交通本科畢設(shè)外文翻譯

1、河北工程犬學(xué)土木工程學(xué)院畢業(yè)設(shè)計外文資料翻譯河北工程大學(xué)土木工程學(xué)院2014年6月4號未來個人運輸在世界大城市中的發(fā)展Schafer, Jacoby, Heywood and Waitz （ 2009）研究認為一個人平均每天花大約70分鐘的時間使用交通工具。這個時間預(yù)算在過去各個國家中是相對穩(wěn)定的。所以，富有的人開始傾向 于跑的更快，跑的更遠。而在不久的將來，全世界將會全面提高機動車的機動性。例如：Schafer and Victor （2000）推測，預(yù)計到2050年世界公民行駛的整體平均路程將比歐洲在1990年跑的整體平均路程多。從2000年到2050年，美國的平均機動性將提高2.6倍，達

2、到每年58000千米。Schafer and Victor（2000）還預(yù)估，到2050年印度的平均機動性將增加到每年6000千米，達到了歐洲1970年早期的水平?？偟膩碚f，人們在2000年能行駛230億公里，到了 2050年，有望增加到1050億公里。與此同時，城市人口正持續(xù)增大。根據(jù)World Bank （2002）研究，擁有1000多萬居民的大城市的數(shù)量有望在下一代翻倍。隨著城市的擴大和富裕， 車輛所有制以及其使用會快速增加, 相反，這將影響車輛的行速，加大道路擁擠和空氣污染。上述趨勢使得人們對大城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展交通展開了廣泛地討論。從廣義上講，城市交通的 可持續(xù)運動涉及到可操作性以及通過

3、公平高效手段產(chǎn)生的財富問題，同時還要維護身體健康, 將自然資源消耗和放射性污染減到最低。通常，廣泛使用公共交通和快速軌道交通是可行的。以提供廣泛的,例如：像東京，香港這樣的大城市，它們在私人車流行前就投資建設(shè)公共交通, 優(yōu)質(zhì)的公共交通系統(tǒng)。在這些城市，直到快速軌道交通的建立，公交遠行還一直處于高水平階 段。然而，個人交通工具已成為現(xiàn)代城市生活的一部分。不管是作為獨有的、分享的還是用于Kennedy et al. (2005)指出,飛行的交通工具，它們都給個人和社會帶來了很大的便利。因此, 對于城市的可持續(xù)發(fā)展來說，為新一代可持續(xù)個人交通工具做規(guī)劃是至關(guān)重要的。同時技術(shù)創(chuàng) 新和工業(yè)生態(tài)學(xué)觀念的應(yīng)

4、用，讓可持續(xù)個人交通工具成為了可能。另外，許多應(yīng)用智能型運輸系統(tǒng)將充分影響未來城市交通運輸。這些應(yīng)用程序包括需求管 理（需求感應(yīng)公共交通、汽車共乘共享、通路管制以及道路使用要求）、旅行計劃系統(tǒng)/實時旅游者信息、公共交通信號優(yōu)先系統(tǒng)。為了研究大城市中個人交通運輸目前及將來的狀況,本文選取了世界15大都市，根據(jù)地理位置劃分可如下所示:北美洲：芝加哥、紐約歐洲：倫敦、莫斯科、巴黎中美洲、南美洲：布宜諾斯艾利斯（阿根廷首都）、墨西哥城、里約熱內(nèi)盧、圣保羅印度：班加羅爾、加爾各答、新德里、孟買中國：香港、上海對于各個大城市來說， 一系列影響未來交通的關(guān)鍵指標是已檢定的。 主要包括人口和財富、私人電動客運

5、車輛、公共交通模式操作、運具選擇、旅行速度模式、交通事故。以人口和財富為列，因為人口的大小以及人群的富有程度起到至關(guān)重要的作用，因此對選定大城市的人口預(yù)期增長和大城市所在國的人均財富預(yù)期增長作出相應(yīng)比較。結(jié)果顯示，從 2005 年到 2025 年預(yù)計出現(xiàn)人口增長最高比例（超過預(yù)期30%）的地區(qū)有班加羅爾、加爾各答、新德里、孟買和上海，其次為適度增加12%-18%的芝加哥、香港、墨西哥城、里約熱內(nèi)盧和圣保羅，增長最慢的（低于12%）主要有布宜諾斯艾利斯、倫敦、莫斯科、紐約和巴黎?？傮w上說，人口增長最快的現(xiàn)象將出現(xiàn)在印度和中國。而從2010 年到 2014 年，預(yù)計收入增長最快的是中國，接著是印度

6、、俄羅斯、墨西哥、香港、巴西、英國、阿根廷、法國和美國。然后，對選定大城市的計劃策略進行分析，這些大城市主要有：紐約、倫敦、圣保羅、孟買和上海。同時，目前的結(jié)論不需完整描述一個策略。例如：在國家、地區(qū)和地方上，城市交通規(guī)劃會涉及很多政府的結(jié)構(gòu)，并且每個層次都有它自己的策略。所以，策略分析的主要目的是突出已定大城市在未來 10 到 20 年內(nèi)的主要目標、實施重點以及措施計劃。其關(guān)注點是計劃出行方式即該策略如何預(yù)想私人車輛、公共車輛以及非機動車輛在未來的作用。以紐約為列， 區(qū)域交通規(guī)劃的目標是從 2030 年開始， 滿足城市和地區(qū)的交通需求， 并提高行駛速度。 這個計劃策略包括改善交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)， 通過

7、更好的道路管理和擁擠定價來減少交通堵塞。具體措施如下： 1）提高關(guān)鍵擁堵路線的承載力2）提供新通勤火車進入曼哈頓3）增加到稠密地區(qū)的交通 4）改善、增加公共汽車服務(wù)5）改善當?shù)赝ㄇ诨疖嚨姆?wù)。另外，紐約近期推出了自己的戰(zhàn)略計劃。主要目標包括：例如城市交通事故減少50%；實施快速公交線路措施， 以提高全市汽車的行速； 到 2015 年使自行車通行翻一倍；啟動全市停車政策來管理空間，以此減少巡航和擁堵；采用完整街道設(shè)計模版為重建項目；提供更好的街道面等。最后，對選定城市的未來運輸方式進行了討論。主要包括個人車輛人均所有權(quán)、在城市內(nèi)部個人車輛行駛的人均距離、用于通勤的個人車輛行駛的人均距離、用于休閑

8、旅游的個人車輛行駛的人均距離、道路死亡人均數(shù)量、新的機動網(wǎng)絡(luò)?；谏鲜鲅芯?， 我們預(yù)測到 2025 年各大城市都或多或少會有些改變， 主要改變有個人交通 工具的所有權(quán)、由個人交通工具內(nèi)在核心決定的人均距離、道路死亡人均數(shù)量等。這預(yù)測主要 包括以下幾方面：1)2)個人車輛所有權(quán)大幅增加的現(xiàn)象將出現(xiàn)在印度的四大城市和上海在任何大城市中，使用內(nèi)核個人交通工具的數(shù)量將不會增加3)預(yù)計用于通勤的個人交通工具的使用也將不會增加4)用于休閑旅行的個人交通工具數(shù)量將增加(并且交通事故增長最快的)， 這種現(xiàn)象主要出現(xiàn)在上海，其次是印度的四大城市，里約熱內(nèi)盧和圣保羅總的來說， 在未來的 15 年內(nèi)，可以預(yù)見到在選

9、定大城市的各個地方不會出現(xiàn)大幅度降低對 個人交通工具依賴的現(xiàn)象。相反，我們預(yù)計在印度、中國、巴西的大城市中，個人交通工具的 作用將會不斷上升。上述趨勢的出現(xiàn)是由于我們視不同的交通運輸方式為獨立唯一的選擇。然而，越來越多的 實施和新機動網(wǎng)絡(luò)正處于使用中，即綜合網(wǎng)絡(luò)提供多鏈接，高技術(shù)，門到門的交通運輸方 式選擇。雖然，這些網(wǎng)絡(luò)有望減少人們對個人交通運輸?shù)囊蕾嚩?，但這種特性的大小和影響仍 有待確定。The Future of Personal Transportation in Megacities of The WorldOn average, a person spends about 70 m

10、inutes per day traveling (Schafer, Jacoby, Heywood, andWaitz, 2009). This time budget is relatively constant over time and across countries. Consequently, wealthy people tend to travel faster and over longer distances.In the future there will be an overall increase in mobility throughout the world.

11、For example,Schafer and Victor (2000) projected that by 2050 the average citizen of the world will travel (by all modes) as much overall distance as the average Western European did in 1990. From 2000 to 2050, the mobility of the average American will increase by a factor of 2.6, to 58,000 km/year.

12、Schafer andVictor (2000) forecast that the average Indian will increase his/her travel to 6,000 km/year by 2050, comparable to the level of West Europeans in the early 1970s.In total, in 2000, people traveled 23 billion km, and by 2050 that figure is expected to grow to 105 billion km (Schafer and V

13、ictor, 2000).At the same time, urban population continues to expand, and the number of megacities cities with over 10 million inhabitants is expected to double within a generation (World Bank, 2002). As cities grow and become richer, vehicle ownership and use tend to increase rapidly. This, in turn,

14、 has an influence on travel speed, congestion, and air pollution.The above trends have resulted in wide discussion about sustainable transportation in metropolitan areas. In broad terms, movement to sustainable urban transportation involves accessibility and the generation of wealth by cost-effectiv

15、e and equitable means, while safeguarding health and minimizing the consumption of natural resources and the emission of pollutants (Kennedy,Miller, Shalaby, Maclean, and Coleman, 2005). Frequently, this has been feasible with wide use of public transportation in general, and rapid rail transportati

16、on in particular. For example, there are cities such as Tokyo and Hong Kong that invested in public transport to provide extensive, high-quality, public transport systems before private vehicle ownership was high (Barter, Kenworthy, and Laube, 2003). In these cities, bus travel was at a high level u

17、ntil rapid mass transit was built and became affordable.However, personal vehicles are an integral part of modern city life, providing a number of benefits to individuals and society no matter how they are used as single occupancy vehicles or as shared or shuttle vehicles. Consequently, as pointed o

18、ut by Kennedy et al. (2005), planning for a new generation of sustainable personal vehicles is critical for the sustainable development of cities.Through technical innovation and the application of concepts of industrial ecology, there are several possible candidates for the sustainable personal veh

19、icles of the future (Kennedy et al., 2005).In addition, it is likely that many applications of intelligent transportation systems will substantially affect future urban transportation. These applications include, for example, demand management (demand-responsive public transportation, car pooling an

20、d sharing, access control, road-use charging), trip planning systems/real-time traveler information, and signal priorities for public transport.To study current and future personal transportation in megacities, 15 metropolitan areas worldwide were selected. The selected metropolitan areas were class

21、ified by region as follows:North America: Chicago, New YorkEurope: London, Moscow, ParisCentral and South America: Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, Sao PauloIndia: Bangalore, Calcutta, Delhi, MumbaiChina: Hong Kong, ShanghaiFor each metropolitan area, a set of key indicators affecting futu

22、re transportation was examined.It includes population and health, Private motorized passenger vehicles, Public transportation modes operated, Modal split, Travel speed by mode, Road fatalities. As population and wealth,Size of the population and wealth of the population play vital roles. Consequentl

23、y, Figure 1 andTable 1 present the expected growth in population of the examined megacities, and Table 2 presents the expected growth in wealth per capita for the countries in which the megacities are located.The results indicate that the highest proportional increases from 2005 to 2025 (more than0%

24、) is predicted for Bangalore, Calcutta, Delhi, Mumbai, and Shanghai, followed by modest increases (12-18%) for Chicago, Hong Kong, Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, and S? o Paulo. The lowest increases (less than 12%) are predicted for Buenos Aires, London, Moscow, New York, and Paris. Overall, the highe

25、st increase of population will take place in the examined Indian and Chinese metropolitan areas.Table 2 indicates that the highest increase of incomes from 2010 to 2014 is expected for China, followed by India, Russia, Mexico, Hong Kong, Brazil, United Kingdom, Argentina, France, and theUnited State

26、s.Then the chapter studies the Selected urban transportation plans and strategies. The cities involveNew York, London, Sao Paulo, Mumbai, Shanghai. Meanwhile, The presented summaries do not necessarily convey a complete description of the strategies. For example, the urban transportation plans of la

27、rge metropolitan areas typically involve many government structures at national, regional, and local levels (see e.g., Urban Age, 2009), and each level can have its own strategy. Consequently, the presented summaries are designed to highlight the main objectives, focuses, and measures planned by the

28、 selected metropolitan areas for the next 10 to 20 years. The emphasis is on the planned modal split (i.e., how the strategies envision the future role of private vehicles, public transportation, and nonmotorized transportation.As New York, the goal of the regional transportation plan (PLANYC, 2007)

29、 is to meet the city and region ' s transportation needs through 2030 and beyond, and to improve travel speed. The plan includes strategies to improve the transit network and reduce growing gridlock on the roads through better road management and congestion pricing. The specific initiatives incl

30、ude the following: (1) to increase the capacity on key congested routes, (2) to provide new commuter rail access to Manhattan, (3) to expand transit access to underserved areas, (4) to improve and expand bus service, and (5) to improve local commuter rail service.In addition, New York City has recen

31、tly introduced its own strategic plan (NYCDOT, 2008). Its major goals include, for example cutting city traffic fatalities by 50% from the 2007 levels, implementing bus rapid transit lines and measures to increase bus speeds city-wide, doubling bicycle commuting by 2015, initiating city-wide parking

32、 policies to manage curb space to reduce cruising and congestion, adopting complete-street design templates for reconstruction projects, launching a MainStreet Initiative to develop people-friendly boulevards in key corridors across the city, and delivering better street surfaces.At last, we discuss

33、 the future transportation in the examined metropolitan areas. It includesPersonal vehicle ownership per capita, Distance driven by personal vehicles per capita within cities inner core, Distance driven by personal vehicles per capita for commuting, Distance driven by personal vehicles per capita fo

34、r leisure trips, Number of road fatalities per capita, New mobility networks.Based on the analysis, projections through 2025 were made for each megacity for changes in ownership of personal vehicles; distance traveled per capita by personal vehicle within inner core, for commuting, and for leisure; and for number of road fatalities per capita. The forecasts include the following:? The largest increases in personal vehicle ownership will occur in the