全球發(fā)展中心（CGD）：2023年發(fā)展承諾指數(shù)

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CD

THECENTERFORGLOBALDEVELOPMENT

Commitmentto

Development

Index2023

20THANNIVERSARYEDITION

The

CommitmenttoDevelopmentIndex(CDI)

ranks40oftheworld’smostpowerfulcountriesonpoliciesthataffectglobaldevelopment.Inanincreasinglyinterconnectedworld,decisionsmadebytherichestcountrieshaveimpactsfarbeyondtheirborders,andoftendisproportionatelyaffecttheworld’spoorestandmostvulnerable.Yetgreaterglobalprosperityisinthecommoninterestofall,creatingneweconomicandtradeopportunities,increasinginnovation,andreducingrisksposedbyglobalhealth,security,andclimatecrises.

Becausedevelopmentdependsonmuchmorethanjusthowforeignaidbudgetsarespent,theCDIcoverseightdistinctpolicyareas:

DEVELOPMENTFINANCE

QuantityandQuality

WhatdoestheCDImeasure?

Weassesscountriesacrossmorethan40indicatorstocomeupwithrankingsforeachoftheeightpolicycomponents,aswellaseachcountry’soverallcommitmenttodevelopment.Countriesscorewellforthingslikegenerousandhigh-qualityfinancefordevelopment,transparentinvestment,lowbarrierstotradefordevelopingcountries,andmigrationpolicieswhichareopenandpromoteintegration.Policiesthatenhanceglobalpublicgoods—suchasfosteringglobalhealththroughdiseaseprevention,supportingtechnologicalresearch,protectingbiodiversityandtheclimate,andcontributingtoglobalsecurity—alsocontributetohighscores.

Howarecountriesdoing?

Swedentopsthisyear’sCDI,followedbyGermanycominginsecondandNorwayinthirdplace.Swedenranksfirstindevelopmentfinance,migration,andenvironment,andsecondinhealth.Itsperformanceintechnology,however,remainsrelativelyweakwithlowlevelsofresearchcollaboration.ThoughSweden

alsofinishedtopinthepreviousCDI,itsleadoverthenext-best-performingcountrieshasshortened.

Germanycomessecondoverall,improvingfiveplacessincethepreviousCDI.ThisisthanksinparttoasubstantialincreaseinitsFinanceforInternationalDevelopment,whichrosefrom0.46percentto0.61percentofitsGrossNationalIncome(GNI).Norwayranksthird,performingwellindevelopmentfinanceandtechnology—andrankingfirstforinvestment—butunderperformingontradeandenvironmentduetohighagriculturalsubsidiesandfossilfuelproduction.

FinlandandFrancecompletethetopfive;theformeralso

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COMMITMENTTO

DEVELOPMENTINDEX2023

Eachofthecomponentsisunderpinnedbyaseriesofindicatorsof

policyeffectivenesswhicharestandardizedandweightedaccordingtotheirimportanceindevelopment.

comesfirstonhealth,whilethelatterscoresstronglyonitspoliciessupportinginvestmentindevelopingcountries.

TheUnitedKingdomhasdroppedtwoplacesoverall,inpartduetoaseriesofcutstoitsaidbudget—withFinanceforInternationalDevelopmentfallingfrom0.63percentto0.41percentofGNI—butalsobecausethataidisnowlessfocusedonpoorerrecipients.

GiventheeconomicimportanceofcountriesintheG20,weincludeninemiddle-incomecountriesintheranking.Amongthisgroup,SouthAfricarankshighest,in25thplace,withaboveaveragecontributionsintechnology,security,andmigration.BrazilandTürkiyewerenexthighestwithrelativestrengthsoninvestmentandmigrationrespectively.

Changesinrankcanreflectpolicychangesorimprovementsindata.TheUnitedArabEmirateshasrisensevenranksto32ndoverallbutcomestopontechnology.Withthepublicationofnewdata,weseethatithoststhehighestnumberofforeigntertiarystudentsrelativetoitsdomesticstudentpopulation,whileaverageincomesofthecountriesoforiginofthesestudentsisthesixthlowestamongCDIcountries.GreeceandSwitzerlandalsorosebyfiveormoreplaces.

Collectiveprogressordecline?

Whiletherankingshighlighthowindividualcountriesaredoingrelativetootherpowerfuleconomies,lookingacrosstheindicatorscanshineaspotlightonareasofcollectiveprogressordecline.

Acrossallcomponents,mostindicatorsmeasuringcountries’spendingsawupwardmovement,withmixedresultsfordevelopment.Inlinewiththepost-COVID-19fiscalexpansion,overhalfofCDIcountriesincreasedtheirclimate-harmingfossilfuelsubsidies,trade-distortingagriculturalsubsidies,andfishingsubsidiesencouragingstockdepletion.Ontheupside,however,asimilarproportionofCDIcountrygovernmentsalsoincreasedspendingontechnologicalresearch,withsubstantialeffortsespeciallyontaxincentivesforprivatecompanies.

Ondevelopmentfinance,weseeamixedpicture.AlthoughamajorityofCDIcountriesincreasedspendingrelativetothesizeoftheireconomies,includingtomeetthechallengesofthecontinuingfall-outoftheCOVID-19crisis,atthesametime,severalplayerswithlargerdevelopmentbudgetsonanabsolutescale—suchastheUK,Norway,andChina—havecutback.

Notably,morethanthree-quartersofCDIcountriesreducedmigrantinflows,withmovementrestrictionsimplementedduringCOVID-19disproportionatelyaffectingimmigrationfromlower-incomecountries.

HalfofCDIcountriesalsosawdecliningdomesticvaccinationratesfornon-COVID-19vaccines,markingareversaloflong-termgainsinexpandingcoverage.

DevelopmentTrendsandInsights

The20thanniversaryoftheCDIcoincideswiththemid-waypointtoachievingAgenda2030andtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),yetthisyear’spublicationoccursagainstabackdropofmajorchallenges,fromthefiscalimpactofCOVID-19andcost-of-livingpressures,tosurgesofrefugees,andtheincreasingfrequencyofclimate-drivenevents.Inthissection,wehighlightthreemajorareaswherecountries’responsestothesechallengesarebeingcaptured.

1.Countries’developmentfocuschallengedamidstRussia’s

disastrousinvasionofUkraine

Russia’sinvasionofUkrainehasnotonlyhadadevastatingimpactonUkraine’speople,buthashadmajoreffectsworldwide,enablingsomecountriestostepup,butalsochallengingthedevelopmentfocusofothers.PreviouseditionsoftheCDIhavereflectedRussia’slowcommitmenttodevelopment—itscorednearthebottomineveryyearithasbeenassessed,withparticularlylowscoresonsecurityforthenotablyhigh“conflict-potential”ofitsglobalarmssales.Thisyear,we’veadjustedRussia’sscoreontwoindicatorssothatitspeacekeepingcontributionisnegative,andwedonotgiveitcreditforhostingUkrainianrefugees.AlongwithRussia’swiderscoresreflectingitslackofcommitmenttodevelopment,itcomeslastontheCDI.

Inthewakeoftheinvasion,othercountrieshavebeenforcedtostepuptheircommitmenttodevelopment,mostimmediatelybyreceivingrefugees.Czechia,Poland,theSlovakRepublic,andIrelandhaveeachseenatleastaneight-foldincreaseinthenumberofrefugeestheyacceptsincebeforethewar.Evenso,theseeffortsputintocontextjusthowsignificantTürkiye’songoinghostingofSyrianrefugeesis,asitremainsthetop-rankingcountryonthisindicator.Still,manyofthesecountrieshavenotscoredaswellontheirmigrantintegrationandprotectionpolicies,anditremainstobeseenwhetherrecentsurgesinrefugeeinflowswillultimatelyleadtoimprovementsontheirintegrationeffortsinthefuture.

Foodshortagesresultingfromtheinvasionhavealsoledsomecountriestoimplementnewfood-relatedtraderestrictions,exacerbatinginflationelsewhere,andimpactingthenutritionandhealthsecurityoflower-incomecountries.EvenwiththeeffectofsanctionstargetingRussiaexcluded,wefindthatcountriessuchasArgentina,Canada,India,Indonesia,Türkiye,andNewZealandhaveplacedexportrestrictionsonover10typesoffoodproducts,withanimpactondevelopingcountriesinthelasttwoyears.

Whilemuchoftheknock-onimpactofthewarisyettofeedintotheavailabledatausedintheCDI,weexpecttoseenegativeeffectsoncross-borderdevelopmentfinanceasfundingisdivertedtohostingrefugeesand

Figure1.Refugeehostingin2022

Note:UkrainianrefugeestoRussiaareexcludedfromRussia’sscore

rebuildingUkraine,aswellasgrowthinfossilfuelsubsidiesasgovernmentsrespondtohighenergyprices.

2.Climate:wordsversusaction

Climatechangeisincreasinglyrecognizedasthemostseriousthreattodevelopmentandhumanity;climate-relateddisasters,suchasthe2022floodsinPakistan,arebecomingmorefrequentandsevere,andthreatentoundoyearsofhard-wondevelopmentprogress.Thoughmuchofthediscoursehasfocusedonvolumesofclimatefinancegoingtodevelopingcountries,intheCDI’senvironmentcomponentwelookathowthemostpowerfulcountries’policiesathomesupport(orhinder)globalclimategoals.Thecountriesweassesshaveanoutsizedimpactonglobalclimatetrends,accountingforsome74percentofcurrentglobalgreenhousegasemissions.

Weseemixedtrends.Ontheonehand,duringCOVID-19,emissions(excludingthosefromlanduse)generallyfellacrosstheCDIcountries—inthelatestdata,37countriesreducedtheiremissionspercapita.Ontheotherhand,acrossallCDIcountrieswithavailabledata,government

Figure2.PlannedGHGemissionsreductionsin2030

example,isoneofjustnineCDIcountrieswhichdoesnotimplementacarbonpricingscheme,andNorwayhasthehighestrateoffossilfuelproductionofanycountryintheCDI.Thismayhighlightpolicyincoherence—challenginglower-incomecountriestoavoidfossilfuelswhiledoinglittletoreducetheminhigh-incomecountries.

3.Technologyiseverything,and“traditional”developmentactorsarelagging

Atonelevel,thecreationandspreadofknowledgeiseverythingfordevelopment—frombasichealthcarepracticestokeepchildrenandmothersalive,totheunderpinningsofmanufacturingandskills-basedeconomies,orrenewabletechnologiestoachievesustainabledevelopment.ButagainstthebackdropofCOVID-19,manycountrieshaveexpressedconcernsthataccesstovitalnewtechnologies,suchasvaccines,isnotbeingsharedequitably.

Thisyear,thetechnologycomponentisledbytheUAE,SouthKorea,andAustria.SouthAfricacomes6th,SaudiArabiacomes8th,andChinacomes15th,whiletheUnitedStates—oftenseenastheworld’sinnovationhub—comesin28th.Sweden,whichcomes1stontheCDIoverall,alsocomesinthebottomhalfontechnology.So,whatdrivestheseresults?

Note:Countriesareorderedfrombesttoworst,bythe%reductionwhichmeetingtheNDCtargetwouldrepresentbeyondcurrentprojections.

subsidiesforfossilfuelsincreasedbetween2019and2021to$322billion(anincreasefrom0.28percentto0.38percentofGNI),evenbeforeaccountingformeasurestakenafterthemostrecentspikesinenergycosts.

Thisyear,wealsoincorporatedanewindicatorwhichlooksatthelevelofambitioninemissionsreductionsplans(NationallyDeterminedContributions,orNDCs,submittedbycountriestotheUNFCCC).Itassessesthedegreetowhichtheseplansrepresentareductioninemissionsbeyondwhatthecountriesareprojectedtobeemittingin2030givencurrentpolicies.ThoughtheaverageCDIcountryplanstoreduceemissionsby17percentrelativetoprojections,somecountries—includingIndonesia,Türkiye,Russia,India,andChina—showlittletonoambitiontoreduceemissions,andtheirNDCtargetswouldrepresentanincreaseinemissionsabovecurrentprojections.

Evensome“ambitious”countriesmaybeunrealistic—IsraelandNorwayhaveambitiousclimatetargets,buttheyarenotbackedupbykeypolicies.Israel,for

Whilethetechnologycomponentassessespolicieswhichsupportdomesticresearchanddevelopment(R&D)—andtherefore,inthelong-term,policiesthatexpandtheglobalpoolofknowledge—themajorityofthecomponentassessespoliciesencouragingthetransferanddiffusionoftechnology,especiallywithpoorercountries.SouthKoreahasthehighestR&DexpenditureacrosstheCDI,andmany“traditional”actors—includingAustria,Norway,France,Germany,theNetherlands,andJapan—alsospendatleastonepercentoftheirGNIonR&D.

Butmanyoftheemergingeconomiesleadontechnology

diffusion.TheUAEacceptsmoreforeignstudentsthananyothercountry,withover70percentofitstertiarystudentpopulationcomingfromabroad,andmostofthesecomingfromrelativelypoorercountries.SaudiArabiaandSouthAfricaarethisyear’sleadersonresearchcollaboration,withtheiracademicsco-authoringresearchwithpartnersfromlower-incomecountriesmoresothandootherCDIcountries.Meanwhile,ChinaandIndonesiaareassessedashavingthemostdevelopmentallyfriendlyprovisionsonintellectualpropertyrightswithintheirfreetradeagreementswithdevelopingcountries,whileEUcountriesandtheUnitedStatesaremorerestrictivethanisthenormundertheWorldTradeOrganization.ThisalsoreflectsamissedopportunityformanyCDIcountries—economicgrowthdependsontradeandsharedtechnologicalprogress.

20YearsofAssessingCommitmenttoDevelopment

Itis20yearssincetheCDIwasfirstpublished.Since

2003,thedevelopmentlandscapehaschanged,andtheCDIhasevolvedalongsidenewunderstandingsofwhatandwhomattermostfordevelopment.

ThefirsteditionoftheCDI—publishedjustafew

yearsaftertheMilleniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs)

wereestablished—onlylookedatsixcomponentsand

assessedjust21countries.Figure3showshowthose

foundercountriesperformovertheentireperiod.TheNetherlandswastopin2003withstrongscoresonbothaid(nowdevelopmentfinance)andtrade,butithas

sincefallen.Thisyear’stop-rankedcountry,Sweden,wasranked8thin2003,withlaggingperformanceonsecurityandinvestment.

Twodecadesago,theIraqWarunderscoredthe

importanceofsecurityfordevelopment.Russia’s

invasionofUkrainelastyearservesasastarkreminderoftheharmfulimpactsofarmedconflict,withthe

resultingsurgeinoilandfoodpricesundermining

development.Asintheearly2000s,debtsustainabilityhasbecomeanurgentconcern,withthedebtburdensofmanycountriesexacerbatedbyrisinginterestrates,butonthebackofarecoveryfromaglobalpandemicratherthanthesustainedeconomicgrowthoftheearlier

period.

Othernotablemoversoverthe20yearsareJapan,

whichwasregularlylastinthefirstdecade,and

Finland,France,andGermany,whoeachimproved

significantly.Denmark,theNetherlands,NewZealand

andSpainhavewanedintheircommitment.TheUShasconsistentlyrankedinthebottomquarter,butCanadahasimproved.

We’vebeenabletoassessahandfulofkeyCDIindicatorsoverthefull20years,andtheytellasurprisingly

positivestory.Forexample,annualmigrationtothe

40CDIcountrieshasincreasedbyalmosthalf,from

nearly4millionperyearto5.9million.Researchand

developmentexpenditurehasrisenfrom0.66percentofGNIto0.75percent.Ontrade,33outof40countriesnowhaveloweraveragetariffs.

Onfinancefordevelopment,theeffortsoftraditional

providers—thoseintheOECD’sDevelopmentAssistanceCommittee(DAC)—outpacedGNIfrom2003to2013,

risingfrom0.24percentto0.30percent,butcross-

borderfinancehasflatlinedsince.Still,Chinaandothermiddle-incomeeconomieshadaddedaroundafurthersixthtototalfinancebytheendoftheperiod.Aggregategreenhousegasemissionshavegoneupby40percent;but30countries(notthelargest)havereducedperheademissions.

Overtwodecades,convergencebetween“emergingeconomies”—especiallytheBRICS—andtraditional

Figure3.CDIranksovertheyearsfortheoriginal

21countries

Note:ChangesinrankreflectnotonlychangingperformancebutalsosuccessivemethodologicalimprovementsundertakenbytheIndex

develop