財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析的邏輯切入點(diǎn)課件

廈門國(guó)家會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院

報(bào)表分析新思維(之一)

報(bào)表分析的邏輯切入點(diǎn)

黃世忠

Ph.DCPA.MBA聯(lián)系電話:0592-25777781390601696512/8/20221XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute廈門國(guó)家會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院12/7/20221XiamenNa闡述報(bào)表分析的邏輯切入點(diǎn)基于M公司與GFC公司的案例分析案例分析德隆的垮臺(tái)與財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的預(yù)警信號(hào)中石油的經(jīng)營(yíng)記錄與業(yè)績(jī)?cè)u(píng)價(jià)移動(dòng)電信的輝煌業(yè)績(jī)與潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)本講旨在闡明報(bào)表分析的常見(jiàn)誤區(qū)，把握?qǐng)?bào)表分析的邏輯體系研討要點(diǎn)與目的12/8/20222XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute闡述報(bào)表分析的邏輯切入點(diǎn)研討要點(diǎn)與目的12/7/20222X三大核心問(wèn)題問(wèn)題1M公司與GFC公司孰優(yōu)孰劣？孰強(qiáng)孰弱？問(wèn)題2M公司與GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？問(wèn)題3如何評(píng)價(jià)M公司與GFC公司的業(yè)績(jī)？

考倒全世界頂級(jí)MBA的難題12/8/20223XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大核心問(wèn)題考倒全世界頂級(jí)MBA的難題12/7/202

經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模--雇員人數(shù)12/8/20224XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模--雇員人數(shù)12/7/20224Xi

經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模--資產(chǎn)總額12/8/20225XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模--資產(chǎn)總額12/7/20225Xiame

經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)?！N售收入12/8/20226XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模—銷售收入12/7/20226Xiame

經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模--CFFOA12/8/20227XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)模--CFFOA12/7/20227Xiam股票市值(Capitalization)12/8/20228XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute股票市值(Capitalization)12/7/20財(cái)務(wù)實(shí)力—凈資產(chǎn)12/8/20229XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute財(cái)務(wù)實(shí)力—凈資產(chǎn)12/7/20229Xiamen

經(jīng)營(yíng)績(jī)效—凈利潤(rùn)12/8/202210XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營(yíng)績(jī)效—凈利潤(rùn)12/7/202210Xiamen財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2002)

項(xiàng)目名稱

GFC公司

M公司

倍數(shù)GFC合計(jì)M雇員人數(shù)36.535.036.8108.35.0521.45資產(chǎn)總額3,7182,9522,1928,86267613.11銷售收入1,8601,6261,7505,23628418.44現(xiàn)金流量1711862085651453.90股票市值2001963137092,5410.28股東權(quán)益68564085325400.99凈利潤(rùn)17-105562780.79ROE25%-18%13%12%14%0.86新經(jīng)濟(jì)與舊經(jīng)濟(jì)的反差12/8/202211XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2002)項(xiàng)目1.科學(xué)管理(時(shí)間和動(dòng)作研究)2.成本核算和差異分析3.商業(yè)研究實(shí)驗(yàn)室(科學(xué)產(chǎn)業(yè)化)(GE)4.(ROI&ROE)資本分析和資本預(yù)算5.品牌管理(P&G)6.大規(guī)模項(xiàng)目管理7.事業(yè)部制(GM)8.領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力開(kāi)發(fā)(GE)9.產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)聯(lián)合(多公司合作組織)(Visa)10.極度分權(quán)化(自我組織)(Google)11.正式化戰(zhàn)略分析12.員工驅(qū)動(dòng)問(wèn)題解決法(Toyota)DuPontAnalysis13.臭鼬工廠(內(nèi)部攻堅(jiān)小組)14.客戶管理15.業(yè)務(wù)流程再造

1900-2000年175項(xiàng)管理創(chuàng)新1.是否明顯脫離以前的管理實(shí)踐2.是否給率先創(chuàng)新的公司帶來(lái)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)3.是否在當(dāng)今的組織中留下烙印

20世紀(jì)現(xiàn)代管理的12大創(chuàng)新12/8/202212XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1.科學(xué)管理(時(shí)間和動(dòng)作研究)DuPont13.臭鼬工廠(內(nèi)凈資產(chǎn)收益率

(收入+利得)–(成本+費(fèi)用+損失)實(shí)收資本+資本公積+盈余公積+未分配利潤(rùn)

凈利潤(rùn)ROE=凈資產(chǎn)做大分子:增收節(jié)支做小分母:光明正道:資本結(jié)構(gòu)歪門邪道:虧損揮霍

ROE陷阱12/8/202213XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute凈資產(chǎn)收益率財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2003)

項(xiàng)目名稱

GFC公司

M公司

倍數(shù)GFC合計(jì)M雇員人數(shù)32.332.838.4103.55.718.2資產(chǎn)總額4,4853,0462,2469,77779612.3銷售收入1,8551,6421,7195,21632216.2現(xiàn)金流量762022084861583.1股票市值2182594539302,9150.32股東權(quán)益2521174348036101.32凈利潤(rùn)384.95.648.599.90.49ROE15%4%1.3%6%16%0.38

新經(jīng)濟(jì)與舊經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)烈反差12/8/202214XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2003)項(xiàng)目盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量

財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析的三大邏輯切入點(diǎn)12/8/202215XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析的三大邏輯切入點(diǎn)12/盈利質(zhì)量收入質(zhì)量利潤(rùn)質(zhì)量毛利率成長(zhǎng)性波動(dòng)性研發(fā)營(yíng)銷

盈利質(zhì)量分析方法12/8/202216XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量收入質(zhì)量利潤(rùn)質(zhì)量毛利率成長(zhǎng)性波動(dòng)性研發(fā)營(yíng)銷收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999197169016011482200023017391698160320012531691160915402002284177316231474200332218551642136420043681935170914212005398192617711498200644320731601151620075111881172515262008604

12/8/202217XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)MSF收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)12/8/202218XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)12/7/2

利潤(rùn)質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999796072572000944535792001736-55-720027817-104720039538542004902835252005122-10620282006126-21-124322007141-387-25402008177

12/8/202219XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute利潤(rùn)質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)MS利潤(rùn)質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)12/8/202220XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute利潤(rùn)質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)12/7/RivalAmountDateTimeWarner$750mMay2003SunMicro$1.95bApril2004Novell$536mNov.2004B$60mMarch2005Gateway$150mApril2005IBM$775mJune2005Total$4.221bMicrosoftSettlement

(Antitrustsuitfiledin1998,settledin2001)12/8/202221XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteRivalAmount項(xiàng)目名稱GMFordDaimlerChrysler200420052004200520042005銷售收入1,935.171,926.041,716.461,781.011,682.261,773.65其中:汽車1,615.461,582.211,471.281,545.151,517.191,590.82金融319.71343.83245.18235.86165.07182.83凈利潤(rùn)27.89-105.5434.8719.9829.2033.70其中:汽車-1.05-130.62-1.55-39.26n.an.a金融28.0825.0850.0858.81n.an.a經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī):2005vs.200412/8/202222XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項(xiàng)目GM2006:艱難的轉(zhuǎn)折?ChryslerGroup2006OperatingLoss$152007totalLoss$29.2May15,2007soldfor$74May10,1998boughtfor$360GMFordDCXQ14.45-11.872.99Q2-33.79-2.5418.10Q3-1.15-58.005.51Q4+9.50-51.645.67Total-20.99-124.0532.272007:-$3872008Q3:-$213SEasoftheendof2008Q3GM:-599;Ford:-202008Q3-$8712/8/202223XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2006:艱難的轉(zhuǎn)折?ChryslerGrou毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)會(huì)計(jì)年度GFCM20019.2%1.8%16.1%86.3%20027.8%6.8%18.8%81.6%20038.0%6.2%19.4%81.2%20047.0%7.8%19.4%81.8%2005-2.5%5.6%17.9%84.4%20064.8%-3.9%17.1%81.1%20076.7%7.6%24.8%79.1%2008

80.8%12/8/202224XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)會(huì)計(jì)年度M公司的成本費(fèi)用結(jié)構(gòu)3EStrategyEmbrace,Extend,Extinguish12/8/202225XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteM公司的成本費(fèi)用結(jié)構(gòu)3EStrategy12/7/202R&D占銷售收入比重2006年2248家企業(yè)集團(tuán)R&D占比1.1%GM2003-20053.33%;3.34%;3.47%12/8/202226XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteR&D占銷售收入比重2006年2248家企業(yè)集團(tuán)成本結(jié)構(gòu)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)金含量退出壁壘經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)財(cái)務(wù)彈性潛在損失

資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量分析方法技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)12/8/202227XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute成本結(jié)構(gòu)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)金含量退出壁壘經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)財(cái)資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2001)12/8/202228XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2001)1資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2002)12/8/202229XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2002)1資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2003)12/8/202230XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2003)1資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2004)12/8/202231XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2004)1資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2005)12/8/202232XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2005)1

如何解釋市凈率?13.15.55.83.40.6712/8/202233XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute如何解釋市凈率?3.40.671

品牌價(jià)值12/8/202234XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute品牌價(jià)值12/7/202234Xia

被忽略的“軟資產(chǎn)”Coca-ColaMicrosoft品牌價(jià)值資產(chǎn)總額股東權(quán)益品牌價(jià)值資產(chǎn)總額股東權(quán)益2001690224114651588473200269624411864167652220037052731416527966492004674314159614944748200567529416459970848212/8/202235XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute被忽略的“軟資產(chǎn)”Coca-Cola何為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?Riskisuncertainty風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的類別經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(EconomicRisk)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(經(jīng)濟(jì)條件、政治及社會(huì)環(huán)境）市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)、企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)）經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（OperationalRisk)固定成本與變動(dòng)成本比例財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（FinancialRisk)資本結(jié)構(gòu)與金融市場(chǎng)利率營(yíng)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)BusinessRisk利潤(rùn)易變性ProfitVolatility傳導(dǎo)傳導(dǎo)成本結(jié)構(gòu)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)12/8/202236XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute何為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?營(yíng)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利潤(rùn)易變性傳傳成本結(jié)構(gòu)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)12/7/+5%+14%+18%

-5%-14%-18%

經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

營(yíng)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況政治社會(huì)環(huán)境銷售收入息稅前利潤(rùn)稅后利潤(rùn)市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳導(dǎo)與放大12/8/202237XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況銷售息稅前稅后市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳導(dǎo)與放大12

XYZ公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估測(cè)算表預(yù)期數(shù)

銷售收入+5%

銷售收入-5%銷售收入50,000+5%52,500-5%47,500減:變動(dòng)成本19,000+5%19,950-5%18,050

固定成本20,0000%20,0000%20,000息稅前利潤(rùn)11,000+14%12,550-14%9,450減:固定利息支出2,5000%2,5000%2,500稅前利潤(rùn)8,500+18%10,050-18%6,950減:所得稅2,125+18%2,513-18%1,738稅后利潤(rùn)6,375+18%7,537-18%5,212

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳導(dǎo)放大效應(yīng)12/8/202238XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteXYZ公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估測(cè)算表預(yù)期現(xiàn)金流量經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流量自由現(xiàn)金流量“造血”功能自由裁量

現(xiàn)金流量分析方法12/8/202239XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流量自由現(xiàn)金流量“造血”功能自由裁量廣義的自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF=經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流量-資本支出用于評(píng)估還本付息和股利支付的能力狹義的自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF=經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流量-資本支出-現(xiàn)金股利用于評(píng)估企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)彈性利用市場(chǎng)機(jī)遇和應(yīng)對(duì)市場(chǎng)逆境的能力用于評(píng)估企業(yè)依靠?jī)?nèi)部現(xiàn)金資源謀求發(fā)展的能力CFFOAvs.FreeCashFlow12/8/202240XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute廣義的自由現(xiàn)金流量CFFOAvs.FreeCash現(xiàn)金流量趨勢(shì):G(12vs.73)200420052006FCF+53-250-197Interest120158170Principal4526461419162007CF-O:77;CF-CE:75Int.:29;P:184412/8/202241XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量趨勢(shì):G(12vs.73)20042005202005.12.13Cut30,000jobsClose9facilitiesBy2008(2005.11.21)Share$19.85(2005.12.20)Lowestin23yearsGM-不斷惡化的信用等級(jí)12/8/202242XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2005.12.13Cut30,000jobsGM-不斷

GMvs.Toyota2008.11.7GM:27TM:105212/8/202243XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteGMvs.Toyota2008.11.71誰(shuí)是老大?12/8/202244XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute誰(shuí)是老大?12/7/202244Xiame1.1millionofemployeescovered,pensionandhealthcareliabilitytotaled$170b,currentShortage$54bGM-不堪重負(fù)的醫(yī)療與退休債務(wù)12/8/202245XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1.1millionofemployeescover20052004GMToyotaGMToyotaHealthCare$1,850

$200$1,528$201Pension$700$50$695$50Total$2,550$250$2,223$251GAP:$2,300GAP:$1,972醫(yī)療及退休費(fèi)用對(duì)制造成本的影響12/8/202246XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute20052004汽車巨頭盈利能力差異12/8/202247XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute汽車巨頭盈利能力差異12/7/202247XiamenS&PloweredFord’sratingtoB+onJune27,2006現(xiàn)金流量趨勢(shì):F(69vs.63)2007CF-O:171CF-CE:6012/8/202248XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteS&PloweredFord’sratingto2006年—F公司的生死之年?WayForwardTurnaroundProgram1.CutNorthAmericaWhite-collarcostsby10%2.Eliminateupto30,000Hourlyjobsandclose14Plantsby20122006.9.15Buyoutall75,000NorthAmericanfactoryworkers$140,000perworkerTotal$10.5billion12/8/202249XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2006年—F公司的生死之年?WayForward12/7

現(xiàn)金流量趨勢(shì):C2007CF-O:191CF-CE:16412/8/202250XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量趨勢(shì):C200712/7/202250Xiamen

現(xiàn)金流量趨勢(shì):M12/8/202251XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量趨勢(shì):M12/7/202251XiamenMicrosoft:股票期權(quán)的妙用IfyouworkforMicrosoft,Microsoftdoesnotpayyou,youhavetopayMicrosoft2003-2008166.4012/8/202252XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteMicrosoft:股票期權(quán)的妙用IfyouworkProblemChildrenStarsDogsCashCows市場(chǎng)成長(zhǎng)性市場(chǎng)占有率高低高

BytheBostonConsultingGroupin1968

波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)12/8/202253XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteProblemChildrenStarsDogsCashStars(現(xiàn)金明星)

–PLC處于高速成長(zhǎng)階段，市場(chǎng)占有率很高且仍呈上升趨勢(shì)–銷售收入和現(xiàn)金流量有很高的增長(zhǎng)潛力–獲利豐厚，但現(xiàn)金流量不很充裕波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)12/8/202254XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteStars(現(xiàn)金明星)波士頓矩陣(TheBostonCashCows(現(xiàn)金奶牛)市場(chǎng)占有率很高PLC處于成熟階段產(chǎn)品維持成本較低現(xiàn)金性收入很高經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流量十分充裕波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)12/8/202255XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteCashCows(現(xiàn)金奶牛)波士頓矩陣(TheBostoDogs(現(xiàn)金瘦狗)PLC處于衰退階段

市場(chǎng)占有率很低或不斷下降經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流量入不敷出產(chǎn)品需要大量維持支出Isyourproductstartingtoembarrassyourcompany?波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)12/8/202256XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteDogs(現(xiàn)金瘦狗)IsyourproductstarProblemChild(問(wèn)題小孩)PLC處于高速成長(zhǎng)階段，但市場(chǎng)占有率很低產(chǎn)品維持需要大量資金支出經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流量可能出現(xiàn)負(fù)數(shù)未來(lái)潛力充滿不確定性Problemchildren–worthspendinggoodmoneyon?波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)12/8/202257XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteProblemChildProblemchildren

股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)12/8/202258XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute股票市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)12/7/202258XiameMicrosoft的崛起1975年4月BillGatesandPaulAllen創(chuàng)立了MicrosoftMicrosoftstaffphotofromDecember7,1978.Fromlefttoright:

Top:SteveWood,BobWallace,JimLane.

Middle:BobO'Rear,BobGreenberg,MarcMcDonald,GordonLetwin.

Bottom:BillGates,AndreaLewis,MarlaWood,PaulAllen

IPOinMarch13,1986,raising$61mTodate,totalcapitalraisedismorethan$62.8b12/8/202259XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteMicrosoft的崛起1975年4月BillGates

BillGates的”裸捐”WarrenBuffettdonated$37billion,mainlytotheBill&MelindaGatesFoundation+$5012/8/202260XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteBillGates的”裸捐”WarrenBuf誰(shuí)是美國(guó)高科技的最大功臣?

中美經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的不同價(jià)值取向12/8/202261XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute誰(shuí)是美國(guó)高科技的最大功臣?中美經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的12/7/2022三大邏輯切入點(diǎn)盈利質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量收入質(zhì)量利潤(rùn)質(zhì)量毛利率高低成長(zhǎng)性退出壁壘潛在損失經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金流量自由現(xiàn)金流量波動(dòng)性資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)金含量”造血“功能自由裁量研發(fā)營(yíng)銷報(bào)表分析三大邏輯切入點(diǎn)12/8/202262XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大盈利質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量收入質(zhì)量利潤(rùn)質(zhì)量毛利率高低成長(zhǎng)性盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例NPLRatio2005:4.62%;2006:4.04%NPLRatio2001:27.51%;2002:22.49%撥備覆蓋率2001:16.80%2002:22.09%撥備覆蓋率2005:80.55%;2006:96.00%12/8/202263XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例NPLRatioNPLRa盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例類別名稱XYZ銀行20022001正常貸款11,5568,935關(guān)注貸款2,5202,558不良貸款4,0854,360其中:次級(jí)6571,089可疑1,5542,344損失1,874927貸款合計(jì)18,16215,853貸款準(zhǔn)備903681貸款類別計(jì)提比例正常1%關(guān)注2%次級(jí)25%可疑50%損失100%12/8/202264XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例類別第一次不良貸款剝離Carved-outOrCoveredout?12/8/202265XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute第一次不良貸款剝離Carved-out12/7/202BankAMCNPL(￥billion)工行華融407.7農(nóng)行長(zhǎng)城345.8中行東方267.4建行信達(dá)373.0合計(jì)1,394.0《財(cái)政部關(guān)于中國(guó)銀行和中國(guó)建設(shè)銀行所持金融資產(chǎn)管理公司債券本息有關(guān)問(wèn)題的通知》（財(cái)金[2004]87號(hào)），從2005.1.1起，如果東方和信達(dá)不能全額向BOC和CCB支付債券利息或按期兌付本金，MOF將給予資金支持NPLtransferredtoAMC12/8/202266XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteBankAMCNPL(￥bil414億元可疑類貸款227億元核銷沖銷貸款2787億元可疑類貸款2460億元損失類貸款4590億元可疑類貸款交行2004.6中行和建行2004.6工行2005.5;2005.6信達(dá)信達(dá)四大AMC

不良貸款二次剝離12/8/202267XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2787億元2460億元交行中行和建行工行信達(dá)信達(dá)四大AMC年度凈利潤(rùn)C(jī)FFOA19989,876-17,191199912,308-21,248200017,844-53,57620013,610-2,59420022,280-84,8072003-18,683-15,54420041,98245,3002005-69,60021,6002006-71,86616,413年度凈利潤(rùn)比例調(diào)整前17,844調(diào)整后6,99539.2%調(diào)整額10,84960.8%調(diào)整原因?qū)⒃?jì)入長(zhǎng)期待攤費(fèi)用和在建工程的R&D，作為重大會(huì)計(jì)差錯(cuò)進(jìn)行調(diào)整

“紙面富貴”的D公司2004:S26.3;NI(A)-641;2005:S15.6;NI(A)-7.112006:S21.42004:NIoverstatedby3719,30finedbyCSRS12/8/202268XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute年度凈利潤(rùn)C(jī)FFOA19989,876

樂(lè)極生悲的四川長(zhǎng)虹凈利潤(rùn)20010.891.762.412004-36.812004Q1-Q3CFFOA-3.1212/8/202269XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute樂(lè)極生悲的四川長(zhǎng)虹凈利潤(rùn)2004Q1-Q312/權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制會(huì)計(jì)管理當(dāng)局動(dòng)機(jī)盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量分析資產(chǎn)負(fù)債質(zhì)量核心盈利可持續(xù)性、成長(zhǎng)性、現(xiàn)金流量調(diào)整與調(diào)節(jié)應(yīng)計(jì)制向現(xiàn)金流動(dòng)制的轉(zhuǎn)換確認(rèn)和計(jì)量資產(chǎn)、負(fù)債、股東權(quán)益決策財(cái)務(wù)契約設(shè)計(jì)估值與投資信貸分析財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估審計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估差錯(cuò)歪曲報(bào)表失真問(wèn)題報(bào)表分析緯度報(bào)表分析用途財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析的邏輯切入點(diǎn)12/8/202270XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量資產(chǎn)負(fù)債核心盈利調(diào)整與調(diào)節(jié)確認(rèn)和計(jì)量三大報(bào)表的功能區(qū)分資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表利潤(rùn)表現(xiàn)金流量表從“德隆系”的垮臺(tái)看證券監(jiān)管的誤區(qū)基于新疆屯河的案例分析德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202271XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大報(bào)表的功能區(qū)分德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/7/2022現(xiàn)金流量表的“妙用”經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量投資活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量籌資活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量造血功能抽血功能輸血功能現(xiàn)金流量表—經(jīng)常被忽略的報(bào)表12/8/202272XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量表的“妙用”經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量投資活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金IPO的條件3年連續(xù)盈利上市前一年末的凈資產(chǎn)比率不低于30%SEO的門檻配股：ROE不低于6%增發(fā)：上一年的ROE不低于10%ST或退市的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)ST：連續(xù)兩年虧損，或NAPS低于1元退市：連續(xù)三年虧損復(fù)市的條件恢復(fù)盈利以利潤(rùn)表和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的監(jiān)管導(dǎo)向12/8/202273XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteIPO的條件以利潤(rùn)表和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的監(jiān)管導(dǎo)向12/7/2022

項(xiàng)目名稱2001年末2002年末2003年末2004年末流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)173,190281,349139,354163,402長(zhǎng)期投資98,33978,10188,11448,081固定資產(chǎn)134,618245,025143,305171,191無(wú)形及其他資產(chǎn)23,62127,5469,73311,676

資產(chǎn)總計(jì)429,768632,021380,506394,350流動(dòng)負(fù)債278,007426,140217,752311,522長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債6,70642,83548,51443,459少數(shù)股東權(quán)益56,60962,0472,5923,378股東權(quán)益88,446100,999111,64835,991L&SE總計(jì)429,768632,021380,506394,350

德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202274XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項(xiàng)目名稱2001年末2002年末中國(guó)電信的運(yùn)營(yíng)資本20072006200520042003固定資產(chǎn)339,331346,805351,938349,713341,576其他非流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)25,99327,86028,70129,47129,391現(xiàn)金及銀行存款20,55622,44518,86314,60318,199其他流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)22,12421,76121,58219,83920,278資產(chǎn)合計(jì)408,004418,871421,084413,626409,444流動(dòng)負(fù)債138,537157,629157,707152,284149,630非流動(dòng)負(fù)債47,09553,59377,199100,007102,744負(fù)債合計(jì)185,632211,222234,906252,291252,374股東權(quán)益222.372207,649186,178161,335157,070負(fù)債與股東權(quán)益合計(jì)408,004418,871421,084413,626409,444運(yùn)營(yíng)資本-95,857-113,423-117,262-117,842-111,153運(yùn)營(yíng)資本—中國(guó)移動(dòng)+52,68+22,16112/8/202275XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國(guó)電信的運(yùn)營(yíng)資本2007200620047,459185,084-34,924德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202276XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute20047,459185,084-34,924德隆項(xiàng)目名稱2001年2002年2003年2004年主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入76,726194,351217,379109,765主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)利潤(rùn)25,87272,13878,55029,980營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)3,8247,6135,357-29,177加：投資收益4,2354,9929,824-37,839補(bǔ)貼收入5654,887407472營(yíng)業(yè)外收入317411345106減：營(yíng)業(yè)外支出1565564781,958利潤(rùn)總額8,78517,34715,456-68,397減：所得稅-5222,374168179少數(shù)股東損益4,2413,7093,361-746加：未確認(rèn)投資損失

1,229凈利潤(rùn)5,06611,26211,926-66,601德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202277XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項(xiàng)目名稱2001年2002項(xiàng)目名稱2001年2002年2003年2004年經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金-19,61848,84527,726-41,910投資活動(dòng)的現(xiàn)金流入3,72228370,39315,232其中:收回投資3,180069,94815,100投資收益506000投資活動(dòng)的現(xiàn)金流出55,91351,884173,16724,909投資活動(dòng)的凈現(xiàn)金流-52,19151,601-102,774-9,676籌資活動(dòng)的現(xiàn)金流入156,569212,677327,95262,126其中:借款137,244212,467324,97358,968籌資活動(dòng)的現(xiàn)金流出75,651143,361289,02050,596其中：償還債務(wù)67,830123,278270,33240,802

支付股利和利息7,82119,89717,3419,733德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202278XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項(xiàng)目名稱2001年2002德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202279XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/7/202279Xiamen德隆的死因既不是被郎咸平“搞死”的，也不是被監(jiān)管部門“整死”的而是自己“搞死”的戰(zhàn)略管理的失誤理財(cái)策略的失誤短借長(zhǎng)用“造血”功能不足，靠“輸血”維持，且不懂得“節(jié)制”初步啟示證券監(jiān)管出現(xiàn)方向性“偏差”CSRC和兩個(gè)SE都不關(guān)心現(xiàn)金流量表，CPA也不例外理性回歸牢記理財(cái)學(xué)中的“萬(wàn)有引力定律”Cashisking!CashFlowStatementisakingwithoutcloth!

簡(jiǎn)短結(jié)論12/8/202280XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute德隆的死因簡(jiǎn)短結(jié)論12/7/202280X燃料工業(yè)部石油管理總局(1950.4)石油工業(yè)部(1955.7)燃料化學(xué)工業(yè)部(1970.6)石油化學(xué)工業(yè)部(1975)石油工業(yè)部(1978)中國(guó)石油天然氣總公司(1988.9)中國(guó)石油天然氣集團(tuán)公司(1998.7)中國(guó)海洋石油總公司(1982.2)中國(guó)石油化工總公司(1983.7)

中國(guó)石油化工行業(yè)的沿革12/8/202281XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute燃料工業(yè)部石油管理總局(1950.4)石油工業(yè)部(1955.2000.4上市—200億2005.9增發(fā)—196億1999.11.5重組中石油(0857.HK)股價(jià)周線圖發(fā)行40億A股,發(fā)行價(jià)16.70元，募集688億元股份比例%國(guó)有股157986.28H股21111.53A股402.19合計(jì)1830100.012/8/202282XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2000.4上市—200億1999.11.5中石油(0857中石油上市以來(lái)股價(jià)表現(xiàn)發(fā)行價(jià)格1.26vs.16.7巴菲特撤退?12/8/202283XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油上市以來(lái)股價(jià)表現(xiàn)發(fā)行價(jià)格巴菲特撤退?12/7/202中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?--業(yè)績(jī)角度2008Q3S:8537NI:98712/8/202284XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?--業(yè)績(jī)角度2008Q312/7/20中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?–稅收角度2008Q3188312/8/202285XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?–稅收角度2008Q312/7/20中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?–資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)角度2008Q3TA:10594;FA:693512/8/202286XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?–資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)角度2008Q312/7/2中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?

–財(cái)務(wù)狀況角度2008Q3TA:11227;SE:7853DR:30.05%DR:28.07%12/8/202287XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?–財(cái)務(wù)狀況角度2008Q3DR:12/中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?–現(xiàn)金流量角度2008Q3OA:1499;IA:-1196;FA:-26912/8/202288XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?–現(xiàn)金流量角度2008Q312/7/中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?—自由現(xiàn)金流量角度2008Q3:19712/8/202289XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?—自由現(xiàn)金流量角度2008Q3:197中國(guó)石油業(yè)績(jī)報(bào)告(可控與不可控因素分析)油價(jià)影響?EVA影響?改制影響?中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?12/8/202290XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國(guó)石油油價(jià)影響?EVA影響?改制影響?中石油業(yè)績(jī)因何突出?

業(yè)績(jī)飆升的動(dòng)因2007接替率原油:1.104天然氣:3.23812/8/202291XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute業(yè)績(jī)飆升的動(dòng)因2007接替率12/7/2022原油價(jià)格走勢(shì)圖(2000-2008)2008.10.31收盤$67.812008.7.11最高$147.2712/8/202292XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute原油價(jià)格走勢(shì)圖(2000-2008)2008.10.31收盤

“暴利稅”(300億)政府的重大決定(2006.3.26)《國(guó)務(wù)院關(guān)于開(kāi)征石油企業(yè)收益特別金的決定》、財(cái)政部《石油收益特別金征收管理辦法》

原油價(jià)格

稅率$40-$4520%$45-$5025%$50-$5530%$55-$6035%$60以上40%12/8/202293XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute“暴利稅”(300億)政府的重大決定(2EVAvs.NI–中石油

EVA=NOPAT–ICxWACC或EVA=凈利潤(rùn)-凈資產(chǎn)×資金成本率12/8/202294XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteEVAvs.NI–中石油

EVA=NOPAT–IC資本成本導(dǎo)致經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)銳減EVAvs.NI–中石化(2002)12/8/202295XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資本成本導(dǎo)致EVAvs.NI–中石化(2002)12/ValueCreationValueDestructionEVAvs.NI–四川長(zhǎng)虹(2002)12/8/202296XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteValueValueEVAvs.NI–四川長(zhǎng)虹(200CNPCvs.PC

的比較及涵義資產(chǎn)總額股東權(quán)益銷售收入稅后利潤(rùn)少數(shù)股東損益2000集團(tuán)股份6,5654,3203,9392,1763,4512,453197546522001集團(tuán)股份6,7514,6274,0892,9063,4352,413151455832002集團(tuán)股份7,3614,8314,5043,1673,7922,444236469942003集團(tuán)股份8,0835,3174,9693,5664,7533,038371696802004集團(tuán)股份9,1376,0995,9544,2525,7073,8867251,0291382005集團(tuán)股份11,6027,7817,4755,4376,9375,5221,0611,3961672006集團(tuán)股份14,0908,685n.a6,1768,6856,8901,2991,49488.2%(1,318)2007集團(tuán)股份15,9909,641n.a7,15110,0078,3501,3451,43486.3%(1,238)12/8/202297XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteCNPCvs.PC的比較及涵義資產(chǎn)總額股東權(quán)益銷售收入項(xiàng)目名稱SinopecGroupSinopec資產(chǎn)總額6,2024,608負(fù)債及少數(shù)股東權(quán)益4,2922,744股東權(quán)益1,9101,864主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入6,3425,906凈利潤(rùn)105323銷售利潤(rùn)率1.69%7.00%凈資產(chǎn)收益率5.49%17.32%SINOPEC少數(shù)股東損益165有何涵義？中石化集團(tuán)vs.中石化股份的比較及涵義12/8/202298XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項(xiàng)目名稱SinopecGroupSinoPetroChinavs.ExxonMobile2006.12.312008.10.3112/8/202299XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile2006PetroChinavs.ExxonMobile項(xiàng)目名稱200220032004200520062007銷售收入--PC--EM2,4932,0093,1042,3713,9742,9125,5223,5906,8903,6558,3503,903稅后利潤(rùn)--PC--EM4741157192151,0672531,3963611,4943951,434406資產(chǎn)總額--PC--EM5,0091,5265,5701,7436,3851,9537,7812,0838,7212,1909,9412,421凈資產(chǎn)--PC--EM3,2437463,6698994,4301,0185,4371,1125,4371,1127,1511,2183.412.071.781.2412/8/2022100XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile項(xiàng)目名稱PetroChinavs.ExxonMobile項(xiàng)目名稱200220032004200520062007銷售利潤(rùn)率--PC--EM19.01%5.72%23.16%9.06%27.07%8.69%25.28%10.06%21.68%10.81%17.17%10.40%資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率--PC--EM0.511.360.591.450.661.580.781.780.841.710.891.70財(cái)務(wù)杠桿系數(shù)--PC--EM1.542.051.521.941.441.921.431.871.411.921.391.99凈資產(chǎn)收益率--PC--EM14.93%15.95%20.77%25.48%25.73%26.36%28.19%33.49%25.68%35.49%21.34%34.50%DebtRatio-2007PC:28%EM:50%12/8/2022101XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile項(xiàng)目名稱

DuPont分析體系凈資產(chǎn)收益率的分解

凈利潤(rùn)凈資產(chǎn)收益率=凈資產(chǎn)凈利潤(rùn)銷售收入資產(chǎn)總額凈資產(chǎn)收益率=××銷售收入資產(chǎn)總額凈資產(chǎn)=銷售利潤(rùn)率×資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率×財(cái)務(wù)杠桿系數(shù)12/8/2022102XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteDuPont分析體系凈資產(chǎn)收益率的分解12/中國(guó)電信市場(chǎng)概覽市場(chǎng)總量2007年全國(guó)通信業(yè)務(wù)收入7120.6億元其中電信業(yè)務(wù)收入7280.18億元,增長(zhǎng)10.9%郵政業(yè)務(wù)收入771.5億元,增長(zhǎng)21.2%電話用戶總量2007.12.31,全國(guó)電話用戶91,273.4萬(wàn)戶其中移動(dòng)電話用戶54,728.4萬(wàn)戶,約占60%固定電話用戶36,545萬(wàn)戶,約占40%12/8/2022103XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國(guó)電信市場(chǎng)概覽市場(chǎng)總量12/7/2022103Xia移動(dòng)電話一支獨(dú)秀12/8/2022104XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute移動(dòng)電話一支獨(dú)秀12/7/2022104XiamenNat

發(fā)展趨勢(shì):冰火兩重天12/8/2022105XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute發(fā)展趨勢(shì):冰火兩重天12/7/2022105Xiamen電信市場(chǎng)構(gòu)成12/8/2022106XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute電信市場(chǎng)構(gòu)成12/7/2022106Xiamen