戰(zhàn)略分析報告-摩根斯坦利英文

PresentationtotheAutomotiveNewsWorldCongressStephenJ.Girsky

January戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第1頁DisclosuresAnalystCertificationAnalystCertificationThefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:StephenJ.Girsky.ImportantUSRegulartoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompaniesTheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyMorganStanley&Co.Incorporated(“MorganStanley”).AsofNovember28,,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinthisreport:Delphi,GeneralMotors,GoodyearTire&Rubber,JohnsonControls,MagnaIntlInc.,TBCandTowerAutomotive.Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleymanagedorco-managedapublicofferingofsecuritiesofDaimlerChryslerAG,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,StandardMotorProductsandTenneco.Withinthelast12months,MorganStanley,MorganStanleyoranaffiliatehasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAftermarketTechnology,AmericanAxleandMfg.,BorgWarnerInc.,DaimlerChryslerAG,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,StandardMotorProducts,SuperiorIndustries,Tenneco,TowerAutomotiveandVisteonCorporation.Inthenext3months,MorganStanleyexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAftermarketTechnology,AmericanAxleandMfg.,ArvinMeritor,AutoNation,BorgWarnerInc.,DaimlerChryslerAG,DanaCorp.,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,GenuinePartsCo.,GoodyearTire&Rubber,JohnsonControls,LearCorp.,LithiaMotors,MagnaIntlInc.,StandardMotorProducts,SuperiorIndustries,Tenneco,TowerAutomotive,UnitedAutoGroupandVisteonCorporation.Theresearchanalysts,strategist,orresearchassociatesprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationoftheresearchreporthavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingqualityofresearch,investorclientfeedback,stockpicking,competitivefactors,firmrevenuesandinvestmentbankingrevenues.MorganStanley&Co.IncorporatedmakesamarketinthesecuritiesofAftermarketTechnology,Delphi,DuraAutomotive,Ford,GeneralMotors,MagnaIntl.,TBCandTowerAutomotive.GlobalStockRatingsDistribution(asofDecember31,)(Continued)戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第2頁DisclosuresDataincludecommonstockandADRscurrentlyassignedratings.Fordisclosurepurposes(inaccordancewithNASDandNYSErequirements),wenotethatOverweight,ourmostpositivestockrating,mostcloselycorrespondstoabuyrecommendation;Equal-weightandUnderweightmostcloselycorrespondtoneutralandsellrecommendations,respectively.However,Overweight,Equal-weight,andUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,neutral,andsellbutrepresentrecommendedrelativeweightings(seedefinitionsbelow).Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.InvestmentBankingClientsarecompaniesfromwhomMorganStanleyoranaffiliatereceivedinvestmentbankingcompensationinthelast12months.AnalystStockRatingsOverweight(OorOver)-Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasisoverthenext12-18months.

Equal-weight(EorEqual)-Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobeinlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasisoverthenext12-18months.

Underweight(UorUnder)-Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobebelowtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.

Morevolatile(V)-Weestimatethatthisstockhasmorethana25%chanceofapricemove(upordown)ofmorethan25%inamonth,basedonaquantitativeassessmentofhistoricaldata,orintheanalyst'sview,itislikelytobecomemateriallymorevolatileoverthenext1-12monthscomparedwiththepastthreeyears.

Stockswithlessthanoneyearoftradinghistoryareautomaticallyratedasmorevolatile(unlessotherwisenoted).Wenotethatsecuritiesthatwedonotcurrentlyconsider"morevolatile"canstillperforminthatmanner.

Unlessotherwisespecified,thetimeframeforpricetargetsincludedinthisreportis12to18months.RatingspriortoMarch18,:SB=StrongBuy;OP=Outperform;N=Neutral;UP=Underperform.Fordefinitions,pleasegoto/companycharts.AnalystIndustryViewsAttractive(A).Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniversetobeattractivevs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkoverthenext12-18months.In-Line(I).Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniversetobeinlinewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkoverthenext12-18months.Cautious(C).Theanalystviewstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniversewithcautionvs.thereleventbroadmarketbenchmarkoverthenext12-18months.OtherImportantDisclosuresForadiscussion,ifapplicable,ofthevaluationmethodsusedtodeterminethepricetargetsincludedinthissummaryandtherisksrelatedtoachievingthesetargets,pleaserefertothelatestrelevantpublishedresearchonthesestocks.ResearchisavailablethroughtyoursalesrepresentativeoronClientLinkatandotherelectronicsystems.Thisreportdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadvice.Ithasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualfinancialcircumstancesandobjectivesofpersonwhoreceiveit.Thesecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportmaybesuitableforallinvestors.MorganStanleyrecommendsthatinvestorsindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategies,andencouragesinvestorstoseektheadviceofafinancialadviser.Theappropriatenessofaparticularinvestmentorstrategywilldependonaninvestor’sindividualcircumstancesandobjectives.Thisreportisnotanoffertobuyorsellanysecurityortoparticipateinanytradingstrategy.MorganStanley,MorganStanleyDWInc.,affiliatecompaniesand.ortheiremployeesmayhaveinvestmentsinsecuritiesorderivativesofsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedinthisreport,andmaytradetheminwaysdifferentfromthisdiscussedinthisreport.DerivativesmaybeissuedbyMorganStanleyorassociatedpersons.(Continued)戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第3頁DisclosuresMorganStanleyisinvolvedinmanybusinessesthatmayrelatetocompaniesmentionedinthisreport.Thesebusinessesincludespecializedtrading,riskarbitrageandotherproprietarytrading,fundmanagement,investmentservicesandinvestmentbanking.MorganStanleymakeseveryefforttousereliable,comprehensiveinformation,butwemakenorepresentationthatitisaccurateorcomplete.Wehavenoobligationtotellyouwhenopinionsorinformationinthisreportchangeapartfromwhenweintendtodiscontinueresearchcoverageofsubjectcompany.ReportspreparedbyMorganStanleyresearchpersonnelarebasedonpublicinformation.Factsandviewspresentedinthisreporthavenotbeenreviewedby,andmaynotreflectinformationknownto,professionalsinotherMorganStanleybusinessareas,includinginvestmentbankingpersonnel.Thevalueofandincomefromyourinvestmentsmayvarybecauseofchangesininterestratesorforeignexchangerates,securitiespricesormarketindexes,operationalorfinancialconditionsofcompaniesorotherfactors.Theremaybetimelimitationsontheexerciseofoptionsorotherrightsinyoursecuritiestransactions.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformance.Estimatesoffutureperformancearebasedonassumptionsthatmaynotberealized.ThispublicationisdisseminatedinJapanbyMorganStanleyJapanLimitedand/orMorganStanleyNipponSecuritiesLimited;inSingaporebyorganStanleyDeanWitterAsia(Singapore)Pte.,regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore;inAustraliabyMorganStanleyDeanWitterAustraliaLimitedA.B.N.67003734576,alicenseddealer,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents;incertainprovincesofCanadabyMorganStanleyCanadaLimited,whichhasapprovedof,andhasagreedtotakeresponsibilityfor,thecontentsofthispublicationinCanada;inSpainbyMorganStanley,S.V.,S.A.,aMorganStanleygroupcompany,whichissupervisedbytheSpanishSecuritiesMarketsCommission(CNMV)andstatesthatthisdocumenthasbeenwrittenanddistributedinaccordancewiththerulesofconductapplicabletofinancialresearchasestablishedunderSpanishregulations;intheUnitedStatesbyMorganStanley&Co.IncorporatedandMorganStanleyDWInc.,whichacceptresponsibilityforitscontents;andintheUnitedKingdom,thispublicationisapprovedbyMorganStanley&Co.InternationalLimited,solelyforthepurposesofsection21oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct.PrivateU.K.investorsshouldobtaintheadviceoftheirMorganStanley&Co.InternationalLimitedrepresentativeabouttheinvestmentconcerned.Thetrademarksandservicemarkscontainedhereinarethepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.Third-partydataprovidersmakenowarrantiesorrepresentationsofanykindrelatingtotheaccuracy,completeness,ortimelinessofthedatatheyprovideandshallnothaveliabilityforanydamagesofanykindrelatingtosuchdata.TheGlobalIndustryClassificationStandard("GICS")wasdevelopedbyandistheexclusivepropertyofMSCIandS&P.Thisreportoranyportionhereofmaynotbereprinted,soldorredistributedwithoutthewrittenconsentofMorganStanley.Additionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableonrequest.戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第4頁OverviewAutoOutlook:Sameproblems;LessofthemGlobalDilemma:Mostparticipantsspendingforgrowthyettheindustrydoesnotgrow.Demandgrowthislikelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery.Competitivepressuresarelikelytoremaindifficult.Weakerdollarcouldlevelprovidesomeoffset.Higherratescreateriskofweakerdemand,weakermixandlowerfinancecompanyearnings.BigThreeopportunity:Actualqualityisbetterthanperceivedquality.戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第5頁GlobalLightVehicleSales:SlowGrowthCAGR1.2%Source:LMC~J.D.Power&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第6頁GlobalSalesForecasts:-Source:GlobalInsight&MorganStanleyResearch*NoteforecastsarederivedfromGlobalInsight戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第7頁U.S.Sales16.7mmUnitsFY03E16.8mmUnitsFY04ESource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第8頁JapaneseSAAR5.6mmUnitsFY03E5.7mmUnitsFY04ESource:MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第9頁WesternEuropeanSAAR14.1mmFY03E14.2mmFY04ESource:MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第10頁GlobalExcessCapacityat25%-30%

or20mmunitsSource:Autofacts&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第11頁CapEx/D&AFYE:

OEMsSpendingforGrowth

Source:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearch*Adjustedtofitscale戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第12頁ZeroSumGameGlobalDilemma:Mostparticipantsarespendingforgrowth,yettheindustrydoesnotgrow.Slowgrowth&excesscapacitysuggestdeflation/revenuepressuresarelikelytocontinue.Noteverybodycanbeawinner.Winnerswillbelowcostproducerswhodeliveragoodproductthatconsumersarewillingtopayfor.戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第13頁ModestDemandGrowthDemandgrowthislikelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery:Autosalesdidnotweakenmateriallyinthemostrecentrecessionandthus,significantpent-updemandwasnevercreated.Thenumberofoff-leasevehiclesisfallingsharply–fewerconsumersarebeingforcedbacktoadealertobuyorleaseanewvehicle.Extendedfinancingtermsarelikelytoprolongvehicleturnover.Economicconditionsappearmixed.戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第14頁LightVehicleSalesTrendLineDemandSource:MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第15頁LightVehicleSalesCycle:TroughtoTroughSource:R.L.Polk,GlobalInsight&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第16頁WeightedMedianAgeofaVehiclevs.Sales1YearLeadCorrelation77.6%Source:Polk&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第17頁OffLeaseVehiclesBegintoDeclineSource:Manheim&MorganStanleyResearchFewerConsumersBeingForcedBacktotheDealerships戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第18頁AverageMaturityofVehicleLoans(months)Source:FederalReserveBoard&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第19頁TakingLongertoEstablishConsumerEquitySource:FRB&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第20頁EconomicConditionsBetterthantheywere,butstillnotrobustSource:CPI&MorganStanleyResearchPeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03InterestRatesConsumerConfidenceGasolinePricesUsedCarPricesEmployment戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第21頁AffordabilityNear25YearBestNumberofWeeksofIncometoPurchaseaVehicleSource:FRB&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第22頁IntenseCompetitionCompetitivepressuresarelikelytoremaindifficult:Capacitygrowthtocontinuein.Pricingislikelytoremaindifficultalthoughaweakdollarmayprovideamodestoffset.Marketsharepressurestocontinueaswell.戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第23頁NACapacityAdditions,DespiteFlatSlsOutlookSource:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearchFordNissan(122)250308FordGM(211)(98)80=100,000unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)18020030NetIncreaseOf853,000UnitsorRoughly5.1%ofNAsalesToyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai2356戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第24頁ExcessCapacity&MoreIsOnTheWayEvery1%Pt.ofMarketShareTranslatesinto$1.0bninProfits853,000UnitsofAddedCapacityis5.1%ofNACapacity,or$5bninPretaxProfitsNAPretaxProfit

BigThreeFY03E(inMM)

$1,971 Source:MorganStanleyResearchEstimates戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第25頁RevenuePressuresWorstSince1970’sNewCarCPIvs.DomesticLightVehicleSalesSource:CPI&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第26頁Y/YChangeinMonthlyNewCarCPISource:CPI&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第27頁PriceReductionsPressureManufacturersEvery1%DeclineinPricesisWorth$1.0bnatGM$850mmatFord$550mmatDCXSource:MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第28頁BigThreeMarketShareContinuestoSlide76.0%60.2%61.7%Every1%PointofShareisWorthRoughly$1bninProfitSource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第29頁MarketShareWinners/Losers–FY03Source:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第30頁BigThreeShareofSalesbySegment:

FY-03vs.FY-02Source:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第31頁USDollarperEuro:Jan03-PresentSource:FactSet&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第32頁JapaneseYenvs.U.S.DollarSource:FactSet&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第33頁YentoUSDollarPriceSensitivity:YTD03Source:CompanyData&MorganStanleyResearchNote:*IncludesAcura,Infiniti,Lexus戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第34頁WeakerDollarCouldHelpaLittleSource:MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第35頁GlobalOperatingMarginsFY02Source:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearch*MorganStanleyEstimatesExcludingPension&OPEBExpensefortheBigThreePorscheNissanBMWHondaToyotaHyundaiGMPeugeotKiaVWDCXRenaultFordFiat16.4%10.6%8.9%8.4%8.1%6.1%5.7%5.0%4.7%4.0%3.8%1.7%1.8%-6.2%戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第36頁HigherRatesCouldbeaNegativeHigherratescreateriskofweakerdemand,weakermixandlowerfinancecompanyearningsExtendedtermssuggestlongerreplacementrates.Every1%increaseinfinancingrateson5-yearloansisworth$730-750pervehicle.戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第37頁AutoFinanceTerms:Fallvs.NowSource:FRB&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第38頁GMAC/FMCCBorrowingCostsSource:FRB&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第39頁Big3Opportunity:

ActualQualityisBetterthanPerceivedQualitySource:JDPower,CNW&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第40頁TheBigThree:Positives&NegativesEachCompanyFacesUniqueChallenges:GMhasoperationalmomentumandhasmadesignificantstridesrelativetoitsfixedlegacycosts.Ford’sshareislikelytoremainunderpressure.Whileearningsandcostcuttinghavebeenstrong,cashflowneedstocatchup.DCXcontinuestostrugglewithitsproductline.Qualityissues,bothperceived(Chrysler)andactual(Mercedes)continuetolinger.戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第41頁BigThreeRelativeStockPerformance:Source:FactSet&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第42頁GeneralMotorsGMstillappearstohaveavariablecostadvantagevs.F&DCXandafixedcostdisadvantage.GM’saggressivefundingofpensionandhealthcarehavehelpedtonarrowthefixedcostdisadvantage.SignificantnewproductlaunchesgiveGMitsbestchanceofgainingshare/reducingincentivesinyears.GMisgoingintowithaboveaverageinventory.Financecompanyearningsarelikelytodeclineduetohigherinterestratesandlowermortgagerefinancingactivity.戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第43頁GMMarketShare35.5%28.0%28.4%Source:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第44頁U.S.Healthcare&PensionCost/UnitFY03Source:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearch$1,134$601$1,159$814$889$740$1,899$902$1074$185$88戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第45頁GMPensionFundedStatus:UpdateSource:CompanyData&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第46頁GMHasBuiltInventoryinSource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第47頁FinancialServiceEarningsUnlikelytoMatchSource:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第48頁GMNew/Replacement/RedesignedProductsSource:CompanyData,Ward’sAutomotive&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第49頁FordMotorCompanyEarningshaveexceededexpectations.Nowcashflowneedstocatchup.WiththeexceptionoftheF-Series,newproductsarelimiteduntilyear-end,suggestingsharepressureislikelytocontinue.InternationalOperations/PremierAutoGroupneedtostartpullingtheirweight.Stabilityinmanagementranksisimportant.戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第50頁FMarketShareSource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch19.6%19.5%20.2%25.7%戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第51頁Fvs.GMCashFlowSource:Companyreports&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第52頁FAutoPre-TaxProfit,1999-ESource:CompanyData&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第53頁FGeographicPre-taxProfit:3Q03vs.3Q02Source:Companyreports&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第54頁FNew/Replacement/RedesignedProductsSource:CompanyData,Ward’sAutomotive&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略分析報告－摩根斯坦利英文第55頁FNewProductMonitorSource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch戰(zhàn)略