美國化肥市場發(fā)展歷程及生產(chǎn)、流通、消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀

1、美國化肥市場發(fā)展歷程及生產(chǎn)、流通、消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀Today and Yesterday of US Fertilizer Market in Consumption, Distribution and Production2007中國化肥市場高峰論壇2007 China Fertilizer Market Summit7月26日-27日J(rèn)uly 26 - 27中國，西安Xian, China詹姆士.麥克萊恩 教授 GdP合伙人JAMES MCCLAIN Professor and PartnerGlobal Development Partners (GdP)Table of Contents 演講

2、大綱oIntroduction 化肥使用介紹oConsumption and Trends化肥消費(fèi)趨勢oPoints of Interest關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)oProduction生產(chǎn)oChannels流通渠道oProfiles In A Mature Industry成熟期化肥工業(yè)的概貌oSummary總結(jié)Introduction化肥使用介紹Required Nutrients植物需要的養(yǎng)分植物所需的養(yǎng)分Required Plant Nutrientso16種植物所需的養(yǎng)分 There are 16 required plant nutrientso分為三類Divided into 3 categor

3、ies:n主要元素-三種Primary threen次要元素-三種Secondary threen微量元素-十種Micronutrients - ten主要的和次要的營養(yǎng)元素Primary and Secondary Nutrientso主要元素Primary:n氮Nitrogenn磷Phosphorusn鉀Potassiumo次要元素Secondaryn鈣Calciumn鎂Magnesiumn硫磺Sulfur (sulfur)微量營養(yǎng)素Micronutrientsn硼B(yǎng)oronn氯Chlorinen銅Coppern鐵Ironn錳Manganesen鉬Molybdenumn鋅Zincn碳Car

4、bonn氫Hydrogenn氧Oxygen主要用法Majority Usageo在北美，這三種主要的植物營養(yǎng)成分(氮,磷,鉀) 占化肥消耗量的95%. 這種趨勢已持續(xù)50年。 The three primary plant nutrients (N, P, and K) comprise 95% of all fertilizers consumed in North America. This trend has been steady for 50 years.o然而,次要元素和微量元素,對農(nóng)作物的質(zhì)量和單位面積的產(chǎn)量具有很重要的意義. However, the secondary and

5、 micronutrients are important to healthy crops and yield per acre.Introduction化肥使用介紹Required Nutrients植物需要的養(yǎng)分全球氮、磷、鉀的消費(fèi)量分析Consumption of N + P2O5 + K2O百萬噸/百分比Millions of Tones and Percentages (1)年 北美 全球 東亞 發(fā)達(dá)國家 發(fā)展中國家Yr. North/Am. World East-Asia Developed Developing61 7.44(24.8) 30.03 1.05(3.5) 26.1

6、5(87.1) 3.88(12.9)71 16.37(23.6) 69.13 4.51(6.5) 55.37(80.0) 13.57(20.0)81 23.43(20.0) 117.20 16.19(13.8) 78.17(66.7) 39.03(33.3)91 20.66(14.9) 138.24 26.33(19.0) 81.05(58.6) 62.34(41.3)01 21.34(15.7) 135.56 36.99(27.3) 51.27(37.8) 84.29(62.2)06 21.33(13.8) 154.07 47.34(30.7) 46.67(30.3) 107.4(69.7)

7、North. America and East-Asia Fertilizer ConsumptionPercent of WorldDeveloped and Developing NationsFertilizer ConsumptionPercent of WorldPoints of Interest消費(fèi)關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)美國農(nóng)作物和化肥價(jià)格指數(shù)US Crop and Fertilizer Price Indiceso從1975年到2005年農(nóng)民的肥料成本倍增，農(nóng)作物銷售價(jià)格只上漲了29%。 From 1975 to 2005 farmer fertilizer costs doubled an

8、d crop prices received increased by 29%. o從1975年至2005年化肥生產(chǎn)商價(jià)格指數(shù)From 1975 to 2005 Fertilizer Producer Price Indices:n全部肥料增漲90% All fertilizer +90%n氮肥增漲100% Nitrogen +100%n磷肥增漲58% Phosphate +58%關(guān)注點(diǎn)Points of Interesto北美有兩次使用量達(dá)到2300萬噸,一次是1981年,另一次是2003年達(dá)到2389萬噸 ,這是歷史最高水平. North America has used 23 milli

9、on tons twice, in 1981 and again in 2003 at 23.89, the highest level.o1961年發(fā)達(dá)國家(占世界用量87%)主要植物養(yǎng)分的用量是發(fā)展中國家的6.75倍. In 1961 the Developed Countries (87% of world usage) used 6.75 times the primary plant nutrients as the Developing World. o2006年發(fā)展中國家(占世界用量70%)主要植物養(yǎng)分的用量是發(fā)達(dá)國家的2.3倍. In 2006 the Developing C

10、ountries (70% of world usage) used 2.3 times the primary plant nutrients as the Developed World.北美及世界化肥發(fā)展趨勢North American and World Fertilizer Trendso從1961年到1981年北美肥料的使用量增漲三倍. From 1961 to 1981 North American fertilizer usage tripled.o自1981年以來,北美肥料用量已經(jīng)穩(wěn)定，介于低點(diǎn)18.56萬噸( 1983年) 和高點(diǎn)2389.0萬噸( 2004年) 之間. S

11、ince 1981, North American fertilizer usage has been stable, ranging between a high of 23.89 million tons (2004) to a low of 18.56 million tons (1983). Production生產(chǎn)氮肥趨勢Nitrogen Trends2007年，由于美國天然氣成本變化，美國有45%的氮肥來自進(jìn)口。在美國大部分的氮肥生產(chǎn)主要靠天然氣。 In 2007, due to the cost of US natural gas, the US is importing 45%

12、 of its Nitrogen needs. Most Nitrogen production in the US is sourced from natural gas.在中國75%的氮肥生產(chǎn)是使用煤，只有25%使用石油和天然氣. In China 75% of Nitrogen production is from coal and only 25% from oil and natural gas.氮肥趨勢Nitrogen Trendso在北美氨的產(chǎn)能自2003年下降了21%.在未來它將保持現(xiàn)在這個(gè)水平. Ammonia production capacity in the North

13、 America is down 21% from 2003. It is projected to remain at this level for the foreseeable future.o尿素下降18%. Urea is down 18%. o2002年美國有四個(gè)尿素工廠 In 2002, there were 4 Urea plants in USA.美國化肥生產(chǎn)趨勢Trends In US Fertilizer Production o陶氏化學(xué)公司和杜邦公司已不再生產(chǎn)化肥Dow Chemical and DuPont are no longer in fertilizer pr

14、oduction.o在過去的五年里，美國的化肥生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)很少盈利. For the last five years, there has been little profitability in US fertilizer production.o中國正在大量出口氮肥到美國. China is exporting significant amounts of Nitrogen to the US.Channels分銷渠道美國化肥的分銷渠道US Fertilizer Channelso美國的化肥一散裝運(yùn)輸為主，而中國的化肥大部分是袋裝運(yùn)輸. US fertilizer producers ship

15、 in bulk; in China most fertilizer is shipped in bags. o美國是機(jī)械化施肥，而中國是手工施肥. US applies fertilizer mechanically. China applies fertilizer manually (by hand).美國化肥的分銷渠道US Fertilizer Channelso化肥運(yùn)輸很少是從生產(chǎn)廠家直接運(yùn)輸給農(nóng)民Very little fertilizer is shipped direct to farmers from manufacturers.o生產(chǎn)廠家運(yùn)給混合站和大的批發(fā)商. Manuf

16、acturers ship to mixers and large wholesalers.o批發(fā)商轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)給地區(qū)經(jīng)銷商. Wholesalers ship to local dealers. 美國化肥的分銷渠道US Fertilizer Channelso經(jīng)銷商熟悉當(dāng)?shù)氐霓r(nóng)作物、土壤、氣候和農(nóng)場客戶的具體需求. Dealers know the local crops, soil, climate and hence the needs of their farmer-customers.o大型的化肥生產(chǎn)企業(yè)對地方農(nóng)民/種植者的需求不敏感. Large fertilizer manufactur

17、es are not that sensitive to local farmer/grower needs. 美國化肥的分銷渠道US Fertilizer Channelso化肥生產(chǎn)設(shè)施建立在有自然資源的地方,但是距離客戶就會(huì)遠(yuǎn)一些. 因此,我們需要有一個(gè)敏感的分銷渠道. Fertilizer manufacturing facilities are near natural resource deposits, which are at a distance from customers. Hence, the need for a sensitive distribution chann

18、el.o一些生產(chǎn)廠商有自己的混合站或分銷網(wǎng)絡(luò). Some manufacturers own mixing or distribution networks.Profiles In A Mature Industry成熟期化肥工業(yè)的概貌美國化肥工業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)量變化表USA Companies in the Industry(2) 主生產(chǎn)商 混合站 其他農(nóng)業(yè)化學(xué)和養(yǎng)分企業(yè) Primary Mixing Ag. Chem. & NutrientsYr. Firms Loc. $Mil Firms Loc. $Mil Firms Loc. $Mil年 企業(yè)數(shù) 地點(diǎn) 產(chǎn)值年 企業(yè)數(shù) 地點(diǎn) 產(chǎn)值年

19、企業(yè)數(shù) 地點(diǎn) 產(chǎn)值47 13 187 $312 203 518 $193 na54 32 260 $534 172 580 $329 na63 145 281 $869 534 733 $623 241 340 $47767 85 213 $1,196 496 721 $731 223 344 $81772 113 218 $1,978 444 627 $800 298 388 $1,15177 155 243 $5,285 457 673 $1,867 338 409 $2,78082 178 253 $7,313 372 544 $1,903 286 330 $5,43687 172 24

20、1 $6,268 307 452 $1,701 233 277 $6,30092 157 226 $7,495 315 403 $2,204 222 261 $9,14297 159 204 $9,519 334 449 $3,327 222 259 $11,42002 147 187* $7,181 373 542 $3,090 204 237 $8,91907 na美國公司*氮、磷、鉀生產(chǎn)商USA Companies* Primary Nutrients*2002年80%的產(chǎn)品是通過地方上的那些超過50人的經(jīng)銷商和混合站銷售出去的，而這些產(chǎn)品是由主要的化肥生產(chǎn)企業(yè)在20%的少數(shù)幾個(gè)工廠生產(chǎn)

21、的。In 2002, locations with 50 employees or more represent 80% of the shipments and 20% of the locations for Primary fertilizer producers (N,P, and K). *通常氮肥生產(chǎn)設(shè)施是很大的. Usually Nitrogen production facilities are larger.*磷肥產(chǎn)能主要是那些超過50人的企業(yè)在40%的地方工廠里創(chuàng)造的，這些工廠產(chǎn)出的產(chǎn)品價(jià)值超過這個(gè)產(chǎn)品總價(jià)值的90%。Phosphorus fertilizer produc

22、tion locations with 50 or more employees represent 40% of the locations and over 90% of the value shipped.美國復(fù)混肥企業(yè)USA Companies* Mixingo2002年27%超過20名雇員的的企業(yè)銷售了80%的產(chǎn)品In 2002, Mixing facilities with 20 or more workers represent 27% of the locations and 80% of the shipments.o復(fù)混肥企業(yè)通常是小企業(yè)，分散在不同的地區(qū)，主要根據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)胤N植

23、者的要求生產(chǎn)復(fù)混肥Mixing facilities are smaller, decentralized and custom blend fertilizers for local growers.美國公司*農(nóng)藥和微量元素USA Companies* Pesticides and Micronutrientso200年在農(nóng)藥和微量元素生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域，同樣適合二八原則，即20%的雇員超過50人的企業(yè)山產(chǎn)了80%的產(chǎn)品。In 2002, The same 80/20 law holds true, plants with 50 or more workers represent 20% of the

24、 locations and over 80% of the production.o美國政府的數(shù)據(jù)收集方法,不允許直接比較多家公司. US Government data collection methods does not allow for the direct comparison of the number of firms. 氮磷鉀企業(yè)的成長和并購Growth and Consolidation of Primary Nutrient Companieso根據(jù)產(chǎn)品生命周期( PLC )的原理,在成長階段會(huì)出現(xiàn)大量的競爭者. According to the principles

25、of the Product Life Cycle (PLC), the greatest number of competitors appear during the growth phase.o然后在成熟期這些競爭者的數(shù)量將下降. Then the number declines during the mature phase.o大幅度增長發(fā)生在六十年代末期至八十年代初. Significant growth took place in the late 1960s to early 1980s.氮肥生產(chǎn)企業(yè)Companies with Nitrogen plantso從六十年代末期至八

26、十年代初33家氮肥生產(chǎn)企業(yè)消失了. From the late 1960s to the early 1980s, 33 companies vanished from Nitrogen production.o10個(gè)石油/天然氣氣公司退出氮肥生產(chǎn). Ten(10) oil/gas companies dropped out.o八十年代初,排名前5的公司的氮肥產(chǎn)量占總體的41%. By the early 1980s, 5 companies represented 41% of Nitrogen capacity in the USA.1980年五大氮肥生產(chǎn)企業(yè)1980s Top Five

27、Nitrogen ProducersoCF Industries2.2 mil. tonsoFarmland 2.2 mil. tonsoAgrico Chemical- Williams 1.7 mil. tonsoUnion Oil 1.3 mil. tonsoAllied Corporation1.1 mil. tonsoTotal Top 5 (41%)8.5 mil. Tonso54 companies/89 plants- 20.8 mil. tons退出的石油公司Oil Companies Dropping Outo阿科化學(xué)公司Arco chemicalo大陸石油公司Contin

28、ental Oilo海灣石油Gulf Oilo美孚化工Mobil ChemicaloReserve Oil and Gaso殼牌化學(xué)公司Shell ChemicaloSinclair Petrochemicalo太陽石油Sun OiloTenneco ChemicaloTexaco, Inc.除了被列出的十個(gè)石油公司In Addition To The Ten Oil Companies ListedoCities Services 和Hill Chemical 兩個(gè)石油公司分別先進(jìn)入然后又退出氮肥生產(chǎn). Cities Services and Hill Chemical, both oil

29、companies, entered and dropped out of Nitrogen production.o石油工業(yè)在這個(gè)時(shí)候開始經(jīng)歷合并. The Petroleum Industry also started to go through consolidation at this time. 2006頂級化肥企業(yè)2006 Top Fertilozer CompaniesoTerra Industries oAgrium, Inc.*oPotash Corporation of Saskatchewan*oMosaic Company*oCF Industries*除了氮肥還參與其

30、他肥料的生產(chǎn)Involved in other fertilizer businesses besides Nitrogen production.Terra Industrieso成立于1964年,當(dāng)時(shí)只有一個(gè)工廠Established in 1964 with one planto1965年已發(fā)展12個(gè)分銷商Acquired 12 distributors in 1965o1974年上市Went public in 1974o1977年收購Riverside Chemicals In 1977 acquired Riverside Chemicalso1981年被南非的Minorco 收購

31、In 1981 Terra Industries acquired by Minorco (of South Africa)o2004年又被剝離出來Divested in 2004Terra IndustriesoAgrico Chemicals在1987年從Williams Industriesno剝離出來，現(xiàn)在成為Terra 主要部分是Terra Industries的一個(gè)子公司. Agrico Chemicals was divested by Williams Industries in 1987 and is now a general partner of Terra Nitrog

32、en, a subsidiary of Terra IndustriesoTerra 公司有7個(gè)氮肥工廠Terra Nitrogen operates 7 plants.o氮肥業(yè)務(wù)占Terra業(yè)務(wù)的98%. Nitrogen is 98% of Terras business.Terra Industrieso占美國銷售的70%. US represents 70% of sales.o2006年收入為18億美元. Revenue is $1.8 billion in 2006.o2006年利潤為420萬美元占銷售額的0.25% . Profit is $4.2 million in 2006

33、 or 0.25% of sales.Agrium, Inc. (AGU:nyse)o總部設(shè)在加拿大艾伯塔省Based In Alberta, Canada.o1992年由2個(gè)加拿大公司Consolidated Mining的化肥業(yè)務(wù)部和Alberta Energy合并成立。 Formed in 1992 from the fertilizers divisions of Consolidated Mining and Alberta Energy, both of Canada.o1993年和1996年收購了一些農(nóng)也用品經(jīng)銷商. Acquired farm supply dealers 19

34、93 and 1996.Agrium, Inc.o收購Imperial Oil和Viridian的磷酸鹽業(yè)務(wù). Acquired the phosphate operations of Imperial Oil and Viridian.o在加拿大安大略省建設(shè)了磷酸鹽工廠Opened phosphate operations in Ontario, Canadao2000年收購Unocal的氮肥業(yè)務(wù). In 2000 acquired Unocals nitrogen fertilizer operationsAgrium, Inc.o2006年總銷售42億美元. Total sales $4

35、.2 billion (2006)o在美國銷售占70%. Sales 70% in US.o分銷占47%. Distribution 47% of sales.o礦業(yè)和制造業(yè)占銷售51%. Mining and manufacturing 51% of sales.o利潤為42 $ mil. 占1%銷售額. Profit $42 mil. or 1% of sales.Potash Corp. of Saskatchewano收入為38億美元Revenue of $3.8 billion.o利潤為6.26億美元，占銷售額16.6%. Profit is $626 million or 16.6

36、% of saleso氮肥、磷肥、鉀肥各占三分之一.One third of Revenues in each of Nitrogen, Phosphates, and Potassium.Potash Corp. of Saskatchewano碳酸鉀的產(chǎn)能為1250萬噸，占全球產(chǎn)量的20%. Production capacity of 12.5 million tons of Potash represents 20% of worlds capacity.o擁有中化香港集團(tuán)20%的股份，是中國最大的化肥產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口供應(yīng)商. Owns 20% of Sinochem Hong Kong Ho

37、ldings, Chinas largest importer of fertilizer products.Mosaic Company (MOS:nyse)o2004年由Cargill 、International Minerals and Chemicals合并而成. Formed in 2004 by the merger of Cargills crop nutritional unit and International Minerals and Chemicals.oCargill擁有三分之二的股份.Two-thirds owned by Cargill.o收入超過53億美元，占

38、美國的30%. Revenues equal $5.3 billion; 30% in US.Mosaic Company 銷售比例Sales 利潤比例Profit氮肥Nitrogen 2% 4%碳酸鉀Potash 21% 96%磷酸鹽Phosphates 53% -negative其它Other 24% -negativeCF Industries Holdings, Inc.o收入超過20億Revenues equal $2 billion.o生產(chǎn)和分銷網(wǎng)絡(luò)Manufacturing and distribution network.o氮肥銷售額占75%，磷酸鹽占25%. Nitrogen

39、 75% of sales and phosphates 25% of sales.CF Industries Holdings, Inc.o利潤占銷售額1.7%. Profits are 1.7% of sales.o美國市場銷售占81%.US represents 81% of sales.o加拿大市場銷售占11%. Canada 11% of sales.o其它地區(qū)銷售占8%. All other 8% of sales.Top 5 Company Profiles5大公司基本狀況對比TerraIndustsAgriumPotashCorp SksMosaicCorp.CFIndusts

40、Sales$1.8 Bil$4.2 Bil$3.8 Bil$5.3 Bil$2.0 BilProfit$4.2 Mil$42 Mil$626 Mil$106 Mil$84 MilProfit % Sales0.25%1.00%16.6%2.0%1.7%Sales %In USA 70%70%Potash = 96%Profit30%81%Comment98% sales N100% Mining/Mfg33% eaN,P,K76% Min/Mfg75% N25% PSummary總結(jié)及啟示美國化肥工業(yè)的早期發(fā)展進(jìn)程Early Stages US Fertilizer Industry o自然資

41、源 礦物儲(chǔ)備Natural Resources mineral depositso創(chuàng)新的思想Innovative Ideaso簡單的采礦業(yè)和制造業(yè)Simple mining and manufacturingo企業(yè)聯(lián)合定價(jià)Cartels could manipulate pricingo沒有標(biāo)準(zhǔn) 以次充好Without standards adulterated productso較多的單一生產(chǎn)線Many single location operations20世紀(jì)初期Early 1900so方法過于復(fù)雜More sophisticated processeso擴(kuò)張數(shù)量Expanded num

42、ber of locationso政府執(zhí)行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)緩慢Slowly standards enforced by governmentso20世紀(jì)后期，化肥產(chǎn)品在很多情況下成為一些公司的副產(chǎn)品，例如主營業(yè)務(wù)是石油和天然氣的公司. Later in 1900s, Fertilizer operations were, in many cases, by-products of companys major businesses oil and gas companies, for example.US Fertilizer Industry 1950-1980s1950-1980年美國的化肥工業(yè)o重要

43、成長Significant growtho很多新加入者： Many new entrants with:n自然資源Natural Resourcesn一個(gè)想法An idean副產(chǎn)品帶來利潤By-product as a profitn所有的都能賺錢All could make money美國成熟的化肥行業(yè)Maturing US Fertilizer Industryo那些不能給客戶提供不同產(chǎn)品的企業(yè)已經(jīng)離開這個(gè)行業(yè). Those operators without a significant point of difference to offer customers have left the industry.o把化肥作為副產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)者(石油公司)不再具有重大的影響力Fertilizer as a by-product producer (oil companies) are no longer a significant influence.美國化肥企業(yè)在今天的成功Todays Successful US Fertilizer Companieso專注于化肥行業(yè)Devoted to fertilizer business.o大型石油和化學(xué)公司已經(jīng)離開這個(gè)行業(yè). Large oil and