某咨詢-化學(xué)行業(yè)報(bào)告英文

Noordwijk,October4,2004Prof.RolandBergerChairman,RolandBergerStrategyConsultantsEUenlargement–newopportunitiesforthechemicalindustryThechangingfaceofEuropeChallengesandopportunitiesofenlargementforEU15OpportunitiesforEU15chemicalplayersinCEEandCISConclusionContentsA.ThechangingfaceofEurope%ofEU25France,Germany,ItalyandBenelux:Sixwealthycorecountriesstarteconomicintegrationprocessin19571.1EU6(1957)**2003data>Europe'scorecountrieshadsluggishgrowthoverthelasttenyears:Averagegrowth1.3%p.a.inGermany,1.7%inFrance,2.5%NetherlandsGDP/capita[USD]28,608118.0%75.5%%ofUSPopulation[m]22750.0%78.0%GDP[USDbn]6,49458.9%59.0%Denmark,IrelandandtheUnitedKingdom:Firstacces-sionroundafter16yearsincreaseseconomicpower1.2EU9(1973)**2003data>AsaresultofEUintegration,Ireland'seconomicgrowthhasbeenout-standinglyhighoverthepasttenyears:7.6%p.a.(DK2.1%,UK2.8%)Population[m]29765.0%102.0%GDP/capita[USD]29,141120.2%76.9%GDP[USDbn]8,65578.5%78.8%%ofEU25%ofUSGreece:ApoorercountryjoinstheEuropeanUnionin1981–firstdiscussionsaboutdilution1.3EU10(1981)**2003data>Greecenowhashighaveragegrowthrates(3.8%p.a.from1995-2004)–partlyduetoEuropeanmoneyfromstructural/regionalfundsGDP[USDbn]8,82780.0%80.3%Population[m]30867.7%106.2%GDP/capita[USD]28,659118.3%75.6%%ofEU25%ofUSSpainandPortugal:Accessionoftwolessdeveloped

southerncountriesreducesEU'saveragewealth1.4EU12(1986)**2003data>Today,thesoutherncountriescontributetoEUgrowth:Spain(3.3%p.a.since1995)andPortugal(2.4%p.a.)achievedhighaveragegrowthratesGDP[USDbn]9,81689.0%89.3%Population[m]35978.9%123.0%112.8%72.2%GDP/capita[USD]27,343%ofEU25%ofUSSweden,FinlandandAustria:Europe'snorthernenlargementpushesuptheaverageGDPpercapita1.5EU15(1995)**2003data>StimulustoEUgrowthoverthepasttenyears:Finland'seconomygrew3.5%p.a.onaverage,Sweden's2.7%p.a.,andAustria's2.0%p.a.GDP[USDbn]10,53495.5%95.9%Population[m]38183.7%130.5%GDP/capita[USD]27,648114.1%73.0%%ofEU25%ofUSGDP[USDbn]11,028100.4%Population[m]455156.0%EasternEurope,MaltaandCyprus:ThebiggestroundofenlargementeverchangesthefaceofEurope1.2EU25(2004)**2003data>GDPgrowthratesofupto6.5%p.a.inCEE(average4.4%p.a.since'95)> But:EnlargementisabigchallengeforEuropeanUniontocreatewealthGDP/capita[USD]24,23764.0%%ofUS50yearsofenlargement:ComparedtotheUS,theEUhasgainedsizeattheexpenseofaveragewealth>Today,Europe'sGDPpercapitaisonlyabouttwo-thirdsthatoftheUS–intermsoftotalGDP,botheconomiesarenowcomparableEUvs.US*[US=100%]59.077.580.389.395.9100.478.0102.0106.2123.8130.5156.075.576.975.672.273.064.01957EU61973EU91981EU101986EU121995EU152004EU25GDPInhabitantsGDPpercapitaUS=100*basedon2003data1.3Wealthgap:Tenyearsago,thenorthoftheEuropeanUnionwasrichandthesouthwaspoor2.1>SouthgainedwealthinEU:From34.4%ofEU-9(1986)to59.8%today1995:Gapbetweennorthandsouth*1995*2003data**EU12***Portugal,Spain,GreeceGDP

[USDbn]Unemployment

[%]Population

[m]SOUTH***NORTH**1,1619,37313.49.262319RATIO9:1GDPpercapita

[USD]18,72629,3833:22:35:17,42927,6204:1Today,thegapisbetweeneastandwest–GDPpercapitaintheEU15isfourtimeshigherthaninEU102.22004:Gapbetweeneastandwest>EUsupportwillhelpEU10economicdevelopmenttoreachEU15wealth2003EU10EU1549310,53410.58.574381RATIO21:14:55:1GDP

[USDbn]Unemployment

[%]Population

[m]GDPpercapita

[USD]EU25vs.USvs.Asia:EnlargedEUisastillpowerful,buttheslowestgrowingeconomicregionintheworld3.>Opportunity:TennewstatesgivetheEUmomentumtoincreasegrowthECONOMICPOWER[GDP,USDbn]Comparativeindicators2003POPULATION[m]WEALTH[GDPpercapita,USD]GROWTH

[avg.GDPgrowth1999-2003,%]10,9882903.311,0284552.3USEU25ASIA**AggregateddataforJapan,China,ASEAN8,4581,9474.837,89024,23712,058B.Challengesandopportunitiesofenlargementfor

EU15Eastwardenlargemententailsthreatsandopportunitiesforeconomies,companies,andgovernmentsEconomiesUnitlaborcostadvantagesinEU10challengeexistingvaluecreationstructuresinEU15,butalsooffer

momentumforstructuralchange/innovationinEU15CompaniesCompetitioninEU15aswellasinEU10isincreasing,

butalsonewsales,investment,growthandrelocationopportunitiesforEU15companiesinEasternEuropeGovernmentsExistinginstitutionalsetupsinEU15arechallengedbylowertaxes/contributionsandhigherflexibilityinEU10,butalsomomentumforpoliticalchange>EffectsofenlargementonmacroeconomicandmicroeconomiclevelsMacroeconomicthreats:PressureonEU15labormarketsandcompetitionforbestinstitutionalsetupLowwage-competition/unemploymentthreatsMigration(upto3.8mpeoplefromCEEwillmovetotheEU15)Offshoring(e.g.830,000peopleinCEEemployedbyGermanfirmsin2004)Lowtax/socialcontributionscompetitionAlso:Lessregulation(e.g.IMDbureaucracyindex:Estoniaranked9th,UKranked33rd)Financialburden(EUbudget)Costofenlargement(2004-2006):

49bnEUR>Differences:Countrieswithhighdegreeofregulation,geographical proximitytoCEEandnetcontributorstoEUbudgetaremoreaffected1.139,019,015,00,017,415,08,512,5GERPOLLITESTTaxesContributionsCORPORATETAXES[%]/SOCIALCONTRIBUTIONS2004[%ofGDP]Macroeconomicopportunities:Highergrowthmomen-tumforstructural/institutionalchangeandinnovationEnhancedgrowthineastandwestEU15benefitsfrombacklogofdemand

inCEENewmomentumin'NewEurope'throughincreasedtrade/know-howMomentumforstructuralchange/innovationLabor-intensive/lowvaluecreationindustries/products

nolonger

competitiveinEU15Structuralchangetowardshigh-techgoodsandservicestheonlychoicefor'OldEurope'

(->growth/wealth)MomentumforinstitutionalchangeRegulations,taxes,subsidies,flexiblemarkets>EUenlargementhelpspolicymakersbringaboutnecessarybutoften unpopularstructuralreformsintheirrespectivecountries1.2CEE8+1.3-2.1

p.a.2005-09EU15+0.5-0.7cum.2000-09Source:EUCommissionIMPACTOF2004ENLARGEMENTONGDPGROWTH[%]Microeconomicthreats:IncreasingcompetitionforEU15duetolowerlabor/unitcostsinEasternEurope>Differences:Matureindustriesmoreaffectedthaninnovativeones, borderregionsmorethanwestern,smallcompaniesmorethanlarge2.12.821.190.56-0.15-1.03-2.26Chemi-

calsMedical

techno-

logyITequip-

mentAuto-

motiveSteel

industryWoodIndustrieswith

comparative

ADVANTAGEinGERIndustrieswithcomparativeDISADVANTAGEinGERMoreattractivebusinessconditionsinCEELaborcostsonlybetween10.4%(Slova-kia)and17.8%(Hungary)ofEU15levelTaxeslowerandsocialcontributionsonlybetween10.0%(Poland)and16.3%(CzechRepublic)ofGermanlevelCapitalcostsabout20%lower–becauseoflowerinvestmentneedsduetoflexiblelabormarketsNeedforIndustryrestructuringInnovation(creativedestruction)REVEALEDCOMPARATIVEADVANTAGE–GERMANYVS.EASTERNEUROPE[Index]Microeconomicopportunities:CEEoffersnewmarketsandgrowth/investment/offshoringopportunities>LaborcostsinCEEwillremainattractiveforatleast30moreyears2.2200120102020203039.466.3POL42.467.9EST61.478.5CZR71.584.1SLO100EU15Newmarketsforinfrastructure,capitalandconsumergoods75mnewconsumerswithincreasing

purchasingpowerforconsumergoodsHighdemandformodernizedinfrastructure

andcapitalgoodsNewgrowthandinvestmentopportunitiesPrivatizationofstate-ownedcompaniesAcquisition/restructuringofEU10enterprisesLowunitcoststhroughoffshoringSetupofownproductionfacilitiesOutsourcingoflabor-intensiveproductionLowertaxesandsocialcontributionsCONVERGENCEINPERCAPITAINCOME[index,EU15=100]Res離ult崗of蔬20顯04偉enl行arg術(shù)eme津nt:New岔Euro纏pean澡div禍isio浙nof泛lab獸orb號(hào)ased光on雅regi衡onal我com室para別tive什adv術(shù)anta殼gesRELA屆TIVEABUN泛DANC逆E

OF鬧CAP垃ITALANDTECH豆NOLO箏GYWES霸TER版NE才URO糊PE:Cap木ita和l/k拴now歪led穿ge-百int轎ens閉iveeco業(yè)nom父iesEAS職TER攻NE競(jìng)URO伏PE:Labo乓r-in詠tens短iveeco囑nom碰iesREL句ATI設(shè)VEABUN雕DANC持E

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