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ByInthisargument,thearguerconcludesthat…doing…willleadto…Tosupporttheconclusion,thearguerpointsoutthat…Inaddition,thearguerreasonsthat…Theargumentsuffersfromseveralcritical自己改正根據(jù)因果Inthisargument,thearguerrecommendsthat…shouldadvise…to…Tojustifythisclaim,thearguerprovidestheevidencethat…Thus…shouldfollowthestudy’srecommendationand…inorderto…Theconclusioninthisargumentisthat…canexpectto…bydoing…Insupportofthisprediction,thearguerclaimsthat…Moreover,thearguerassumesthatthisattempthas…benefits:1)to;2)to;3)to;Thisargumentisfraughtwithvague,oversimplified,andunwarrantedassumptions.Inthisargument,theargueradvocatesthat…should…Thisrecommendationisbasedontheobservationthat…Meanwhile,thearguerassumes…tobeabetterchoice…because…Thisargumentisproblematicfor…reasons.Inthisanalysis,thearguerclaimsthat…should…Tosubstantiatetheconclusion,thearguercitestheexampleof…where…Inaddition,thearguerassumesthat…Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralcriticalflaws.Themajorproblemwiththisargumentisthat…Anotherflawthatweakensthisargumentisthat.……thearguerfailstoconsiderseveralotherrelevantfactorsthatmightinfluence…Forinstance…since…what’smore…Whensamplesareusedtomakegeneralclaimsaboutaparticulargroup,thesamplesshouldbecloseenoughintimetothegenerationtheyareusedtosupport,sothathistoricalchangeswillnotinvalidatethegeneralization調(diào)查surveyThesampleofthesurveyconductedbythe…isButwearetoldnothingaboutthewaythepollwasconductedandhowwellitrepresentedthepublicopinions..(民意測驗)HowmanypeopleThesampleofthesurveyisnot(平均值)Thestudyrevealed,onaverage,onlyasmallstatisticalcorrelationthedataoftheresearchisthesampleistoosmalltheratiooffourtothereisonlyfiguresbutnoproportionofthesurveyInsufficientIfthe[respondents]onlystandforatinyproportionofthewhole[group],weshouldnotbesosureabouttheconclusionthat[thewholegroup…]ThearguercommitsafallacyofhastyItwasonlycarriedoutinSunCity,butthearguerappliesitsresulttoallthecompany’smarketswhiledoesn’tshowuswhetherSunCityisarepresentativemarketofthewholemarkets.副作用有的病人會對抗生素過敏Buttheproblemisthatthetwosituationsarenotsimilarenoughtojustifytheanalogicaldeduction.Thecomparisoninthisargumentisincompleteandselective.Thearguerdiscoversthat…However,thearguerfailstoprovideanyinformationregarding…respectivelyFurthermorethearguerignoresthepossibilitythat…may…Unlesstheargueralsotakesthisfactorintoconsideration,thecomparisonisunconvincing.Itisverylikelythat…andhence…variesConfusingcausalrelationwiththearguercommitsafallacyofhastygeneralizationEvenifthemaintenanceoftheairlinehasbeenimprovedasaresultofsendingitsmechanicstotheSeminar,whichis,ofcourse,anunwarrantedassumption,itdoesnotfollowthat就算怎樣,也不怎樣Finally,thearguerhintsthat…buthefailstoanalyzethecauses.Isitbecause…orbecause…?Thefactthat…doesnotnecessarilyimplythatFirstofall,theargumentisbasedonahastygeneralization.Accordingtothecitedstudies…whichisunderstandable.Itisverylikelythat…andhence…variestheactualamountoftimefordoing…respectivelyThesurveyisbasedontwoisolatedexamples.ThearguershouldsurveymorehospitalsofbothHowlargewasthesampleHowmanypeopleparticipated?WhatextentdothisparticipatorsimprovetheirThearguerfailstoindicatetheattitudeoftheresidentstotheABC'sThearguercommitsafallacyofbeggingthequestioninassumingthatdoesnotlendstrongsupporttowhatthearguermaintains.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovidemoreevidenceconcerningthepercentageoftheaffectedfamiliesandtheirgeographicaldistribution.Insummary,theconclusionreachedinthisargumentisinvalidandInconclusion,thearguerfailstoestablishacausalrelationshipbetween…Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovideevidencethat…Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationabout…Asitstands,theargumentisnotwellreasoned.Tomakeitlogicallyacceptable,thearguerwouldhavetodemonstratethat…istheonlyconditionthat…Additionally,thearguermustprovideevidencetoruleoutotherpossiblecausesofthe…Toconclude,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitArgument37ThefollowingisamemorandumfromthedirectorofpersonneltothepresidentofGet-AwayAirlines."Sinceourmechanicsareresponsibleforinspectingandmaintainingouraircraft,Get-AwayAirlinesshouldpaytosendthemtotheQuality-CareSeminar,atwo-weekseminaronpropermaintenanceprocedures.Irecommendthisseminarbecauseitislikelytobeawiseinvestment,giventhatthe performanceofitsmaintenancecrewsimprovedmarkedly maintenancecrewsperformmanyofthesamefunctionsasdoourmechanics,includingrefuelingandrepairingengines.ThemoneywespendonsendingourstafftotheseminarwillinevitablyleadtoimprovedmaintenanceandthustogreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofitsforourInthisargument,thearguerconcludesthatsendingthemechanicsofGet-AwayAirlinestoatwo-weekQuality-CareSeminaronpropermaintenanceprocedureswillautomaticallyleadtoimprovedmaintenanceandtogreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofitsfortheairline.Tosupporttheconclusion,thearguerpointsoutthattheperformanceofthemaintenancecrewsintheautomobileracingindustryimprovedmarkedlyaftertheircrewshadattendedtheseminar.Inaddition,thearguerreasonsthatsincethemaintenancecrewsoftheautomobileracingindustryandthemechanicsofGet-AwayAirlinesperformmanyofthesamefunctions,theairlineswillgainsimilarbenefitsfromthetrainingprogram.Thisargumentsuffersfromseveralcriticalfallacies.First,theargumentIsbasedonafalseanalogy.Thearguercrewsperformmanysimilarfunctions,buthedoesnotprovideanyevidencethattheirfunctionsareindeedcomparable.Asweknow,thestructure,operationandfunctionofairplanesandthoseofautomobilesdifferconspicuously.Itistruethatboththeairplaneandtheautomobileneedrefuelingandenginemaintenance,butevenherethereexistfundamentaldifferences:thestructureandthebuildingmaterialsofeachother'senginesaredifferent,soistheoiltheyuse.Therefore,eventhoughthetwo-weekQuality-CareSeminarprovedeffectiveinimprovingtheperformanceofthemaintenancecrewsintheautomobileracingindustry,thereisnoguaranteethatitwillworkjustaswellforairplanemechanics. generalization.EvenifthemaintenanceoftheairlinehasbeenimprovedasaresultofsendingitsmechanicstotheSeminar,whichis,ofcourse,anunwarrantedassumption,itdoesnotfollowthattherewillbegreaterprofitsaswellasgreatercustomersatisfactionfortheairline.Asweknow,customersatisfactiondependsonseveralmajorfactorsotherthangoodmaintenanceoftheairplane.Forinstance,customersaregenerallyconcernedaboutthepunctuality,theon-boardservice,theticketprice,theluggagehandlingprocedureandeventhediscount,allofwhichareignoredbythearguer.Besides,thearguerdoesnotprovideanysolidinformationconcerninghowtheairplanecanimproveitsprofits.UnlessGet-AwayAirlinescansignificantlyincreaseitscustomersorpassengersandatthesametimecutdownitscosts,bothofwhichareunknownfromthisargument,thereisnoguaranteethatitwill"inevitably"harvestgreaterprofits.Actually,thearguer'srecommendationofinvestingin trainingprogram onlyway toincrease satisfactionandprofitswouldmostprobablyturnouttobeineffectiveandmisleading.Inconclusion,thearguerfailstoestablishacausalrelationshipbetweensendingGet-Away'smechanicstotheQuality-CareSeminarandimprovedmaintenance,greatercustomersatisfactionandgreaterprofitsfortheairline.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatautomobilemaintenanceandairplanemaintenancearesimilarineveryaspect.Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationabouttherelationshipbetweenimprovedmaintenanceandgreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterArgument47:ThenationofClariacoversavastphysicalarea.Butdespitewidegeographicdifferences,manycitizensareexperiencingrisingcostsofelectricity.ArecentstudyofhouseholdelectriccostsinClariafoundthatfamilieswhocooledtheirhouseswithfansalonespentmoreonelectricitythandidfamiliesusingairconditionersaloneforcooling.However,thosehouseholdsthatreportedusingbothfansand householdsthatusedeitherfansorairconditionersalone. should recommendationandusebothairconditionersandfansinordertosavemoneyonelectricity.Inthisargument,thearguerrecommendsthatClariashouldordertoreducethecostofelectricity.Tojustifythisclaim,thearguerprovidestheevidencethatmanycitizensofClariasufferfromtherisingcostsofelectricity.Inaddition,hecitestheresultofarecentstudythatusingfansalonecostsmorethanusingairconditionersalone,andthatusingbothairconditionersandfanscostslessthaneitherusingfansorairconditionersalone.Acarefulexaminationofthisargumentwouldrevealhowgroundlesstheconclusionis.Inthefirstplace,thearguerfailstotakeintoaccountthegeographicalfactorsintheanalysis.WhileweareinformedthattherearewidegeographicaldifferencesinthenationofClaria,andthatmanycitizensareexperiencingrisingcostsofelectricity,thearguerfailstomakecleartheexactnumberofthosecitizensortheirpercentageinthenationalpopulation,aswellasthegeographicaldistributionofthesecitizens.Ifonlyasmallportionofthewholepopulationareexperiencingtherisingcostsofelectricitywhilemostfamiliesdonothavesimilarexperience,thenthereasonmightbethattheformerdonotuseelectricitysparingly.Inthiscase,therisingcostsofthosefamilieshavenothingtodowithwhatkindofelectricappliancetheyusetocooltheirhouses.Orifonlyfamilieslivinginhotareasarespendingmoremoneyoncooling,thenitisbothfansandairconditioners.Intheabsenceofallthisinformation,itisimpossibleforustoevaluatetherecommendedpolicythatisintendedtohelpeveryhouseholdnationwidetoreducetheirelectricitycost.Inthesecondplace,thecomparisoninthisargumentisincompleteandselective.Thearguerdiscoversthatusingfansaloneismorecosteffectivethanusingairconditionersalone,andthatusingbothfansandairconditionersaretheleastexpensivewayofcooling.However,thearguerfailstoprovideanyinformationregardingtheactualamountoftimeforusing,respectively,fansalone,airconditionersalone,andbothfansandairconditionersinthosethreegroupsofsurveyedfamilies.ItisverylikelythatthesethreegroupsoffamiliesarelocatedinthreeverydifferentclimaticregionsofClaria,andhencetheamountofdaysoftheyearduringwhichtheyneedtocooltheirhousesvariessignificantly.Familieslivingincoolerareasofthenationcertainlycooltheirhousesforfewerhoursandhenceuselesselectricitythanfamilieslivinginhotareas,nomatterwhatcoolingappliancetheyuse.Unlesswearecertainthatthesurveyedfamiliesliveinthesameclimaticregion,orthattheyneedtocooltheirhousesforthesameamountofhoursinthesameyearalthoughtheyliveindifferentregions,whichisveryunlikely,wehaveeveryreasontodoubtthetrustworthinessofthiscomparativestudy.Furthermore,thearguerignoresthepossibilitythatthefamilieswhoarespendingmoreonelectricitymaybeusingmoreelectricityforpurposesother-thancooling.Unlesstheargueralsotakesthisfactorintoconsideration,thecomparisonisunconvincing.Tosumup,theconclusionlackscredibilitybecausetheevidencecitedintheanalysisdoesnotlendstrongsupporttowhatthearguermaintains.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovidemoreevidenceconcerningthepercentageoftheaffectedfamiliesandtheirgeographicalTobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationregardingtheelectricexpenserelevanttotheactualamountoftimeforcoolingamong,respectively,thethreegroupsofhouseholdsandtheamountofelectricityusedforotherpurposesinallthreegroupsoffamiliesundersurvey.Argument57:ThefollowingappearedinaletterfromadepartmentchairpersontothepresidentofPierceUniversity."SomestudiesconductedbyBronstonCollege,whichisalsolocatedinasmalltown,revealthatbothmateandfemaleprofessorsarehappierlivinginsmalltownswhentheirspousesarealsoemployedinthesamegeographicarea.Therefore,intheinterestofattractingthemostgiftedteachersandresearcherstoourfacultyandimprovingthemoraleofourentirestaff,weatPierceUniversityshouldofferemploymenttothespouseofeachnewfacultymemberwehire.Althoughwecannotexpectallofferstobeacceptedortobeviewedasanidealjoboffer,themoneyinvestedinthiseffortwillclearlybewellspentbecause,iftheirspouseshaveachanceofemployment,newprofessorswillbemorelikelytoacceptouroffers."Inthisanalysis,thearguerclaimsthatPierceUniversityshouldofferemploymenttothespouseofeachnewfacultymemberthattheyhire.Tosubstantiatetheconclusion,thearguercitesspouseemployedinthesamegeographicalarea.Inaddition,thearguerassumesthatthisofferofapossiblejobfortheirspouseonthecampus,nomatterwhetheritwillbeaccepted,istheonlyfactorthatnewprofessorsconsiderindecidingwhethertoacceptauniversityposition.Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralcriticalflaws.Firstofall,theargumentisbasedonahastygeneralization.Accordingtothecitedstudies,professorsatBronstonCollegearehappierlivinginsmalltownswhentheirspousesarealsoemployedinthelocalareathanwhentheirspousesworkindistantareas,whichisunderstandable.Thisfacttellsverylittleaboutwhatactualconditionstheprofessorsoftenconsiderasimportantwhentheychoosewherework.Evenifweacceptthearguer'sassumptionthatwhethertheirspousecanfindajobinthelocalareaistheonlyimportantquestionthatnewprofessorsconsiderwhentheydecidewhethertoacceptanofferinauniversitysituatedinasmalltown,thearguer'srecommendationisstillunconvincing.OnlywhentheofferofemploymenttothespouseisregardedasanidealoneandthereforeacceptedisitlikelythattheprofessorwillconsideracceptingtheprofessorswillacceptPierce'sofferwhethertheirspousecanfindsatisfactoryemploymentinthelocalarea.Inaddition,thearguerfailstoconsiderseveralotherrelevantfactorsthatmayinfluencenewprofessors'decision.Forinstance,sincePierce'slocationisnotideal,thepayitoffersshouldbehighenoughtobeattractive.Newgiftedprofessorsarealsoconcernedaboutthepositiontheycanhaveandthecoursestheyaresupposedtoteachinthenewuniversity.What'smore,whatresearcherscaremostaboutmightbetheuniversity'sresearchconditionssuchaslaboratoryequipments,adequateresearchfunds,Finally,thearguerhintsthatthemoraleofPierce'sentirestaffislow,buthefailstoanalyzethecauses.Isitbecausethemanagementoftheuniversityispoor,orbecausethepayistoolow,orbecausethelocalareasuffersfromeconomicdepression,orbecausethelocalenvironmentisseverelydamagedbyindustrialpollution?Underthesecircumstances,offeringemploymenttothespousewouldbeineffectiveatallforthepurposeofattractingmorenewprofessors.Furthermore,iftheseproblemsdoexist,evenifPiercesucceedsinhiringmanyofthemostgiftedteachersandresearchersofthecountry,thegeneralmoraleofthewholefacultywouldremainlow.Asitstands,theargumentisnotwellreasoned.Tomakeitlogicallyacceptable,thearguerwouldhavetodemonstratethatanofferofemploymenttothespouseistheonlyconditionthatnewprofessorsconsideronacceptingPierce'soffer.Additionally,thearguermustprovideevidencetoruleoutotherpossiblecausesofthelowstaffmoraleattheuniversity.Argument67:ThefollowingisamemorandumwrittenbythedirectorofpersonneltothepresidentoftheCedar"ItwouldbeamistaketorehiretheGood-TasteCompanytosupplythefoodinouremployeecafeterianextyear.Itisthesecondmostexpensivecatererinthecity.Inaddition,itspriceshaverisenineachofthelastthreeyears,anditrefusestoprovidemealsforpeopleonspecialdiets.Justlastmonththreeemployeescomplainedtomethattheynolongereatinthecafeteriabecausetheyfindtheexperienceunbearable.OurcompanyshouldinsteadhireDiscountFoods.Discountisafamily-ownedlocalcompanyanditoffersavariedmenuoffishandpoultry.IrecentlytastedasamplelunchatoneofthemanycompaniesthatDiscountservesanditwasdelicious—anindicationthathiringDiscountwillleadtoimprovedemployeeInthisargument,theargueradvocatesthattheCedarCorporationshouldhireDiscountFoods,afamily-ownedlocalcompanythatoffersavariedmenuoffishandpoultry,insteadoftheGood-TasteCompany,thepresentsupplieroffoodinCedar'semployeecafeteria.ThisrecommendationisbasedontheobservationthattheGood-Tasteisexpensive,thatitspriceshavekeptrising,thatitdoesnotservespecialdiets,andthatthreeemployeescomplainedaboutit.Meanwhile,thearguerassumesDiscounttobeabetterchoiceforCedarbecauseasamplelunchofthiscompanythatthearguerhappenedtotastewasdelicious.Thisargumentisproblematicfortworeasons.Themajorproblemwiththisargumentisthatthearguer Good-Tasteshouldbefired.First,thefactthattheGood-Tasteisthesecondmostexpensivecatererinthecitymaybeduetoitsbetterfoods,qualityserviceandhighreputationinthisindustry.Second,thefactthatitspriceshavebeenrisingforthelastthreeyearsmaybeduetonationwideinflationortherisingcostinthefoodindustry.Third,thefactthatGood-TasterefusestoservespecialdietsdoesnotindicatethatitcannotmeettheneedsofCedarCorporationunlessthearguercandemonstratethatGood-Tasteservedspecialdietsatfirstandnowitrefusestodoso,hencedisappointingCedar'semployees,andthatmanyormostofCedar'semployeesareonspecialdiets.Finally,thearguerfailstoexplainwhythreeemployeescomplained,whichmakesitimpossibleforustoevaluatetheoverallserviceofGood-Taste.Maybethesethreepeoplearethosefewonspecialdiets.Eveniftheyhaveeveryreasontocomplainaboutthefoodsorserviceofthesupplieronacertainday,thesethreepeople'sopinionlacksthenecessaryrepresentativenessbasedonwhichwecanmakeanygeneraljudgmentconcerningtheoverallperformanceofGood-Taste.Anotherpointworthconsideringisthearguer'shastygeneralization.WeareinformedthatDiscountservesfishandpoultry,butwedonotknowwhetherCedar'semployeesallpreferthislimitedmenu.Wecanbelievethatonesamplelunchthatthearguerhappenedtotastewasindeeddelicious,butbasedonthissliminformation,wecanneverevaluatetheoverallperformanceToconclude,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitstands.Beforeweaccepttheconclusion,thearguermustpresentmorefactsthatGood-TastehasindeedfailedtomeettherequirementsofCedarCorporation.Tosolidifytheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoproducemoreevidenceconcerningthefoodsandserviceofDiscountandhowtheycanbettermeettheneedsofCedar'semployees.Argument77:ThefollowingisarecommendationfromthedeanatFoleyCollege,asmallliberalartscollege,tothepresidentofthecollege."Sincecollege-boundstudentsareincreasinglyconcernedaboutjobprospectsaftergraduation,FoleyCollegeshouldattempttoincreaseenrollmentbypromisingtofinditsstudentsjobsaftertheygraduate.ManyadministratorsfeelthatthisstrategyisawayforFoleytocompeteagainstlargerandmoreprestigiousschoolsandtoencouragestudentstobeginpreparingforcareersassoonastheyentercollege.Furthermore,astudentwhomustchooseacareerpathwithinhisorherfirstyearofcollegeandwhoisguaranteedajobaftergraduationismorelikelytosuccessfullycompletethecourseworkthatwillpreparehimorherforthefuture."TheconclusioninthisargumentisthatFoleyCollegecanexpecttoincreaseenrollmentbypromisingtofindjobsforstudentsaftertheirgraduation.Insupportofthisprediction,thearguerclaimsthatcollege-boundstudentsareincreasinglyconcernedaboutjobprospectsaftergraduation.Moreover,thearguerassumesthatthisattempthasthreebenefits:(1)toenableFoleytocompetewithmorefamousschools;(2)toencouragestudentstostartcareerpreparationearly;(3)toencouragestudentstocompletetheircoursework.Thisargumentisfraughtwithvague,oversimplifiedandunwarrantedassumptions.Onemajorassumptioninshortoflegitimacyisthecausalrelationshipclaimedbetweencollege-boundstudents'increasingconcernaboutjobprospectsaftergraduationandtheirexpectationontheuniversitytofindjobsforthem.Students'
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