農(nóng)場收入的變化和勞動力的供應(yīng)

1、本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目：Farm Income Variability And The Supply Of Off-Farm Labor 出 處： Zhongguo shehui kexue, 1999 , no. 2 作 者： Ashok K. Mishra And Barry k.If farmers are risk averse, greater farm income variability should increase off-farm labor supply. This effect is confirmed for a sample of Kansas farmers

2、. Off-farm employment of farmers and their spouses is also found to be significantly influenced by farm experience, off-farm work experience, farm size, leverage, efficiency, and farm-specific education. In addition, farm operators and spouses who receive significant income support through governmen

3、t farm programs are less likely to work off the farm. This may suggest that policy changes reducing farm income support payments may increase off-farm employment of farmers and their spouses. Key words: income variability, off-farm labor supply, risk. The total number of farms in the United States d

4、ecreased by 63.5% between 1950 and 1993. Over the same period, the total number of farm operators decreased by 18.9% (U.S. Department of Commerce). The primary reasons for these changes are that the supply of agricultural prod-ucts grew faster (due to technical change) than de-mand and relative wage

5、 rates rose in nonfarm sec-tors. These changes were paralleled by signifi-cantly greater work off the farm by U.S. farmers. In 1992, over 83% of U.S. farmers worked off the farm more than 100 days per year, up from 62% in 1974 (U.S. Department of Commerce). Economic theory maintains that risk-neutra

6、l farmers will divide their labor supply between farm and nonfarm employment opportunities such that expected marginal returns are equal-ized. If expected marginal returns are greater in one opportunity, more labor will be devoted to that alternative. However, if producers are risk averse and percei

7、ve the variance of wages (or earnings) to be greater in one occupation than another, they will allocate less time to the risky job and will be willing to accept lower wages in the less risky alternative. Changes in the riski-ness riski-ness of employment alternatives thus change the allocation of la

8、bor. The 1980s are com-monly perceived to have been a volatile period for U.S. agriculture. Farm earnings, debt, and asset holdings were highly variable in the early 1980s. Such changes brought about increased variability of farm wages and thus may have in-fluenced off-farm labor supplies. Schultz p

9、ointed out that off-farm employment is an important means by which farmers and their spouses may attempt to reduce the vari-ance of total income. Recent studies have shown that off-farm employment is influenced by a number of demographic and economic fac-tors. However, limited attention has been giv

10、en to the role of farm income variability in empiri-cal studies. In a survey of farmers' attitudes and motivations, Barlett found that the primary rea-son that farmers worked off the farm was the variability, risk, and uncertainty associated with farm income. However, her analysis did not ex-pli

11、citly model off-farm labor supply. Sander (1986) found that total income was signifi-cantly less variable when farmers and their spouses worked off the farm. Rosenfeld sug-gested that off-farm work by farm wives was a means of responding to the riskiness of agricul-tural income by diversifying incom

12、e sources. Huffman found that the cross-sectional variance of gross farm sales was significantly correlated with off-farm labor supply. However, in his cross-sectional analysis of county-average data, the variance of sales represented size-distribu-tion effects rather than the volatility of income o

13、ver time. Furtan, Van Kooten, and Thompsonfound that the net worth of farm households was a significant determinant of off-farm labor supply. However, their study did not consider the variation of worth or income. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of farm income variability on th

14、e off-farm labor supply decisions of a sample of Kansas farmers and their spouses. The analysis applies Tobit estimation techniques to a consid-eration of off-farm labor supply. Recent re-search by Huffman and Lange and by Lass and Gempesaw has argued that the off-farm labor supply decisions of farm

15、ers and their spouses are jointly determined. In this light, an empiri-cal model that allows for such joint decision making is estimated using a simplified simulta-neous-equations Tobit estimator. Empirical ApplicationThis study utilizes data collected from a survey of 1,963 Kansas farm households i

16、n September 1992. The survey data were matched to farm records in the Kansas Farm Management Asso-ciation data bank. Of the 1,963 farms surveyed, 618 surveys were returned. Farms that did not have income records for at least eight of the preceding ten years were dropped from the sample. In addition,

17、 several farms were dropped from the sample because of incomplete survey responses or farm records. This left a total of 300 farms, most of which were observed in both 1991 and 1992.5 In total, 599 observations were used in the analysis. Summary statistics and definitions of the variables utilized i

18、n the analysis are presented in table 1. In light of the potential endogeneity of labor supply decisions of farmers and their spouses, the bootstrapped simultaneous-equation Tobit estimator (2,000 replications) was applied. The empirical models related the total number of hours worked per year to th

19、e observable farm and operator variables. Off-farm labor supply equations were estimated for both the farm op-erator and the operator's spouse. Parameter es-timates, derivatives, and summary statistics are presented in table 2. In contrast to the results of Huffman and Lange and of Lass and Gemp

20、esaw, the results do not appear to suggest that the labor supply decisions of farmers and their spouses are jointly determined, at least for this sample. The spouses' off-farm labor effort does not appear to significantly influence the operator's supply of labor to off-farm employ-ment activ

21、ities. Likewise, the farmer's hours worked off the farm do not significantly influ-ence the off-farm labor supply of spouses. An important result is that farm income vari-ability, as represented by the coefficient of variation on farm income, has a significant positive effect on the off-farm lab

22、or supply of farmers. This result confirms expectations in that increases in the variability of farm earnings evoke significant increases in the off-farm labor supply of farmers. A 10% increase in the coeffi-cient of variation for farm earnings increases the expected value of off-farm labor supply b

23、ythe bootstrapped simultaneous-equation Tobit estimator (2,000 replications) was applied. The empirical models related the total number of hours worked per year to the observable farm and operator variables. Off-farm labor supply equations were estimated for both the farm op-erator and the operator&

24、#39;s spouse. Parameter es-timates, derivatives, and summary statistics are presented in table 2. In contrast to the results of Huffman and Lange and of Lass and Gempesaw, the results do not appear to suggest that the labor supply decisions of farmers and their spouses are jointly determined, at lea

25、st for this sample. The spouses' off-farm labor effort does not appear to significantly influence the operator's supply of labor to off-farm employ-ment activities. Likewise, the farmer's hours worked off the farm do not significantly influ-ence the off-farm labor supply of spouses. An i

26、mportant result is that farm income vari-ability, as represented by the coefficient of variation on farm income, has a significant positive effect on the off-farm labor supply of farmers. This result confirms expectations in that increases in the variability of farm earnings evoke significant increa

27、ses in the off-farm labor supply of farmers. A 10% increase in the coeffi-cient of variation for farm earnings increases the expected value of off-farm labor supply byalmost twenty-one hours per year for farmers. In contrast, farm income variation is not statis-tically significant in the labor suppl

28、y function for spouses. Years of farm experience is a statistically sig-nificant determinant of the off-farm labor sup-ply of farmers and their spouses. Confirming expectations, more farming experience corre-sponds to less work off the farm. This likely re-flects the fact that farming experience bui

29、lds farming-specific human capital and thus raises farming's relative wages. Counter to expecta-tions, education does not have a significant ef-fect on the off-farm labor supply of farmers or their spouses. This may suggest, at least for this sample, that marginal returns from academic education

30、 are the same in both farm and non-farm employment activities. Off-farm work ex-perience is significantly correlated with off-farm work for both the operator and spouse. Further, the effect of off-farm experience on off-farm labor supply is relatively large. An ad-ditional year of off-farm experienc

31、e increases off-farm labor supply by 17 hours per year for the farmer and 42.5 hours per year for the spouse. More off-farm experience implies a greater accumulation of human capital specific to off-farm work and thus suggests larger rela-tive returns to off-farm work. Several farm characteristics a

32、re significant determinants of the off-farm labor supply of farmers and their spouses. Farm size is nega-tively correlated with farmers' off-farm labor supply. Operators of larger farms likely have less flexibility in supplying labor to off-farm work activities than do operators of small farms.

33、In contrast, farm size is not significantly related to the off-farm work decisions of spouses. This result is consistent with the find-ings of Sumner and of Lass and Gempesaw. The leverage (debts to assets) position of the farm is a significant determinant of off-farm la-bor supplies. Farmers and sp

34、ouses who operatefarms with higher debt-to-asset ratios supply more labor to the off-farm sector. This result is consistent with the findings of Furtan, Van Kooten, and Thompson. Miles to the nearest town was not found to be a significant determi-nant of off-farm employment for either farmers or the

35、ir spouses.6 Government programs may lessen the need for off-farm labor activities by providing farmpres-ence of children in the farm household has a significant effect on the off-farm work activities of farmers and their spouses. Spouses from farm households with children under age fifteen are sign

36、ificantly less likely to work off the farm. In contrast, having children in the house-hold results in more labor being supplied to off-farm employment opportunities by farmers. Gronau suggested that women have a compara-tive advantage in homemaking and child care and thus that the presence of childr

37、en in a household was likely to imply less work outside of the home. A similar result was found by Furtan, Van Kooten, and Thompson and by Sander (1983). The finding that farmers with children tend to work more off the farm may reflect the possibility that such farmers work more in to-tal. Reed and

38、Harford found that workers with children tended to work more hours.Concluding Remarks In this paper we evaluate the role of farm in-come variability and a number of other factors in the off-farm labor supply decisions of a sample of Kansas farmers and their spouses. The analysis uses a simultaneous-

39、equations Tobit estimator that accounts for joint labor supply decisions. The results confirm that the off-farm labor supply of farmers is positively correlated with the riskiness of farm incomes. Although farm income risk has often been ad-vanced as an important factor determining off-farm labor su

40、pply (see, for example, Barlett), this study is one of the first to directly confirm this effect. Farmers who experienced greater farm income variability in the 1980s were sig-nificantly more likely to work off the farm. Farmers and spouses with more farming ex-perience were found to be less likely

41、to work off the farm. The off-farm labor supply of farm-ers and their spouses was positively correlated with off-farm experience. Although academic education was not significantly correlated with off-farm labor supply, farmers that had partici-pated in farm-specific educational activities were signi

42、ficantly less likely to work off the farm. Operators of larger farms were less likely to work off the farm. The off-farm labor supply of farmers and their spouses was found to be significantly higher for highly leveraged opera-tions. Spouses with small children were signifi-cantly less likely to wor

43、k off the farm. Finally, farmers and spouses on farms that received more government support were less likely to pursue off-farm employment. These results may have important implica-tions for farm policy. The 1996 farm bill re-placed price supports with direct payments which are to be phased out over

44、 the next seven years and eliminated acreage planting restric-tions. Such changes may increase price and in-come volatility. Our results imply that such changes may result in more off-farm work by both farmers and their spouses. Farm policy de-bates and research and extension efforts have given rela

45、tively little consideration to off-farm employment issues. Our results suggest that these issues may take on greater importance as farm policies adjust and more farm families seek off-farm employment. This may suggest a greater role for extension education and re-search programs that address off-far

46、m employ-ment issues.農(nóng)場收入的變化和勞動力的供應(yīng)摘要 如果農(nóng)民厭惡風險的變化,更大的農(nóng)場收入變化會增加勞動力的供應(yīng)。這種效果已經(jīng)被堪薩斯的農(nóng)民證實了。農(nóng)民就業(yè)打工和他們的配偶也發(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)的打工經(jīng)驗,工作經(jīng)驗,農(nóng)場規(guī)模、杠桿、高效、特殊的農(nóng)業(yè)教育有明顯影響。此外,農(nóng)場經(jīng)營者及他們的配偶通過政府農(nóng)業(yè)支持計劃從農(nóng)場接受重要的收入。這也許暗示政策的改變和農(nóng)場收入的多少可以激勵農(nóng)民和他們的配偶打工就業(yè)。關(guān)鍵詞：收入變化，勞動力供給，風險從1950年到1993年美國的農(nóng)場的總數(shù)減少到63.5%。在同一時期,農(nóng)場的運營商總?cè)藬?shù)降低到18.9%(美國商務(wù)部)。這些不良變化的主要原因是, 在

47、非農(nóng)業(yè)部門農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供給快速增長(由于技術(shù)變化的需求)和相對工資利率上升了。這些改變是與美國農(nóng)場的農(nóng)民相對應(yīng)的。1992年, 在美國農(nóng)場，其中100天共減少83%的農(nóng)民勞動力，在1974年高達62% (美國商務(wù)部)。經(jīng)濟理論主張:風險將會改變他們在農(nóng)業(yè)和非農(nóng)業(yè)之間的就業(yè)機會，因此他們期望平等的勞動供給與邊際收益。如果期望有更大的邊際收益，那么將有更多的勞動致力于這種選擇。然而,如果生產(chǎn)商有風險厭惡的意識，覺得工資(或收益)在一個職業(yè)比另一個更大，那么他們會安排更少的工作時間來冒險，或者更愿意接受較低的工資選擇風險較小的工作。風險系數(shù)的變化改變勞動的分配。20世紀80年代通常被認為美國農(nóng)業(yè)不穩(wěn)定的時

48、期。20世紀80年代的早期，農(nóng)場收入,債務(wù),資產(chǎn)持有量高度變化。這樣的變化帶來農(nóng)場的增加,從而可能影響工資和勞動力供給。舒爾茨指出打工就業(yè)是農(nóng)民一個重要手段，他們的配偶可能為了工資協(xié)方差降低總收入。最近的研究表明,就業(yè)打工受人口和經(jīng)濟因素的影響。在一項調(diào)查中,農(nóng)民的態(tài)度和動機，巴特萊特發(fā)現(xiàn)主要的原因是農(nóng)民不愿意去農(nóng)場工作是因為農(nóng)場收入變異性、風險和不確定性。然而,她的分析模型不明確勞動力就業(yè)。桑德爾(1986)發(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)民總收入變化顯著變小當農(nóng)民及其配偶不去農(nóng)場工作。羅森菲爾德提出從事農(nóng)業(yè)工作, 在應(yīng)對風險性來源多樣化的農(nóng)業(yè)收入，配偶在其中起到關(guān)鍵的影響?；舴蚵l(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)場銷售總值的橫向方差與勞動力的

49、估計值的顯著相關(guān)。然而,在地方均值橫斷面收入分析數(shù)據(jù), 不是隨著地區(qū)分布銷售代表的方差波動影響的，而是隨著時間的推移影響的。另外，湯普森發(fā)現(xiàn)運輸工具和農(nóng)戶的凈值決定勞動力供應(yīng)的一個重要因素。然而,他們的研究并沒有考慮價值和收入的變化。本研究的目的是評估堪薩斯農(nóng)民和他們的配偶判斷勞動力供給在農(nóng)場收入變化中的影響。分析應(yīng)用杜賓模型估計打工的勞動力的技術(shù)。最近的研究以霍夫曼和蘭格主張打工的勞動農(nóng)民提供的決定和他們的配偶共同決定。在這樣的觀點下,實證模型以允許這樣的雙方的決定制作是簡化估計同時使用杜賓估計方程。實證案例本研究采用了堪薩斯州的農(nóng)戶在1963到1992年九月的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)。 調(diào)查資料和農(nóng)場記錄

50、在堪薩斯農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)化經(jīng)營協(xié)會數(shù)據(jù)庫里。在1963年農(nóng)場的調(diào)查中,618戶被調(diào)查退換。那些沒有收入記錄的農(nóng)民，至少在前八到十年有樣品。此外,幾個農(nóng)場已經(jīng)下達樣稿,調(diào)查反應(yīng)了不完整的農(nóng)場記錄。總的來說，這300個農(nóng)場,其中大多數(shù)是觀察1991年都1992年的農(nóng)場,最近幾年的調(diào)查被用于分析了。根據(jù)勞動外生經(jīng)濟潛力的供應(yīng)，勞動力的供應(yīng)和他們的配偶息息相關(guān), 杜賓引導的估計模型(2000次重復)并將其應(yīng)用。與這經(jīng)驗模型相關(guān)的總?cè)藬?shù)工作時間可觀測到的農(nóng)場的操作變量。農(nóng)場的勞動供給與打工估計方程操作以及操作人員的配偶。參數(shù)估計,摘要統(tǒng)計衍生物，與此相對照的是霍夫曼定理。結(jié)果并沒有表現(xiàn)出決定勞動供給的是農(nóng)民和他

51、們的配偶，和對于共同決定的這個樣品。打工的配偶的勞動的努力似乎不會顯著影響經(jīng)營者提供的勞動就業(yè)活動。同樣的,農(nóng)民的勞動時間,與農(nóng)民的配偶無明顯影響。一個重要的結(jié)果是農(nóng)場收入與農(nóng)場收入系數(shù)的表示有明顯的變化，對農(nóng)民的勞動供給積極的影響。這個結(jié)果證實的期望值可能會喚起農(nóng)民外出打工的積極性，大大提高市場勞動力的供應(yīng)。在增加10%系數(shù)為農(nóng)業(yè)收入變化的增加而增加打工的期望值的勞動力每年幾乎21小時農(nóng)民。杜賓引導的估計的期望值在增加10%的變化看做為農(nóng)業(yè)收入的增加，勞動供給被(重復2000次)并將其應(yīng)用。相比之下, 農(nóng)業(yè)收入勞動供給變化中不顯著的因素是他們的配偶。多年的農(nóng)場經(jīng)驗達到統(tǒng)計上的顯著水平的決定性力量是勞動力農(nóng)民和他們的配偶。從農(nóng)場確認的期望值得出，好的工作相對應(yīng)的是更加豐富的農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)驗。這很可能是反映了這一事實,農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)驗會帶來人力資本,從而提高耕作的相對的