓(xùn)，所以需要準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測?？偨?jīng)理向在未來使用自己的安裝工而不再依賴外部昂貴的臨時雇傭。這就使得HRP需要通過確定銷售額與所要求的安裝工數(shù)目之間的關(guān)系去決定HR需求。目前有同行5家公司的情況如圖：1001502002503004791517銷售額安裝工要求：把這些數(shù)字畫在紙上，估計一條回歸線。使用該回歸線預(yù)測225萬的銷量需要多少安裝工。如果該行業(yè)上述趨勢不變，你有何建議？單獨(dú)使用該信息進(jìn)行預(yù)測有無危險？還需考慮什么因素？3-3-2MethodsofForecastingHRSupply1、ForecastingtheSupplyofInsiderCandidates:SkillsInventory（QualificationsInventories）技能清單ManagementInventory管理者清單AnticipatingChangesinPersonnel預(yù)期人員變化personnelinventoryanddevelopmentrecord員工儲備與開發(fā)記錄personnelreplacementcharts人員替換圖positionreplacementcards職位替代卡Successionplanning繼任規(guī)劃Markovanalysis馬爾可夫分析ComputerizedInformationSystems計算機(jī)信息系統(tǒng)HumanResource盤點(diǎn)法對現(xiàn)有企業(yè)內(nèi)HR的質(zhì)量、數(shù)量、結(jié)構(gòu)和各職位上的分布狀況進(jìn)行核查，以確切掌握人員擁有量。企業(yè)規(guī)模小時，核查迅速有效，適用于短期預(yù)測；企業(yè)規(guī)模大、結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜時，需依賴計算機(jī)信息系統(tǒng)，由于該方法是靜態(tài)的，不能反映HR擁有量未來的變化。Qualificationsinventoriescontainsummarydatasuchaseachcurrentemployee’sperformancerecord,educationalbackground,andpromotabilitySkillsInventoryFormUsedbyPPGIndustriesHumanResource替代法通過記錄各個員工的工作績效、晉升的可能性和所需要的訓(xùn)練等內(nèi)容，由此來確定每個關(guān)鍵職位的接替人選，評價接替人選目前的工作情況和是否達(dá)到提升的要求，確定企業(yè)發(fā)展需要，并將個人的職業(yè)目標(biāo)與組織目標(biāo)相互結(jié)合。PersonnelreplacementchartsshowthepresentperformanceandpromotabilityforeachpotentialreplacementforimportantpositionsSimpleOrganizationReplacementChart職位層次GJSY離職高層G0.800.20中層J0.100.700.20技術(shù)S0.050.800.050.10操作Y0.150.650.20職位層次初期人數(shù)GJSY離職高層G40328中層J8085616技術(shù)S120696612操作Y1602410432馬爾可夫分析——通過具體歷史數(shù)據(jù)的收集，找出組織過去人事變動的規(guī)律，由此推測未來的人事變動趨勢，其基本假設(shè)是組織中員工流動方向與概率基本保持不變。例：某公司人力資源供給分析2