A-Robot-in-every-home家家都有機(jī)器人

1、A Robot in Every Home 每一個家庭機(jī)器The leader of the PC revolution predicts that the next hot field will be roboticsPC 革命的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人預(yù)計 ,下一個熱門領(lǐng)域?qū)C(jī)器人By Bill Gates 由比爾蓋茨Imagine being present at the birth of a new industry. It is an industry based on groundbreaking new technologies, wherein a handful of well-establi

2、shed corporations sell highly specialized devices for business use and a fast-growing number of start-up companies produce innovative toys, gadgets for hobbyists and other interesting niche products. But it is also a highly fragmented industry with few common standards or platforms. Projects are com

3、plex, progress is slow, and practical applications are relatively rare. In fact, for all the excitement and promise, no one can say with any certainty when-or even if-this industry will achieve critical mass. If it does, though, it may well change the world.想象在一個新行業(yè)的誕生?；谕黄菩缘男录夹g(shù) ,它是一種行業(yè)中少數(shù)的公司出 售商業(yè)使用

4、和高度專業(yè)化的設(shè)備數(shù)量快速增長的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)產(chǎn)生創(chuàng)新的玩具,電子產(chǎn)品愛好者和其他有趣的利基產(chǎn)品。但它也是一個高度分散的行業(yè),一些常見的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)或平臺。項目復(fù)雜 ,進(jìn)展緩慢 ,實際應(yīng)用比較少見。事實上 ,對于所有的激情和 承諾 ,沒有人能說任何確定性或者即使這個行業(yè)什么時候達(dá)到臨界質(zhì) 量。如果是這樣 ,不過 ,很可能改變世界。Of course, the paragraph above could be a description of the computer industry during the mid-1970s, around the time that Paul Allen and I la

5、unched Microsoft. Back then, big, expensive mainframe computers ran the back-office operations for major companies, governmental departments and other institutions. Researchersa t leading universities and industrial laboratories were creating the basic building blocks that would make the information

6、 age possible. Intel had just introduced the 8080 microprocessor, and Atari was selling the popular electronic game Pong. At homegrown computer clubs, enthusiasts struggled to figure out exactly what this new technology was good for.當(dāng)然,上面的段落可以描述計算機(jī)行業(yè)在 1970 年代中期 ,當(dāng)時,我和保羅·艾倫創(chuàng) 辦微軟。當(dāng)時 ,大 ,昂貴的大型機(jī)電腦跑

7、大公司的后臺運作 ,政府部門和其他機(jī)構(gòu)。 一流大學(xué)和工業(yè)實驗室的研究人員創(chuàng)造的基本構(gòu)建塊 ,使信息時代成為可能。英 特爾剛剛介紹了 8080 微處理器 ,雅達(dá)利是受歡迎的電子游戲 Pong 出售。國產(chǎn)電 腦俱樂部 ,愛好者很難弄清楚到底是什么這種新技術(shù)很好。But what I really have in mind is something much more contemporary: the emergence of the robotics industry, which is developing in much the same way that the computer busi

8、ness did 30 years ago. Think of the manufacturing robots currently used on automobile assembly lines as the equivalent of yesterday's mainframes. The industry's niche products include robotic arms that perform surgery, surveillance robots deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan that dispose of road

9、side bombs, and domestic robots that vacuum the floor. Electronics companies have made robotic toys that can imitate people or dogs or dinosaurs, and hobbyists are anxious to get their hands on the latest version of the Lego robotics system.但我真的有什么想法是更為現(xiàn)代的東西 :機(jī)器人行業(yè)的出現(xiàn) ,這是開發(fā)一樣 ,計算 機(jī)業(yè)務(wù) 30 年前。認(rèn)為目前使用的制造

10、機(jī)器人汽車裝配線上相當(dāng)于昨天的大型機(jī)。 該行業(yè)的利基產(chǎn)品包括機(jī)械臂執(zhí)行手術(shù) ,監(jiān)視機(jī)器人部署在伊拉克和阿富汗 ,處置 路邊炸彈 ,和國內(nèi)機(jī)器人真空。電子公司已經(jīng)使機(jī)器人玩具 ,可以模仿人或狗或恐 龍,和業(yè)余愛好者急于拿到最新版本的樂高機(jī)器人系統(tǒng)。Meanwhile some of the world's best minds are trying to solve the toughest problems of robotics, such as visual recognition, navigation and machine learning. And they are suc

11、ceeding. At the 2004 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Grand Challenge, a competition to produce the first robotic vehicle capable of navigating autonomously over a rugged 142-mile course through the Mojave Desert, the top competitor managed to travel just 7.4 miles before breaking d

12、own. In 2005, though, five vehicles covered the complete distance, and the race's winner did it at an average speed of 19.1 miles an hour. (In another intriguing parallel between the robotics and computer industries, DARPA also funded the work that led to the creation of Arpanet, the precursor t

13、o the Internet.) 與此同時一些世界上最好的思想正試圖解決機(jī)器人的棘手問題,比如視覺識別、導(dǎo)航和機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)。他們成功。在 2004 年的國防高級研究計劃局 (DARPA)大挑戰(zhàn) , 競爭產(chǎn)生第一個機(jī)器人車輛自主導(dǎo)航的能力在一個堅固的 142 英里的莫哈韋沙 漠,前競爭對手設(shè)法打破之前旅行僅 7.4 英里。2005年,五輛覆蓋完整的距離 ,和比 賽的贏家是平均每小時 19.1 英里的速度。 (在另一個有趣的機(jī)器人和計算機(jī)行業(yè) 之間的平行 ,DARPA 資助工作 ,導(dǎo)致 Arpanet的創(chuàng)建 ,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的前身 )。What is more, the challenges facing t

14、he robotics industry are similar to those we tackled in computing three decades ago. Robotics companies have no standard operating software that could allow popular application programs to run in a variety of devices. The standardization of robotic processors and other hardware is limited, and very

15、little of the programming code used in one machine can be applied to another. Whenever somebody wants to build a new robot, they usually have to start from square one.更重要的是 ,機(jī)器人行業(yè)所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是類似我們解決在計算 30 年前。機(jī)器人公 司沒有標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的操作軟件 ,可以讓受歡迎的應(yīng)用程序運行在各種設(shè)備。機(jī)器人處理 器和其他硬件的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化是有限的 ,和很少的編程代碼中使用一臺機(jī)器可以應(yīng)用到 另一個地方。每當(dāng)有人想建立一個新的機(jī)器

16、人 ,他們通常從起點開始。Despite these difficulties, when I talk to people involved in robotics-from university researchers to entrepreneurs, hobbyists and high school students-the level of excitement and expectation reminds me so much of that time when Paul Allen and Ilooked at the convergence of new technolog

17、ies and dreamed of the day when a computer would be on every desk and in every home. And as I look at the trends that are now starting to converge, I can envision a future in which robotic devices will become a nearly ubiquitous part of our day-to-day lives. I believe that technologies such as distr

18、ibuted computing, voice and visual recognition, and wireless broadband connectivity will open the door to a new generation of autonomous devices that enable computers to perform tasks in the physical world on our behalf. We may be on the verge of a new era, when the PC will get up off the desktop an

19、d allow us to see, hear, touch and manipulate objects in places where we are not physically present. 盡管有這些困難 ,當(dāng)我跟人們參與機(jī)器人從大學(xué)的研究人員到企業(yè)家 ,愛好者 和高中學(xué)生 ,興奮和期待的水平讓我想起 ,當(dāng)保羅·艾倫和我看著新技術(shù)的融合 , 夢想那一天電腦將在每個家庭的每張桌子上。我看現(xiàn)在開始趨同的趨勢,我可以預(yù)見未來的機(jī)器人設(shè)備將成為一個幾乎無所不在的我們?nèi)粘Ｉ畹囊徊糠帧?我相 信技術(shù) ,如分布式計算、 聲音和視覺識別 ,無線寬帶連接將開門的新一代自動設(shè)備 , 使計算

20、機(jī)執(zhí)行任務(wù)代表我們在現(xiàn)實世界中。我們可能會在一個新時代的邊緣,當(dāng)電腦將從桌面 ,讓我們看到的 ,聽到的 ,接觸和操作對象的地方我們不是身體。From Science Fiction to Reality 從科幻變成現(xiàn)實The word "robot" was popularized in 1921 by Czech play 瓀 right Karel Capek, but people have envisioned creating robotlike devices for thousands of years. In Greek and Roman mytholog

21、y, the gods of metalwork built mechanical servants made from gold. In the first century A.D. , Heron of Alexandria-the great engineer credited with inventing the first steam engine-designed intriguing automatons, including one said to have the ability to talk. Leonardo da Vinci's 1495 sketch of

22、a mechanical knight, which could sit up and move its arms and legs, is considered to be the first plan for a humanoid robot.“機(jī)器人”一詞在 1921 年推廣由捷克打瓀卡雷爾恰 ,但人設(shè)想創(chuàng)建 robotlike 設(shè)備 了數(shù)千年。在希臘和羅馬神話中 ,金屬制品的神建造機(jī)械仆人用黃金做的。在公 元 1 世紀(jì)亞歷山大的蒼鷺 ,偉大的工程師發(fā)明蒸汽機(jī)的第一功臣 , 設(shè)計有趣的機(jī)器 人 ,據(jù)說其中一個談話的能力。列奧納多·達(dá)·芬奇在1495 年素描的機(jī)械騎士

23、,可以坐起來 ,移動它的胳膊和腿 ,被認(rèn)為是仿人機(jī)器人的第一個計劃。Over the past century, anthropomorphic machines have become familiar figures in popular culture through books such as Isaac Asimov's I, Robot, movies such as Star Wars and television shows such as Star Trek. The popularity of robots in fiction indicates that peo

24、ple are receptive to the idea that these machines will one day walk among us as helpers and even as companions. Nevertheless, although robots play a vital role in industries such as automobile manufacturing-where there is about one robot for every 10 workers-the fact is that we have a long way to go

25、 before real robots catch up with their science-fiction counterparts.在過去的一個世紀(jì) ,擬人化的機(jī)器已經(jīng)熟悉的人物在流行文化通過書如艾薩 克·阿西莫夫的我 ,機(jī)器人 ,電影如星球大戰(zhàn)和星際迷航等電視節(jié)目。機(jī) 器人的普及在小說中表明 ,人們接受的觀點 ,這些機(jī)器總有一天會走在我們中間助 手甚至同伴。然而 ,盡管機(jī)器人在汽車制造等行業(yè)中扮演著重要的角色 ,哪里有一 個機(jī)器人每 10 個工人事實上 ,我們還有很長的路要走真正的機(jī)器人趕上科幻 同行。One reason for this gap is that it ha

26、s been much harder than expected to enable computers and robots to sense their surrounding environment and to react quickly and accurately. It has proved extremely difficult to give robots the capabilities that humans take for granted-for example, the abilities to orient themselves with respect to t

27、he objects in a room, to respond to sounds and interpret speech, and to grasp objects of varying sizes, textures and fragility. Even something as simple as telling the difference between an open door and a window can be devilishly tricky for a robot. 這種差距的原因之一是 ,它已經(jīng)比預(yù)計的要困難得多 ,使電腦和機(jī)器人感知周圍環(huán) 境 ,快速、準(zhǔn)確地做

28、出反應(yīng)。事實證明很難給機(jī)器人 ,人類的能力是理所當(dāng)然的 例如 ,東方能力本身的對象在一個房間里 ,對聲音和解釋語言 ,和掌握對象的不 同尺寸 ,材質(zhì)和脆弱。即使簡單的事情 ,例如告訴開放的門和窗戶之間的區(qū)別是非 常復(fù)雜的機(jī)器人。But researchers are starting to find the answers. One trend that has helped them is the increasing availability of tremendous amounts of computer power. One megahertz of processing power

29、, which cost more than $7,000 in 1970, can now be purchased for just pennies. The price of a megabit of storage has seen a similar decline. The access to cheap computing power has permitted scientists to work on many of the hard problems that are fundamental to making robots practical. Today, for ex

30、ample, voice-recognition programs can identify words quite well, but a far greater challenge will be building machines that can understand what those words mean in context. As computing capacity continues to expand, robot designers will have the processing power they need to tackle issues of ever gr

31、eater complexity. 但研究人員也開始找到答案。 幫助他們的一個趨勢是大量的計算機(jī)能力的提高可 用性。處理能力的一個兆赫 ,于 7000 年花費超過 7000美元,現(xiàn)在可以購買硬幣。 兆的存儲的價格也見過類似的下降。 獲得廉價的計算能力已經(jīng)允許科學(xué)家從事的 許多難題 ,是制造機(jī)器人的實際基礎(chǔ)。 今天 ,例如 ,語音識別程序可以識別的話很好 , 但一個更大的挑戰(zhàn)將建筑機(jī)器可以在上下文理解這句話的意思是什么。 隨著計算 能力不斷擴(kuò)大 ,機(jī)器人設(shè)計師將他們需要的處理能力解決更復(fù)雜的問題。Another barrier to the development of robots has b

32、een the high cost of hardware, such as sensors that enable a robot to determine the distance to an object as well as motors and servos that allow the robot to manipulate an object with both strength and delicacy. But prices are dropping fast. Laser range finders that are used in robotics to measure

33、distance with precision cost about $10,000 a few years ago; today they can be purchased for about $2,000. And new, more accurate sensors based on ultrawideband radar are available for even less.另一個障礙的發(fā)展機(jī)器人硬件的高成本 ,如傳感器使機(jī)器人能夠確定一個物體的距離以及電機(jī)和伺服系統(tǒng) ,使機(jī)器人操縱物體強(qiáng)度和美味。但價格下降快。機(jī)器 人所使用的激光測距儀來測量距離精度與幾年前耗資約 10000 美元

34、,今天,他們可 以購買約 2000 美元。和新的、更準(zhǔn)確的傳感器基于超寬頻雷達(dá)可用于更少。Now robot builders can also add Global Positioning System chips, video cameras, array microphones (which are better than conventional microphones at distinguishing a voice from background noise) and a host of additional sensors for a reasonable expense. T

35、he resulting enhancement of capabilities, combined with expanded processing power and storage, allows today's robots to do things such as vacuum a room or help to defuse a roadside bomb-tasks that would have been impossible for commercially produced machines just a few years ago. 現(xiàn)在機(jī)器人建造者還可以添加全球

36、定位系統(tǒng)芯片,攝像頭 ,麥克風(fēng)陣列 (比傳統(tǒng)區(qū)分語音和背景噪音麥克風(fēng) )和大量的額外的傳感器的合理費用。由此產(chǎn)生的增強(qiáng) 功能 ,加上擴(kuò)展處理能力和存儲 ,使得今天的機(jī)器人做事如真空房間或有助于緩解 一枚路邊炸彈 ,是不可能的任務(wù)僅僅幾年前商業(yè)化生產(chǎn)的機(jī)器。A BASIC Approach 一個基本的方法In february 2004 I visited a number of leading universities, including Carnegie Mellon University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvar

37、d University, Cornell University and the University of Illinois, to talk about the powerful role that computers can play in solving some of society's most pressing problems. My goal was to help students understand how exciting and important computer science can be, and I hoped to encourage a few

38、 of them to think about careers in technology. At each university, after delivering my speech, I had the opportunity to get a firsthand look at some of the most interesting research projects in the school's computer science department. Almost without exception, I was shown at least one project t

39、hat involved robotics.2004年 2月我參觀了許多著名大學(xué) ,包括卡內(nèi)基梅隆大學(xué)、麻省理工學(xué)院、哈佛 大學(xué)、康奈爾大學(xué)和伊利諾斯州大學(xué)的談?wù)?,電腦可以發(fā)揮強(qiáng)大的作用在解決一 些社會最緊迫的問題。我的目標(biāo)是幫助學(xué)生了解如何 ,令人興奮的和重要的計算 機(jī)科學(xué),我希望鼓勵其中的幾個思考職業(yè)技術(shù)。 在每個大學(xué),發(fā)表我的演講后 ,我有 機(jī)會獲得第一手看看一些最有趣的研究項目在學(xué)校的計算機(jī)科學(xué)系。 幾乎無一例 外的是 ,至少我展示了一個項目 ,涉及到機(jī)器人技術(shù)。At that time, my colleagues at Microsoft were also hearing fr

40、om people in academia and at commercial robotics firms who wondered if our company was doing any work in robotics that might help them with their own development efforts. We were not, so we decided to take a closer look. I asked Tandy Trower, a member of my strategic staff and a 25-year Microsoft ve

41、teran, to go on an extended fact-finding mission and to speak with people across the robotics community. What he found was universal enthusiasm for the potential of robotics, along with an industry-wide desire for tools that would make development easier. "Many see the robotics industry at atec

42、hnological turning point where a move to PC architecture makes more and more sense," Tandy wrote in his report to me after his fact-finding mission. "As Red Whittaker, leader of Carnegie Mellon's entry in the DARPA Grand Challenge, recently indicated, the hardware capability is mostly

43、there; now the issue is getting the software right." 那時,我的同事們在微軟也聽到人們在學(xué)術(shù)界和商業(yè)機(jī)器人公司想知道我們公司 是做任何工作的機(jī)器人可以幫助他們與自己的開發(fā)工作。我們沒有,所以我們決定仔細(xì)看看。我問Tandy據(jù)透露,我的戰(zhàn)略工作人員和 25年微軟資深 ,繼續(xù)延長事 實調(diào)查團(tuán)和說話人機(jī)器人社區(qū)。他發(fā)現(xiàn)普遍對機(jī)器人技術(shù)的潛力,以及全行業(yè)渴望工具 ,這將使開發(fā)變得更容易?！霸S多人認(rèn)為機(jī)器人產(chǎn)業(yè)在一個技術(shù)的轉(zhuǎn)折點 將 PC 架構(gòu)越來越多的意義 ,“Tandy 寫在他的后向我報告事實調(diào)查團(tuán)。“紅惠塔 克,卡內(nèi)基梅隆的領(lǐng)袖進(jìn)入 D

44、ARPA 大挑戰(zhàn),最近表示 ,硬件能力主要是在那里 ;現(xiàn)在 問題是正確的軟件?！盉ack in the early days of the personal computer, we realized that we needed an ingredient that would allow all of the pioneering work to achieve critical mass, to coalesce into a real industry capable of producing truly useful products on a commercial scale. W

45、hat was needed, it turned out, was Microsoft BASIC. When we created this programming language in the 1970s, we provided the common foundation that enabled programs developed for one set of hardware to run on another. BASIC also made computer programming much easier, which brought more and more peopl

46、e into the industry. Although a great many individuals made essential contributions to the development of the personal computer, Microsoft BASIC was one of the key catalysts for the software and hardware innovations that made the PC revolution possible.在早期的個人電腦 ,我們意識到我們需要一個成分 ,使所有的開創(chuàng)性工作達(dá)到臨界 質(zhì)量,合并成一個

47、真正的行業(yè)能夠在商業(yè)規(guī)模生產(chǎn)真正有用的產(chǎn)品。需要什么結(jié) 果,微軟基本。當(dāng)我們創(chuàng)建了這個編程語言在 1970 年代 ,我們提供了共同的基礎(chǔ) , 使項目開發(fā)一套硬件上運行。基本的計算機(jī)編程容易得多,這使得越來越多的人進(jìn)入這個行業(yè)。雖然很多人做出了重要的貢獻(xiàn)個人電腦的發(fā)展,微軟基本是軟件和硬件的關(guān)鍵催化劑創(chuàng)新 ,使個人電腦革命成為可能。After reading Tandy's report, it seemed clear to me that before the robotics industry could make the same kind of quantum leap tha

48、t the PC industry made 30 years ago, it, too, needed to find that missing ingredient. So I asked him to assemble a small team that would work with people in the robotics field to create a set of programming tools that would provide the essential plumbing so that anybody interested in robots with eve

49、n the most basic understanding of computer programming could easily write robotic applications that would work with different kinds of hardware. The goal was to see if it was possible to provide the same kind of common, low-level foundation for integrating hardware and software into robot designs th

50、at Microsoft BASIC provided for computer programmers.閱讀Tandy的報告后,清楚我看來 ,在機(jī)器人可以使同樣的量子飛躍 ,個人電腦行業(yè) 30年前,它,也需要找到失蹤的成分。 所以我問他組裝一個小團(tuán)隊 ,愿與人在機(jī)器人 領(lǐng)域創(chuàng)建一組編程工具 ,將提供必要的管道 ,任何人對機(jī)器人感興趣 ,連最基本的 了解計算機(jī)編程很容易編寫機(jī)器人可與不同類型的硬件上運行的應(yīng)用程序。 目標(biāo) 是否可以提供同樣的常見 ,低級基礎(chǔ)將硬件和軟件集成到機(jī)器人設(shè)計 ,微軟提供的 基本計算機(jī)程序員。Tandy's robotics group has been abl

51、e to draw on a number of advanced technologies developed by a team working under the direction of Craig Mundie, Microsoft's chief research and strategy officer. One such technology will help solve one of the most difficult problems facing robot designers: how to simultaneously handle all the dat

52、a coming in from multiple sensors and send the appropriate commands to the robot's motors, a challenge known as concurrency. A conventional approach is to write a traditional, single-threaded program-a long loop that first reads all the data from the sensors, then processes this input and finall

53、y delivers output that determines the robot's behavior, before starting the loop all over again. The shortcomings are obvious: if your robot has fresh sensor data indicating that the machine is at the edge of a precipice, but the program is still at the bottom of the loop calculating trajectory

54、and telling the wheels to turn faster based on previous sensor input, there is a good chance the robot will fall down the stairs before it can process the new information.Tandy 機(jī)器人小組已經(jīng)能夠利用大量的先進(jìn)技術(shù)開發(fā)的一個團(tuán)隊工作的指導(dǎo)下 克瑞格·蒙迪 ,微軟首席研究和戰(zhàn)略官。一個這樣的技術(shù)將幫助解決機(jī)器人設(shè)計 師面臨的最困難的問題之一 :如何同時處理所有來自多個傳感器的數(shù)據(jù)和發(fā)送適 當(dāng)?shù)拿顧C(jī)器人的汽車 ,

55、稱為并發(fā)性的挑戰(zhàn)。傳統(tǒng)的方法是編寫傳統(tǒng)的單線程程 序一個長循環(huán)第一個從傳感器中讀取所有數(shù)據(jù) ,然后處理這個輸入和最終交 付輸出決定機(jī)器人的行為 ,開始前循環(huán)一遍。的缺點是顯而易見的 :如果你的機(jī)器 人有新的傳感器數(shù)據(jù)表明機(jī)器在懸崖的邊緣 ,但該計劃仍是底部的循環(huán)計算軌跡 和告訴車輪將根據(jù)以往的傳感器輸入速度 ,很有可能這個機(jī)器人將會下樓梯才能 處理新信息。Concurrency is a challenge that extends beyond robotics. Today as more and more applications are written for distributed

56、networks of computers, programmers have struggled to figure out how to efficiently orchestrate code running on many different servers at the same time. And as computers with a single processor are replaced by machines with multiple processors and "multicore" processors-integrated circuits

57、with two or more processors joined together for enhanced performance-software designers will need a new way to program desktop applications and operating systems. To fully exploit the power of processors working in parallel, the new software must deal with the problem of concurrency.并發(fā)性是一個挑戰(zhàn) ,超越機(jī)器人技

58、術(shù)。今天越來越多的分布式計算機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)應(yīng)用程 序編寫 ,程序員都在努力找出如何有效地安排代碼上運行許多不同的服務(wù)器在同 一時間。并與單處理器計算機(jī)有多個處理器和機(jī)器所取代 ,“多核”處理器 集成電路使用連接在一起的兩個或兩個以上的處理器增強(qiáng)性能,軟件設(shè)計師需要一個程序桌面應(yīng)用程序和操作系統(tǒng)的新方法。充分利用處理器并行工作的力量 , 新的軟件必須處理并發(fā)的問題。One approach to handling concurrency is to write multi-threaded programs that allow data to travel along many paths. But

59、as any developer who has written multithreaded code can tell you, this is one of the hardest tasks in programming. The answer that Craig's team has devised to the concurrency problem is something called the concurrency and coordination runtime (CCR). The CCR is a library of functions-sequences of software code that perform specific tasks-that makes it easy to write multithreaded applications that can coordinate a number of simultaneous activities. Designed to help programmers take advantage of the power of multicore and multiprocessor systems, the CCR turns out to be id