首都華盛頓地區(qū)狀況報告2021

1、STATE OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN 2021:WHERE WORKERS LIVE AND LABORWHERE CAPITAL REGION WORKERS LIVE AND LABORAuthorsJaclene BegleyFannie MaeLeah Brooks, Faculty DirectorCenter for Washington Area Studies & Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Administration, The George Washington University

2、Brian J. McCabeGeorgetown UniversityJenny SchuetzBrookings InstitutionStan VeugerAmerican Enterprise InstituteThis report is a collaborative effort from researchers at the American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Institution, Fannie Mae, Georgetown University and the George Washington University. We

3、 are particularly grateful to the Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Administration and the George Washington Institute for Public Policy for their support in reinvigorating the Center for Washington Area Studies over the past three years. The views reflected here are our own and donot

4、reflect those of Fannie Mae or the Federal Housing Finance Administration. Any errors in this report are the sole responsibility of the reports authors.STATE OF THE CAPITAL REGION 2021: WHERE WORKERS LIVE AND LABORIn 2020, we experienced a year of unprecedented economic change as the pandemic reshap

5、ed work and home overnight. Cities and metropolitan regions are shaped by home, work, and our desire for proximity to jobs, amenities, friends, neighbors, and coworkers. The Capital Regions experience is also shaped by a broader economic restructuring that occurred over the past 20 years. In this ye

6、ars State of the Capital Region report, we explore our metropolitan labor market, focusing on the industry mix, where jobs are located, and where workers live. We highlight the toll the recent pandemic has taken on the regions employment, particularly focusing on the leisure and hospitality sector a

7、nd lower income workers.We analyze jobs and workers by looking at the entire Capital Region, and by focusing on patterns across groups of jurisdictions. The metropolitan area includes the District of Columbia (the District), as well as counties in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. Our analysis

8、explores differences between urban, suburban, and exurban locations, as shown in Figure I.1. Urban jurisdictions are dark blue, suburban jurisdictions are light blue, and exurban jurisdictions are green.STATE OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN 2021:WHERE WORKERS LIVE AND LABORFigure I.1: Urban, Suburban and E

9、xurban Jurisdictions in the Capital RegionSource: Census Bureau, 2010 jurisdictional boundaries.With those definitions in mind, Figure I.2 offers an overview of where workers live and work across the region. We show each jurisdictions share of the workforce and share of employment. We define a juris

10、dictions share of the workforce as the total number of workers living in a jurisdiction, divided by the total number of workers in the Capital Region. In contrast, a jurisdictions share of employment refers to the number of (pre-COVID) physical workers in that jurisdiction, again divided by the tota

11、l number of physical workers in the Capital Region.Not surprisingly, the four largest jurisdictions in the region by populationthe District, Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince Georges countiesaccount for the largest share of both jobs and workers. But the balance between jobs and workers varies across

12、jurisdictions. In urban jurisdictions, there is a greater share of local employment than residential workforce. For example, the District has over 20 percent of the regions employment, and just over ten percent of theregions workforce. In contrast, suburban and exurban jurisdictions have a larger sh

13、are of workforce than employment. Prince Georges County, for example, has around ten percent of the regions jobs and 15 percent of the regions workforce.Figure I.2: The Majority of Jobs and Workers in the Region Are Concentrated in a Few Jurisdictions: The District Has the Highest Employment Share a

14、nd Fairfax County the Highest Workforce ShareShare of employment and share of workforceSource: LODES 7.5 2018 data. Data show the share of jobs (employment) and employed residents (workforce) by jurisdiction, relative to the entire Capital Region.STATE OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN 2021:WHERE WORKERS LIV

15、E AND LABORThe rest of the report delves into where workers live and work in more detail. Chapter 1 explores the mix of industries present in the Capital Region. The region is best known as the seat of the federal government, and public sector jobs are a large share of the regions labor market. Howe

16、ver, professional and business services overtook the public sector as the regions largest industry in the 1990s. This transformation occurred because the number of other jobs increased, not because the number of government jobs fell.Next, we focus on job clusters in the region. Chapter 2 shows that

17、central job locations predominate, particularly in the downtown parts of the District. Other large job clusters are along major transportation corridors, such as I-270 to the north and I-95 to the south towards Richmond. There is also considerable variation in the industry mix across job clusters. W

18、hile professional and business services jobs are highly concentrated in downtown Washington, the central job cluster in the District has a more diverse industry mix than the large suburban job hubs.Finally, Chapter 3 turns to where workers live, with a particular focus on low-income workers. We see

19、that low-income workers live throughout the region, but comprise a larger share of the working population in the exurbs, the east side of the District, and Prince Georges County. Notably, the share of low-income workers increases with distance to the city center, suggesting higher commuting burdens

20、and limited public transportation options for these same workers.Our report also sheds light on the recent effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. While no industry has been unscathed by the crisis, the leisure and hospitality sector has been markedly the hardest hit. As our chapters discuss in turn, the

21、number of leisure and hospitality jobs remains far from pre-pandemic levels. Prior to the pandemic, leisure and hospitality workers were already more likely to be living in lower income neighborhoods.Job location, clusters, and industry mix have important implications for where we live, our commutin

22、g costs, our housing expenses, and our ability to be economically resilient. Our earlier reports note that the Capital Region housing supply is growing most rapidly in the suburbs, yet in this report we show that many employers clearly value proximity to the city center. We have also documented risi

23、ng income inequality in the region in the past, and we again see disparities in where lower income workers and those in the leisure and hospitality sector work and live. As we move towards recovery, policymakers must grapple with a pandemic that amplified and broadened these ongoing challenges faced

24、 by households and employers in the region.TABLE OF CONTENTSPART I: WHERE WORKERS LIVE AND WORK? 1Chapter 1:What Kinds Of Jobs Are In The Capital Region?Figure 1.1 Capital Region Workers Are Disproportionately Employed in Government and Professional and Business Services2Figure 1.2 Professional and

25、Business Services Recently Became the Capital Regions Largest Industry3Figure 1.3 The Absolute Number of Federal Government Jobs in the Capital Region Has Been Stable for Thirty Years4Figure 1.4 Federal Government Employment as a Share of Capital Region Jobs Has Declined Sharply Over the Past Thirty

26、 Years5Figure 1.5 The COVID-19 Crisis Dramatically Reduced Employment in the Capital Regions Leisure and Hospitality Industry6Chapter 2: Where Are Job Clusters In The Capital Region?Figure 2.1 Jobs Cluster Near the CBD and Along Suburban Transportation Corridors8Figure 2.2 Job Concentration Is Highe

27、st Near the Central Business District9Figure 2.3 Job Concentration Is Highest Near the CBD, and Varies by Industry10Figure 2.4 Within Job Clusters, Industry Mix Varies by Place11Chapter 3: Where Do Workers Live In The Capital Region?Figure 3.1 Low-Wage Workers Live in All Parts of the Capital Region

28、13Figure 3.2 Low-Wage Workers Comprise a Large Share of Workers in Neighborhoods East of the District and the Exurbs14Figure 3.3 The Share of Low-Wage Workers in a Neighborhood Increases as Distance to the Central City Grows 15Figure 3.4 Lower-Income Neighborhoods Are Home to a Higher Share of Worke

29、rs in the Leisure and Hospitality Industry16Conclusion: How Will Covid Impact These Patterns?17PART II: HOUSING AND DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS THROUGHOUT THE CAPITAL REGION 20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 District of Columbia 22MarylandCalvert County 24Charles County 26Frederick County 28Montgomery County 30

30、Prince Georges County 32VirginiaAlexandria City 34Arlington County 36Clarke County 38Culpeper County 40Fairfax city 42Fairfax County 44Falls Church city 46Fauquier County 48Fredericksburg city 50Loudoun County 52Manassas city 54Manassas Park city 56Prince William County 58Rappahannock County 60Spots

31、ylvania County 62Stafford County 64Warren County 66West VirginiaJefferson County 68PART III: SOURCES AND METHODS 69STATE OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN 2021:WHERE WORKERS LIVE AND LABORPART 1: WHERE WORKERS LIVE AND LABORCHAPTER 1:WHAT KINDS OF JOBS ARE IN THE CAPITAL REGION?While the Capital Region is th

32、e seat of the federal government, federal employees do not dominate the regions labor market. At the start of 2020, all government employmentfederal, state, and localaccounted for only 21 percent of total regional employment, compared to 15 percent nationwide.The Capital Regions public sector employ

33、ment share is large relative to the national average, but it is not the most disproportionately represented employment sector in the region. Figure 1.1 shows employment in different sectors as a share of total regional employment and compares it to national employment shares. The regions dominant in

34、dustry in both absolute and relative terms is the professional and business services industry. It employs 23 percent of all workers, well above the nationwide average of 14 percent. Other services are overrepresented as well, at six percent instead of four percent nationally. 1Among industries where

35、 the Capital Regions share is lower than the national share, manufacturing and trade, transportation, and utilities stand out. The manufacturing industry, in particular, is almost entirely absent from the Capital Region. It employs less than two percent of the regions workers, despite accounting for

36、 over eight percent of nationwide employment.Figure 1.1: Capital Region Workers Are Disproportionately Employed in Government and Professional and Business ServicesShare of workers by sector in the Capital Region, December 2020Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2020. Current Employment Statistics: E

37、mployment, Hours and EarningsNational; and State and Area Employment, Hours and Earnings“Other Services” from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: “The Other Services (except Public Administration) sector comprises establishments engaged in providing services not specifically provided for elsewhere in th

38、e classification system. Establishments in this sector are primarily engaged in activities, such as equipment and machinery repairing, promoting or administering religious activities, grantmaking, advocacy, and providing drycleaning and laundry services, personal care services,death care services, p

39、et care services, photofinishing services, temporary parking services, and dating services.” See ht HYPERLINK /iag/tgs/iag81.htm tps:/iag/tgs/iag81.htmSTATE OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN 2021:WHERE WORKERS LIVE AND LABORThe dominant role of professional and business services in the region is a recent, 21

40、st-century phenomenon. As Figure1.2 demonstrates, the public sector was the uncontested largest source of employment in the Capital Region until the turn of the century. In the early 1990s, it employed as many as 27 percent of all workers while professional and business services were home to just ov

41、er 15 percent of the workforce.The industrial composition of the regional labor market has evolved in a number of other ways over the past quarter century too. The trade, transportation, and utilities share of regional employment has gone down by four percentage points, from 16 to 12 percent. Educat

42、ion and health, as well as leisure and hospitality, have come to play a more important role in the Capital Regions labor market. These two industries combined now account for about a quarter of total employment, an increase of almost ten percentage points in under thirty years.Figure 1.2: Profession

43、al and Business Services Recently Became the Capital Regions Largest IndustryShare of workers by industry in the Capital Region, 19902020Bureau of Labor Statistics 19902020. Current Employment Statistics: Employment, Hours and EarningsNational; and State and Area Employment, Hours and Earnings. The

44、five industries with thelargest share of employment are in color; all remaining industries are in gray.Public sector employment has declined as a share of total Capital Region employment, largely because the federal workforce has remained relatively stable as other industries have grown. As Figure 1

45、.3 shows, the absolute number of federal government jobs in the region has fluctuated around 350,000 since the early 1990s. On the other hand, total employment across all other industries increased over this period, leading to the substantial decline in the share of federal government jobs.Figure 1.

46、3: The Absolute Number of Federal Government Jobs in the Capital Region Has Been Stable for Thirty YearsFederal government employees in 1000s, Capital RegionSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics 19902020. Current Employment Statistics: Employment, Hours and EarningsNational; and State and Area Employme

47、nt, Hours and Earnings.STATE OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN 2021:WHERE WORKERS LIVE AND LABORFigure 1.4 highlights this development. It shows a decline in the share of federal government jobs from more than 16 percent to around 11 percent. This five percentage point change accounts for the entire decline

48、in regional federal employment. Nationwide, the share of employees employed by the federal employment also declined.2 The outsized role of federal employment in the Capital Region labor market makes these changes more important here.The federal government has nevertheless remained more important to

49、the regions economy than these numbers might suggest. In recent decades, some work that would previously have been carried out by public-sector workers has moved to the private sector. As a consequence, workers who work exclusively for the government are counted as private workers in the professiona

50、l and business services sector. There are, for example, large private consulting companies that exclusively serve federal clients.Figure 1.4: Federal Government Employment as a Share of Capital Region Jobs Has Declined Sharply Over the Past Thirty YearsFederal employment as a share of total employme

51、nt, Capital Region and United StatesSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics 19902020. Current Employment Statistics: Employment, Hours and EarningsNational; and State and Area Employment, Hours and Earnings.This decline in federal employments national share holds true even when we look at the country as

52、a whole without the Capital Region.Turning from these long-term developments to our current moment, Figure 1.5 depicts the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on regional employment by industry. While jobs were destroyed across the Capital Regions economy, the impact of the crisis was felt most harshly in

53、 the leisure and hospitality sector. This sector, which represented ten percent ofall regional employment prior to the pandemic, has had to face stringent public-health restrictions as well as intense consumer concerns about in-person interactions throughout the crisis.Figure 1.5: The COVID-19 Crisi

54、s Dramatically Reduced Employment in the Capital Regions Leisure and Hospitality IndustryIndustry employment as a share relative to January 2020Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2020. Current Employment Statistics: Employment, Hours and EarningsNational; and State and Area Employment, Hours and Ear

55、nings.As a result, at the nadir of the labor market crisis, April and May of 2020, employment in the leisure and hospitality sector was only just above half of what it had been at the start of the year. Now, roughly one year into the crisis, employment in this sector is at three-quarters of its Janu

56、ary 2020 level.Despite a significant recovery during the summer and fall, by December 2020 only one sectorconstructionhad returned to its January 2020 employment. As the region works to return to normalcy, its labor market still faces a long road to full recovery.STATE OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN 2021:

57、WHERE WORKERS LIVE AND LABORCHAPTER 2:WHERE ARE JOB CLUSTERS IN THE CAPITAL REGION?We are not only interested in the number of jobs in the region, but also where those jobs are located. The spatial pattern of employment in the Capital Region reflects historic development patterns: District neighborh

58、oods near the White House continue to be the largest employment cluster in the Capital Region, with secondary clusters along main transportation corridors in the suburbs. The industry composition of these job clusters varies considerably.As Figure 2.1 shows, the Districts Central Business District (

59、CBD) and areas nearby are very job rich. Outside of the District, job clusters map closely onto major transportation corridors: northwest along route 355/I-270 throughMontgomery County, west along Route 7 and I-66 through Arlington, Fairfax, and Loudoun counties, and south along I-95 through Prince

60、William and Stafford counties. For employers, choosing a central location allows them to draw customers and workers from throughout the Capital Region. Locating along highways and Metrorail corridors also makes businesses more accessible, even at a greater distance from the CBD.Red lines: MetroOrang