中國產(chǎn)品出口競爭力外文翻譯文獻(xiàn)

中國產(chǎn)品出口競爭力外文翻譯文獻(xiàn)(文檔含英文原文和中文翻譯)ChinasCompetitivePerformance:AThreatToEastAsianManufacturedExports?ThereisgrowingconcerninSoutheastandEastAsiaaboutthecompetitivethreatposedbyChinaburgeoningexports,exacerbatedbyitsaccessiontotheWTO.Thethreatisnotconfinedtolabor-intensiveproductsbutspansthewholetechnologicalandskillrange.Atthesametime,Chinaisrapidlyraisingitsimportsfromtheregion,anditisnotclearwhetheritsburgeoningexportswilldamageitsneighbors.WeexaminethedimensionsofChinacompetitivethreatinthe1990s,benchmarkingcompetitiveperformancebytechnologyandmarket,andfindsthatmarketsharelossesaresofarmainlyinlowtechnologyproducts,withJapanbeingthemostvulnerablemarket.Weanalyzemarketsharechangesandhighlightproductgroupsthataredirectlyorindirectlyexposedtoacompetitivethreat.Weexamineintra-regionaltradeandfindthatChinaanditsneighborsareraisinghightechnologyexportsintandem:thenatureofthe-1-internationalproductionsystemsinvolvedleadtocomplementarilyratherthanconfrontation.Chinaisthusactingasanengineofexportgrowthforitsneighborsintermsofdirecttrade.However,thiswillchangeasChinamovesupthevaluechainandtakesontheactivitiesthathavedrivenEastAsianexportgrowth.IntroductionConcernaboutChinacompetitivethreatiswidespread(indevelopedeconomieslikeUSaswellasdevelopingoneslikeMexico),butisstrongestinEastandSoutheastAsia.Chinaburgeoningexportsackedbycheapandproductivelabor,alargestockoftechnicalmanpower,hugeanddiversifiedindustrialsector,attractivenesstoforeigninvestors,pragmaticuseofindustrialpolicy,and,now,freeraccesstoworldmarketsunderWTO–leadtoapocalypticvisionsofexportlosses.2Chinaismostthreateningtoneighborsthatrelyprimarilyonlowwagesfortheirexportadvantage.However,asitupgradesitsexportstructure,themoreadvancedeconomies(Singapore,HongKong,KoreaandTaiwan)alsofearfortheircompetitiveness.Thecurrenthollowingoutoftheirlow-endmanufacturingmaysoonextendtocomplexproduction,design,developmentandrelatedservices.DomesticmarketsarealsothreatenedbyChina,butsofarmostattentionseemstohavebeenonexports.OffsettingthisthreatarethepromiseofthegiantChinesemarket(WTOaccessionisonlyoneofseveralinitiativestoliberalizeregionaltrade)andthepotentialforcollaborationwithitinexportingtotherestoftheworld.TradewithintheEastAsianregionisflourishing.Chinaisagrowingimporterfromtheregionofnaturalresourcesthatitdoesnotpossess.Itisalsoraisingimportsofmanufacturedproducts.Itsadvancedneighborsaresellingitsophisticatedconsumerandproducergoods,andusingitasabaseforprocessingexportstothirdcountries.Themultinationalcompanies(MNCs)thatnowaccountforaroundhalfofChineseexports(andfarmoreofitshightechnologyexports,UNCTAD,2002)areincorporatingChinaintoproductionsystemsspanningtheregion(ragmentation’andegmentation’areusedtodescribethisphenomenon3),sopromotingconsiderableintra-firmtradewithotherregionalbases.Chinaownenterprisesarelikelytospecializewithrespecttoregionalcounterpartsandsoraiseintra-industrytradeindifferentiatedproducts.Perhaps-2-worryinglyforcompetitorsinotherregions,suchintegrationcanleadChinatocomplementregionalcompetitivenessasawhole,ratherthansubstituteitsexportsforthoseofitsneighbors.Itisdifficulttoassess,however,whethercomplementarilybetweenChinaandtheregionaleconomieswillfullyoffsetitscompetitivethreat.Thedynamicsandcomplexityoftheinteractionsmakeitimpossibletoquantifytheoutcome,eventopredictbroaddirections.ThebasicissueiswhetherChinahigherwageneighborscanmoveintomoreadvancedexportactivitiesorfunctionsrapidlyenoughtopermitcontinuedexportexpansion.Iftheycan,theycancontinuewithexport-ledgrowth.Iftheycannot,theywillsufferexportdecelerationandrashiftinspecializationtowardsprimaryproductsorslow-growingsegmentsofmanufacturedexports.Theoutcome,inotherwords,willdependontherelativegrowthoftechnologicalandothercapabilitiesinChineseandregionalenterprises,withtheformerhavingsuchadvantagesaslowerwages,largerscaleeconomies,greaterindustrialdepth,poolsoftechnicalskillandaproactivegovernment.However,asEastAsiancountriesdifferwidelyinthesefactors(Lall,2001),theyfacedifferentkindsandintensityofcompetitivethreat.Thenatureofthethreatdepends,moreover,ontheorganizationoftheproductionandmarketingsystem:independentlocalfirmsarelikelytocompetemoredirectlythanaffiliatesofthesameMNCspreadoverdifferentcountriesinanintegratedsystem.ThispaperdoesnottrytomeasureChinacompetitivethreatoritseffects,buttomaprelativeexportperformanceinthe1990sbytechnologyanddestinationandsoassesswherethethreatappearsmostintense.WefocusonmajorEastAsianexporters5andonexportstothirdmarkets,butwealsoanalysescomplementaritiesbetweenChinaandEastAsia,particularlyinelectronics,theregionlargestexportandtheonewhereMNCsystemsdominate.Asthe1990spredateChinaWTOaccession,wedonotgointotheimplicationsofthisaccession;however,theanalysisofcompetitivetrendshasimplicationsfortheevolutionoffuturetradebytheregionasliberalizationgrows.BackgroundonChineseexportperformanceChinesemanufacturedexportsgrewby16.9%perannumover1990-2000,comparedto6.4%fortheworld,12.0%foralldevelopingcountriesand10.3%-3-fortherestofEastAsia.Itsshareofworldmanufacturedexportsrosefrom1.7%to4.4%overthedecadeandcontinuedrisingrapidly.6Thus,by2002Chinaaccountedfor5.1%ofworldmerchandiseexports;itwasthenthefifthlargestexporter(afterUSA,Germany,JapanandFrance,andaheadoftheUK).Chinashareofdevelopingworldmanufacturedexportsrosefrom11%to20%overthe1990sandoftheEastAsianregionexcludingChinafrom18.7%to41.8%.Itsexportgains(seebelow)spannedtheentiretechnologicalspectrum,andweremostdynamicinthecomplexendoftherange,inproductsthathaverecentlydriventheexportgrowthoftherestofEastAsia.Thisexportsurgeislikelytobesustainedforsometimetocome.Chinahasparecapacitynthatitspercapitaexportsarestillrelativelysmall,7wagesaremuchlowerthaninitsmainneighborsandithaslargereservesofcheapanddisciplinedlabor(thoughdrawingitintoexportswillinvolvethecostofbuildinglinkswiththeinterior).8Moreimportantly,itsadvantagesarenotstatic(confinedtocheaplabor);theyareupgradingrapidly.Chinaisinvestingheavilyintechnologyandadvancedskills;forexample,theshareoftherelevantagegroupenrolledintertiaryeducationrosefrom9percentin1997to13percentin2000(UNESCOwebsite).Itisexploitingthescaleofferedbyitsgiantmarkettobecomecompetitiveincapital-intensiveactivitiesbeyondthereachofmanyneighbors.Itisusingitsdiverseindustrialbasetodeepenlocalcontent.Itisdrawinginexport-orientedFDIatanimpressiverate,usingitsmarketattractionstoinduceinvestorstoraiselocalR&Dandlinkages;tillnowithasbeenabletoimposeperformancerequirementsofthetypesoontobebannedunderWTOrules.WTOaccessionmayconstrainChinaabilitytouseindustrialpolicy(Nolan,2001)butitwillalsoopenupnewexportopportunities,particularlyintextilesandgarments.9Accessionmayalsoenhanceitsdomesticcompetitiveness:itwillimprovetheinvestmentclimateforFDI,makeimportedinputscheaper(forenterprisesoutsidespecialexportregimes)andinducefasterrestructuringofdomesticenterprises(Ianchovichinaetal,2003,andLemoyneandUnal-Kesenci,2002).Marketsharechangesinmajordevelopedcountrymarkets-4-WeanalyzemarketsharesofChinaanditsneighborsinthreemajormarkets:Japan,theUSandWestEurope,accordingtotechnologycategories(AnnexTable1).Intermsofvalue,themostimportantmarketforChinain2000istheUS($49billion),followedbyJapan($36billion)andWestEurope($38billion).However,therestoftheworldisalmostaslargeadestinationforChineseexportsasthesetogether($106billionin2000)andwithinthistherestofEastAsiaislargerthananymajorOECDmarketbyitself($74.6billion).Thecompetitivepositionofeachcountrycanbeanalyzedintermsofthemarketsharein1990and2000andthechangeoverthedecade.Theannextableshowsthefollowing:Totalmanufacturedexports:ChinadoesbestinJapan,followedatsomedistancebytheUS.Incommonwithmostneighbors,itsmarketsharegainisweakestinWestEurope.KorealosesmarketsharesinbothJapanandUS,whileTaiwanlosesonlyintheUS.HongKonglosesmarketsharesinallmarkets,particularlyintheUSandJapan.LikeTaiwan,SingaporelosesonlyintheUS.ThenewTigersgainshareinallmarkets.WiththeexceptionofIndonesia,witharathertepidperformance,theothersallgainmostshareintheJapanesemarket.Resourcebasedproducts:Chinaagainleadstheregionintermsofmarketshareincreases,withapatternsimilartothatfortotalexports.However,KoreahasalargegaininJapan,incontrasttoTaiwanandSingapore,whichloseshares;thelattertwoalsoloseintheUS.ThailandisabiggainerinJapanwhileIndonesiaandthePhilippinesloseoutintheUS.Lowtechnologyproducts:ChinamassivemarketsharegainsareagainconcentratedinJapan.ThefourmatureTigersgenerallysufferlossesinmarketshare,butSingaporeseesanincreaseinJapanesemarketshare.ThebestoverallperformanceamongthenewTigersisbyIndonesia.Mediumtechnologyproducts:WhiletheChinesepatternofsuccessrecurs,thenewTigersmakesignificantgainsinJapanandKoreaincursasignificantloss.TaiwanandSingaporesufferlossesintheUSmarket.Hightechnologyexports:TaiwanagaindivergesfromKoreainitsperformanceinJapan,theformershowingthesecondlargestgaininthegroup(afterChina)andthelatterthelargestloss.IntheUSmarket,thesituationisreversed,withSingaporejoining-5-Taiwaninlosingmarketshares.AmongthenewTigers,MalaysiaandthePhilippinesarethe big gainersinJapan,buttheothertwoalsobenefitsignificantly.ThePhilippinesisthesecondlargestwinnerinthegroupintheUSmarket.Insum,ChinamainmarketsharegainsinthedevelopedworldareconcentratedinJapan(thoughtheUSaccountsforalargerdollarvalueofexportgrowth).ThisisalsotrueofitsneighborswiththeexceptionsofKoreaandIndonesia(HongKongwasanall-roundloser).Totheextentthatwecaninterpretmarket share changes to be causally related toChinaexportsurge,itwouldseemthatthematureTigerssufferedthemostfromChinesecompetition.Thelargestsuchlossisinlowtechnologyproducts,whichistobeexpected,butthisnottakeintoaccountthegrowthofLTexportsbyKoreaandTaiwantoChina.Therelativelylowgainsbythelower-incomenewTigersinLTmayalsoreflecttheimpactofChinesecompetitionithouttheoffsettingincreaseinexportsofintermediatestoChina.ConclusionsChinaexportsurgehasraisedgraveconcernsintheregion.Whilesomeoftheapocalypticpredictionsmayhavebeenoverdone,itiscertainlypossiblethatrapidexportgrowthbysuchamassiveentrantwilladverselyaffectsexportgrowthinitsneighbors.Asthisanalysisshows,however,theoutcomeiscomplex.Forastart,theriseinChinaexportsismatchedbythatinitsimports–withintheregionitsimportgrowthoutpacesitsexportgrowth.Withappropriaterestructuringofactivitiestomatchnewcompetitiveneeds,itsneighborsshouldbeabletomaintainhighratesofexportgrowth.TherearetwomaindriversofregionalexportstoChina.Thefirstistomeetitsburgeoningdemandforimportedproducts:primaryproductsandresource-basedmanufacturesthatitcannotproducecapitalgoodsandintermediatesfordomestic-orientedproductionandmoresophisticatedconsumergoodsthanitsindustrycancurrentlyprovide.Thesecondistomeettheneedsofitsexportindustries.Thishastwocomponents:rocessingctivityinspecialeconomiczonesthatuseimportedinputsforexportactivities,andotherexportersthatalsoneedimports.Processingactivityisincreasinglyorganizedaspartofintegratedproductionsystems,particularlyitshightechnologysegments,though-6-somedomesticorientedindustriesarealsobeingpluggedintothissystemastheyrealizescaleandlearningeconomiesandbecomegloballycompetitive.Bothdriversarelikelytocontinueintotheforeseeablefuture,thoughtheircompositionwillchangeasChineseandregionalcapabilitiesdevelop.中國競爭力的表現(xiàn)：是對東亞制成品出口的威脅嗎？越來越多的東南亞和東亞地區(qū)關(guān)注中國出口的迅速增長所帶來的競爭威脅，中國加入后，更加劇了這種情況。這種威脅并不局限于勞動密集型產(chǎn)品，而是跨越整個技術(shù)和技能范圍的產(chǎn)品，同時，中國正在迅速提高其在東南亞和東亞的進(jìn)口，目前尚不清楚其是否其蓬勃發(fā)展的出口將是否損害其鄰國的利益，本文研究了中國20世紀(jì)90年代中國競爭威脅的大小場競爭力表現(xiàn)的基準(zhǔn)是技術(shù)和市場份額究發(fā)現(xiàn)，-7-發(fā)現(xiàn)市場份額的損失迄今為止主要在低技術(shù)產(chǎn)品，日本是其最脆弱的市場。我們分析了市場份額的變化，直接或間接地突出了產(chǎn)品集群的競爭威脅。區(qū)域內(nèi)貿(mào)易的研究表明，中國和其鄰國同步提高了高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的出口，參與國際生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的性質(zhì)導(dǎo)致的是互補(bǔ)性，而不是對抗。因此，在直接貿(mào)易條件下，中國在出口增長方面是其鄰國的領(lǐng)頭人，但是，這將改變中國價(jià)值鏈的移動，帶動?xùn)|亞出口的迅速增長，引言中國競爭威脅論的擔(dān)心是普遍存在的，（像發(fā)達(dá)國家中的美國和發(fā)展中國家的墨西哥等）作為東亞和南亞最大的出口國，中國的新興出口憑借廉價(jià)的勞動生產(chǎn)力，大量的人力技術(shù)存量，巨大的和多元化的工業(yè)部門，吸引外國投資，以及優(yōu)惠的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策，如今，加入后，中國更加自由的進(jìn)入國際市場，導(dǎo)致了出口損失末日的嚴(yán)重觀點(diǎn)。中國依靠低工資的出口優(yōu)勢造成了對鄰國的最大威脅。中國的出口結(jié)構(gòu)升級以后，更多的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體（新加坡，香港，南韓和臺灣）也會擔(dān)憂其強(qiáng)大的競爭力，當(dāng)前其低端工業(yè)制成的漏洞將很快由其他復(fù)雜生產(chǎn)、設(shè)計(jì)和發(fā)展的產(chǎn)品以及相關(guān)的服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)所填充。各個國家的國內(nèi)市場也受到中國的威脅，但目前為止，主要關(guān)注的還是在出口方面。弱化這種威脅論的是中國政府的承諾(加入只是區(qū)域貿(mào)易自由化的若干舉措之一)，和出口到世界各地的潛在合作。中國與東亞地區(qū)的貿(mào)易正在蓬勃發(fā)展，在這些地區(qū)進(jìn)口其不具備自然資源的速度在快速-8-增長。工業(yè)制成品的進(jìn)口也在上升，發(fā)達(dá)的鄰國向其銷售消費(fèi)制成品和生產(chǎn)制成品利用其作為向第三國產(chǎn)品出口的加工基地國公跨國公司），現(xiàn)在占到中國出口的一半（目前主要是高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的出口，2002）,不斷融入中國生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的方方面面，（用'分裂'和'分割'是用來描述這種現(xiàn)象）,更好地促進(jìn)了與其他區(qū)域企業(yè)之間的貿(mào)易。中國的國有企業(yè)有可能專業(yè)化同業(yè)生產(chǎn)，以此提高同業(yè)差異化產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易。與其擔(dān)心在其他地區(qū)的競爭對手，這種整合反而會導(dǎo)致中國以配合整個區(qū)域的競爭力，而不是替代其鄰國的出口。但是，中國和各區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)體的互補(bǔ)性是否能完全抵消其競爭威脅，這是難以估計(jì)的。動態(tài)性和復(fù)雜性的相互作用使其無法量化這個結(jié)果，我們甚至可以預(yù)知大方向。這里的基本問題是，中國高工資的鄰國是否帶來更先進(jìn)的技術(shù)活動，而且能夠迅地速繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大出口額。如果能，那么可以繼續(xù)出口引致的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，否則他們將受到出口減速和/或在對初級產(chǎn)品或工業(yè)制成品出口增長緩慢的部分進(jìn)行專業(yè)化轉(zhuǎn)變。換言之，產(chǎn)出將取決于技術(shù)和能力，中國和其他地區(qū)企業(yè)的相對增長，前者優(yōu)勢有工資較低，規(guī)模效益較大，產(chǎn)業(yè)深度更廣，技術(shù)技能集群更大，以及一個積極的政府。然而，東亞國家在這些因素方面的差異很大，(Lall,2001),他們面對著不同種類和密集度的競爭威脅。威脅的性質(zhì)更多地體現(xiàn)在產(chǎn)品組織和營銷系統(tǒng)，獨(dú)立的當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)可能比一體化系統(tǒng)中遍布不同國家的相同跨國公司分支機(jī)構(gòu)的競爭更加直接。-9-本文并不試圖衡量中國的競爭威脅或其影響力是衡量上世紀(jì)90年代由技術(shù)和目的評估找出相關(guān)產(chǎn)品出口競爭威脅最激烈的地方們專注于東亞的主要出口國和第三市場的出口，我們還分析了中國和東亞地區(qū)之間的互補(bǔ)性，特別是在電子產(chǎn)品方面，該地區(qū)是最大的出口方，而且跨國公司系統(tǒng)占主導(dǎo)地位。早在中國未進(jìn)入的90年代，我們沒有阻止其進(jìn)入的影響力爭力趨勢的研究表明其對區(qū)域自由化增長引起的未來貿(mào)易變革是有影響的。中國出口結(jié)構(gòu)表現(xiàn)的背景中國工業(yè)制成品年出口增長率超過1990-2000的16.9超出世界平均水平的6.4超過其余東亞發(fā)展中國家的10.3近幾年中國的國際工業(yè)制成品的份額從1.7升到4.4并且在迅速增長，因此，到2002年中國占世界商品出口的5.1％; 是第五大出口國（僅次于美國，德國，日本和法國，并領(lǐng)先于英國），中國在發(fā)展中國家的工業(yè)制成品出口份額從20世紀(jì)90年代的11％上升到20％，東亞地區(qū)除中國以外，從18.7％上升到41.8％。中國出口的增長跨越了整個技術(shù)領(lǐng)域，在復(fù)雜產(chǎn)品以及目前對其余東亞國家的出口增長起主導(dǎo)作用的產(chǎn)品范圍內(nèi)最具影響。出口激增可能需要一段時間來實(shí)現(xiàn)，中國的“閑置能力”導(dǎo)致人均資本出口額仍舊相對較小，工資比主要鄰國要低，廉價(jià)的規(guī)范化的勞動量儲存較大(雖然它們拉動了出口，但是帶來了建立內(nèi)部聯(lián)動機(jī)制的成-10-本)，最重要的是，這種優(yōu)勢不是靜態(tài)的（限于廉價(jià)勞動力），是迅速升級的，中國正在加大技術(shù)和先進(jìn)的技能的投資;例如，各年齡段的專業(yè)教育比例從1997年的9升到2000年的13bsite).中國利用其巨大的規(guī)模產(chǎn)出增加市場占有量，其資本密集型產(chǎn)品的競爭力超出了許多鄰近國家，利用其多元化的工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，以加