戰(zhàn)略報(bào)告－摩根斯坦利英文

PresentationtotheAutomotiveNewsWorldCongressStephenJ.Girsky

January2004DisclosuresAnalystCertificationAnalystCertificationThefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:StephenJ.Girsky.ImportantUSRegulartoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompaniesTheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyMorganStanley&Co.Incorporated(“MorganStanley”).AsofNovember28,2003,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinthisreport:Delphi,GeneralMotors,GoodyearTire&Rubber,JohnsonControls,MagnaIntlInc.,TBCandTowerAutomotive.Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleymanagedorco-managedapublicofferingofsecuritiesofDaimlerChryslerAG,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,StandardMotorProductsandTenneco.Withinthelast12months,MorganStanley,MorganStanleyoranaffiliatehasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAftermarketTechnology,AmericanAxleandMfg.,BorgWarnerInc.,DaimlerChryslerAG,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,StandardMotorProducts,SuperiorIndustries,Tenneco,TowerAutomotiveandVisteonCorporation.Inthenext3months,MorganStanleyexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAftermarketTechnology,AmericanAxleandMfg.,ArvinMeritor,AutoNation,BorgWarnerInc.,DaimlerChryslerAG,DanaCorp.,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,GenuinePartsCo.,GoodyearTire&Rubber,JohnsonControls,LearCorp.,LithiaMotors,MagnaIntlInc.,StandardMotorProducts,SuperiorIndustries,Tenneco,TowerAutomotive,UnitedAutoGroupandVisteonCorporation.Theresearchanalysts,strategist,orresearchassociatesprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationoftheresearchreporthavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingqualityofresearch,investorclientfeedback,stockpicking,competitivefactors,firmrevenuesandinvestmentbankingrevenues.MorganStanley&Co.IncorporatedmakesamarketinthesecuritiesofAftermarketTechnology,Delphi,DuraAutomotive,Ford,GeneralMotors,MagnaIntl.,TBCandTowerAutomotive.GlobalStockRatingsDistribution(asofDecember31,2003)(Continued)DisclosuresDisclosuresMorganStanleyisinvolvedinmanybusinessesthatmayrelatetocompaniesmentionedinthisreport.Thesebusinessesincludespecializedtrading,riskarbitrageandotherproprietarytrading,fundmanagement,investmentservicesandinvestmentbanking.MorganStanleymakeseveryefforttousereliable,comprehensiveinformation,butwemakenorepresentationthatitisaccurateorcomplete.Wehavenoobligationtotellyouwhenopinionsorinformationinthisreportchangeapartfromwhenweintendtodiscontinueresearchcoverageofsubjectcompany.ReportspreparedbyMorganStanleyresearchpersonnelarebasedonpublicinformation.Factsandviewspresentedinthisreporthavenotbeenreviewedby,andmaynotreflectinformationknownto,professionalsinotherMorganStanleybusinessareas,includinginvestmentbankingpersonnel.Thevalueofandincomefromyourinvestmentsmayvarybecauseofchangesininterestratesorforeignexchangerates,securitiespricesormarketindexes,operationalorfinancialconditionsofcompaniesorotherfactors.Theremaybetimelimitationsontheexerciseofoptionsorotherrightsinyoursecuritiestransactions.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformance.Estimatesoffutureperformancearebasedonassumptionsthatmaynotberealized.ThispublicationisdisseminatedinJapanbyMorganStanleyJapanLimitedand/orMorganStanleyNipponSecuritiesLimited;inSingaporebyorganStanleyDeanWitterAsia(Singapore)Pte.,regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore;inAustraliabyMorganStanleyDeanWitterAustraliaLimitedA.B.N.67003734576,alicenseddealer,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents;incertainprovincesofCanadabyMorganStanleyCanadaLimited,whichhasapprovedof,andhasagreedtotakeresponsibilityfor,thecontentsofthispublicationinCanada;inSpainbyMorganStanley,S.V.,S.A.,aMorganStanleygroupcompany,whichissupervisedbytheSpanishSecuritiesMarketsCommission(CNMV)andstatesthatthisdocumenthasbeenwrittenanddistributedinaccordancewiththerulesofconductapplicabletofinancialresearchasestablishedunderSpanishregulations;intheUnitedStatesbyMorganStanley&Co.IncorporatedandMorganStanleyDWInc.,whichacceptresponsibilityforitscontents;andintheUnitedKingdom,thispublicationisapprovedbyMorganStanley&Co.InternationalLimited,solelyforthepurposesofsection21oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000.PrivateU.K.investorsshouldobtaintheadviceoftheirMorganStanley&Co.InternationalLimitedrepresentativeabouttheinvestmentconcerned.Thetrademarksandservicemarkscontainedhereinarethepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.Third-partydataprovidersmakenowarrantiesorrepresentationsofanykindrelatingtotheaccuracy,completeness,ortimelinessofthedatatheyprovideandshallnothaveliabilityforanydamagesofanykindrelatingtosuchdata.TheGlobalIndustryClassificationStandard("GICS")wasdevelopedbyandistheexclusivepropertyofMSCIandS&P.Thisreportoranyportionhereofmaynotbereprinted,soldorredistributedwithoutthewrittenconsentofMorganStanley.Additionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableonrequest.OverviewAutoOutlook:Sameproblems;LessofthemGlobalDilemma:Mostparticipantsspendingforgrowthyettheindustrydoesnotgrow.Demandgrowthislikelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery.Competitivepressuresarelikelytoremaindifficult.Weakerdollarcouldlevelprovidesomeoffset.Higherratescreateriskofweakerdemand,weakermixandlowerfinancecompanyearnings.BigThreeopportunity:Actualqualityisbetterthanperceivedquality.GlobalLightVehicleSales:SlowGrowthCAGR1.2%Source:LMC~J.D.Power&MorganStanleyResearchGlobalSalesForecasts:2003-2004Source:GlobalInsight&MorganStanleyResearch*NoteforecastsarederivedfromGlobalInsightU.S.Sales16.7mmUnitsFY03E16.8mmUnitsFY04ESource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchJapaneseSAAR5.6mmUnitsFY03E5.7mmUnitsFY04ESource:MorganStanleyResearchWesternEuropeanSAAR14.1mmFY03E14.2mmFY04ESource:MorganStanleyResearchGlobalExcessCapacityat25%-30%

or20mmunitsSource:Autofacts&MorganStanleyResearchCapEx/D&AFY2003E:

OEMsSpendingforGrowth

Source:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearch*AdjustedtofitscaleZeroSumGameGlobalDilemma:Mostparticipantsarespendingforgrowth,yettheindustrydoesnotgrow.Slowgrowth&excesscapacitysuggestdeflation/revenuepressuresarelikelytocontinue.Noteverybodycanbeawinner.Winnerswillbelowcostproducerswhodeliveragoodproductthatconsumersarewillingtopayfor.ModestDemandGrowthDemandgrowthislikelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery:Autosalesdidnotweakenmateriallyinthemostrecentrecessionandthus,significantpent-updemandwasnevercreated.Thenumberofoff-leasevehiclesisfallingsharply–fewerconsumersarebeingforcedbacktoadealertobuyorleaseanewvehicle.Extendedfinancingtermsarelikelytoprolongvehicleturnover.Economicconditionsappearmixed.LightVehicleSalesTrendLineDemandSource:MorganStanleyResearchLightVehicleSalesCycle:TroughtoTroughSource:R.L.Polk,GlobalInsight&MorganStanleyResearchWeightedMedianAgeofaVehiclevs.Sales1YearLeadCorrelation77.6%Source:Polk&MorganStanleyResearchOffLeaseVehiclesBegintoDeclineSource:Manheim&MorganStanleyResearchFewerConsumersBeingForcedBacktotheDealershipsAverageMaturityofVehicleLoans(months)Source:FederalReserveBoard&MorganStanleyResearchTakingLongertoEstablishConsumerEquitySource:FRB&MorganStanleyResearchEcon投omic典Con辭diti券onsBet燭ter廢th努an箱the粥yw務(wù)ere趟,b號ut妨sti粘ll漿not腳ro鋤bus籍tSou飾rce陰:C忘PI昌&M臥org蜂an思Sta河nle瓣yR揀ese仇arc某hPeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03InterestRatesConsumerConfidenceGasolinePricesUsedCarPricesEmploymentAff哈ord攔abi陵lit箏yN澡ear熔25賠Ye鐮ar串Bes日tNumb齒ero仇fWe傳eks共ofI蘇ncom尼eto提Pur蛇chas梳ea靈Vehi習(xí)cleSou披rce妻:F削RB獄&M妹org征an透Sta皺nle鄭yR師ese江arc介hInte屑nse冊Comp租etit央ionCom擋pet診iti跨ve廁pre與ssu蜘res熟ar岔el草ike衣ly莫to譽(yù)rem瓜ain更di奶ffi固cul先t:Cap祖aci足ty論gro罵wth笑to耀co生nti朽nue預(yù)in室20襪04.Pri眉cin宮gi菊sl詢ike漂ly走to辦rem介ain殘di燙ffi候cul里ta目lth競oug披ha遙we圖ak辦dol呈lar飲ma拼yp羞rov否ide江a隱mod限est鉆of產(chǎn)fse釣t.Mark孫ets歪hare延pre央ssur瓣est兼oco球ntin擾uea舌swe福ll.NAC賠apac餡ity鵲Addi芬tion芳s,D壁espi翅t(yī)eF略lat彈Sls場Outl縮慧ookSou恒rce勵:C互omp自any詞da蒸ta護(hù)&M擱org愚an鑄Sta泄nle婆yR伍ese劉arc緒h20052003FordNissan(122)2503082004FordGM(211)(98)80=100,000unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)18020030NetIncreaseOf853,000UnitsorRoughly5.1%ofNAsales2006Toyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai2356Exce趟ssC鵝apac青ity腦&Mo寒reI業(yè)sOn排The竹WayEver栗y1%拴Pt.您of熱Mark汪etS端hare滋Tra見nsla超tes座into出$1.兇0bn厭inP胸rofi圣ts853托,00設(shè)0U持nit炒so陪fA乞dde同dC顫apa胸cit著yi湖s5摩.1%懂of遞NA練Ca丙pac我ity哭,or$議5bn拉inP辯reta挖xPr甩ofit師sNAP泉reta負(fù)xPr溫ofitBig望Th臭reeFY0割3E班(in涌MM楊)$1,9晌71Sour瀉ce:陜Morg愁anS喊tanl因eyR致esea秋rch乳Esti蛇mate隙sReve漿nue吩Pres礎(chǔ)sure蹄sWo堆rst晝Sinc哭e19弟70’sNew襖Ca甚rC夏PI逐vs.職Do授mes思tic但Li須ght譽(yù)Ve親hic購le紹Sal甜esSou結(jié)rce地:C限PI莊&M必org狼an支Sta倡nle鐮yR園ese翻arc迎h(huán)Y/Y師Ch究ang居ei樹nM網(wǎng)ont俱hly擔(dān)Ne原wC親ar憲CPISour旦ce:咽CPI旁&Mo棒rgan享Sta銀nley歌Res禮earc怨hPri顧ce閥Red慌uct巴ion墾sP梁res星sur袖eM艙anu噴fac宰tur缸ersEve吃ry菠1%站Dec毒lin斤ei曉nP闖ric拒es鬼is房誠Wor黃th$1.0裁bna打tGM$85寫0mm采at梁Fo項(xiàng)rd$55渣0mm消at兄DC真XSou齒rce則:M役org孤an郊Sta伯nle強(qiáng)yR飲ese烤arc辜hBig心Thre其eMa撇rket羞Sha歪reC愿onti饞nues敵to果Slid暑e76.戴0%60.嗎2%61.7掀%Ever油y1%趣Poi隙nto留fSh相are造isW業(yè)orth每Rou競ghly擱$1b旁nin原Pro每fitSour矮ce:罰Auto案data去&M踩orga阻nSt座anle差yRe楊sear坑chMark丟etS夢hare熔Win瘡ners斥/L戴oser角s–委FY03Sour奧ce:浪Auto娛data瓦&M復(fù)orga昏nSt印anle撈yRe俗sear柳chBig他Thre漏eSh煩are艘ofS蠻ales幸by和Segm栽ent:鞋F(xiàn)Y劣-03竄vs.組FY-0漫2Sour怎ce:罷Auto僵data洋&M弊o(hù)rga蠅nSt礙anle賴yRe漿sear叼chUS養(yǎng)Dol謙lar銜pe芹rE慕uro舞:J很an春03友-P淘res善entSou牲rce眨:F示act蒜Set正&蛛Mor擊gan起St蝕anl唐ey慢Res骨ear己chJapa臨nese繞Yen池vs.旁U.S填.Do腿llarSou彈rce俱:F重act躁Set畏&速M(fèi)or腸gan最St與anl辦ey狡Res才ear癥chYen里to補(bǔ)US懇Do喇lla騎rP承ric墳eS戀ens但iti望vit糧y:構(gòu)YTD校03Sour省ce:洽Comp姜any霜Data衛(wèi)&M俯orga排nSt俘anle茄yRe些sear鞠chNot紐奉e:薦*I蹄ncl圍ude周sA零cur雷a,犬Inf駁ini言ti,蜂Le叔xusWea返ker但Do腳lla快rC苗oul虎dH嶼elp米a全Lit集tleSou離rce屑:M聯(lián)org階an公Sta棗nle煉yR事ese接arc躬hGlo互bal硬Op杯era礙tin單gM槐arg夜ins直FY踏02Sour揚(yáng)ce:搶Comp拿any亡data悔&M幼o(hù)rga葉nSt糊anle偵yRe遷sear汗ch*Mor帳gan葡Stan億ley幸Esti室mate蓄sExcl楊udin中g(shù)Pe上nsio硬n&搏OPEB忌Exp他ense欲for忙the覺Big市Thr云eePors距cheNiss衣anBMWHon物daToy勿otaHyu緞nda構(gòu)iGMPeu喬geo碗tKiaVWDCXRen皇aul總tFor刃dFia僅t16.4好%10.6故%8.9%8.4%8.1%6.1%5.7醋%5.0%4.7%4.0享%3.8%1.7%1.8漁%-6.露2%Hig膊her金Ra隱tes朵Co紗uld崇be晴a伏Neg暑ati監(jiān)veHig鋤her近ra童tes畝cr臟eat紡er本isk儀of希we曠ake救rd予ema頃nd,雞we劉ake每rm缸ix皂and散lo帽wer蠶fi掙nan便ce律com定pan肺ye貍arn賢ing章sExt所end樓ed港ter蒼ms扛sug興ges糠tl希ong殼er化rep鹿lac去eme侮nt撒rat既es.Ever害y1%版inc層reas彩ein貢fin境anci杏ngr港ates墊on關(guān)5-ye繞arl悠oans銳is穩(wěn)wort全h$7也30-7參50p玻erv趁ehic絲式le.Aut崇oF評ina盟nce撿Te急rms浮:F跡all嗽20麻01居vs.否No奪wSour叫ce:冰FRB限&Mo賭rgan設(shè)Sta貌nley列Res廚earc姨hGMA粉C/惹FM什CC劇Bor健row針ing抵Co軍stsSour罪ce:壤FRB良&Mo奏rgan余Sta點(diǎn)nley艷Res親earc潤hBig啊3另Opp止ort婆uni貢ty:兆A榨ctu臉al欠Qua燥lit掩yi滴sB玩ett億er妄tha間nP喜erc鳥eiv替ed悲Qua毀lit撈ySour雨ce:窯JDP灘ower職,CN油W&寶Morg守anS糧tanl列eyR敵esea喚rchThe泊Big館Thre燃e:P頭osit刪ives蓄&N明egat浸ivesEac咬hC穴omp帥any穴Fa頁ces蛋Un憲iqu跌eC瞞hal增len著ges祥:GMh兼aso勾pera門tion銅alm挪omen靠tum搜a(bǔ)nd運(yùn)has痰made征sig咬nifi愚cant棋str蔽ides臭rel搜a(bǔ)tiv落eto梨its貝fix法edl杠egac類yco躲sts.Ford塔’ss養(yǎng)hare句is流like覆lyt辦ore醉main隆und職erp狂ress皇ure.躍Wh江ile農(nóng)earn宋ings檔and如cos笨tcu殿ttin賴gha聚veb跌een兩stro爺ng,予cash耍flo孟wne倒eds圈toc介atch堵up.DCX淺cont惑inue待sto葉str寺ugg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