年中報告之中國

1、This Year, Next YearChina Media Forecasts2020 Summer EditionCONTENT 07 12 131516InternetE-commerce 11SocialSearchOnline Video 14In-Feed Adveritising Programmatic Buying 25 272728Traditional TV 17Outdoor 21RadioPrintNewspapers Magazines03 05Executive Summary TablesDuring Q1 2020, the ad revenue of Al

2、ibaba, Tencent, Baidu, JD and Pinduoduo accounted for 85% share of total online ad market.5 The Matthew Effect accelerated industrial integration and elimination. The epidemic boosted the concentration of users and traffic, strengthened the leading position of internet in China media market and made

3、 leading media organizations stronger. This situation also drove traditional media to rethink, thus further advanced the reformation and innovation of the media industrys supply-side.In the post-epidemic period, e-commerce live streaming with explosive growth became effective touchpoints and convers

4、ion points for consumer communication. Participation of many brands, entrepreneurs and official media brought impetus. Whether e-commerce live streaming will become a new normal in the future or not, whether it will be a flash in the pan or a new component of the media matrix, it still needs to be t

5、ested by the market.Consumers:self-defining a balance betweenpersonality and rationalityThanks to information equality, consumers aremore independently pursuing what they likeE-commerce and news platforms achieved personalized content push. The method of delivering information is affected by the mod

6、e of online content distribution, changing from centralization to decentralization then to re-centralization. Users do not simply gain information passively but have more choices when it comes content and are easier to get content to instantly suit their demands. In terms of product choice, consumer

7、s have more information sources to get to know and to compare product features and value, and therefore choose the most cost-efficient product according to their criteria. The target groups with certain interests emerged accordingly: to choose on-demand content according to their preferences, to com

8、municate with people from various culture circles on different platforms, and even to buy derivative products within certain interest groups on vertical platforms consumers are able to demonstrate their initiative on making choice. In addition, along with consumers growing initiative and self-consci

9、ousness, media channels also optimized and upgraded their logic of content distribution: the emergence of short video and social media lowed the threshold of content production and distribution as well; lite programs and applications accelerated the efficiency of information delivery and created mor

10、e suitable applicable contexts, etc. Therefore, consumers pursuit of personalization could be realized.The post-epidemic consumption behavior tends to be more rationalAffected by the epidemic, income of residents during Q1 2020 fluctuated. From January to May 2020, monthly bank savings increased 8%

11、increased 8%+ YoY, reaching a height of 10.4% in May6. In addition, regarding to personal deposit, YoY growth was 13% between January and May7. Retaliatory deposit emerges ahead of retaliatory consumption which reflects that peoples consumption attitude tends to be rational under the situation of ne

12、w normal: in pursuit of convenience, efficiency and eager to have a sense of possession. It can also explain why VIP membership and consumption coupon are popular.The spread of coronavirus worldwide has made overseas online shopping and purchasing abroad seem nearly impossible. After experiencing an

13、d witnessing different anti-epidemic measures domestically and abroad, most consumers strengthened their sense of national pride and enhanced their confidence in domestic brands. Especially time-honored brands proactively chose to leverage this advantage to do marketing with elements of nostalgia an

14、d crossover.Executive SummaryMacro economy:national economy under pressure, new breakthrough expectedThe new normal of national economyThe outbreak of the COVID-19 has had a significantly effect on international order and the complex relations between major powers, which has disturbed the global eco

15、nomic fundamentals and weakened the expectation for global economy development. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that global GDP will drop by 5%1, leading to the worst recession since World War II .China achieved initial success against the epidemic during the

16、first half of this year, while the overall social economic development is still facing unprecedented challenges. Negative GDP growth rarely occurs and no GDP goal is set for the situation this year because macro economy faces so many internal and external uncertainties and growth tends to be harder

17、under the objective of ensuring six priorities and stability in six areas for steady economic momentum2.Since work has resumed, improvements have occurred and this is reflected from data of supply-side: up to June, industrial production has recovered to some extent; the manufacturing industry PMI re

18、bounded since March and continued to be above the threshold separating contraction from expansion for four months; the non-manufacturing PMI also embraced recovery for four consecutive months3. The policy of stabilizing growth exerted its influence and retail sales of consumer goods kept slowing the

19、 pace of decline; under the boost of relieving the restriction of peoples mobility, stimulating consumption and three public holidays, consumption started to recover. While comparatively there still lacked power to recover the demand- side, and consumption needed more time to recover. Influenced by

20、the international situation, exports still suffered a depression. The imbalance of supply and demand will encumber the overall economic resurgence, and the growth of demand will still under pressure due to the regional re-emergence of the epidemic in China. The long-term fight against the epidemic w

21、ill be the new normal for the remainder of this year and likely for the next two years therefore, both business operation and peoples daily lives will have to adapt to such environment.Due to macro economy pressures, advertisers have become more prudent towards media investment. International brands

22、 are finding it hard to gain profits from support policies and macro stimulation, and as a result many brands have cut their budgets or suspended or delayed future media investment, preferring to wait and see.Strengthen development of new infrastructure and uplift market confidenceIn early March, th

23、e central government declared a series of new policies to accelerate new infrastructure construction and to enhance the development of 5G, AI, Industrial Internet of Things, smart city, education, medical care and so on. All of these based on three aspects of infrastructure in information, convergen

24、ce and innovation. The driving force of the construction of new infrastructure on domestic demands shows its time-lag effect when extended to consumers. Whilenew infrastructure construction does have direct and positive effect to ensure employment, the market entities, and the stable supply chain. E

25、specially the construction of 5G in a large scale and its popularity will boost and put the integration of national broadcasting network and 5G into practice. The development of technologies, such as VR, 8K, AI and IoT, further energizes the prosperity of the industrial chain, meanwhile, brings more

26、 opportunities to brand marketing.Media and media consumption:digital economy accelerates its penetration and expansion. Content is king which reinforces concentration on top mediaThe epidemic accelerates the development and consolidation of online mediaconsumption habitsParallel to the outbreak of

27、the epidemic, consumers were relying heavily on online shopping, helping the internet sector achieve the dividend of users by chance. Seen from the financial report of Q1 2020, e-commerce, long and short-form video, and social media platforms achieved higher growth, and theres still room for top dig

28、ital media to increase their ad revenues. E-commerce, especially fresh food e-commerce and daily life service apps, penetrates all aspects of life online purchase and home delivery services for daily necessaries, pharmaceuticals and takeout, remote working, cloud conference and online education are

29、in hot pursuit, and the service supply-side has become digitized. Online shopping has accelerated to become the predominant purchase channel, leading online and offline to speed up to integrate. Meanwhile, the epidemic keeps bubbling up and anti-epidemic requirements compel people to change their wa

30、y of living and working. It makes the scenarios of home economy and cloud application become more abundant, and new demands will motivate the creation of new tools and new business models.Post - epidemic media consumption trends back to normal, resource concentration to top media further strengthene

31、d, while live streaming as popular as an emerging modelThe media traffic enjoyed a peak during the outbreak of the epidemictraditional TV, OTT, social media, online entertainment, online game and fitness apps saw an outstanding performance. Certain mid-level online segments such as fresh food e-comm

32、erce, online education and online medical care also grew significantly. In the post-epidemic period, along with social life returning back to normal, some habits formed during the outbreak have remained, and in the meantime, consumers media consumption habits have reverted back to being rational.Bef

33、ore the outbreak of the epidemic, the trend of market concentration had already appeared: during the first-run period, traffic of top-10-drama was 6 times larger than that of non-top dramas; and whats more, in terms of rerun, top-10- drama also as 13 times as non-top dramas in traffic4. During the e

34、pidemic, audience had more time to choose their preference and the shift of attention happened according to content.summary:Thanks to the efficient and successful control of the epidemic, it is estimated that China advertising spending will exceed RMB 626.2 billion, in 2020 dropping down by 2.8%, fa

35、r better than the expectation of 11.8% on global market. Chinas economy has stepped into the resumption stage, support and stimulus policies are gradually taking effect, therefore, next year is forecast to achieve a considerate positive growth.From another point of view, even though this black swan

36、event brought enormous negative effect; however, from the upgrading of practitioners to products, from the reshuffle of business operations and management philosophies, the epidemic is also a catalyst that unexpectedly accelerates industrial change and innovation. Never waste a good crisis. There is

37、 no making without breaking, thus there will be a power of integration generated by the market to improve efficiency.Note:World Bank: World Economic Outlook , 4th June 2020; International Monetary: Economic Outlook , 24th June 2020Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee Conference put forward

38、stability in six areas for steady economic momentum on July 2018 for the rst time, which meant to ensure stability in employment, nancial operations, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment, and expectations. Then it further put forward six priorities on April 2020 for the rst time, w

39、hich meant to ensure security in job, basic living needs, operations of market entities, food and energy security, stable industrial and supply chains, and the normal functioning of primary- level governmentsThe Operational Condition of China Purchasing Managers Index in June 2020 by National Bureau

40、 of StatisticsDue to iResearch conducted revision in 2019, no completed data for this year could be provided, so the drama data cited is for 2018Source from 2019 Financial Annual Report and 2020 Q1 Report, Baidu data includes iQiyi, ByteDance is excludedThe Peoples Bank of China: Monthly Financial S

41、tatistics Report , January to May 2020The Peoples Bank of China: Monetary Statistics Overviewonly brands that are advocated by people will have lasting trafficAgainst the background of the new normal, consumers still need to face their own choice of consumption, and they still prefer to choose the b

42、rand that they consider to be authoritative and trustworthy, no matter what their media consumption or product/service choices are. The higher brand perception and experience, the higher acceptance consumers will have, bringing the greater conversion rate into actual sales. Therefore, brands need to

43、 demonstrate their core value and deliver their brand concept sustainably by advertising, PR events, services and so on; this is still the solid foundation to gain rapid growth during the recovery period. Thus, brands should shift their attention from simply focusing on traffic to intensive and rede

44、fined brand building, step from homogenization to differentiation, and move from price competition to value competition. To gain insights from consumer needs and to build smooth communication channels to consumers are still the key components of media strategy.Executive SummaryChina Media Forecasts

45、2020 Summer Edition 3 4Internet55,35586,336132,982193,209245,261318,116398,795477,065496,972551,639Outdoor34,74337,05339,12842,06349,79861,99572,00563,78346,30648,344Newspapers37,82835,93728,96519,81210,7787,6706,2515,6034,2024,202Media, CNY m, netTVRadio2012120,30215,9532021f68,0859,4132020f67,0789

46、,404201982,20412,882201886,29714,037201791,99215,5562016100,48714,5832015111,52816,2942014122,02216,9902013124,51216,496Media, USD m, netTVRadioYOY% changeTVRadio% shares of mediaTVRadioInternet20.2%27.8%38.1%49.6%57.7%63.8%68.7%74.0%79.4%80.6%Outdoor12.7%11.9%11.2%10.8%11.7%12.4%12.4%9.9%7.4%7.1%Ne

47、wspapers13.8%11.6%8.3%5.1%2.5%1.5%1.1%0.9%0.7%0.6%Magazines9,9849,9848,4966,5084,5233,5723,2333,0412,3292,334Magazines3.6%3.2%2.4%1.7%1.1%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.3%Media total274,165310,318348,584389,415425,430498,902580,620644,578626,292684,017Media total100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%10

48、0.0%100.0%2021f10.0%1.4%2020f10.7%1.5%201912.8%2.0%201814.9%2.4%201718.4%3.1%201623.6%3.4%201528.6%4.2%201435.0%4.9%201340.1%5.3%201243.9%5.8%Internet52.1%56.0%54.0%45.3%26.9%29.7%25.4%19.6%4.2%11.0%Outdoor17.5%6.6%5.6%7.5%18.4%24.5%16.1%-11.4%-27.4%4.4%Newspapers-6.7%-5.0%-19.4%-31.6%-45.6%-28.8%-1

49、8.5%-10.4%-25.0%0.0%Internet8,25312,87319,82728,80736,56847,43059,45971,12974,09882,248Outdoor5,1805,5255,8346,2717,4259,24310,7369,5106,9047,208Newspapers5,6405,3584,3192,9541,6071,144932835627627Magazines7.9%0.0%-14.9%-23.4%-30.5%-21.0%-9.5%-5.9%-23.4%0.2%Magazines1,4891,4891,267970674533482453347

50、348Media total YOY% change12.6%13.2%12.3%11.7%9.2%17.3%16.4%11.0%-2.8%9.2%Media total USD m40,87746,26851,97358,06163,43174,38586,56996,10593,379101,9862021f1.5%0.1%2020f-18.4%-27.0%2019-4.7%-8.2%2018-6.2%-9.8%2017-8.5%6.7%2016-9.9%-10.5%2015-8.6%-4.1%2014-2.0%3.0%20133.5%3.4%20126.2%10.7%2021f10,15

51、11,4032020f10,0011,402201912,2561,921201812,8672,093201713,7162,319201614,9822,174201516,6292,429201418,1932,533201318,5652,459201217,9372,379exchange rate at 6.71Source: Internet and Ourdoor: financial reports from listed companies TV, Print and Radio: National Radio and Television Administration,

52、State Administration for Market RegulatoinNote: 2020f and 2021f: forecasts by GroupM in April 2020TablesTablesChina Media Forecasts 2020 Summer Edition 5 6InternetCrisis and opportunity bythe black swanThe epidemic outbreaks in early 2020 and the long-lasting state of anti-epidemic control directly

53、advanced the progress of converting non-internet users to mobile netizens and sped up digitalization among younger and older users, and lower tier market users, different from previous low threshold of converting PC users to mobile ones. After that, fewer demographic dividends can be obtained from t

54、he increment and the overall growth of netizens will keep slow down.There was a short-term dividend brought about by the core netizens whose temporary demands were aroused by quarantine. So, the digital giants took the opportunity to enhance the Matthew Effect by virtue of their well-prepared infras

55、tructure and ecosystem. However, the traffic that initially increased will shrink, and issues such as increment preservation and competition for other new users tend to be obvious. Along with fading in traffic dividend, the overall competitiveness of the industry will remain fierce in China due to t

56、he improvement of users ability to information screening, the problem of economic development, market resources scarcity and decreasing fault tolerance for strategic investment.The opportunity and the crisis both brought by the epidemic are the two sides of the same coin. Although the epidemic has o

57、ffset benefits brought by the growing netizens, it is a valuable opportunity for the industry, motivated by both supports and demands on offline services. One is the governments support on new information infrastructure and the accelerated development of Internet of Things. The other is the unrealiz

58、ed high-quality of life, showing good signs of the development in enjoyable consumption and related vertical fields. The internet industry will move from the phase of high-speed growth to high-quality development.Quality and abundanceof content will greatly affectthe traffic flowAs the competitive s

59、ituation of traffic tends to stabilize and platforms are equipped with more diversified content, users are likely to make the best use of their limited time on the content that interested them more. Besides, the content delivery efficiency is improved because of developments in technology so that us

60、ers pursuit of content tends to be proactive, and traffic flow moves from choosing channels to choosing content. In addition, content is not limited by text, picture, or video, the brand image is also a part of content. As a result, the giants pay more attention in building IP so as to fully leverag