國內(nèi)外鋼鐵工業(yè)展望(精)

1、2許中波博士Telaxmail: drxubyahooswm主要內(nèi)容1. 2005年中國及世界鋼鐵工業(yè)回顧2. 2006年國內(nèi)外鋼鐵工業(yè)展望3.中國鋼材進(jìn)岀口形勢分析BMC2005車國內(nèi)外働鐵 工業(yè)碩3BMC2005年世界鋼產(chǎn)量突破11噸BMC6世界主要產(chǎn)鋼國鋼產(chǎn)量Flat steel prices lowest in over two yearsBMCBMC板材價格迅速下降56Source:8.000 -200-so-_nsod-:8i35ss-3kf世界不同地區(qū)長材價格buu.ynaluadgBMCGermanyFar EastMAM

2、J JASONDJ FMAMJ JASONOJF7O0S55O駕400350300250200世界9大產(chǎn)鋼國人均鋼材消費x.witii Potential tor burtiierGrowthBMC世界10大產(chǎn)鋼國 buoyed by ChinaBMCBMC盡管中國鋼材產(chǎn)量持續(xù)增長了25年，但人均鋼材消費量很低Despite twenty five years of acceleratedgrowth China is still poor and steelconsumption per capita has a long way to go呎盡管上海和北京已經(jīng)有相對高的鋼材消耗，但中國大部

3、 地區(qū)鋼材消費量依然很低。區(qū)域之間很不平衡Although Shanghai and Beijing already show a relatively highlevel of steel consumption, most of China consumes very little.Regional inequality supports growth projections.uoxlujnsuo。-aBs2一deoadShanshalZhejiangChina 1壯：mh.GuAngdooQShandongFujian JilinChongqing Xinjiang HubeiChina

4、 2 sutw403minh Mbe,NingxiaShanxiYunnanQlnghalGansu InnerMong ShaanxiHenanChina 3 Anhui500minh.HalnMGuanqxlJiangxiGulshou100177 “200Shortand Medium TermCrude Steel OutlookBMC全球鋼產(chǎn)量中長期預(yù)測million tonnes2.1價梏瀕測GDP growth and forecasts20022003200420052006China8.3%9.5%9.5%9.0%8.2%India4.7%7.4%7.3%7.1%6.3%Af

5、rica3.6%4.6%5.3%4.5%5.9%CIS5.3%7.9%8.4%6.0%5.7%Middle East4.2%6.5%5.5%5.4%5.0%Newly industrialised Asia5.3%3.1%5.6%4.0%4.7%Central and East Europe4.4%4.6%6.5%4.3%4.6%World3.0%4.0%54.3%4.394) )Developing Asia4.8%5.8%6.1%4.1%3.8%Latin America0.0%2.2%5.6%4.1%3.8%USA1.6%2.7%4.2%3.5%3.3%Canada3.1%2.0%2.9

6、%2.9%3.2%UK2.0%2.5%3.2%1.9%2.2%Japan(0.3%)1.4%2.7%2.0%2.0%BMCBMCGDP預(yù)測15Euro area0.9%0.7%2.0%1.2%1.8%Source: IMF world economic outlook, September 2005Source: Universlty of MichiganBMC美國工業(yè)生產(chǎn)變化Source: E, GFMS-MC *3-month aver.1820EU indust rial production3.5 3.0 -2.5-2.0 -1.5-1.0 -0.5 -0.0 -0.5 48 - *

7、 i i i i * ii i i * i i i * * * * iAug 03 Dec 03 Apr 04 Aug 04 Dec 04 Apr 05 Aug 05Source: NTC Reseach, GFMS-MCBMC歐洲工業(yè)生產(chǎn)變化Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep030303040404Source: Eurostat. GFMS-MCDec Mar Jun040505*3-m onthBMC歐洲制造業(yè)采購指數(shù)變化19Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasers Index56-i55 year on-yearQ/ochange*22馳JK北美自

8、由貿(mào)易區(qū)國家粗鋼產(chǎn)量預(yù)測卜“2004Ql 05Q2 05Q3 05Q4 052005Ql 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 062006Canifdci16r4274,0394,0003r7953.9S415,7883,9223,9884,0004,10016f010USA98/2224,94524,1032345024,12896.3262X85524,05024,25024. SOO96,655Mvxko16,7204.2234,1703,9504,2S816.6014.2514,2004,2504,30017,001Total NAFTA131,66933,20732t27330,89532

9、,340128,71532,02832,23832,50032,900129,666FoK % change7.63.5%(1.7)(7.6)a 9%) )(2.2)(3.6)(0.1)5.2%Source：IISI, GFMS-MC21IJS prices ($/metric tonne)US prices ($/metric tonn)BMC美國鋼材價格預(yù)測1ZCX)O900200800700600500 400300Shreddedscrp SlabimportPlateioo Jan 03Source:JulJanJulJanJulJan030404OSOS06GFMS-MCSourc

10、e：GFMS-MCNAFTA Steel Production & Forecasts (000 tonnes)24美國主要板材生產(chǎn)廠US HR coil market share by capacityOther Re-rollersAK Steelintegrated 6%Otherminis9%US Steel24%10%Mittal30%Nucor11%Source: GFMS-MCBMC美國鋼材價格23icooooo9007100COOeoo00300200ooUS prices ($/metric tonne)JanJulJulJanJulJanC40405 OS06060

11、7Source: GFMS-MCUS prices ($/nietric tonne)BMCEU prices S/inetric tonne)13%26歐洲鋼材價格預(yù)測EU markets by end-useMisc.6%Source: turofer 18%歐盟鋼材消費結(jié)構(gòu)Source: GFMS-MC25EU prices S/inetric tonne)13%2628BMCkZF歐盟鋼材價格EU Steel Production & Forecasts (000 tonnes)2004QI 05Q2 05Q3 05Q4 05Frarce20,7705,1155.0384,55

12、0色gooGermany46,37411,66011,24710,50011400Itab28,3277.5687.4456,3007,300Spam17,5314,6004.7003,9004,000UK13,8043,2403,5363,2503fS00Other EU1341,14110,08810,0429,20010,000Total EU15167,94742,87142r00837,70040,8004.9%2.4(6.2D)Poland10,5922,2482,0171.9002400Czech7,0311,6801,48413501.500Othr EU107,9371,92

13、41,933lr9001,950Total EU1025.5605,8525,4345,2505,55010.3%9.2%；17.3%；(18.5)(9.Oo)Total EU25193,50748,72347,44242,95046,3505.6%0.9%5.4%；(7.9%；(4.30) )Source: I【SI, GFMS-MC2005QI 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 06200619r6034,9005,000已8005f10019,80044,50711,00011,55011,20011,50045,25028,6137,3007,5006,8007,30028,90017r2

14、004,4004,6004,5004r70018,20013,5263,6003,5003,2003,moo13,60039,93010,20010.4009,80010,20040,600163.37941r40042,55040,30042r100166.350(2.7%)f3 4%/1.3%6.9%3.2%1.8%8,2652,2002,4002,2502,3509,2006,1141,5501,6501,700lr7506,5507,7072,0002,0501,9502,0508,05022.0865,7506,1005r9006,15023,90013.6%；(1.7)12.3%1

15、2.4%10.8%8.2%185,46547,15048,65046,20048,250190.250(4.2)3.2%；2.5%7.6%4.1%2.6%EU prices ($/metric tonne)ShreddedEU prices ($/nietric tonne)source：GFMS-MCSource: GFMS-MC27BMC歐洲鋼材產(chǎn)量Asian prices ($/metrlc tonne)30BMC亞洲鋼材價格Source: GFMS-MCSource: GFMS-MC29BMC亞洲鋼材價格Asian prices ($/metric tonne)Source: GFMS

16、-MCSource: GFMS-MCAsian prices ($/metrlc tonne)31CIS prices (/metric tonne)32獨聯(lián)體國家鋼材價格CIS prices ($/metrlc tonne)800HDGJanJulJanJulJanJulJan03030404050506Source：GFMS MCJanJulJanJulJanJulJan0303040405050Source: GFMS MC31獨聯(lián)體國家鋼材價格CIS prices ($/metric tonn*)Source: GFMS MCSource: GFMS MC100 -700T200 20

17、034中國工業(yè)生產(chǎn)年變化率2120Average January 2003 to July 2005191817161412Chinese industrial productionyearyear/ochange*Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 04Source: ErGFMS MC040404040405050505month aver.中國固定資產(chǎn)投資年變化率33Source: E, GFMS-MCBMC中國鋼產(chǎn)量和產(chǎn)能Chinese output and capacity (m tonnes)Chinese HR plate produc

18、tion and*3 month movingSource: GFMS-MC36BMC中國板材產(chǎn)量和表觀消費量CapacityOutput400350300 250 200 -150 -1002003200420052006Source：IISI, CISA, GFMS-MC500 -450 35BMC38Data: CRU Analysis.世界上板材表觀消費量的變化20022003Data: CRU Analysis. Note: e estimate.BMC2004200537BMC39Data: CRU Analysis.世界不同地區(qū)板材表觀消費量變彳BMC4020042005Data

19、: CRU Analysis. Note: e estimate, f forecast.世界不同地區(qū)板材產(chǎn)量變化BMC近期世界上板材表觀消費量變化Data: CRU Analysis.2006BMCData: AISI, CRU Analysis.北美板材表觀消費量變化North American apparent sheet consumption, qtr-on-qtr changes, m s.tonsData: CRU Analysis.BMCUs imports of steel sheet (3-mth-avg), m s.tons200320042005美國板材進(jìn)口量變化2.5

20、2.01 .51 .00.50.0-0.5-1 .0-1.5Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1e Q2e Q3eJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ JBMCData: AISI, CRU Analysis.1 .21 .00.80.60.40.20.0200320042005BMC北美板材產(chǎn)量US Midwest sheet prices, fob mill, US$/s.ton2005North American s 怕 el sheet product!on (seasonally adjusted), m s.tons20042005Data: CRU Analysis.BMC美國板材價格80070060050040030020062007BMCData: CRU Analysis.BMCData: CRU Analysis.世界工業(yè)生產(chǎn)變化Year on-year changes in industrial productionGermany - Italy -UK4%Q1 Q2 Q3 04 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1