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2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 1 第十八講CompetitiveStrategyinDecliningIndustries 1 1StructuralDeterminantsofCompetitioninDecline1 2StrategicAlternativesinDecliningIndustries1 3HowtoChooseaSuitableStrategyinDecline1 4SomePitfallsinDeclineandPreparingforDecline 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 2 1 1StructuralDeterminantsofCompetitioninDecline CONDITIONSOFDEMAND uncertainty infirms perceptionsoffuturedemand rateandpatternofdecline slowly precipitously structureofremainingdemandpockets bargainingpower causeofdecline technologicalsubstitution demographics shiftsinneeds 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 3 EXITBARRIERS durableandspecializedassets fixedcostsofexit strategicexitbarriers informationbarriers managerialoremotionalbarriers governmentandsocialbarriers mechanismforassetdisposition 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 4 VOLATILITYOFRIVALRYThevolatilityofrivalrycanbeaccentuatedbysuppliersanddistributionchannels Thesituationmaybeworse ifthereareoneortwofirmsarerelativelyweakintermsoftheirstrategicpositionintheindustry buttheypossesssignificantoverallcorporateresourcesandastrongstrategiccommitmenttostayinthebusiness 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 5 1 2StrategicAlternativesinDecliningIndustries LEADERSHIPThestrategyisdirectedattakingadvantageofadecliningindustrywhosestructureissuchthattheremainingfirmorfirmshavethepotentialtoreapabove averageprofitabilityandleadershipisfeasiblevis viscompetitors Oncethispositionisattainedthefirmswitchestoaholdingpositionorcontrolledharveststrategy dependingonthesubsequentpatternofindustrysales 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 6 TacticalstepsforLeadership investinginaggressivecompetitiveactionsinpricing marketing orotherareasdesignedtobuildmarketshareandinsurerapidretirementofcapacityfromtheindustrybyotherfirms purchasingmarketsharebyacquiringcompetitorsorcompetitors productlinesatpricesabovetheiropportunitiesforsaleelsewhere thishastheeffectofreducingcompetitors exitbarriers purchasingandretiringcompetitors capacity whichagainlowersexitbarriersandinsuresthattheircapacityisnotsoldwithintheindustry 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 7 otherways suchasbywillinglymanufacturingsparepartsfortheirproducts takingoverlong termcontracts producingprivatelabelgoods demonstratingastrongcommitmenttostayinginthebusinessthroughpublicstatementsandbehavior demonstratingclearlysuperiorstrengthsthroughcompetitivemoves developinganddisclosingcredibleinformationthatreducesuncertaintyaboutfuturedecline raisethestakeforothercompetitorstostayinthebusinessbyprecipitatingtheneedforreinvestmentinnewproductsorprocessimprovements 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 8 NICHE Theobjectiveistoidentifyasegmentofthedecliningindustrythatwillnotonlymaintainstabledemandordecayslowlybutalsohasstructuralcharacteristicsallowinghighreturns Ultimatelythefirmmayeitherswitchtoaharvestordiveststrategy 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 9 HARVEST Theobjectiveistoseektooptimizecashflowfromthebusiness Itdoesthisby eliminatingorseverelycurtailingnewinvestment cuttingmaintenanceoffacilities takingadvantageofwhateverresidualstrengthsthebusinesshasinordertoraisepricesorreapbenefitsofpastgoodwillincontinuedsales 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 10 curtailingadvertisingandresearchcosts reducingthenumberofmodels shrinkingthenumberofchannelsemployed eliminatingsmallcustomers erodingserviceintermsofdeliverytime speedofrepair orsalesassistance Ultimatelythebusinessissoldorliquidated 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 11 QUICKEDIVESTMENT Thisstrategyrestsonthepremisethatthefirmcanmaximizeitsnetinvestmentrecoveryfromthebusinessbysellingitearlyindecline ratherthanbyharvestingandsellingitlaterorbyfollowingoneoftheotherstrategies Insomesituationsitmaybedesirabletodivestthebusinessbeforedecline orinthematurityphase 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 12 1 3HowtoChooseaSuitableStrategyinDecline Theanalyticalsteps Isthestructureoftheindustryconducivetoahospitable potentialprofitable declinephase Whataretheexitbarriersfacingeachandeverysignificantcompetitor Whowillexitquicklyandwhowillremain 2020 3 8 JiaLiangding 13 Ofthefirmsthatstay whataretheirrelativestrengthsforcompetinginthepocketsofdemandthatwillremainintheindustry Howseriouslymusttheirpositionbeerodedbeforeexitislikely giventheirexitbarriers Whataretheexitbarriersfacingthefir
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