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7章項(xiàng)目成本ProjectCost項(xiàng)目成本管理包含為使項(xiàng)目在批準(zhǔn)的預(yù)算內(nèi)完成而對(duì)成本進(jìn)行規(guī)劃、估算、預(yù)算、融資、籌資、管理和控制的各個(gè)過(guò)程，從而確保項(xiàng)目在批準(zhǔn)的預(yù)算內(nèi)完工。ProjectCostManagementincludestheprocessesinvolvedinplanning,estimating,budgeting,financing,funding,managing,andcontrollingcostssothattheprojectcanbecompletedwithintheapprovedbudget.圖7-1概括了項(xiàng)目成本管理的各個(gè)過(guò)程，包括Figure7-1providesanoverviewofthefollowingProjectCostManagement規(guī)劃成本管PlancostManagement—Theprocessthatestablishesthepolicies,procedures,andationforplanning,managing,expending,andcontrollingprojectcosts.估算成本——對(duì)完成項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)所需進(jìn)行近似估算的過(guò)程 costs—Theprocessofdeveloanapproximationofthemonetaryresourcesneededtocompleteprojectactivities. Budget—Theprocessofaggregatingtheestimatedcostsofindividualactivitiesorworkpackagestoestablishanauthorizedcostbaseline. costs—Theprocessofmonitoringthestatusoftheprojecttoupdatetheprojectcostsandmanagingchangestothecostbaseline.附錄A1。TheseprocessesinteractwitheachotherandwithprocessesinotherKnowledgeAreasasdescribedindetailinSection3andAnnexA1.在某些項(xiàng)目，特別是范圍較小的項(xiàng)目中，成本估算和成本預(yù)算之間的聯(lián)系非常緊密，至于可視為一個(gè)過(guò)程，由一個(gè)人在較短時(shí)間內(nèi)完成。但本章仍然把這兩個(gè)過(guò)程分開(kāi)來(lái)介紹，因?yàn)樗鼈兯玫墓ぞ吆图夹g(shù)各不相同。對(duì)成本的在項(xiàng)目早期最大，因此盡早定義范圍就至關(guān)重要（見(jiàn)5.3節(jié)。Onsomeprojects,especiallythoseofsmallerscope,costestimatingandcostbudgetingaretightlylinkedandcanbeviewedasasingleprocessthatcanbeperformedbyasingle overarelativelyshortperiodoftime.Thesearepresentedhereasdistinctprocessesbecausethetoolsandtechniquesforeacharedifferent.Theabilitytoinfluencecostisgreatestattheearlystagesoftheproject,makingearlyscopedefinitioncritical 項(xiàng)目成本管理應(yīng)考慮干系人對(duì)掌握成本情況的要求。不同的干系人會(huì)在不同的時(shí)間、不同的方法測(cè)算項(xiàng)目成本。例如，對(duì)于某采購(gòu)品，可在做出采購(gòu)決策、下達(dá)訂單、實(shí)際交貨、實(shí)際成本發(fā)生或進(jìn)行會(huì)計(jì)記賬時(shí)，測(cè)算其成本。ProjectCostManagementshouldconsiderthestakeholderrequirementsformanagingcosts.Differentstakeholderswillmeasureprojectcostsindifferentwaysandatdifferenttimes.Forexample,thecostofanacquireditemmaybemeasuredwhentheacquisitiondecisionismadeorcommitted,theorderisplaced,theitemisdelivered,ortheactualcostisincurredorrecordedforprojectaccountingpurposes.項(xiàng)目成本管理重點(diǎn)關(guān)注完成項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)所需資源的成本，但同時(shí)也應(yīng)考慮項(xiàng)目決策對(duì)項(xiàng)產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)或成果的使用成本、成本和支持成本的影響。例如，限制設(shè)計(jì)的次數(shù)可降低項(xiàng)目成本，但可能增加由此帶來(lái)的產(chǎn)品運(yùn)營(yíng)成本。ProjectCostManagementisprimarilyconcernedwiththecostoftheresourcesneededtocompleteprojectactivities.ProjectCostManagementshouldalsoconsidertheeffectofprojectdecisionsonthesubsequentrecurringcostofusing,maintaining,andsupportingtheproduct,service,orresultoftheproject.Forexample,limitingthenumberofdesignreviewscanreducethecostoftheprojectbutcouldincreasetheresultingproduct’soperating在很多組織中，預(yù)測(cè)和分析項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)品的財(cái)務(wù)效益是在項(xiàng)目之行的。但對(duì)于有些項(xiàng)目，如固定資產(chǎn)投資項(xiàng)目，可在項(xiàng)目成本管理中進(jìn)行這項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)和分析工作。在這種情況下，項(xiàng)目成本管理還需使用其他過(guò)程和許多通用財(cái)務(wù)管理技術(shù)，如投資回報(bào)率分析、現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)分析和投資回收期分析等。Inmanyorganizations,predictingand yzingtheprospectivefinancialperformanceoftheproject’sproductisperformedoutsideoftheproject.Inothers,suchasacapitalfacilitiesproject,ProjectCostManagementcanincludethiswork.Whensuchpredictionsand ysesareincluded,ProjectCostManagementmayaddressadditionalprocessesandnumerousgeneralfinancialmanagementtechniquessuchasreturnoninvestment,discountedcashflow,andinvestmentpayback 應(yīng)該在項(xiàng)目規(guī)劃階段的早期就對(duì)成本管理工作進(jìn)行規(guī)劃，建立各成本管理過(guò)程的基本框架，以確保各過(guò)程的有效性及各過(guò)程之間的協(xié)調(diào)性。Thecostmanagementplanningeffortoccursearlyinprojectplanningandsetstheframeworkforeachofthecostmanagementprocessessothatperformanceoftheprocesseswillbeefficientandcoordinated.PlanCost規(guī)劃成本管理是為規(guī)劃、管理、花費(fèi)和控制項(xiàng)目成本而制定政策、程序和文檔的過(guò)程PlanCostManagementistheprocessthatestablishesthepolicies,procedures,andationforplanning,managing,expending,andcontrollingprojectcosts.Thekeybenefitofthisprocessisthatitprovidesguidanceanddirectiononhowtheprojectcostswillbemanagedthroughouttheproject.Theinputs,toolsandtechniques,andoutputsofthisprocessaredepictedinFigure7-2.Figure7-3depictsthedataflowdiagramoftheprocess.成本管理過(guò)程及其工具與技術(shù)，應(yīng)記錄在成本管理計(jì)劃中。成本管理計(jì)劃是項(xiàng)目管理計(jì)劃的組成部分。Thecostmanagementprocessesandtheirassociatedtoolsandtechniquesareedinthecostmanagementplan.Thecostmanagementplanisacomponentoftheprojectmanagementplan.規(guī)劃成本管理：輸入PlancostManagement:項(xiàng)目管理計(jì)劃ProjectManagement見(jiàn)節(jié)。項(xiàng)目管理計(jì)劃中用以制定成本管理計(jì)劃的信息包括（但不限于：DescribedinSectionTheprojectmanagementplancontainsinformationusedtodevelopthecostmanagementplan,whichcontains,butisnotlimitedto: ThescopebaselineincludestheprojectscopestatementandWBSdetailforcostestimationandmanagement.進(jìn)度基準(zhǔn)。進(jìn)度基準(zhǔn)定義了項(xiàng)目成本將在何時(shí)發(fā)生其他信息。項(xiàng)目管理計(jì)劃中與成本相關(guān)的進(jìn)度、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和溝通決策等信息Otherinformation. Othercost-relatedscheduling,risk,andcommunicationsdecisionsfromtheprojectmanagementplan.項(xiàng)目章程 DescribedinSection.Theprojectcharterprovidesthesummarybudgetfromwhichthedetailedprojectcostsaredeveloped.Theprojectcharteralsodefinestheprojectapprovalrequirementsthatwillinfluencethemanagementoftheprojectcosts.見(jiàn)2.1.5節(jié)。會(huì)影響規(guī)劃成本管理過(guò)程的事業(yè)環(huán)境因素包括（但不限于DescribedinSection2.1.5.TheenterpriseenvironmentalfactorsthatinfluencethePlanCostManagementprocessinclude,butarenotlimitedto:能影響成本管理的組織文化和組織結(jié)市場(chǎng)條件，決定著在當(dāng)?shù)丶叭蚴袌?chǎng)上可獲取哪些產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)和成果貨幣匯率，用于換算發(fā)生在多個(gè)國(guó)家的項(xiàng)目成本Currencyexchangeratesforprojectcostssourcedfrommorethanone發(fā)布的商業(yè)信息。經(jīng)?？梢詮纳虡I(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中獲取資源成本費(fèi)率及相關(guān)信息。這些數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)動(dòng)態(tài)具有相應(yīng)技能的人力資源的成本數(shù)據(jù)，也提供材料與設(shè)備的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)成本數(shù)據(jù)，還可以從賣(mài)方公布的價(jià)格中獲取相關(guān)信息Publishedcommercialinformationsuchasresourcecostrateinformationisoftenavailablefromcommercialdatabasesthattrackskillsandhumanresourcecosts,andprovidestandardcostsformaterialandequipment.Publishedsellerpricelistsareanothersourceofinformation;and項(xiàng)目管理信息系統(tǒng)，可為管理成本提供多種方案組織過(guò)程資產(chǎn)organizationalProcess見(jiàn)2.1.4節(jié)。會(huì)影響規(guī)劃成本管理的組織過(guò)程資產(chǎn)包括（但不限于DescribedinSection2.1.4.TheorganizationalprocessassetsthatinfluencethePlanCostManagementprocessinclude,butarenotlimitedto:財(cái)務(wù)控制程序（如定期報(bào)告、費(fèi)用與支付、會(huì)計(jì)編碼及標(biāo)準(zhǔn)合同條款等）；Financialcontrolsprocedures(e.gtimereporting,requiredexpenditureanddisbursementreviews,accountingcodes,andstandardcontractprovisions);歷史信息和經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)知識(shí)庫(kù)財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)現(xiàn)有的、正式的和非正式的、與成本估算和預(yù)算有關(guān)的政策、程序和指南規(guī)劃成本管理工具與技PlancostManagement:toolsand專家判斷Expert基于歷史信息，專家判斷可以對(duì)項(xiàng)目環(huán)境及以往類似項(xiàng)目的信息提供有價(jià)值的見(jiàn)解。專家判斷還可以對(duì)是否需要聯(lián)合使用多種方法，以及如何協(xié)調(diào)方法之間的差異提出建議。Expetjudgment,guidedbyhitoialinformaion,proidesvaluableinightaboutheenironentandinformationfrompriorsimilarprojects.Expertjudgmentcanalsosuggestwhethertocombinemethodsandhowtoreconciledifferencesbetweenthem.針對(duì)正在開(kāi)展的活動(dòng)，基于某應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域、知識(shí)領(lǐng)域、學(xué)科、行業(yè)等的專業(yè)知識(shí)而做出的判斷，應(yīng)該用于制定成本管理計(jì)劃。Judgmentbaseduponexpertiseinanapplicationarea,KnowledgeArea,discipline,industry,etc.,asappropriatefortheactivitybeingperformedshouldbeusedindevelothecostmanagementplan.分析技術(shù)ytical在制定成本管理計(jì)劃時(shí)，可能需要選擇項(xiàng)目籌資的方法，如自籌、股權(quán)投資借貸投資等。成本管理計(jì)劃中可能也需詳細(xì)說(shuō)明籌集項(xiàng)目資源的方法，如、采購(gòu)、租用或租賃。如同會(huì)影響項(xiàng)目的其他財(cái)務(wù)決策，這些決策可能對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生影響。Deelothecostmanagementplanmayinvolvechooingstrategicopionstofundtheprojectsuchaself-funding,fundingwithequity,orfundingwithdebt.Thecostmanagementplanmayalsodetailwaystofinanceprojectresourcessuchasmaking,purchasing,renting,orleasing.Thesedecisions,likeotherfinancialdecisionsaffectingtheproject,mayaffectprojectscheduleand/orrisks.組織政策和程序可能影響采用哪種財(cái)務(wù)技術(shù)進(jìn)行決策。可用的技術(shù)包括（但不限于：回收期、投資回報(bào)率、內(nèi)部率、現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)和凈現(xiàn)值。Organizationalpoliciesandproceduresmayinfluencewhichfinancialtechniquesareemployedinthesedecisions.Techniquesmayinclude(butarenotlimitedto):paybackperiod,returnoninvestment,internalrateofreturn,discountedcashflow,andnetpresentvalue.會(huì)議項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)可能舉行規(guī)劃會(huì)議來(lái)制定成本管理計(jì)劃。參會(huì)人員可能包括項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理、項(xiàng)目發(fā)起人、選定的項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)成員、選定的干系人、項(xiàng)目成本，以及其他必要人員。Projectteamsmayholdplanningmeetingstodevelopthecostmanagementplan.Attendeesatthesemeetingsmayincludetheprojectmanager,theprojectsponsor,selectedprojectteammembers,selectedstakeholders,anyonewithresponsibilityforprojectcosts,andothersas規(guī)劃成本管理：輸出PlancostManagement:成本管理計(jì)劃costManagement成本管理計(jì)劃是項(xiàng)目管理計(jì)劃的組成部分，描述將如何規(guī)劃、安排和控制項(xiàng)目成本。成本管理過(guò)程及其工具與技術(shù)應(yīng)記錄在成本管理計(jì)劃中。Thecostmanagementplanisacomponentoftheprojectmanagementplananddescribeshowthecostswillbeplanned,structured,andcontrolled.Thecostmanagementprocessesandtheirassociatedtoolsandtechniquesareedinthecostmanagementplan.例如，在成本管理計(jì)劃中規(guī)定Forexample,thecostmanagementplancanestablishthe計(jì)量單位。需要規(guī)定每種資源的計(jì)量單位，例如用于測(cè)量時(shí)間的人時(shí)數(shù)、人天數(shù)或周數(shù)，用于計(jì)量數(shù)量的米、升、噸、千米或立方碼，或者用貨幣表示的總價(jià)。Unitsofmeasure. Eachunitusedinmeasurements(suchasstaffhours,staffdays,weeksfortimemeasures;ormeters,liters,tons,kilometers,orcubicyardsfortymeasures;orlumpsumincurrencyform)isdefinedforeachoftheresources.精確度。根據(jù)活動(dòng)范圍和項(xiàng)目規(guī)模，設(shè)定成本估算向上或向下取整的程度（100.49取整為100，995.59取整為1000Levelofprecision. Thedegreetowhichactivitycostestimateswillberoundedupordown(e.g.,US$100.49toUS$100,orUS$995.59toUS$1,000),basedonthescopeoftheactivitiesandmagnitudeoftheproject.準(zhǔn)確度。為活動(dòng)成本估算規(guī)定一個(gè)可接受的區(qū)間（如±10%，其中可能包括一定數(shù)量的應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備。Levelofaccuracy.Theacceptablerange(e.g.,±10%)usedindeterminingrealisticactivitycostestimatesisspecified,andmayincludeanamountforcontingencies;組織程序。工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)（見(jiàn)5.4節(jié)）為成本管理計(jì)劃提供了框架，以便據(jù)此規(guī)范地開(kāi)展成本估算、預(yù)算和控制。在項(xiàng)目成本核算中使用的WBS組件，稱為控制賬戶（CA。每個(gè)控制賬戶都有唯一的編碼或賬號(hào)，直接與執(zhí)行組織的會(huì)計(jì)制度相聯(lián)系。Organizationalprocedureslinks. Theworkbreakdownstructure(WBS)(Section5.4)providestheframeworkforthecostmanagementplan,allowingforconsistencywiththeestimates,budgets,andcontrolofcosts.TheWBScomponentusedfortheprojectcostaccountingiscalledthecontrolaccount.Eachcontrolaccountisassignedauniquecodeoraccountnumber(s)thatlinksdirectlytotheperformingorganization’saccountingsystem.控制臨界值。可能需要規(guī)定偏差臨界值，用于監(jiān)督成本績(jī)效。它是在需要采取某種措施前，允許出現(xiàn)的最大偏差。通常用偏離基準(zhǔn)計(jì)劃的百分?jǐn)?shù)來(lái)表示。 thresholds.Variancethresholdsformonitoringcostperformancemaybespecifiedtoindicateanagreed-uponamountofvariationtobeallowedbeforesomeactionneedstobetaken.Thresholdsare績(jī)效測(cè)量規(guī)則。需要規(guī)定用于績(jī)效測(cè)量的掙值管理（EVM）規(guī)則。例如，成本管理計(jì)劃應(yīng)該：Rulesofperformancemeasurement. Earnedvaluemanagement(EVM)rulesofperformancemeasurementareset.Forexample,thecostmanagementplanmay:定義WBS中用于績(jī)效測(cè)量的控制賬戶DefinethepointsintheWBSatwhichmeasurementofcontrolaccountswillbe確定擬用的掙值測(cè)量技術(shù)（如里程碑法、固定公式法、完成百分比法等）；Establishtheearnedvaluemeasurementtechniques(e.g.,weightedtones,fixed-formula,percentcomplete,etc.)tobeemployed;and規(guī)定方法，以及用于計(jì)算項(xiàng)目完工估算（EAC）的掙值管理公式，該公式計(jì)算出的結(jié)果可用于驗(yàn)證通過(guò)自下而上方法得出的完工估算。Specifytrackingmethodologiesandtheearnedvaluemanagementcomputationequationsforcalculatingprojectedestimateatcompletion(EAC)forecaststoprovideavaliditycheckonthebottom-upEAC.關(guān)于掙值管理的信息，參見(jiàn)《掙值管理實(shí)踐標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（PracticeStandards ValueManagement（第2版。Formorespecificinformationregardingearnedvaluemanagement,refertothePracticeStandardforEarnedValueManagement–SecondEdition.報(bào)告格式。需要規(guī)定各種成的格式和編制頻率過(guò)程描述。對(duì)其他每個(gè)成本管理過(guò)程進(jìn)行描述 Descriptionsofeachoftheothercostmanagementprocessesare其他細(xì)節(jié)。關(guān)于成本管理活動(dòng)的其他細(xì)節(jié)包括（但不限于對(duì)籌資方案的說(shuō)明處理匯率波動(dòng)的程序記錄項(xiàng)目成本的程序Estimate估算成本是對(duì)完成項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)所需進(jìn)行近似估算的過(guò)程。本過(guò)程的主要作用是，確EstimateCostsistheprocessofdeveloanapproximationofthemonetaryresourcesneededtocompleteprojectactivities.Thekeybenefitofthisprocessisthatitdeterminestheamountofcostrequiredtocompleteprojectwork.Theinputs,toolsandtechniques,andoutputsofthisprocessaredepictedinFigure7-4.Figure7-5depictsthedataflowdiagramoftheprocess.成本估算是在某特定時(shí)點(diǎn)，根據(jù)已知信息所做出的成本預(yù)測(cè)。在估算成本時(shí)，需要識(shí)和分析可用于啟動(dòng)與完成項(xiàng)目的備選成本方案；需衡備選成本方案并考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，如比較Costestimatesareapredictionthatisbasedontheinformationknownatagivenpointintime.Costestimatesincludetheidentificationandconsiderationofcostingalternativestoinitiateandcompletetheproject.Costtrade-offsandrisksshouldbeconsidered,suchasmakeversusbuy,buyversuslease,andthesharingofresourcesinordertoachieveoptimalcostsfortheproject.通常用某種貨幣單位（如、歐元、日元等）進(jìn)行成本估算，但有時(shí)也可采用其他計(jì)量單位，如人時(shí)數(shù)或人天數(shù)，以消除通貨膨脹的影響，便于成本比較。Costestimatesaregenerallyexpressedinunitsofsomecurrency(i.e.,dollars,euros,yen,etc.),althoughinsomeinstancesotherunitsofmeasure,suchasstaffhoursorstaffdays,areusedtofacilitatecomparisonsbyeliminatingtheeffectsofcurrencyfluctuations.在項(xiàng)目過(guò)程中，應(yīng)該隨著更詳細(xì)信息的呈現(xiàn)和假設(shè)條件的驗(yàn)證，對(duì)成本估算進(jìn)行優(yōu)化。在項(xiàng)目生命周期中，項(xiàng)目估算的準(zhǔn)確性將隨著項(xiàng)目的進(jìn)展而逐步提高。例如，在啟動(dòng)階段可得出項(xiàng)目的粗略量級(jí)估算（Rough Order of Magnitude，ROM，其區(qū)間為?25%到 Costestimatesshouldbereviewedandrefinedduringthecourseoftheprojecttoreflectadditionaldetailasit esavailableandassumptionsaretested.Theaccuracyofaprojectestimatewillincreaseastheprojectprogressesthroughtheprojectlifecycle.Forexample,aprojectintheinitiationphasemayhavearoughorderofmagnitude(ROM)estimateintherangeof?25%to+75%.Laterintheproject,asmoreinformationisknown,definitiveestimatescouldnarrowtherangeofaccuracyto-5%to+10%.Insomeorganizations,thereareguidelinesforwhensuchrefinementscanbemadeandthedegreeofconfidenceoraccuracythatisexpected.本過(guò)程從其他知識(shí)領(lǐng)域的相關(guān)過(guò)程的輸出中獲取輸入信息。一旦獲取，所有信息都可作為全部成本管理過(guò)程的輸入。SourcesofinputinformationarederivedfromtheoutputsofprocessesinotherKnowledgeAreas.Oncereceived,allofthisinformationwillremainavailableasinputstoallofthecostmanagementprocesses.進(jìn)行成本估算，應(yīng)該考慮將向項(xiàng)目的全部資源，包括（但不限于）人工、材料、備、服務(wù)、設(shè)施，以及一些特殊的成本種類，如通貨膨脹補(bǔ)貼、融資成本或應(yīng)急成本。成本估算是對(duì)完成活動(dòng)所需資源的可能成本的量化評(píng)估。成本估算可在活動(dòng)層級(jí)呈現(xiàn)，也可以匯總形式呈現(xiàn)。Costsareestimatedforallresourcesthatwillbechargedtotheproject.Thisincludes,butisnotlimitedto,labor,materials,equipment,services,andfacilities,aswellasspecialcategoriessuchasaninflationallowance,costoffinancing,orcontingencycosts.Acostestimateisatativeassessmentofthelikelycostsforresourcesrequiredtocompletetheactivity.Costestimatesmaybepresentedattheactivitylevelorinsummaryform.估算成本：輸入 costs:成本管理計(jì)劃CostManagementDescribedinSection.Thecostmanagementplandefineshowprojectcostswillbemanagedandcontrolled.Itincludesthemethodusedandthelevelofaccuracyrequiredtoestimateactivitycost.人力資源管理計(jì)劃 resourceManagement見(jiàn)節(jié)。人力資源管理計(jì)劃提供了項(xiàng)目人員配備情況、人工費(fèi)率和相關(guān)/認(rèn)可方DescribedinSection.Thehumanresourcemanagementplanprovidesprojectstaffingnelrates,andrelatedrewards/recognition,whicharenecessarycomponentsfordevelotheprojectcost范圍基準(zhǔn)Scope范圍基準(zhǔn)包含以下內(nèi)Thescopebaselineiscomprisedofthe范圍說(shuō)明書(shū)。范圍說(shuō)明書(shū)（節(jié)）提供了產(chǎn)品描述、驗(yàn)收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、主要可交付Projectscopestatement. Theprojectscopestatement(Section)providestheproductdescription,acceptancecriteria,keydeliverables,projectboundaries,assumptions,andconstraintsabouttheproject.Onebasicassumptionthatneedstobemadewhenestimatingprojectcostsiswhethertheestimateswillbelimitedtodirectprojectcostsonlyorwhethertheestimateswillalsoincludeindirectcosts.Indirectcostsarethosecoststhatcannotbedirectlytracedtoaspecificprojectandthereforewillbeaccumulatedandallocatedequitablyovermultipleprojectsbysomeapprovedandedaccountingprocedure.Oneofthemostcommonconstraintsformanyprojectsisalimitedprojectbudget.Examplesofotherconstraintsarerequireddeliverydates,availableskilledresources,andorganizationalpolicies.工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)。工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)（5.4節(jié)）指明了項(xiàng)目的全部組件之間及全部可交付Workbreakdownstructure. TheWBS(Section5.4)providestherelationshipsamongallthecomponentsoftheprojectandtheprojectdeliverables.WBS詞典。WBS詞典（節(jié)）提供了可交付成果的詳細(xì)信息，并描述了為產(chǎn)出可交付成果，WBS各組件所需進(jìn)行的工作。 dictionary.TheWBSdictionary(Section)providesdetailedinformationaboutthedeliverablesandadescriptionoftheworkforeachcomponentintheWBSrequiredtoproduceeachdeliverable.范圍基準(zhǔn)中可能還包括與合同和法律有關(guān)的信息，如健康、安全、安保、績(jī)效、環(huán)境、保險(xiǎn)、知識(shí)、執(zhí)照和證等。所有這些信息都應(yīng)該在進(jìn)行成本估算時(shí)加以考慮。Additionalinformationthatmaybefoundinthescopebaselinewithcontractualandlegalimplications,suchashealth,safety,security,performance,environmental,insurance,inlectualpropertyrights,licenses,andpermits.Allofthisinformationshouldbeconsideredwhendevelothecostestimates.項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度計(jì)劃Project見(jiàn) 節(jié)。項(xiàng)目工作所需的資源種類、數(shù)量和使用時(shí)間，都會(huì)對(duì)項(xiàng)目成本產(chǎn)生很大響。進(jìn)度活動(dòng)所需的資源及其使用時(shí)間，是本過(guò)程的重要輸入。在估算活動(dòng)資源過(guò)程（見(jiàn)64節(jié)）中，已經(jīng)估算出開(kāi)展進(jìn)度活動(dòng)所需的人員數(shù)量、人時(shí)數(shù)及材料和設(shè)備數(shù)量?；顒?dòng)資源估算與成本估算密切相關(guān)。如果項(xiàng)目預(yù)算中包括融資成本（如利息，或者，資源消耗取決于活動(dòng)持續(xù)時(shí)間的長(zhǎng)短，那么活動(dòng)持續(xù)時(shí)間估算（見(jiàn)6.53.1節(jié)）就會(huì)對(duì)成本估算產(chǎn)生影響。如果成本估算中包含時(shí)間敏感型成本，如通過(guò)工會(huì)集體簽訂定期勞資協(xié)議的員工或價(jià)格隨季節(jié)波動(dòng)的材料，那么活動(dòng)持續(xù)時(shí)間估算也會(huì)影響成本估算。DescribedinSection.Thetypeandtyofresourcesandtheamountoftimewhichthoseresourcesareappliedtocompletetheworkoftheprojectaremajorfactorsindeterminingtheprojectcost.Scheduleactivityresourcesandtheirrespectivedurationsareusedaskeyinputstothisprocess.EstimateActivityResources(Section6.4)involvesdeterminingtheavailabilityofstaff,thenumberofstaffhoursrequired,andtiesofmaterialandequipmentneededtoperformscheduleactivities.Itiscloselycoordinatedwithcostestimating.Activitydurationestimates(Section)willaffectcostestimatesonanyprojectwheretheprojectbudgetincludesanallowanceforthecostoffinancing(includinginterestcharges)andwhereresourcesareappliedperunitoftimeforthedurationoftheactivity.Activitydurationestimatescanalsoaffectcostestimatesthathavetime-sensitivecostsincludedinthem,suchasunionlaborwithregularlyexpiringcollectivebargainingagreementsormaterialswithseasonalcostvariations.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)登記冊(cè) 見(jiàn)節(jié)。通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)登記冊(cè)，考慮應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所需的成本。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)既可以是也可以是機(jī)會(huì)，通常會(huì)對(duì)活動(dòng)及整個(gè)項(xiàng)目的成本產(chǎn)生影響。一般而言，在項(xiàng)目遇到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件后，項(xiàng)目的近期成本將會(huì)增加，有時(shí)還會(huì)造成項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度延誤。同樣，項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)?wèi)?yīng)該對(duì)可能給業(yè)務(wù)帶來(lái)好處（如直接降低活動(dòng)成本或加快項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度）的潛在機(jī)會(huì)保持敏感。DecibedinSecion12.3.1.Theiskregistershouldbereiewedtooniderikresponsecoss.iskwhichcanbeeitherthreatsoropportunities,typicallyhaveanimpactonbothactivityandoverallprojectcosts.Asageneralrule,whentheprojectexperiencesanegativeriskevent,thenear-termcostoftheprojectwillusuallyincrease,andtherewillsometimesbeadelayintheprojectschedule.Inasimilarway,theprojectteamshouldbesensitivetopotentialopportunitiesthatcanbenefitthebusinesseitherbydirectlyreducingactivitycostsorbyacceleratingtheschedule.見(jiàn)2.1.5節(jié)。會(huì)影響估算成本過(guò)程的事業(yè)環(huán)境因素包括（但不限于DescribedinSection2.1.5.TheenterpriseenvironmentalfactorsthatinfluencetheEstimateCostsprocessinclude,butarenotlimitedto:市場(chǎng)條件?？梢詮氖袌?chǎng)上獲得什么產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)和成果，可以從誰(shuí)那里、以什么條件獲得。地區(qū)和/或全球性的供求情況會(huì)顯著影響資源成本。Marketconditions.Theseconditionsdescribewhatproducts,services,andresultsareavailableinthemarket,fromwhom,andunderwhattermsandconditions.Regionaland/orglobalsupplyanddemandconditionsgreatlyinfluenceresourcecosts.發(fā)布的商業(yè)信息。經(jīng)?？梢詮纳虡I(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中獲取資源成本費(fèi)率及相關(guān)信息。這些數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)動(dòng)態(tài)具有相應(yīng)技能的人力資源的成本數(shù)據(jù)，也提供材料與設(shè)備的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)成本數(shù)據(jù)，還可以從賣(mài)方公布的價(jià)格中獲取相關(guān)信息Publishedcommercialinformation.Resourcecostrateinformationisoftenavailablefromcommercialdatabasesthattrackskillsandhumanresourcecosts,andprovidestandardcostsformaterialandequipment.Publishedsellerpricelistsareanothersourceofinformation.組織過(guò)程資 organizationalProcess見(jiàn)2.1.4節(jié)。會(huì)影響估算成本過(guò)程的組織過(guò)程資產(chǎn)包括（但不限于DescribedinSection2.1.4.TheorganizationalprocessassetsthatinfluencetheEstimateCostsprocessinclude,butarenotlimitedto:CostestimatingCostestimatingLessons估算成本：工具與技術(shù) costs:tools 專家判斷Expert基于歷史信息，專家判斷可以對(duì)項(xiàng)目環(huán)境及以往類似項(xiàng)目的信息提供有價(jià)值的見(jiàn)解。專家判斷還可以對(duì)是否聯(lián)合使用多種估算方法，以及如何協(xié)調(diào)方法之間的差異做出決定。類比估算ogous成本類比估算是指以過(guò)去類似項(xiàng)目的參數(shù)值（如范圍、成本、預(yù)算和持續(xù)時(shí)間等）或模指標(biāo)（如尺寸、重量和復(fù)雜性等）為基礎(chǔ)，來(lái)估算當(dāng)前項(xiàng)目的同類參數(shù)或指標(biāo)。在估算成本時(shí)，這項(xiàng)技術(shù)以過(guò)去類似項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際成本為依據(jù)，來(lái)估算當(dāng)前項(xiàng)目的成本。這是一種粗略的估算方法，有時(shí)需要根據(jù)項(xiàng)目復(fù)雜性方面的已知差異進(jìn)行調(diào)整。ogouscostestimatingusesthevaluessuchasscope,cost,budget,anddurationormeasuresofscalesuchassize,weight,andcomplexityfromaprevious,similarprojectasthebasisforestimatingthesameparameterormeasurementforacurrentproject.Whenestimatingcosts,thistechniquereliesontheactualcostofprevious,similarprojectsasthebasisforestimatingthecostofthecurrentproject.Itisagrossvalueestimatingapproach,sometimesadjustedforknowndifferencesinprojectcomplexity.在項(xiàng)目詳細(xì)信息不足時(shí)，例如在項(xiàng)目的早期階段，就經(jīng)常使用這種技術(shù)來(lái)估算成本數(shù)值。該方法綜合利用歷史信息和專家判斷。ogouscostestimatingisfrequentlyusedtoestimateavaluewhenthereisalimitedamountofdetailedinformationabouttheproject,forexample,intheearlyphasesofaproject.ogouscostestimatinguseshistoricalinformationandexpertjudgment.相對(duì)于其他估算技術(shù)，類比估算通常成本較低、耗時(shí)較少，但準(zhǔn)確性也較低。可以針整個(gè)項(xiàng)目或項(xiàng)目中的某個(gè)部分，進(jìn)行類比估算。類比估算可以與其他估算方法聯(lián)合使用。如果以往項(xiàng)目是本質(zhì)上而不只是表面上類似，并且從事估算的項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)成員具備必要的專業(yè)知識(shí)，那么類比估算就最為可靠。ogouscostestimatingisgenerallylesscostlyandlesstimeconsumingthanothertechniques,butitisalsogenerallylessaccurate.ogouscostestimatescanbeappliedtoatotalprojectortosegmentsofaproject,inconjunctionwithotherestimatingmethods.ogousestimatingismostreliablewhenthepreviousprojectsaresimilarinfactandnotjustinappearance,andtheprojectteammemberspreparingtheestimateshavetheneeded參數(shù)估算Parametric參數(shù)估算是指利用歷史數(shù)據(jù)之間的統(tǒng)計(jì)關(guān)系和其他變量（如建筑施工中的平方英尺，進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目工作的成本估算。參數(shù)估算的準(zhǔn)確性取決于參數(shù)模型的成熟度和基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)的可靠性。參數(shù)估算可以針對(duì)整個(gè)項(xiàng)目或項(xiàng)目中的某個(gè)部分，并可與其他估算方法聯(lián)合使用。Parametricestimatingusesastatisticalrelationshipbetweenrelevanthistoricaldataandothervariables(e.g.,squarefootageinconstruction)tocalculateacostestimateforprojectwork.Thistechniquecanproducehigherlevelsofaccuracydependinguponthesophisticationandunderlyingdatabuiltintothemodel.Parametriccostestimatescanbeappliedtoatotalprojectortosegmentsofaproject,inconjunctionwithotherestimatingmethods.自下而上估算Bottom-up自下而上估算是對(duì)工作組成部分進(jìn)行估算的法。首先對(duì)單個(gè)工作包或活動(dòng)的成進(jìn)行最具體、細(xì)致的估算；然后把這些細(xì)節(jié)性成本向上匯總或“滾動(dòng)”到更次，用于后續(xù)報(bào)告和。自下而上估算的準(zhǔn)確性及其本身所需的成本，通常取決于單個(gè)活動(dòng)或工作包的規(guī)模和復(fù)雜程度。Bottom-upestimatingisamethodofestimatingacomponentofwork.Thecostofindividualworkpackagesactivitiesisestimatedtothegreatestlevelofspecifieddetail.Thedetailedcostisthensummarizedor“rolledup”tohigherlevelsforsubsequentreportingandtrackingpurposes.Thecostandaccuracyofbottom-upcostestimatingaretypicallyinfluencedbythesizeandcomplexityoftheindividualactivityorwork三點(diǎn)估算three-Point通過(guò)考慮估算中的不確定性與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，使用三種估算值來(lái)界定活動(dòng)成本的近似區(qū)間，可以提高活動(dòng)成本估算的準(zhǔn)確性：Theaccuracyofsingle-pointactivitycostestimatesmaybeimprovedbyconsideringestimationuncertaintyandriskandusingthreeestimatestodefineanapproximaterangeforanactivity’scost:（cMMostlikely(cM).Thecostoftheactivity,basedonrealisticeffortassessmentfortherequiredworkandanypredictedexpenses.最樂(lè)觀成本（cO?；诨顒?dòng)的最好情況，所得到的活動(dòng)成本Optimistic(cO).Theactivitycostbased ysisofthebest-casescenarioforthe最悲觀成本（cP。基于活動(dòng)的情況，所得到的活動(dòng)成本 (cP).Theactivitycostbased ysisoftheworst-casescenarioforthe基于活動(dòng)成本在三種估算值區(qū)間內(nèi)的假定分布情況，使用公式來(lái)計(jì)算預(yù)期成本（cE?；谌欠植己头植嫉膬蓚€(gè)常用公式如下：Dependingontheassumeddistributionofvalueswithintherangeofthethreeestimatestheexpectedcost,canbecalculatedusingaformula.Twocommonlyusedformulasaretriangularandbetadistributions.TheformulascE(cOcMcP cE=(cO+cM+cP)/cE(cO4cMcPBetadistribution(fromatraditional ysis).cE=(cO+4cM+cP)/基于三點(diǎn)的假定分布計(jì)算出期望成本，并說(shuō)明期望成本的不確定區(qū)間Costestimatesbasedonthreepointswithanassumeddistributionprovideanexpectedcostandclarifytherangeofuncertaintyaroundtheexpectedcost.儲(chǔ)備分析reserve為應(yīng)對(duì)成本的不確定性，成本估算中可以包括應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備（有時(shí)。應(yīng)儲(chǔ)備是包含在成本基準(zhǔn)內(nèi)的一部分預(yù)算，用來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)已經(jīng)接受的已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以及已經(jīng)制定應(yīng)急或減輕措施的已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備通常是預(yù)算的一部分，用來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)那些會(huì)影響項(xiàng)目的“已知—未知”風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。例如，可以預(yù)知有些項(xiàng)目可交付成果需要返工，卻不知道返工的工作量是多少?？梢灶A(yù)留應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)這些未知數(shù)量的返工工作?？梢詾槟硞€(gè)具體活動(dòng)建立應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備，也可以為整個(gè)項(xiàng)目建立應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備，還可以同時(shí)建立。應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備可取成本估算值的某一百分比、costuncertainty.Contingencyreservesarethebudgetwithinthecostbaselinethatisallocatedforidentifiedrisks,whichareacceptedandforwhichcontingentormitigatingresponsesaredeveloped.Contingencyreservesareoftenviewedasthepartofthebudgetintendedtoaddressthe“known-unknowns”thatcanaffectaproject.Forexample,reworkforsomeprojectdeliverablescouldbeanticipated,whiletheamountofthisreworkisunknown.Contingencyreservesmaybeestimatedtoaccountforthisunknownamountofrework.Contingencyreservescanprovideforaspecificactivity,forthewholeproject,orboth.Thecontingencyreservemaybeapercentageoftheestimatedcost,afixednumber,ormaybedevelopedbyusingtative ysismethods.隨著項(xiàng)目信息越來(lái)越明確，可以動(dòng)用、減少或取消應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備。應(yīng)該在成本文件中清楚地列出應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備。應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備是成本基準(zhǔn)的一部分，也是項(xiàng)目整體需求的一部分。Asmorepreciseinformationabouttheproject esavailable,thecontingencyreservemaybeused,reduced,oreliminated.Contingencyshouldbeclearlyidentifiedincostation.Contingencyreservesarepartofthecostbaselineandtheoverallfundingrequirementsfortheproject.也可以估算項(xiàng)目所需的管理儲(chǔ)備。管理儲(chǔ)備是為了管理控制的目的而特別留出的項(xiàng)目算，用來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)項(xiàng)目范圍中不可預(yù)見(jiàn)的工作。管理儲(chǔ)備用來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)會(huì)影響項(xiàng)目的“未知—未知”風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。管理儲(chǔ)備不包括在成本基準(zhǔn)中，但屬于項(xiàng)目總預(yù)算和需求的一部分。當(dāng)動(dòng)用管理儲(chǔ)備資助不可預(yù)見(jiàn)的工作時(shí)，就要把動(dòng)用的管理儲(chǔ)備增加到成本基準(zhǔn)中，從而導(dǎo)致成本基準(zhǔn)變更。EstimatesmayalsobeproducedfortheamountofmanagementreservetobefundedfortheManagementreservesareanamountoftheprojectbudgetwithheldformanagementcontrolpurposesandareforunforeseenworkthatiswithinscopeoftheproject.Managementreservesareintendedtoaddressthe“unknownunknowns”thatcanaffectaproject.Themanagementreserveisnotincludedinthecostbaselinebutispartoftheoverallprojectbudgetandfundingrequirements.Whenanamountofmanagementreservesisusedtofundunforeseenwork,theamountofmanagementreserveusedisaddedtothecostbaseline,thusrequiringanapprovedchangetothecostbaseline.質(zhì)量成本（COQ）costofQuality見(jiàn)Assumptionsaboutcostsofquality(Section)maybeusedtopreparetheactivitycost項(xiàng)目管理軟件ProjectManagement項(xiàng)目管理應(yīng)用軟件、電子表單、模擬和統(tǒng)計(jì)工具等，可用來(lái)輔助成本估算。這些工具能簡(jiǎn)化某些成本估算技術(shù)的使用，使人們能快速考慮多種成本估算方案。usedtoassistwithcostestimating.Suchtoolscansimplifytheuseofsomecost-estimatingtechniquesandtherebyfacilitaterapidconsiderationofcostestimatealternatives.賣(mài)方投標(biāo)分析VendorBid在成本估算過(guò)程中，可能需要根據(jù)合格賣(mài)方的投標(biāo)情況，分析項(xiàng)目成本。在用競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性標(biāo)選擇賣(mài)方的項(xiàng)目中，項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)需要開(kāi)展額外的成本估算工作，以便各項(xiàng)可交付成果的價(jià)格，并計(jì)算出組成項(xiàng)目最終總成本的各分項(xiàng)成本。Costestimatingmethodsmayinclude ysisofwhattheprojectshouldcost,basedontheresponsivebidsfromqualifiedvendors.Whenprojectsareawardedtoavendorundercompetitiveprocesses,additionalcostestimatingworkmayberequiredoftheprojectteamtoexaminethepriceofindividualdeliverablesandtoderiveacostthatsupportsthefinaltotalprojectcost.群體決策技術(shù) decision-Making基于團(tuán)隊(duì)的方法（如頭腦風(fēng)暴、德?tīng)柗萍夹g(shù)或名義小組技術(shù)）可以調(diào)動(dòng)團(tuán)隊(duì)成員的參與，以提高估算的準(zhǔn)確度，并提高對(duì)估算結(jié)果的責(zé)任感。選擇一組與技術(shù)工作密切相關(guān)的人員參與估算過(guò)程，可以獲取額外的信息，得到更準(zhǔn)確的估算。另外，讓成員親自參與估算，能夠提高他們對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)估算的責(zé)任感。Team-basedapproaches,suchasbrainstorming,theDelphiornominalgrouptechniques,areusefulforengagingteammemberstoimproveestimateaccuracyandcommitmenttotheemergingestimates.Byinvolvingastructuredgroupofpeoplewhoareclosetothetechnicalexecutionofworkintheestimationprocess,additionalinformationisgainedandmoreaccurateestimatesareobtained.Additionally,whenpeopleareinvolvedintheestimationprocess,theircommitmenttowardsmeetingtheresultingestimatesincreases.估算成本：輸出 costs:活動(dòng)成本Activitycost活動(dòng)成本估算是對(duì)完成項(xiàng)目工作可能需要的成本的量化估算。成本估算可以是匯總的詳細(xì)分列的。成本估算應(yīng)該覆蓋活動(dòng)所使用的全部資源，包括（但不限于）直接人工、材料、設(shè)備、服務(wù)、設(shè)施、，以及一些特殊的成本種類，如融資成本（包括利息、通貨膨脹補(bǔ)貼、匯率或成本應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備。如果間接成本也包含在項(xiàng)目估算中，則可在活動(dòng)層次或更高層次上計(jì)列間接成本。work.Costestimatescanbepresentedinsummaryformorindetail.Costsareestimatedforallresourcesthatareappliedtotheactivitycostestimate.Thisincludes,butisnotlimitedto,directlabor,materials,equipment,services,facilities,informationtechnology,andspecialcategoriessuchascostoffinancing(includinginterestcharges),aninflationallowance,exchangerates,oracostcontingencyreserve.Indirectcosts,iftheyareincludedintheprojectestimate,canbeincludedattheactivitylevelorathigherlevels.估算Basisof成本估算所需的支持信息的數(shù)量和種類，因應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域而異。不論其詳細(xì)程度如何，支持性文件都應(yīng)該清晰、完整地說(shuō)明成本估算是如何得出的。Theamountandtypeofadditionaldetailssupportingthecostestimatevarybyapplicationarea.Regardlessofthelevelofdetail,thesupportingationshouldprovideaclearandcompleteunderstandingofhowthecostestimatewasderived.活動(dòng)成本估算的支持信息可包括Supportingdetailforactivitycostestimatesmay關(guān)于估算依據(jù)的文件（如估算是如何編制的ationofthebasisoftheestimate(i.e.,howitwas關(guān)于全部假設(shè)條件的文件關(guān)于各種已知制約因素的文件ationofanyknown對(duì)估算區(qū)間的說(shuō)明（如“10000歐元±10%”就說(shuō)明了預(yù)期成本的所在區(qū)間；Indicationoftherangeofpossibleestimates(e.g., €10,000(±10%)toindicate