國際金融學(xué)課件：Lecture 4 The International Reserve Account

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TheInternationalReserveAccountandChina’sForexReserveManagementTheInternationalReserveAccountTheinternationalreserveaccountincludesalltheassetsundertakenbytheauthoritiestofinancetheoverallbalanceandinterveneintheforeignexchangemarkets.1TheInternationalReserveAccountOfficialreservesassetsiscomposedofGoldForeignexchangeSpecialDrawingRightsReservepositionsintheIMF2Gold

TheGold/InternationalReserveRatio(2004)Countries%ratiocountries%ratioUSA58.5%Swiss48.9%Germany48.5%Japan1.3%Italy50.7%China1.7%3ForeignExchangeReserveAreservecurrencyshouldhavethefollowingpropertiesCanbechangedtootherreservecurrenciesfreely.AccountforimportantpositionintheInternationalMonetarySystem.Hasstablepurchasingpower.4ForeignExchangeReserve5SpecialDrawingRightsThereserveassetscreatedbyIMFin1970,mainlyholdbyIMFmembercountries.15officialorganizationscanholdSDR,suchasAsiandevelopmentbank,AfricandevelopmentbankandtheBankforinternationalclearing.ItisusedaspaymentmethodbetweenIMFmembercountries.6SpecialDrawingRightsOriginallySDRistheweightedaverageofthebasketof16currencies.TheIMFadjuststhebasketeveryfiveyearstoensurethosecurrenciesarethemostcommonlyusedcurrencyandtheweightedaveragecanreflecttheimportanceofeachcurrencyintheinternationaltrade.7SpecialDrawingRightsSince1980,thevalueofSDRisdeterminedbytheweightedaverageof5currencies.Since1999,SDRistheweightedaverageofthefollowing4currenciesfromthe5industrialnations:U.S.DollarPoundSterlingJapaneseYenEuro(France)Euro(German)8SpecialDrawingRightsThelatestweightstartsin2011/1/1:WeightRateDollarValueUSD41.9%10.419Euro37.4%1.30210.487GBP11.3%1.52460.172JPY9.4%0.010560.0011.0799SpecialDrawingRightsSDRiscalculateddailybasedontheequivalentDollarvalueofDollar,Euro,JapaneseYenandPoundsquotedeverynooninLondonmarket.10SpecialDrawingRightsStarting1983theinterestsofSDRiscalculatedeveryweekbasedtheweightedaverageinterestratesofthefivecountries.Specifically,theweightedaverageofthethree-monthtreasurybillsoftheUS,UKandFrance,thethree-monthinterbankinterestofGermany,andthethreemonthdepositrateofJapan.11SpecialDrawingRightsStarting1970theIMFhasissued22billionUSDollarworthofSpecialDrawingRights.2/3isholdbydevelopedcountries.12SpecialDrawingRightsThefunctionofSDR:TheIMFmembercountriescanuseittoreturntheloanstoIMF.CanusedaspaymentmethodbetweenIMFmembercountries.13ReservePositionintheIMFAlsocalledGeneralDrawingRights.Mainlycomposedof25%ofgoldorforeignexchangeacountrypaystheIMF,and75%ofthehomecurrency.14OfficialReserveAccountFunctions:SubsidizetheBOPdeficit,andmaintaintheexternalpaymentcapability.Asinterventionassets,itadjuststheexchangerateofthehomecurrencyusingforeigncurrencyreserve.It’sanimportantcreditforacountrytoborrowabroad.Italsoguaranteestheconfidenceinitshomecurrency.15OfficialReserveAccountsOfficialreserveaccountsscaleisdeterminedbythefollowingfactorsThecountry’srelevantpositionintheinternationalmonetarysystemTheBOPsituationTheefficiencyofotherBOPadjustmentmeasuresThecountry’sfinancingabilityandtheinternationalcircumstancesTheforexexchangeratesystem.Thedegreeofopennesstotheworld.Theopportunitycostforholdingtheofficialreserve.Theeconomicdevelopmentobjectives.16OfficialReserveAccountTheprinciplesforofficialreservestructureLiquiditySafetyProfitability17China’sForexReserveManagement

UntilJune2014,China’sforexreservehasexceeded4trillionU.S.Dollar.18China’sForexReserveManagementDebateonChina’sforexreservescaleSomethinkChina’scurrentreservescaleisunreasonable.Theothersholdthatitisreasonable.19Howtodecidetheforexreservescale?Normally,thefollowingratioisusedtodecidewhetheronecountry’sforexreservescaleisreasonable.Reserve/Imports:30-40%Reserve/GDP:8%Reserve/Foreigndebt:30%20China’sForexReserveScaleHowever,mostpeopleholdthatChina’sforexreservescaleisreasonablesinceChina’sspecialeconomicconditionsIt’stheresultofBCAandBKAsurplus,notthegovernment’sspecialpolicy.Asignificantpartofthereserveisforeigndebtwhichshouldbereturninfutureyears.21China’sForexReserveScaleSomeholdthatChina’sreservelevelistoohighandithassomeadverseeffects.TheRMBappreciationpressureThepossibilityofinflationThehighopportunitycostsTheforeignexchangeandinterestrisks22TheCurrentSituationofChina’sforexreservemanagementAlargepartofthereserveisU.S.Dollar.About80%isusedinpurchasingUStreasurybond.23China’sForexReserveManagementSomesuggestionsareraisedMakeproperuseofthereserveEncourageforeigninvestment