菲沙研究所-新冠肺炎對加拿大和各省的經(jīng)濟影響英

TheEconomicandFiscalImpactofCOVIDinCanadaTheEconomicImpactofCOVIDExecutiveSummary/iIntroduction/1ThePandemicinCanada/3EconomicImpactsofthePandemic/10OverallEconomicGrowth/12EmploymentandUnemployment/19RetailandAutomobileSales/25InflationandHousing/30InternationalTravel/36Conclusion/39References/41Abouttheauthor/47Acknowledgments/48PublishingInformation/49SupportingtheFraserInstitute/50Purpose,Funding,andIndependence/50AbouttheFraserInstitute/51EditorialAdvisoryBoard/52DiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?iTheinternationaleconomicandfiscaldisruptionandimpactofthepandemichasbeenenormous.Canadaanditsprovinceswerenotimmunefromtheeconomicimpactofthepandemic.AccordingtotheIMF,Canadain2020sawitsestimatedrealGDPshrink5.2%withrevisedprojectionsofeconomicgrowthnowat4.6%in2021,3.9%in2022and2.8%in2023.TheperiodspanningJanuary2020toapproximatelyJanuary2022sawthemostprecipitousfallineconomicactivitysincetheGreatDepression,raisingtheriskofdeflation,arapidrebound,andthenmoregradualeconomicprogressthatextendedintoearly2022.Sincethen,wehavemovedintoaperiodofboommarkedbyexcessdemand,thelowestunemploymentrateinnearlyfivedecades,inflation,andnowrisinginterestrates.Thefirstwaveofthepandemichadthemostsevereeconomicimpactgivenitsnoveltyandtheuncertaintyaboutitsconsequencesandspread,andassortedmeasurestocon-nthevirusintheabsenceofeithervaccinesorimmunityTherewasadropofinrealGDPinthesecondquarteroffollowedbyreboundsofandinthethirdandfourthquartersof2020andof1%inthefirstquarterof2021.However,therewaselyinthesecondquarterofasaresultofanotherwaveofCOVID-19,butvaccinerolloutduringthisperiodmitigatedthedrop.Recoverycommencedinthethirdquarterof2021,whenrealGDPfinallysurpassedthelevelsetinthefirstquarterof2020.But,bythefourthquarterof2021,realGDPwasonly2%higherthanithadbeentwoyearsearlier,asignofsubstantialforegoneoutput.houghsomeweatheredthestormbetterthanothersatcertainpointsduringthepandemic,izeoftheCOVIDsurgeineachprovinceandtheeconomiceffectsoftherestrictionsimposed.Forexample,in2020thehardesthiteconomywasAlbertawithanestimated8%realGDPdropfollowedbyQuebecandNewfoundland&Labrador,eachfallingbyover5%,thenOntarioatabout5%.TheAtlanticprovincesandBritishColumbia,ontheotherhand,werehitlesshardwithrealGDPdropsofbetween3%and4%.ThesubsequentestimatedrealGDPreboundin2021wasgreatestinQuebec,BritishColumbia,andOntarioatover6%,respectively,followedbyAlberta,Saskatchewan,andNewBrunswickatover5%.ThecorrelationsbetweeninfectionsanddeathsfromCOVID-19andGDPandemploy-mentperformancedonotappearasimportantasthatbetweenthelengthandintensityofrestrictionsandpoorereconomicperformance—restrictionswhichintheendii?StormwithoutEnd?DiMatteoadoptedmainlytoconservescarcehospitalcapacity.OntarioandQuebec,forexample,implementedsomeofthemoststringentpandemicresponses,imposinglockdownsandotherrestrictions.Ontariowashardhitbydropsinretailsales,particularlyduringthesecondandthirdpandemicwaves.Alberta,ontheotherhand,institutedfewerrestric-growthofthetenprovinces.ThelargestdropinemploymentoccurredinQuebecatapproximately19%byAprilof2020.NextintermsofseverityofthedropinemploymentwasNovaScotia(16.0%),IslandOntarioandNewfoundlandLabradorweremid-rankedatbetween14.7%and14.5%.Recoveryinemploymentthenbegan,thoughtherewereebbsandflowsinthesreturningfromabroadplungedfrom2.84millionto168,607betweenMarchandAprilmtheUnitedStatesfellfrom1.90millionto134,522—a93%decrease.Canadianaircarrierstransported28.4millionpassengersin2020,lessthanonethird(30.2%)ofthe94.1millionpassengerscarriedin2019.Aswell,operatingrevenueofCanadianaircarriersin2020felltolessthanhalfofthefigurereportedin2019.learwhetherthefederalandprovincialgovernmentshavelearnedanyclearlessonsabouthowtodealwitheitheraresurgenceofCOVID-19oranewpandemicwhileminimizingdisruptiontotheeconomy.Atthesametime,theexperienceofthepandemicappearstohaveunderscoredtheultimateresilienceandadaptabilityoffirms,workers,andconsumersintheCanadianeconomyastheyadaptedtothechallengesofaneweconomicDiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?1IntroductionThelasttwoyearsinCanadaandinternationallyhavebeendominatedbytheseeminglyendlessstormoftheCOVID-19pandemicanditsimpactsonhealth,mortality,publicfinances,andtheeconomy.1Asofmid-March2022,thenumberofCOVID-19casesaroundtheworldwasestimatedat475millionwith6.1milliondeaths(Worldometer,overdeaths.Indeed,thesemaybeunderestimatesgiventherecentstatementbytheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)thatthetruetoll—includingwhatitdefinesasexcessertomilliondeathsWHOTheeconomicandfiscaldisruptionandimpactofthepandemichasbeenenormous.Duringtheinitialstagesofthepandemic,therewasuncertaintyastowhatpatterneco-formancemighttakeEarlyoninaccordingtotheWorldBanksGlobalcedeconomiesshrinkingby4.6%andtheemerginganddevelopingeconomiescontract-ingby1.7%(WorldBank,2022).However,withtherolloutofvaccinesandincreasedectivelytreattheviruseconomiesdidreboundatandforHowever,thishasbeenaccompaniedbycontinuedsupply-chaindisruptions,inflation,andlargepublic-sectordeficits.Canadaanditsprovinceswerenotimmunefromtheeconomicimpactofthepandemic.AccordingtotheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),Canadain2020sawitsestimatedGDPshrinkwithgrowthprojectedtobeinandinIMF2022a).InthewakeoftheRussia-UkraineWar,theIMF’sApril2022updateofWorldviewsseeDiMatteoa2.AccordingtotheWHO,excessdeathsorexcessmortalityisthedifferencebetweenthenumberofdeathsthathaveoccurredandthenumberthatwouldbeexpectedintheabsenceofthepandemicbasedludesdeathsassociatedwithCOVIDdirectlyduetothedisease)orindirectly(duetothepandemic’simpactonhealthsystemsandsociety).3.ThatiswhethertherewouldbeaV-shapedorU-shapedrecoverypatterntoemploymentandoutput.ItwouldappeartohavebeenmoreofaKpattern,withdivergingpatternsforsectorsandworkers(Dalton,Groen,Lowenstein,Piccone,andPolikova,2021).4.ItshouldbenotedthatinthewakeoftheRussia-UkraineWartheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)centlydowngradeditsforecastforglobalgrowthTheAprilupdatenowprojectsglobalgrowthat3.6%in2022and2023(IMF,2022b).DiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?3ThetimelineoftheCOVID-19pandemicstartswiththereportsofundiagnosedpneu-byconfirmationofhuman‐to‐humantransmissioninlateJanuary2020andtheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)declaringaglobalhealthemergencyonJanuary30.BythemiddleofFebruary2020,theviruswasspreadingrapidlyaroundtheworld,withaglobalshutdowninMarchasthepandemicsurgedandcasesoverwhelmedhospitalsinmanycountries.InCanada,boththefederalandprovincialgovernmentsrespondedbyinstitutingemergencymeasuresconsistingoflockdownsandassortedrestrictionstocontrolspreadofthevirusintheabsenceofvaccinesaswellasprogramsoffinancialassistancetohelpworkersandbusinessescopewiththehealthandeconomicconse-quences.Ultimately,thepandemicwasbroughtundercontrolthroughimmunizationprogramsaseffectivevaccinesbecameavailable.5ThecourseanddistributionofpandemiccasesinCanadaandtheprovincesisillustratedinfigures1Ato1C.ThestartofthepandemicinCanadabeginswiththefirstcasesinlateJanuaryof2020andthepandemicthenproceedsinfivewavesbasedonthevirusvariantdominatingeachsucceedingwave(figure1A):AlphapeakinginAprilof2020,BetapeakinginDecemberof2020,GammapeakinginAprilof2021,DeltapeakinginSeptemberof2021,andOmicron,whichcontinuedinwinterof2022andisstillongoing.AsoftheendofJanuary2022,Canadahadofficiallyseen3,053,637COVID-19cases.Figure1Bprovidesthemonthlycasesforeachprovince.Notethattheprovincialwavepatternsparallelthenationaltotals.OntariosawthemostcasesintotalbyJanuary2022at1,033,294cases,followedbyQuebecat861,891,andthenAlbertaat493,973.ributionbyprovinceduringthepandemicthelargestproportionofat28%,Albertaat16%ofcases,BritishColumbiaat11%,andthenSaskatchewanandManitobaatapproximately4%each.ThefourAtlanticprovincestogetheraccountedfor3%ofallcases.BasedonCanada’spopulationdistribution,Quebec,Alberta,andSaskatchewanwereaffectedproportionatelymorebyCOVID-19cases,giventheirnationalpopulationsharesofand%,respectively,whileOntario(39%)andAtlanticCanada(6%)wereaffectedproportionatelyless.5.AdetailedtimelineoftheCOVID-19emergencyresponsesisprovidedbyMcCarthyTetrault(2022).004?StormwithoutEnd?DiMatteo2022PENSMBSKABBCDiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?50.95%Figures1Dto1Fdocumentthemortalityimpactofthepandemic.FromJanuary2020athsfromCOVIDQuebecsawthemostdeathsat13,223,followedbyOntarioat11,444,andthenAlbertaandBritishColumbiaat3,566and2,616,respectively.Figure1Dshowsthattotaldeathswerehighestduringthefirstwave;subsequentwaveshaveseenfewerdeathslargelybecauseofimprove-mentsintreatmentandmoreimportantlythedisseminationofvaccines.Intermsoftheprovincialdistributionofdeaths,exceptforQuebecandOntario,theprovinceshaddeathsthatalignedwiththeirnationalpopulationshares.With34%ofCanada’sCOVID-19deaths,OntariohadaproportionofdeathsbelowitspopulationsharewhileQuebecwasanoutlierwith39%ofCanada’sdeathsbutonly23%ofthepopulationeEItshouldbenotedthattotaldeathsspikedupduringthefifthOmicronwavelargelybecauseofthehightransmissibilityofthevariantandthelargesurgeincases.However,whendeathsareconsideredrelativetothetotalcases,itisevidentfromthecrudecasefatalityrate(figure1F)thatmortalityfromCOVID-19droppeddramaticallyafterthefirst6?StormwithoutEnd?DiMatteoPENSMBSKABBCNL0.03%0.43%NB0.70%tagetageDiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?7populationsizeaswellasinthenumberofcasesitisusefultostandardizebasedonpopulationsothatinterprovincialcomparisonscanbemadesesperofpopulationfortheentireperiodfromJanuary2020toJanuary2022.Canadaasawholesaw8,013casesperpopulationAcrosstheprovinces,theincidencerangedfromahighof&Labrador.ThefourAtlanticprovinceshadthelowesttotalincidencerates,followedbyBritishColumbiaandOntario.QuebecandthePrairiesgenerallysawthehighestincidencerates.Inthecaseofdeaths,thepatternsforbothdeathsper100,000population(figure2B)anddeathsper100,000COVID-19cases(figure2C)werequitesimilar.WhileQuebecdidnothavethehighestincidenceintermsofcasesper100,000population,ithadthemostdeathsper100,000populationandthusthehighestcasefatalityrate.Ingeneral,aCanadianresidentwasmostlikelytodieofCOVID-19inQuebecandManitobaandleastlikelytodieofitinNewfoundland&Labrador,PrinceEdwardIsland,andNovaScotia.WhileNewBrunswickhadrelativelyfewdeathsper100,000population,ithadanoverallcasefatalityratesimilartoSaskatchewan,Alberta,andBritishC8?StormwithoutEnd?DiMatteoDiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?9Thegeneraleffectsofthepandemicgloballyhavebeentodisrupthealthandsocialsys-temsaswellastheeconomy.Inthisregard,theimpactofthepandemiconCanadaanditsprovincesshouldbesimilarbut,giventheregionalvariationsinthedemographicsandothercharacteristicsacrossthecountry,onemightalsoexpectdifferencesintheimpactsupontheeconomyandthehealthsystem.Indeed,otherstudieshavenotedsuchjurisdictionalandregionalvariations.Forexample,inSpain,acountrythathasdevolvedhealthcareontoregions,onestudyofthefirstwaveofthepandemicfoundthat90%ofthevariationofthepandemic’simpactwasattributabletodifferencesbetweenandwithinregionsasaresultofdevolvedhealthauthorityaswellaspopulationdensityandagedistribution(Gutiérrez,Inguanzo,andOrbe,2021).Differencesinhealthstatus,practiceandcapacitywouldevenspreadintoeconomicimpactsasnotedfortheUnitedStatesbyastudyontheemploymentimpactsofthepandemicbyeconomicregionandsector(Foerster,Garvey,andSarte,2021).10?StormwithoutEnd?DiMatteoTheCOVID-19pandemicandtheassortedpublicmeasuresimplementedtoslowthevirussspreadparticularlyduringtheearlywaveintheabsenceofvaccinesresultedinamajoreconomiccontractioninthespringof2020,notonlyinCanadabutaroundtheworldwithdisparatesectoraleffects.6Whilethiswasfollowedbyaperiodofrecovery,surgesandthelockdownsandrestrictionsusedtocurbtheirspreadsawcontinueddisruptiveeffectsonemploymentandincomeaswellasonpublicfinances.7InthecaseofCanada,differencesinthestringencyofmandatedpublic-healthmeasuresintheprovinceswouldhaveinevitablybeenafactorbehindsomeofthedifferentialeco-nomiceffectsofthepandemicacrossthecountry.eCanadianEconomicRecoveryTrackerCERTofExportDevelopmentbusinessesandgovernmentsappeartohaveadjustedtheiroperationswitheachsucces-sivewaveandbyMarchof2020achievedpre-pandemiclevelsofactivity(EDC,2022).Disruptionsanddropsinactivitywerethemostsevereearlyinthepandemicgiventheuncertaintyoverthevirusanditslethality.Later,restrictionstoprotectthehealth-carethenoveltyofthecoronavirus,thescarcityofinitialinformationandsubsequentuncer-tainty,shortagesofprotectiveequipment,andtheeasyandrapidtransmissionofthevirus.Secondwasdisruptionofbothinternationalanddomesticsupplychainsamidwidespreadgovernment‐imposedmeasurestocontrolinfectionsuchastravelrestric-tionsandstay‐at‐homeordersandtheaccompanyingdisruptionofinterdependentandintegratedtradeandproductionchains,aswellaslimitsonthepopulation’smobility.Thirdwastherealitythat,unlikepastpandemicswheneconomicproductionwasmoregoodsintensive,theproductionandconsumptionpatternscharacterizingmodern6.TheliteratureontheeconomiceffectsofthepandemicbothonentireeconomiesandspecificsectorsisplesseeAltigetalAshrafBoisseyandRungcharoenkitkul7.Foranoverviewoftheimpactofthepandemicgloballyduringitsfirstyear,seeDiMatteo,2021a.arnfromSARSseeDiMDiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?11developedeconomiesaredominatedbyservices,includingservicesthatwereparticu-larlypronetoCOVID-relateddisruptions,suchasrestaurants,accommodation,retail,andtravel.Atthesametime,increasingdigitizationoftheworkplaceandbusinessoper-ationsallowedformanyservicestobehandledremotelyandtheshiftofemploymenttohomeactivityisafeaturethatisexpectedtopersisttosomedegreeoncethevirushasdisappeared,particularlyforworkerswithskillsthatenablethemtoworkremotely9muchtothechagrinofsomeurbanmayorswithsubstantialdowntowns.10Finally,thereistheunprecedentedsizeofthefiscalandeconomicresponsetothepan-demicbygovernment,onascalethatdwarfsexperiencewithpastpandemics.ThislastfeaturewasintendedtosupportthemedicalresponsetoCOVID-19throughthepro-visionofaddedhealthresourcesaswellastostabilizeemploymentandincomeintheeconomyamidtheeconomicdisruptionstemmingfromthevirusandaggressivepublic-healthmitigationmeasures.Thelegacyoftheoutsizedgovernmentfiscalresponsein2020/21includessignificantlyhigherlevelsofpublicdebtinmanyjurisdictionsalongwithhighandrisinginflation(Ebrahimy,Igan,andPeria,2020).Thefollowingsectionswillprovidemoredetailabouttheeconomicimpactsofthepan-demiconCanadaandtheprovincesusingafewselectkeyindicators.Wherepossible,somecorrelationswillbedrawn,notablywithrespecttotheintensityofthepandemicandpandemicresponseandtheireffectsonassortedaspectsofeconomicperformance.9.AreportfromtheMcKinseyGlobalInstitutenoted:“Hybridmodelsofremoteworkarelikelytoper-sistinthewakeofthepandemic,mostlyforahighlyeducated,well-paidminorityoftheworkforce(Lund,Madgavkar,Manyika,andSmit,2020).Thesetypesofjobswouldincludeknowledge-economyintensiveoccupationsrequiringcomputerinteraction,thinkingcreatively,processingandanalyzingdata,andinfor-mationandadministrativeandorganizationalactivities.10.Forexample,theMayorofOttawahasexhortedthefederalgovernmenttobringworkersdowntowntobolsterlocalbusinesses(Osman,2022).12?StormwithoutEnd?DiMatteoctonCanadaseconomicoutputgivenitsnovelty,uncertaintyaboutitsconsequencesandspread,andassortedmeas-urestocontainthevirusintheabsenceofeithervaccinesorimmunity.Inthespringof2020,thepandemicquicklyshutdownlargeswathesoftheeconomy.Theeconomysubsequentlywentontorecovermorerapidlythanexpectedasfirms,employees,andconsumersadaptedtothenewrealitiesofpandemiclife.Subsequentwavesofthepan-demicdidnotresultinGDPcontractionsasseriousasthoseseenduringthefirstwave.Nevertheless,therecoveryoftheCanadianeconomystartedrobustlyandthenslowedhasthesurgeinlumberpricesaswellasthesurgeinrealestateactivitythatsawhousingpricesdrivenupdramatically.Figure3A.1providesannualizedquarterlyrealGDP(seasonallyadjusted)forCanadaandfourthquartersof2020andthefirstquarterof2021.Therewas,however,anotherQQQDiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?13QQQdeclineinoutputofapproximately1%inthesecondquarterof2021becauseofanotherwaveofCOVID-19,butvaccinerolloutduringthisperiodmitigatedthedrop.Recoverylsetinthefirstquarterof2020.Bythefourthquarterof2021,realGDPwasabout2%higherrstomaterialasubstantialamountofeconomicgrowthwasforegoneduringthepandemic.WhenpreliminaryannualrealGDPnumbersfromRBCEconomics(HogueandFreestone,2021)arecombinedwithestimatesfromStatisticsCanadafortheprovinces,theresultshowsthatallprovinceswerehitbylargeGDPdownturnsin2020butwithvariationamongthemfigureBHardesthitwasAlbertawithanestimated8%realGDPdropfollowedbyQuebecandNewfoundland&Labrador,eachfallingbyover5%,thenOntarioatabout5%.TheAtlanticprovincesandBritishColumbia,ontheotherhand,werehitlesshardwithrealGDPdropsofbetween3%and4%.Thesub-sequentestimatedrealGDPreboundin2021wasgreatestinQuebec,BritishColumbia,andOntarioatover6%,respectively,followedbyAlberta,Saskatchewan,andNewBrunswickatover5%.14?StormwithoutEnd?DiMatteoNFPENSNBQEONMBSKABBCInassessingtheimpactofthepandemiconrealGDPgrowth,afirstattemptisprovidedbyfigure3C,whichplotstheannualgrowthrateofrealGDPforeachprovinceagainstThereisadivergenceinperformancebetweenthetwoyearswiththeobservationsfor2021allshowinggrowthandaslightlypositiverelationshipbetweenCOVID-19deathsandrealGDPgrowthandgrowthratesfor2020showingnegativegrowthandaslightlynegativerelationshipbetweenthetwovariables.Takentogether,theoverallrelation-shipbetweendeathsandrealGDPgrowthexhibitsapositivelineartrend.Thissuggeststhatmortalityfromthepandemicwasnotanimportantfactorinthecontractionofrealeconomicactivitythatoccurredduringthepandemic.Ofcourse,therelationshipbetweentheimpactofthepandemicandrealGDPper-formanceiscomplexandnotnecessarilysimplyafunctionofmortality,giventherela-tivelylowmortalityoftheCOVID-19pandemicbyhistoricalstandards(forexample,theSpanishfluof1918/19).11Oneshouldalsoconsidertheeconomicperformancein11.WhileunprecedentedintheperiodafterWorldWarII,theCOVID‐19pandemicwasnottheBlackortheSpanishFlu,whichisestimatedtohavekilledanywherefrom20to100millionpeople.Moreover,DiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?1520406080100jurisdictionspriortothepandemic.Inthecaseofthethreeprovinceswiththemostenergy-intensiveprovincialeconomies—Alberta,Saskatchewan,andNewfoundland&Labrador—thetwoyearspriortothepandemicsawmixedeconomicgrowthasaresultoflowenergyprices.Forexample,in2018and2019,AlbertapostedrealGDPgrowthratesofandSaskatchewansgrowthwasandandgrowthinNewfoundland&Labradorwas?3.5%and4.0%.ThisillustratestheimportanceofglobalandNorthAmericanenergypricestooveralleconomicgrowthinCanada’smainenergy-producingprovinces.Thepandemic’seffectsontheeconomywereinfluencedbytherestrictionsandlock-twowaveswheneffectiveCOVID-19treatmentsandvaccineswerenotavailableinCanada.Withthedevelop-mentanddisseminationofvaccinesinlate2020andearly2021,themoreserioushealtheffectsoftheviruswerepartiallyblunted,thoughhospitalizationswerestillanimport-antissueespeciallyduringthefifthwavecausedbythehighlytransmissibleOmicronvariant,whichsawthesheernumberoftotalcasesandhospitalizationsexceedtheunlikepastpandemics,themortalityandmorbidityeffectsoftheCOVIDpandemichavebeenconcen-tratedontheelderlyratherthantheworking‐agepopulation(DiMatteo,2021).16?StormwithoutEnd?DiMatteopreviouspeaksandtotaldeathsmatchorexceedpreviousrecordsinmanyjurisdictions.Forexample,PrinceEdwardIslandreportednodeathsfromCOVID-19untilJanuaryof2022,whenithad9deaths(COVID-19Tracker,2022).Ultimately,evenafterwidespreadvaccination,theneedtoslowinfectionsandpreventyresultedinprotractedlockdownsandotherstringentcontrolmeasures,withtheassociatednega-iveequipmenttobedepletedanddidnothaveitsownvaccine-manufacturingcapacity(DiMatteo,2021b;Tasker,2022).Despitetotalhealthspendingrisingduringthepandemic,itremainsthattheclosingoftonhospitalcareservices,fromMarchtoDecember2020overallsurgerynumbersfellmparedwiththesameperiodinadropofsurgeriesCIHICanadahadoneofthelowestratiosofhospitalbedstopopulationofthedevelopedcountries(DiMatteo,2021a)andthestringencyoflockdownandotherassortedmeas-urestoconservethecapacityofhealthsystemswerefactorsinthesizeandvariationofeconomiccontractionsduringthepandemic.Thus,hospitalizationsaswellasthestrin-gencyoflockdownsandothermeasuresmayalsobefactorsinthesizeandvariationofeconomiccontractionsintheprovincesoverthecourseofthepandemic.Figure4AureBplotshealthcaresystemandshortagesofhealth-careworkersemergedthathavecarriedoverintothepresent.Figure4CplotsthemonthlyaverageofthedailyCOVID-19StringencyIndex12forCanada’sprovincesprovidedbytheInstituteforResearchonPublicPolicy’sCentreofnTheIndexmeasuresthepolicyresponseofeachprovinceintermsofthemeasuresandrestrictionsenacted,includingsizesofgatheringsndtravelrestrictionsIttakesonavaluefromto12.TheindexissimilarinprincipleandconstructiontotheOxfordStringencyIndex(BlavatnikSchoolofGovernment,UniversityofOxford,2021).talofindicatorsIRPPationsations0ationsations0DiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?1720220MBSKAB18?StormwithoutEnd?DiMatteo2022erageoralltheprovincessittingat0.42onMarch1andsoaringto56.9byMarch31.StringencythendeclinedbottomingoutinOctoberof2020beforestartingtoriseandagainpeakinginMay2021andthendeclinedreachingalowpointinAugustof2021beforerisingagaintohitanotherpeakinJanuary2022duringtheOmicronwaveofCOVID-19.QuebecandOntariohadsomeofthehigheststringency-indexvaluesatcertainpointsndemicnamelyAprilofJanuaryofandinOntarioespeciallyMayof2021.StringencythendeclinedbottomingoutinDecemberof2020beforestart-ingtoriseagain.Itpeakedinearly2021inbothprovincesandthendeclinedinQuebecwhilepeakinginOntarioinMay2021beforedeclining.TherewasanotherstringencypeakinJanuary2022thatonceagaindeclined.Overtheentireperiodcoveredbyfig-ure4C,OntarioandQuebecconsistentlyhadsomeofthehighestlevelsofstringency.GiventhathigherlevelsofstringencyhavebeenassociatedwithanegativeimpactonrealGDPgrowthacrosscountriesduringthepandemic,14thisislikelytohavebeenafactorintheeconomicperformanceofCanada’sprovincestoo.sindealingssDiMatteo?Chapter1:TheEconomicImpactofCOVID-19onCanadaandtheProvinces?19TheCOVID-19pandemicanditsassociatedlockdowns,quarantines,andtravelrestric-tionshadmajoreffectsonCanadianemploymentespeciallyinthei