多邊投資擔保機構(gòu)在促進私營部門融資發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面所能發(fā)揮的

1、I N S U R I N G I N V E S T M E N T S E N S U R I N G O P P O R T U N I T I E S 1990-2002年發(fā)展中國家有私營部門參與的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資年發(fā)展中國家有私營部門參與的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資Investment in Infrastructure Projects with private participation in Developing countries, 1990-2002(單位：10億美元，$ billion)27.739.645.657.182.8127.5109.672.790.567.647.318.118

2、.50204060801001201401990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002風險到底如何風險到底如何？How real are the risks?v 最近投資者的經(jīng)驗包括：私人資產(chǎn)的重新獲得政府責任欺騙原來政府給予的特許收回F新項目融資困難由于立法和法律框架不足造成合同執(zhí)行失望v 隨著次級主權(quán)伙伴介入的增加，風險領(lǐng)域擴大v Recent investor experience includes:repossession of privatized assetsdefaults on governmen

3、t obligationsrevocation of concessions given by previous governmentsfinancing difficulty for new projectscontract frustration due to inadequate legal & regulatory frameworksv Risk arena widening, as sub-sovereign partners increasingly involved前景如何前景如何Going forward投資需求巨大(電力，水，等等)公共投資穩(wěn)定甚至減少國際援助在總體

4、融資中占較小比重如何填補缺口？私營部門？納稅者稅收？綜合上述幾種， 即PPP?Investment needs are enormous (power, water, etc.) !Public funding stable or even decreasingInternational aid is (and probably will remain) a small percentage of the overall financing packageThus how to fill the gap? Private sector? Taxpayers?Tariffs? A combina

5、tion, i.e. PPPs?在多部門吸引私營投資需要減少風險在多部門吸引私營投資需要減少風險 Attracting private investment in a number of sectors will require risk mitigation 貨幣風險 美元債務(wù)和地方貨幣收入法律風險 法律框架未能實施或未經(jīng)實驗支付風險 政府未能如期支付次級主權(quán)風險 投資風險常常發(fā)生在次級主權(quán)層次l可負擔性風險 私營部門投資者很難單獨投資Currency risk Dollar debt and local currency earningsRegulatory risk Regulatory

6、 framework not implemented or untestedPayment risk Government fails to pay amounts dueSub-sovereign risk Investments often at sub-sovereign levelAffordability riskPrivate operators and consumers will not do it all; role of public investments and subsidies減少法規(guī)和政策風險減少法規(guī)和政策風險Mitigating regulatory/polic

7、y risk比工具更重要: 更好的合同:合同中包括對法規(guī)的清楚描述盡可能明確稅收澄清申述過程快速仲裁 時間限制如果未達成協(xié)議明確退出支付通過減小風險手段部分風險擔保 ，合同違約保險可減輕法規(guī)風險v More important than instruments: better contracts:Clear guidance to the regulator in contractSpecify tariff formulas as much as feasibleClarify appeal processFast track arbitration; timelineSpecified e

8、xit payments if no agreement can be reachedv Through mitigation instrumentsPartial credit guarantees, partial risk guarantees, breach of contract coverage can mitigate regulatory risk保險可減輕一些表現(xiàn)風險保險可減輕一些表現(xiàn)風險Guarantees can mitigate some of the performance risks稅收承諾立法過程 不連接政策政府未預期支付終止數(shù)量Tariff commitment

9、s Regulatory process Disconnection policiesNon payments by Governments of amounts due (e.g. Output Based Assistance)Termination amounts擔保：一種風險管理的工具擔保：一種風險管理的工具Guarantees: a risk management tool 提高信用提高信用 提高項目的總體風險回報率 減少借款人對準備金的要求 降低融資成本增強信心增強信心 對東道國政府的干預起到威懾作用 給予投資者投資于新的邊緣市場的信心 調(diào)解投資爭端穩(wěn)定業(yè)務(wù)環(huán)境穩(wěn)定業(yè)務(wù)環(huán)境 為商業(yè)運營提供穩(wěn)定的環(huán)境Credit enhancement improves overall risk-return profile of the project may reduce provisioning requirements for lenders may lower cost of financingConfidence deterrent against host government interference gives investors confidence in investing in n