TED英語演講：愛情的三大秘訣

1、TED英語演講：愛情的三大秘訣TEDUTechnology,Entertainment,Design（科技、娛樂、設(shè)計(jì)）的縮寫，這個(gè)會(huì)議的宗旨是"用思想的力量來改變世界"。TED演講的特點(diǎn)是毫無繁雜冗長的專業(yè)講座，觀點(diǎn)響亮，開門見山，種類繁多，看法新穎。而且還是非常好的英語口語聽力練習(xí)材料，建議堅(jiān)持學(xué)習(xí)。下面是小編為大家收集關(guān)于TE讀語演講：愛情的三大秘訣，歡迎借鑒參考。演講者：HannahFry演講稿TodayIwanttotalktoyouaboutthemathematicsoflove.Now,Ithinkthatwecanallagreethatmathemati

2、ciansarefamouslyexcellentatfindinglove.Butit'snotjustbecauseofourdashingpersonalities,superiorconversationalskillsandexcellentpencilcases.It'salsobecausewe'veactuallydoneanawfullotofworkintothemathsofhowtofindtheperfectpartner.今天我想要和大家談?wù)勱P(guān)于愛情的數(shù)學(xué)。我想大家都同意數(shù)學(xué)家在尋找真愛上特別在行。但那并不是是因?yàn)槲覀兙Τ渑娴男愿?，超凡的?duì)

3、話技巧，和極好的筆盒。也是因?yàn)槲覀冋娴幕嗽S多時(shí)間精力在數(shù)學(xué)上，計(jì)算如何找到完美的伴侶。Now,inmyfavoritepaperonthesubject,whichisentitled,"WhyIDon'tHaveaGirlfriend"-PeterBackustriestoratehischancesoffindinglove.Now,Peter'snotaverygreedyman.OfalloftheavailablewomenintheUK,allPeter'slookingforissomebodywholivesnearhim,some

4、bodyintherightagerange,somebodywithauniversitydegree,somebodyhe'slikelytogetonwellwith,somebodywho'slikelytobeattractive,somebodywho'slikelytofindhimattractive.Andcomesupwithanestimateof26womeninthewholeoftheUK.It'snotlookingverygood,isitPeter?Now,justtoputthatintoperspective,that

5、9;sabout400timesfewerthanthebestestimatesofhowmanyintelligentextraterrestriallifeformsthereare.AnditalsogivesPetera1in285,000chanceofbumpingintoanyoneofthesespecialladiesonagivennightout.I'dliketothinkthat'swhymathematiciansdon'treallybothergoingonnightsoutanymore.現(xiàn)在，在此學(xué)科中我最愛的論文，名為“為什么我沒

6、有女友”（笑聲）PeterBackus試著計(jì)算他尋得真愛的機(jī)會(huì)?，F(xiàn)在，Peter不是一個(gè)非常貪心的人。在英國所有適宜的女性對(duì)象中，彼得所看的，就只是那個(gè)住在他附近的對(duì)象，某個(gè)處于適宜的年齡階段，某個(gè)擁有大學(xué)文憑，某個(gè)他很有可能相處地不錯(cuò)的對(duì)象，某個(gè)有魅力的女子，以及某個(gè)認(rèn)為他也富有魅力的對(duì)象。（笑聲）結(jié)果他估計(jì)在全英國大概有26位此類女性。這看來很不妙，不是嗎，彼得？我們好好思考一下這件事，在無數(shù)聰明外星生命形式存在的情況下，那是少于400倍數(shù)的估計(jì)呀。那也給了彼得一個(gè)在某晚遇見一個(gè)特別的女子28萬5千之1的機(jī)會(huì)。我寧愿想就是著那為什么數(shù)學(xué)家不再怎么想晚上出去約會(huì)了。Thethingistha

7、tIpersonallydon'tsubscribetosuchapessimisticview.BecauseIknow,justaswellasallofyoudo,thatlovedoesn'treallyworklikethat.Humanemotionisn'tneatlyorderedandrationalandeasilypredictable.ButIalsoknowthatthatdoesn'tmeanthatmathematicshasn'tgotsomethingthatitcanofferus,because,love,aswit

8、hmostoflife,isfullofpatternsandmathematicsis,ultimately,allaboutthestudyofpatterns.Patternsfrompredictingtheweathertothefluctuationsinthestockmarket,tothemovementoftheplanetsorthegrowthofcities.Andifwe'rebeinghonest,noneofthosethingsareexactlyneatlyorderedandeasilypredictable,either.BecauseIbeli

9、evethatmathematicsissopowerfulthatithasthepotentialtoofferusanewwayoflookingatalmostanything.Evensomethingasmysteriousaslove.Andso,totrytopersuadeyouofhowtotallyamazing,excellentandrelevantmathematicsis,Iwanttogiveyoumytopthreemathematicallyverifiabletipsforlove.重點(diǎn)是，我個(gè)人其實(shí)并不同意這種悲觀的看法。因?yàn)槲抑溃缤銈兯兴赖?/p>

10、，愛情并不是這樣發(fā)生的。人類的情感不是那樣地秩序井然，干凈利落，邏輯清晰，以及容易預(yù)測。但我也知道那并不意謂著數(shù)學(xué)無法提供幫助，因?yàn)閻矍?，如同生命中多?shù)的事物一般，充斥著許多規(guī)律，而數(shù)學(xué)，最終，就是那講求規(guī)律的學(xué)說。從預(yù)測天候，到預(yù)測股票市場的開高走低，到星球的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，或都市的發(fā)展。如果我們對(duì)自己誠實(shí)的話，上述那些東西，沒有一個(gè)是井然有序以及容易預(yù)測的。因?yàn)槲蚁嘈?，?shù)學(xué)的力量非常強(qiáng)大，以至于它讓我們得以以新方法重新看待任何事物。就算是和愛情一般神秘的東西也是。為了試著說服你們數(shù)學(xué)的神妙用處，我想要給大家三個(gè)最重要的在數(shù)學(xué)上可以驗(yàn)證的愛情秘訣。OK,soTopTip#1:Howtowinatonl

11、inedating.SomyfavoriteonlinedatingwebsiteisOkCupid,notleastbecauseitwasstartedbyagroupofmathematicians.Now,becausethey'remathematicians,theyhavebeencollectingdataoneverybodywhousestheirsiteforalmostadecade.Andthey'vebeentryingtosearchforpatternsinthewaythatwetalkaboutourselvesandthewaythatwe

12、interactwitheachotheronanonlinedatingwebsite.Andthey'vecomeupwithsomeseriouslyinterestingfindings.Butmyparticularfavoriteisthatitturnsoutthatonanonlinedatingwebsite,howattractiveyouaredoesnotdictatehowpopularyouare,andactually,havingpeoplethinkthatyou'reuglycanworktoyouradvantage.Letmeshowyo

13、uhowthisworks.InathankfullyvoluntarysectionofOkCupid,youareallowedtoratehowattractiveyouthinkpeopleareonascalebetweenoneandfive.Now,ifwecomparethisscore,theaveragescore,tohowmanymessagesaselectionofpeoplereceive,youcanbegintogetasenseofhowattractivenesslinkstopopularityonanonlinedatingwebsite.好，首先最重

14、要的秘技一：如何贏得線上交友的機(jī)會(huì)。我最愛的線上交友網(wǎng)站是OkCupid（網(wǎng)站名：好吧，丘比特），這并不僅僅因?yàn)檫@網(wǎng)站是由一群數(shù)學(xué)家所架設(shè)的。因?yàn)樗麄兪菙?shù)學(xué)家，他們已經(jīng)搜集了近乎這十年來所有他們網(wǎng)站使用者的資料。他們試著電子郵件尋找我們用英語上談?wù)摃r(shí)間和自己的方式的模式，以及我們和他人互動(dòng)的模式。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些重要的有趣結(jié)果。但我特別喜歡的結(jié)果之一是在線上交友網(wǎng)站上你的魅力程度并無法預(yù)測你的受歡迎程度，事實(shí)上，讓人們覺得你很丑可以讓你擁有優(yōu)勢。讓我向各位展示這是怎么一回事。在OkCupid的一個(gè)愿愿欄目中，你可以評(píng)價(jià)人們的魅力值，從1到5?，F(xiàn)在，如果我們比較這個(gè)分?jǐn)?shù)，平均分?jǐn)?shù)，有多少人收到信息

15、，你就可以開始理解在一個(gè)線上約會(huì)網(wǎng)站上魅力指數(shù)與受歡迎程度有關(guān)。ThisisthegraphtheOkCupidguyshavecomeupwith.Andtheimportantthingtonoticeisthatit'snottotallytruethatthemoreattractiveyouare,themoremessagesyouget.Butthequestionarisesthenofwhatisitaboutpeopleupherewhoaresomuchmorepopularthanpeopledownhere,eventhoughtheyhavethesames

16、coreofattractiveness?Andthereasonwhyisthatit'snotjuststraightforwardlooksthatareimportant.Soletmetrytoillustratetheirfindingswithanexample.SoifyoutakesomeonelikePortiadeRossi,forexample,everybodyagreesthatPortiadeRossiisaverybeautifulwoman.Nobodythinksthatshe'sugly,butshe'snotasupermodel

17、,either.IfyoucomparePortiadeRossitosomeonelikeSarahJessicaParker,now,alotofpeople,myselfincluded,Ishouldsay,thinkthatSarahJessicaParkerisseriouslyfabulousandpossiblyoneofthemostbeautifulcreaturestohaveeverhavewalkedonthefaceoftheEarth.Butsomeotherpeople,i.e.,mostoftheInternet.seemtothinkthatshelooks

18、abitlikeahorse.Now,IthinkthatifyouaskpeoplehowattractivetheythoughtJessicaParkerorPortiadeRossiwere,andyouaskthemtogivethemascorebetweenoneandfiveIreckonthatthey'daverageouttohaveroughlythesamescore.Butthewaythatpeoplewouldvotewouldbeverydifferent.SoPortia'sscoreswouldallbeclusteredaroundthe

19、fourbecauseeverybodyagreesthatshe'sverybeautiful,whereasSarahJessicaParkercompletelydividesopinion.There'dbeahugespreadinherscores.Andactuallyit'sthisspreadthatcounts.It'sthisspreadthatmakesyoumorepopularonanonlineInternetdatingwebsite.Sowhatthatmeansthenisthatifsomepeoplethinkthatyo

20、u'reattractive,you'reactuallybetteroffhavingsomeotherpeoplethinkthatyou'reamassiveminger.That'smuchbetterthaneverybodyjustthinkingthatyou'rethecutegirlnextdoor.這是OkCupid得到的圖表。一件重要的值得注意的事是并不是越有魅力的人，收到的信息越多。問題是，為什么上面的這些人比下面這些人要受歡迎得多，即便他們都有相同的魅力值？原因是，并不是直觀的外貌是重要的。讓我來談?wù)勊麄兊陌l(fā)現(xiàn)，以一個(gè)案例說明。

21、如果你拿PortiadeRossi為例，每個(gè)人都同意PortiadeRossi是個(gè)非常美麗的女人，沒有人覺得她丑，但她也不是超模。如果你拿某個(gè)人，比如莎拉杰西卡帕克（譯者注：欲望都市女主角）狀語從句：來她比較許多人，包括我自己，我應(yīng)該會(huì)說，SarahJessicaParker魅力極為出眾，有可能是地表上最美麗的物種之一。但許多其他人，比如，大多數(shù)的網(wǎng)友似乎都認(rèn)為她看起來像馬。（笑聲）如果你問人們他們覺得自己有多美，莎拉杰西卡帕克或波蒂亞德羅西你要他們給自己打分，從1到5,我猜他們也會(huì)大約。一個(gè)和大家都差不多的數(shù)字但是人們投票的方式各自不同。因此鮑西婭的分?jǐn)?shù)會(huì)聚集在4分左右，因?yàn)樗腥硕纪?，?/p>

22、非常美麗，然而人們對(duì)莎拉杰西卡帕克卻有截然不同的意見。她的分差懸殊很大。然而，事實(shí)上，就是那分差別具意義，那差異讓你在交友網(wǎng)站上受歡迎。所以那意味著如果有些人認(rèn)為你別具魅力，你最好有其他人認(rèn)為你很丑。那遠(yuǎn)優(yōu)于所有人認(rèn)為你的英文鄰家的女孩可愛。Now,Ithinkthisbeginstomakeabitmoresensewhenyouthinkintermsofthepeoplewhoaresendingthesemessages.Solet'ssaythatyouthinksomebody'sattractive,butyoususpectthatotherpeoplewon&

23、#39;tnecessarilybethatinterested.Thatmeansthere'slesscompetitionforyouandit'sanextraincentiveforyoutogetintouch.Whereascomparethattoifyouthinksomebodyisattractivebutyoususpectthateverybodyisgoingtothinkthey'reattractive.Well,whywouldyoubotherhumiliatingyourself,let'sbehonest?Buthere&

24、#39;swherethereallyinterestingpartcomes.Becausewhenpeoplechoosethepicturesthattheyuseonanonlinedatingwebsite,theyoftentrytominimizethethingsthattheythinksomepeoplewillfindunattractive.Theclassicexampleispeoplewhoare,perhaps,alittlebitoverweightdeliberatelychoosingaverycroppedphoto,orbaldmen,forexamp

25、le,deliberatelychoosingpictureswherethey'rewearinghats.Butactuallythisistheoppositeofwhatyoushoulddoifyouwanttobesuccessful.Youshouldreally,instead,playuptowhateveritisthatmakesyoudifferent,evenifyouthinkthatsomepeoplewillfinditunattractive.Becausethepeoplewhofancyyouarejustgoingtofancyyouanyway

26、,andtheunimportantloserswhodon't,well,theyonlyplayuptoyouradvantage.當(dāng)你們開始思考一下這些寄送信息的人的話，這開始變得合理些了。這么說吧，假設(shè)你認(rèn)為那個(gè)人很美，但你同時(shí)猜想其他人并不會(huì)和你有同樣的審美觀。那就意味著，你的競爭對(duì)手略少，這就給你增加了額外的動(dòng)機(jī)去與他/她認(rèn)識(shí)。與之相對(duì)的情況是你認(rèn)為某人很有吸引力，但你猜想所有其他的人都認(rèn)為那人很有吸引力，嗯,讓我們面對(duì)事實(shí)為什么要自取其辱呢呢？這就是最有趣的部分。因?yàn)楫?dāng)人們?nèi)ミx擇他們在交友網(wǎng)站上使用的照片時(shí)，他們總是試圖最小化其他人認(rèn)為不吸引人之處的可能性。最經(jīng)典的例子是

27、，那些體重略重的人故意選擇一個(gè)剪裁非常不正的照片，例如那些禿頂?shù)哪惺?故意去選擇他們帶著帽子的照片。但你的行為是與你的目標(biāo)相悖的，如果你想要在網(wǎng)上交友成功。你真的應(yīng)該，去選擇讓你看起來與眾不同的照片，即便你為某些人會(huì)對(duì)此失去興趣。因?yàn)槟切┫矚g你的人無論如何都會(huì)去喜歡你，而那些不重要的路人只是渲染你的優(yōu)勢。OK,TopTip#2:Howtopicktheperfectpartner.Solet'simaginethenthatyou'rearoaringsuccessonthedatingscene.Butthequestionarisesofhowdoyouthenconver

28、tthatsuccessintolonger-termhappiness,andinparticular,howdoyoudecidewhenistherighttimetosettledown?Nowgenerally,it'snotadvisabletojustcashinandmarrythefirstpersonwhocomesalongandshowsyouanyinterestatall.But,equally,youdon'treallywanttoleaveittoolongifyouwanttomaximizeyourchanceoflong-termhapp

29、iness.Asmyfavoriteauthor,JaneAusten,putsit,"Anunmarriedwomanofsevenandtwentycanneverhopetofeelorinspireaffectionagain."(Laughter)Thanksalot,Jane.Whatdoyouknowaboutlove?好了，最高秘訣2號(hào)：如何選擇完美的伴侶。讓我們想象你的約會(huì)精彩成功。但問題來了你如何將那成功的約會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)變成長期的快樂，尤其是，你要如何選擇在哪個(gè)時(shí)刻安定下來？一般來說，并建議人們立刻與第一個(gè)出現(xiàn)對(duì)你表達(dá)好感的人結(jié)婚。但是，一般來說，如果你想要最大

30、化你未來數(shù)十年幸?；橐龅臋C(jī)會(huì)，你也不愿等待太久。我最喜歡的作家簡奧斯汀這樣說，“一個(gè)未婚的27歲女子就別指望再能感受或激發(fā)愛情了。”(笑聲)這太嚴(yán)重了，簡。你對(duì)愛了解多少呢？Sothequestionisthen,howdoyouknowwhenistherighttimetosettledown,givenallthepeoplethatyoucandateinyourlifetime？Thankfully,there'saratherdeliciousbitofmathematicsthatwecanusetohelpusouthere,calledoptimalstoppingt

31、heory.Solet'simagine,then,thatyoustartdatingwhenyou're15andideally,you'dliketobemarriedbythetimethatyou're35.Andthere'sanumberofpeoplethatyoucouldpotentiallydateacrossyourlifetime,andthey'llbeatiovaryinglevelsofgoodness.Nowtherulesarethatonceyoucashinandgetmarried,youcan'

32、tlookaheadtoseewhatyoucouldhavehad,andequally,youcan'tgobackandchangeyourmind.Inmyexperienceatleast,Ifindthattypicallypeopledon'tmuchlikebeingrecalledyearsafterbeingpassedupforsomebodyelse,orthat'sjustme.那么問題來了，你怎么知道哪個(gè)時(shí)刻是該安定下來的時(shí)刻，畢竟生命中你有很多可能的對(duì)象？幸好，我們可以運(yùn)用一點(diǎn)兒數(shù)學(xué)來幫助我們計(jì)算解決這個(gè)問題，名叫“最優(yōu)停止理論那么讓我們來

33、想象一下，你在15歲的時(shí)候開始交往，理想狀態(tài)下，你在35歲的時(shí)候會(huì)結(jié)婚。你的人生中有很多潛在的約會(huì)對(duì)象，他們都有各自的優(yōu)點(diǎn)。規(guī)則是，你一旦跳進(jìn)婚姻，你就不能繼續(xù)前進(jìn)尋找你可能可以有的對(duì)象，你也不能回頭來改變你的主意。我個(gè)人的經(jīng)驗(yàn)看來，一般人們不希望在被拒絕又過了多年后被找回來，也許只有我這樣想。Sothemathsaysthenthatwhatyoushoulddointhefirst37percentofyourdatingwindow,youshouldjustrejecteverybodyasseriousmarriagepotential.Andthen,youshouldpickth

34、enextpersonthatcomesalongthatisbetterthaneverybodythatyou'veseenbefore.Sohere'stheexample.Nowifyoudothis,itcanbemathematicallyproven,infact,thatthisisthebestpossiblewayofmaximizingyourchancesoffindingtheperfectpartner.Nowunfortunately,Ihavetotellyouthatthismethoddoescomewithsomerisks.Forinst

35、ance,imagineifyourperfectpartnerappearedduringyourfirst37percent.Now,unfortunately,you'dhavetorejectthem.Now,ifyou'refollowingthemaths,I'mafraidnooneelsecomesalongthat'sbetterthananyoneyou'veseenbefore,soyouhavetogoonrejectingeveryoneanddiealone.Probablysurroundedbycats.nibblinga

36、tyourremains.告訴數(shù)學(xué)我們你應(yīng)該拒絕認(rèn)為會(huì)在狀語從句：你人生約會(huì)周期前37%寸段出現(xiàn)的任何人有嚴(yán)肅認(rèn)真的婚姻關(guān)系。接著，你要選擇下一個(gè)人，那個(gè)比你以前約會(huì)對(duì)象都好的人。這里舉幾例。如果你這么做，從數(shù)學(xué)證明來看可以認(rèn)為，事實(shí)上這可能是最好的選擇來最大化你找到完美伴侶的機(jī)會(huì)。現(xiàn)在不幸的是，我必須告訴你這個(gè)方法也是有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。比如，想象一下，你假設(shè)完美的伴侶出現(xiàn)在你約會(huì)歷程的前37%那就很不幸了，你會(huì)拒絕他們。如果你相信數(shù)學(xué)，恐怕你不會(huì)再找到比你以往見過更好的對(duì)象，你就會(huì)持續(xù)拒絕每個(gè)人然后孤獨(dú)終老。可能會(huì)被貓咪包圍一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)啃食你的遺骸。OK,anotherriskis,let'sim

37、agine,instead,thatthefirstpeoplethatyoudatedinyourfirst37percentarejustincrediblydull,boring,terriblepeople.That'sOK,becauseyou'reinyourrejectionphase,sothat'sfine,youcanrejectthem.Butthenimaginethenextpersontocomealongisjust12marginallylessboring,dullandterrible.thaneverybodythatyou'

38、;veseenbefore.Now,ifyouarefollowingthemaths,I'mafraidyouhavetomarrythem.andendupinarelationshipwhichis,frankly,suboptimal.Sorryaboutthat.ButIdothinkthatthere'sanopportunityhereforHallmarktocashinonandreallycaterforthismarket.AValentine'sDaycardlikethis."Mydarlinghusband,youaremargin

39、allylessterriblethanthefirst37percentofpeopleIdated."It'sactuallymoreromanticthanInormallymanage.好，另一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是，讓我們想象，相反的，你約會(huì)歷程前37%里第一個(gè)對(duì)象極度愚蠢，無聊又很糟糕。沒事，因?yàn)槟氵€在拒絕對(duì)象的階段，沒問題，你可以拒絕他們。但想象一下，下一個(gè)出現(xiàn)的人只是沒那么無聊，愚蠢比你以前的對(duì)象都略好那么一點(diǎn)兒。如果你遵循數(shù)學(xué)，恐怕你要和他們結(jié)婚然后沉浸在一段，實(shí)話說，次優(yōu)的關(guān)系中。很抱歉。但我認(rèn)為，機(jī)會(huì)還是有的賀曼公司迎風(fēng)市場需求出售這樣的情人節(jié)賀卡。（笑聲）“我親愛的

40、丈夫，你沒有我約會(huì)歷程中前37%勺男士那么糟糕這比一般的賀卡浪漫很多。OK,sothismethoddoesn'tgiveyoua100percentsuccessrate,butthere'snootherpossiblestrategythatcandoanybetter.Andactually,inthewild,therearecertaintypesoffishwhichfollowandemploythisexactstrategy.Sotheyrejecteverypossiblesuitorthatturnsupinthefirst37percentofthem

41、atingseason,andthentheypickthenextfishthatcomesalongafterthatwindowthat's,Idon'tknow,biggerandburlierthanallofthefishthatthey'veseenbefore.Ialsothinkthatsubconsciously,humans,wedosortofdothisanyway.Wegiveourselvesalittlebitoftimetoplaythefield,getafeelforthemarketplaceorwhateverwhenwe

42、9;reyoung.Andthenweonlystartlookingseriouslyatpotentialmarriagecandidatesoncewehitourmid-to-late20s.Ithinkthisisconclusiveproof,ifeveritwereneeded,thateverybody'sbrainsareprewiredtobejustalittlebitmathematical.這個(gè)數(shù)學(xué)方法不能保證100%勺成功率，但也沒有更好的策略了。事實(shí)上，在動(dòng)物界，某個(gè)特定種類的魚遵循使用這樣的策略。在交配期，它們拒絕出現(xiàn)在前37%勺每個(gè)求婚者，接著它們選擇

43、37%虧出現(xiàn)的下一個(gè)比所見過的魚體型更加龐大，更加結(jié)實(shí)的魚。我想作為人類我們潛意識(shí)里也在做同樣的選擇。我們給自己更多時(shí)間尋我，在我們年輕的時(shí)候感受婚戀市場。我們只有在20歲年齡段的中后期才會(huì)很真尋找潛在的結(jié)婚對(duì)象。我想這證明了，即使不確定是否需要，每個(gè)人的大腦都預(yù)配了點(diǎn)兒數(shù)學(xué)能力。OK,sothatwasTopTip#2.Now,TopTip#3:Howtoavoiddivorce.OK,solet'simaginethenthatyoupickedyourperfectpartnerandyou'resettlingintoalifelongrelationshipwitht

44、hem.Now,Iliketothinkthateverybodywouldideallyliketoavoiddivorce,apartfrom,Idon'tknow,PiersMorgan'swife,maybe?Butit'sasadfactofmodernlifethatoneintwomarriagesintheStatesendsindivorce,withtherestoftheworldnotbeingfarbehind.Now,youcanbeforgiven,perhapsforthinkingthattheargumentsthatprecedea

45、maritalbreakuparenotanidealcandidateformathematicalinvestigation.Foronething,it'sveryhardtoknowwhatyoushouldbemeasuringorwhatyoushouldbequantifying.Butthisdidn'tstopapsychologist,JohnGottman,whodidexactlythat.Gottmanobservedhundredsofcoupleshavingaconversationandrecorded,well,everythingyouca

46、nthinkof.Soherecordedwhatwassaidintheconversation,herecordedtheirskinconductivity,herecordedtheirfacialexpressions,theirheartrates,theirbloodpressure,basicallyeverythingapartfromwhetherornotthewifewasactuallyalwaysright,whichincidentallyshetotallyis.ButwhatGottmanandhisteamfoundwasthatoneofthemostim

47、portantpredictorsforwhetherornotacoupleisgoingtogetdivorcedwashowpositiveornegativeeachpartnerwasbeingintheconversation.好，上述就是最高秘訣2號(hào)?，F(xiàn)在，最高秘訣3號(hào)：如何避免離婚。好的，讓我們想象一下你找到了你的完美對(duì)象你和他/她進(jìn)入了一生的婚姻關(guān)系。我假設(shè)每個(gè)人都不希望離婚，當(dāng)然，也許除15了PiersMorgan的太太？可是，現(xiàn)代婚姻一個(gè)悲傷的事實(shí)就是美國離婚率高達(dá)50%世界其他國家也離這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)不遠(yuǎn)。當(dāng)然，你可以認(rèn)為婚姻破裂的原因不是數(shù)學(xué)運(yùn)算理想的數(shù)據(jù)源。一方面來說，很難

48、了解到你該去測量什么或者是你該去量化什么。但這并沒有阻止心理學(xué)家JohnGottman做這樣的研究。Gottman觀察了數(shù)百對(duì)夫婦的對(duì)談盡可能錄下來所有信息。記錄了對(duì)話的內(nèi)容，皮膚的傳導(dǎo)性，面部表情，心跳，血壓，基本上除了“太太永遠(yuǎn)是對(duì)的”以外的所有東西，當(dāng)然，太太永遠(yuǎn)是對(duì)的。但是，高特曼他狀語從句：團(tuán)隊(duì)的發(fā)現(xiàn)最能夠準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測這對(duì)夫妻是否會(huì)未來的離婚的英文方在對(duì)話過程中積極還是消極。Now,couplesthatwereverylow-riskscoredalotmorepositivepointsonGottman'sscalethannegative.Whereasbadrelati

49、onships,bywhichImean,probablygoingtogetdivorced,theyfoundthemselvesgettingintoaspiralofnegativity.Nowjustbyusingtheseverysimpleideas,Gottmanandhisgroupwereabletopredictwhetheragivencouplewasgoingtogetdivorcedwitha90percentaccuracy.Butitwasn'tuntilheteamedupwithamathematician,JamesMurray,thatthey

50、reallystartedtounderstandwhatcausesthesenegativityspiralsandhowtheyoccur.Andtheresultsthattheyfound,Ithink,arejustincrediblyimpressivelysimpleandinteresting.Sotheseequationspredicthowthewifeorhusbandisgoingtorespondintheirnextturnoftheconversation,howpositiveornegativethey'regoingtobe.Andtheseeq

51、uationsdependonthemoodofthepersonwhenthey'reontheirown,themoodofthepersonwhenthey'rewiththeirpartner,butmostimportantly,theydependonhowmuchthehusbandandwifeinfluenceoneanother.那些離婚風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很低的夫妻在戈特曼的測試中得到了更多正面而不是負(fù)面的分?jǐn)?shù)。相反的，在糟糕的關(guān)系中，我是指那些可能離婚的夫妻，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)自己沉浸在消極的漩渦中。就用這些非常簡單的方法，Gottman和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)能夠準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測一對(duì)夫妻是否會(huì)離婚，

52、準(zhǔn)確率高達(dá)90%但是，直到他與數(shù)學(xué)家JamesMurray聯(lián)手，他們才真正找出那些消極漩渦是如何產(chǎn)生，為什么產(chǎn)生的。結(jié)果是他們發(fā)現(xiàn)我認(rèn)為不可思議議太令人驚嘆的簡單而有趣。這些算式，他們用來預(yù)測妻子或是丈夫是如何去回應(yīng)他們下一段對(duì)話，他們的積極或消極程度是多少。這些算式，取決于當(dāng)他們獨(dú)處時(shí)各自的情緒，當(dāng)他們和伴侶在一起時(shí)候的情緒，但最重要的是，取決于丈夫和妻子相互間的影響。Now,Ithinkit'simportanttopointoutatthisstage,thattheseexactequationshavealsobeenshowntobeperfectlyableatdescr

53、ibingwhathappensbetweentwocountriesinanarmsrace.Sothatanarguingcouplespiralingintonegativityandteeteringonthebrinkofdivorceisactuallymathematicallyequivalenttothebeginningofanuclearwar.17在這個(gè)階段我認(rèn)為最重要的是，這個(gè)一模一樣的算式同時(shí)也可以完美預(yù)測兩個(gè)國家是否會(huì)開戰(zhàn)。因此一對(duì)沉浸于消極情緒在離婚邊緣搖擺的夫妻-實(shí)際在數(shù)學(xué)上等同于即將開始一場核戰(zhàn)爭。Butthereallyimportantterminthi

54、sequationistheinfluencethatpeoplehaveononeanother,andinparticular,somethingcalled"thenegativitythreshold."Now,thenegativitythreshold,youcanthinkofashowannoyingthehusbandcanbebeforethewifestartstogetreallypissedoff,andviceversa.Now,Ialwaysthoughtthatgoodmarriageswereaboutcompromiseandunderstandingandallowingthepersontohavethespacetobethemselves.SoIwouldhavethoughtthatperhapsthemostsuccessfulrelationshipswereoneswheretherewasareallyhighnegativitythreshold.Wherecouplesletthingsgoandonlybroughtthingsupiftheyreallywereabigdeal.Bu