房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)報(bào)告 -2023年上半年北京產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)市場(chǎng)回顧與展望（英文版）

1

-2.8%

Semi-annual|BusinessPark|Beijing|14July2023

Nosignificantdemandrecoveryin

Beijing'sBPmarket

Insights&recommendations

InH12023,therewasnosignificantrecoveryinBeijing'sBPmarket.Themainnewdemandwasconcentratedinrelativelycheapersubmarkets,whiledemandinthecoreareascontinuedtobesubdued.RentscontinuedtodropinH1,fallingby2.6%.InH12023,anewprojectlocatedinShangdienteredthemarket.ThevacancyratehasrisencontinuouslysinceH12022to17.9%,affectedbynewsupplyaswellastepiddemand.

Landlords:AsaconcentrationofnewprojectswillenterthemarketinH2,whichwilllikelyintensifycompetition,werecommendlandlordsadjustrentspromptlyandimprovetheirserviceofferingsinresponsetocapturethemarket’shighestqualitytenantsthatcantoleratehighercostperformance.

Tenants:Werecommendtenantsfocusonthequalityofnewsupplycomingonlineandtheincentivesthatcanbeofferedbythegovernmentandlandlords,takingadvantageofthisrentaladjustmentperiodtomaketimelyofficespaceupgradesandadjustments.

2023–25

H12023FullYear2023AnnualAverage

Demand

TheimpactoftheITcompaniesadjustingtheirfootprintswasmitigatedinH1,butoveralldemanddidnotshowasignificantrebound.

-231sqm

168,000sqm

260,000sqm

Supply

TheBeijingSatelliteFactoryTechnologyParkenteredthemarketinQ2,andaconcentrationofnewprojectsarescheduledtoenterthemarketinH2.

17,000sqm

1,248,000sqm

695,000sqm

HOH/H12023

YOY/

End2023

AnnualAverage

Growth2023-25/

End2025

Rent

Rentscontinuedtheirdecliningtrend.WeexpectrentswillremainunderpressureinH2duetotheinfluenceofnewsupply.

-2.6%

RMB122.0(psmpermonth)

-1.8%

RMB121.8RMB118.5

(psmpermonth)(psmpermonth)

Vacancy

Duetotepidnewdemand,thevacancyratecontinuedtoriseto17.9%.

1.4pp

17.9%

3.8pp

20.4%

1.4pp

20.7%

Source:Colliers

2

Beiqing

Road,

34%

Shangdi,33%

2023-25NewsupplybySubmarket

Fengtai,3%

Others,

30%

Majordemanddrivers,H12023

InternetTechnologyManufacturing

Healthcare

SubmarketOverview,H12023

Wangjing-jiuxianqiao

2023Q1

1,589

164.9

16.3%

2023Q2

1,584

162.3

17.9%

Sihui

2023Q1

2,661

165.4

16.9%

2023Q2

2,254

164.9

19.1%

BeijingEconomic-TechnologicalDevelopmentArea(BDA)

2023Q1

1,599

68.3

18.2%

2023Q2

1,599

67.6

19.5%

TotalStock(‘000sqm)Rent(RMBpersqmpermonth)VacancyRate(%)

2023H1:14,0332023H1:122.02023H1:17.9%

2023Q1

3,021

102.8

24.4%

2023Q2

3,021

99.8

24.8%

2023Q1

3,330

120.7

10.8%

2023Q2

3,285

120.4

10.7%

BeiqingRoad

2023Q1

2023Q2

Shangdi

14.7%

18.0%

Fengtai

116.1

114.2

931

931

Note:TheprojectsinShangdidatabasewasadjustedinQ2andthetotalmarketstockwasreduced.

3

H12023Review

Newdemandconcentratedinsubmarkets

relativelycheaper

?InH1,demandinthecoreareawaslight,withnoobvioussignsofarebound,andthemainnewdemandwasconcentratedintherelativelycheapersubmarkets.SubmarketsinthenorthernofthecitycontinuedtobeaffectedbythespaceadjustmentsofITcompanies,butthemagnitudehasnarrowedcomparedto2022.

?InQ2,anewprojectenteredtheShangdimarket.ThevacancyrateintheShangdimarketdidnotrisesignificantlyinH1,duetohealthypre-leasingofnewprojectsandaslowdowninthemagnitudeofspaceadjustmentsbyITcompanies.

?Overallrentscontinuedtheirdownwardtrend,withrentsremainingrelativelystableinQ1anddecreasingsharplyinQ2asdemanddidnotshowanysignificantsignsofrecovery.InQ2,rentsdecreased2.2%QOQtoRMB122.0(USD16.9)persquaremeterpermonth,down5.7%YOY.

MarketOutlook

ConcentrationofnewsupplybringsvacancypressuretothemarketinH2

?About1.23millionsquaremeters(13.24millionsquarefeet)ofnewprojectsarescheduledtoenterthemarketinH2,mainlyconcentratedinnorthernBeijingintheShangdiandBeiqingRoadsubmarkets.

?InH2,spaceadjustmentsofITcompaniesinthenorthernmarketshouldcometoanend,butatthesametime,themarketisgoingtofacepressurefromnewsupply.Weexpectthesupplypressuretocausevacancyratestocontinueclimbingtowardsyear-end,pressuringrents.

?InH2,thetrendoftenantsreducingcostswillcontinuetodominatethemarket.Werecommendthatlandlordsadjusttheirleasingstrategiesinadvance,improvingthequalityoftheirprojectsandservicestocapturequalitytenantswithhighercostperformance.

Newsupply,netabsorptionandVacancyrate,2018-2025

Supply

NetAbsorption

VacancyRate

Supply/Netabsorption(‘000sqm)

1,300

1,100

900

700

500

VacancyRate

30%25%20%15%

300

100

10%

5%

-100

-300

0%

Source:Colliers

Rents&VacancyRates,2018-2025

RentVacancyRate

Rent(RMB150

130

110

90

70

50

persqmpermonth)

VacancyRate25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source:Colliers

Forfurtherinformation,pleasecontact:

JudyLi

ManagingDirector|Beijing

+861085411003

Judy.Li@

MingLu

Director|Research|Beijing

+861085181633

Ming.Lu@

CassieGao

Manager|Research|Beijing

+861085411184

Cassie.Gao@

DanniZhao

SeniorAnalyst|Research|Beijing

+861085411187

Danni.Zhao@

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