全球ESG研究：能源轉(zhuǎn)型入門-與碳時鐘賽跑

1、Equity Research Americas | United StatesGlobal ESG ResearchEnergy Transition Primer Race Against the Carbon ClockThematic Research | Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) ResearchEnvironmental, Social and Governance (ESG) ResearchA primer for the energy transition: In conjunction with the launc

2、h of our Investors Roadmap on Energy Transition, this primer lays out the necessary background information to understanding the purpose, drivers, and challenges of shifting to a low-carbon world. We also provide a framework to track rate of change of what is likely to be a multi-decade transition pr

3、ocess.The energy transition is an enormous challenge: To keep global warming 20% of the potential emission reductions.How it happens is a function of capital, political will, and technological innovation: There are inherent limitations to renewable energy sources relative to fossil fuels that make w

4、idespread adoption a steep challenge, such as (1) lower “power density” (i.e., energy generated per unit), (2) larger (and more particular) land area requirement, and (3) lower capacity factors from intermittency issues. Importantly, the technologies needed to overcome and/or compensate for these li

5、mitations are not yet available at the scale required. As such, government regulations and incentives are needed to drive reallocation of capital.Tracking progress: Our “Energy Transition Dashboard” tracks what we believe to be the key high frequency (monthly or quarterly) metrics to monitor progres

6、s of the energy transition in the US. Relative to the IEAs Sustainable Development Scenario, we believe the US is on track with shifting the power grid to renewable sources but lagging on the demand side (e.g., electrification of passenger vehicles, buildings, and industry). Meanwhile, climate- rela

7、ted action from US companies has increased markedly over the past 12 months.Credit Suisse Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) research seeks to focus on sustainability and accountability factors that are then integrated into the investment process.Research AnalystsBetty Jiang, CFA212 325 6259

8、 HYPERLINK mailto:betty.jiang betty.jiangMichael Ziffer, CFA212 538 0568 HYPERLINK mailto:michael.ziffer michael.zifferEugene Klerk44 20 7883 4678 HYPERLINK mailto:eugene.klerk eugene.klerkPhineas Glover61 2 8205 4448 HYPERLINK mailto:phineas.glover phineas.gloverFigure 1: IPCC Global Timeline to Re

9、ach Net Zero Emissions (Median and Interquartile Scenario Results)Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C, Credit SuisseDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL ENTITY DIS

10、CLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that couldTable of Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 Executive Sum

11、mary 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 Framing the Energy Transition 4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 Introduction 4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 The Global Energy Dilemma 4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Transition Requires Demand-Side Solutions 9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Drivers of Energy Decarbonization 12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_

12、250015 Power Sector Shifting to Renewables 12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Electrification of Industries 13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Improving Energy Efficiency 15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Limits of Shifting to Renewable Energy 17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Low “Power Density” 17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Large

13、 Land Footprint 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Low Capacity Factors 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 A Critical Decade of Climate Innovations 20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Electrification 22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Hydrogen 23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage 26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_2

14、50004 Energy Transition Dashboard 28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Renewable Energy Capacity Additions 29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Electricity Generation and Consumption Trends 32 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Electrification & Fuel Efficiency of Passenger Vehicles 35 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Action from Companie

15、s and Investors 38Executive SummaryThe energy transition is an enormous challenge: To keep global warming 2C, scientists project that energy-related CO2 emissions need to fall 25% by 2030, 50% by 2040, and reach “net zero” by 2070. To achieve these targets while still supporting economic and populat

16、ion growth, global per capita energy consumption needs to fall to levels not seen since before 1970 and carbon intensity of energy supplied needs to halve by 2040, while the annual pace of energy efficiency gains also needs to double. The world is far from this path today, both in terms of capital r

17、equirement and technology, but the urgency for change is growing. Even with the wide-range impact of COVID-19 on the global economy this year, climate change concerns continue to gain momentum among regulators, investors, and the broader population.The energy transition requires demand-side solution

18、s, many of which are still under development: While energy suppliers have faced the brunt of the societal and investor pressure to decarbonize, the solutions to the energy transition have to come from the demand side. Emissions from the use of energy (combustion) account for 75-80% of the lifecycle

19、emissions for oil and gas, meaning the burden of the transition primarily lies with the fossil fuel consumers. However, unlike coal, which is seeing demand loss supported by both economic and environmental factors, oil and gas remain the most cost competitive (if not the only) option in most of thei

20、r use areas. As a result, government interventions (e.g., subsidies and carbon taxes) and significant technological advancements are needed to accelerate the shift away from hydrocarbon fuels.Renewable energy and electrification are leading the transition today The power sector is at the core of the

21、 energy transition, as reducing the carbon intensity of electricity with renewables is the most visible path to decarbonization today. Wind and solar are now the cheapest sources of newbuild power across two-thirds of the world and are already undercutting coal power plants and increasingly gas powe

22、r plants. Under the 2C scenario, wind and solar generation capacity needs to be 5x and 10 x their respective sizes in 2018 and account for a combined 40% of global electricity generation by 2040 (up from 7% in 2018). Renewable penetration also goes hand-in-hand with electrification of end-user secto

23、rs, most technologically matured of which are EVs in light-duty transport and heating/cooling in buildings.but far from sufficient without material technological innovation: There are inherent limits to renewable energy, such as low power density of batteries vs. liquid fuels, significant land requi

24、rements, and intermittency issues. The International Energy Agency estimates that 35% of the CO2 emission reductions needed to keep warming 50% of the global population currently and are expected to account for nearly 70% of the global population growth between 2018 and 2040, according to the IEA; h

25、owever, the energy per capita consumed from these three countries is still just one-third of that of OECD countries on a weighted-average basis and should continue to grow without government policy constraints.Under the Stated Policies Scenario, the IEA projects global energy consumption per capita

26、will continue its upward trajectory through at least 2040 driven by non-OECD countries.Figure 2: Historical per Capita Energy Consumption Global, OECD, China, and India (1990-2040E)(1)5.00Per Capita Energy Consumption (Tonnes Oil Eqv Per Capita)4.003.002.001.00199019911992199319941995199619971998199

27、920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182025E2030E2035E200.00Source: International Energy Agency, The World Bank(1) 2025+ projections are under the IEAs Stated Policies (“Base” Case) Scenariobut the vast majority of current energy sources generate CO2 emissions,

28、which is accelerating climate changeWhile human populations around the world have benefited in many ways from fossil fuel-based forms of energy, the main non-monetary cost has been the resulting generation of carbon dioxide emissions. Global energy-related CO2 emissions have risen in lockstep with t

29、he worlds increasing consumption of fossil fuel-based energy over the last century and remained at a record high of 33.3 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2019 (albeit flat with 2018 levels) based on IEA data.Although the IEA forecasts global energy-related CO2 emissions to fall by an unprecedented rate of 8% YoY

30、in 2020 (forecast as of April 2020), this is due to a sharp drop in energy demand and economic activity from the COVID-19 pandemic rather than any structural change in the way the world consumes energy. In fact, the staggering level of global slowdown that drove such a decline in emissions only goes

31、 to show the radical changes in technology and consumer behavior needed to revert this trend.Even assuming all countries that are part of the 2015 Paris Agreement adhere to their pledges/targets and policies (and very few are doing so), the global temperature is still tracking to rise by 2.5-3.0C, a

32、ccording to Climate Action Tracker. This is also consistent with the IEAs Stated Policies Scenario and EIAs Reference Case (see Figure 3).Figure 3: Historical and Forecast Global Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions Currently Tracking vs. Where World Needs to Be to Limit Rise in TemperaturesSource: Climat

33、e Action Tracker, International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)Consequently, there is a broadened sense of urgency to reduce CO2 emissions, which requires efforts on a global scale to lower both carbon intensity of the

34、energy supplied and energy intensity of the economy.According to the MCC Berlins live carbon countdown clock, at the current trajectory of emissions, the world has just over 7 years and over 25 years until warming reaches 1.5C and 2C, respectively. In order to limit warming below 2C, scientists proj

35、ect global energy-related CO2 emissions need to fall 25% by 2030, halve by 2040, and be 20% over the next 20 years to levels not seen since before 1970 (see Figure 5), an immense task against the rising tides of global population and an emerging middle class in developing countries.Herein lies the “

36、global energy dilemma”: keep relying on fossil fuel production and consumption to meet the worlds increasing energy demands, but accelerate global warming and climate change; or remove the worlds dependence on fossil fuels at a great cost, but risk stifling global economic growth and wellbeing.Figur

37、e 4: Global Carbon Intensity IEAs Stated Policies Scenario vs. SDS (1990-2040E)60Figure 5: Global Per Capita Energy Consumption IEAs Stated Policies Scenario vs. SDS (1971-2040E)55 IEA Stated Policies Scenario50 IEA Sustainable Development Scenario45 4035302.00IEA Stated Policies ScenarioIEA Sustain

38、able Development ScenarioEnergy Consumption (Tonnes of Oil Equivalent per Capita)1.90Global Carbon Intensity (Gt CO 2/MJ)1.801.701.601.50251.40201.301971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 20162040ESource: International Energy Agency, The World BankSource: International Energy Agency, The World

39、 BankFigure 6 provides a birds eye view of where the world stands today vs. where it needs to be by 2040 (based on the IEAs SDS) in terms of energy consumption per capita and carbon intensity. Both need to fall meaningfully against the challenge that energy consumption across much of the non-OECD/em

40、erging market world is still well below OECD/developed countries.Figure 6: Carbon Intensity and Energy Consumption per Capita by Country and Globally in 2018 vs. Where World Needs to Be by 2040(1)Source: International Energy Agency, The World Bank(1) 2040 projection is under the IEAs Sustainable Dev

41、elopment ScenarioIn effect, reducing carbon intensity requires generating the same energy while not burning carbonTo appreciate the scale of our energy dilemma, we first need to note that CO2 is a natural byproduct of the combustion process, which is the burning of the carbon that is in fossil fuels

42、. In fact, combustion of any organic matter releases CO2, including wood, manure, animal fat, coal, petroleum products, and natural gas.While the amount of CO2 emissions generated varies by fuel type, it is a “constant” that is not mitigatable as long as the fuel is consumed. For example, compared t

43、o natural gas, coal generates nearly double the CO2 emission per unit of energy when burned. Figure 7 shows energy density (i.e., heat content to weight/volume) to combustion emission factor for the various fuel types. This makes abundantly clear the benefits of switching from coal to gas in the pow

44、er sector, namely higher energy content, lower carbon intensity, and one that is also supported by economics in most countries.However, to meaningfully reduce carbon intensity in a way that mitigates global warming, we need to consume an increasing share of zero carbon fuels such as renewables (e.g.

45、, wind and solar), nuclear, and perhaps increasingly in the future, hydrogen.Figure 7: Energy Density vs. CO2 Stationary Combustion Emission Factor by Fuel TypeSource: United States Environmental Protection Agency, Credit Suisse researchTransition Requires Demand-Side SolutionsCombustion accounts fo

46、r the vast majority of energy-related lifecycle emissionsGiven CO2 is a natural byproduct of the combustion process, the IEA estimates that the extraction, processing, and transportation parts of the hydrocarbon supply chain (i.e., well-to- end-user) are responsible for just 20% and 25% of the full

47、lifecycle emissions for oil and gas production, respectively (see Figure 8). The more responsible, efficient energy sources/operators account for an even lower 10-15% of the lifecycle emissions. Thus, the vast majority of the oil and gas lifecycle emissions occur during the direct use of energy.Ther

48、e is certainly room for the oil and gas industry to reduce their emissions, particularly the elimination of flaring, methane leakage, and CO2 venting, which collectively account for 43% of “well-to-end-user” emissions for oil and an even higher 68% for gas (see Figure 9). Other long- term mitigation

49、 efforts include the electrification of drilling and completion activities and utilization of carbon capture technology. For example, Chevron and Algonquin Power & Utilities recently announced a four-year agreement to co-develop renewable power projects to provide electricity to strategic assets acr

50、oss Chevrons global portfolio.Figure 8: Combustion Emissions vs. Oil & Gas Lifecycle EmissionsFigure 9: Components of “Well-to-End-User” Emissions by Fuel 600Lifecycle Emissions (kg CO2-eq/Boe)5004003002001000Combustion EmissionsOilGas100%Well-to-End User EmissionsCombustionaccounts for80% and 75%of

51、 oil and gas lifecycle emissions,respectively.90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Methane Leakage 34%Venting 7%Transport 6%Downstream methane 20%Transport 9%Upstream methane 41%Refining35%Energy for extraction 26%Flaring 9%Energy for extraction12%OilGas Source: International Energy Agency, Credit Suisse es

52、timatesSource: International Energy Agency, Credit Suisse estimatesConsequently, progress on the energy transition depends first and foremost on lowering fossil fuel demandDespite the substantial pressure being put on oil and gas companies, even if upstream companies eliminate 100% of their controll

53、able emissions, it would not be impactful enough to curb global warming. Moreover, if oil and gas producers reduce supply when the world still relies on fossil fuel-based energy sources, it could result in an outsized price response, which only over time would meaningfully dampen demand.It is also i

54、mportant to note that fully or majority government-owned national oil companies (NOCs) accounted for over half of global oil and gas production in 2018, according to the IEA. Thus, without a commensurate curtailment in fossil fuel demand, excess pressure on the public operators may have the unintend

55、ed consequences of ceding market share to other market participants with operations that are less transparent and more difficult to assert public accountability.Efforts to reduce carbon intensity and energy intensity need to come from every aspect of the modern worldCoal, oil, and natural gas accoun

56、ted for 27%, 31%, and 23%, respectively, of global energy demand in 2018 (similar to the energy mix in 2010). Meanwhile, the IEAs SDS projections show demand for coal, oil, and natural gas needs to fall by 62%, 32%, and 3% by 2040 from 2018 levels, implying annual declines of 4.3%, 1.8%, and 0.2%, r

57、espectively. However, as total energy consumption also needs to fall by 0.3% per annum under the SDS case, oil and gas would still make up 47% of the worlds hydrocarbon needs, with coals share dropping more significantly to 11% in 2040. To be sure, these figures are far from the current reality, whi

58、ch only goes to show the scale of the challenge at hand.Below we provide a summary of global demand for each of the aforementioned fuels based on 2018 actuals:Coal: 64% of the demand came from the power sector, which is also the area experiencing the most pressure to decarbonize given competitive ec

59、onomics to switch to cleaner gas or renewable power plants. Industrial use accounted for another 21%, which is used for steel-making as well as heat generation in the concrete and paper industries. Given the high temperatures required, the industrial uses of coal are more difficult to mitigate.Oil:

60、Transportation accounted for 58% of oil demand, of which 25% was used in personal vehicles, 21% for freight and services, and 12% for aviation. Electrification of transport is happening primarily in the light-duty segment, which will reduce oil demand (and hopefully increase renewable-generated rath