項目管理 Managing Risk.ppt

Chapter Seven: Managing Risk,Great deeds are usually wrought at great risk. -Herodotus, Greek historian,Overview綜述,In the context of projects, risk is the chance that an undesirable event will occur and the consequences of all its possible outcomes. Project risks are those events that, if they materialize, can delay or kill a project. (207-2-4) The cost impact of a risk event in the project is less if the event occurs earlier rather than later.(207-4-4)項目中風(fēng)險事件發(fā)生的越早，它的成本影響也就越小。,Risk Event Graph 風(fēng)險事件圖,設(shè)計階段,生產(chǎn)樣品階段,什么是風(fēng)險？,任何可能出現(xiàn)的條件或事件，一但發(fā)生，對項目會造成損害 風(fēng)險是不確定的條件或事件 風(fēng)險管理的目的是使風(fēng)險對項目的影響最小 今天的風(fēng)險可能是明天的問題（麻煩）,經(jīng)濟（融資、成本、地區(qū)GDP水平等） 政治（法律法規(guī)、審批程序、社區(qū)壓力等） 市場（客戶的成熟度、客戶需求變化、市場規(guī)范度等） 技術(shù)（行業(yè)技術(shù)更新速度、技術(shù)領(lǐng)先程度、技術(shù)復(fù)雜程度） 管理（管理者素質(zhì)、員工素質(zhì)、項目管理程序等） 契約（合同漏洞、違約行為等） 環(huán)境（交通運輸、物質(zhì)處理、施工方法等） 自然災(zāi)害,項目風(fēng)險來源,財務(wù)風(fēng)險(Financial Risk) ：超預(yù)算風(fēng)險。 時間風(fēng)險(Time Risk) ：超出進度安排限度的風(fēng)險。這種風(fēng)險比財務(wù)風(fēng)險具有更嚴(yán)重的后果。 設(shè)計風(fēng)險(Design Risk) ：是指由于不能滿足項目的技術(shù)要求而導(dǎo)致的風(fēng)險。由于額外的資源將被使用以滿足項目的技術(shù)性要求，成本溢出將非常巨大。設(shè)計風(fēng)險是三種風(fēng)險中最大的一種。,項目風(fēng)險類型,風(fēng)險數(shù)據(jù)庫,一個全部項目均可使用的中心風(fēng)險數(shù)據(jù)庫幫助會非常大,風(fēng)險類別,高 中 低,低 中 高,高機遇 高風(fēng)險,高機遇 低風(fēng)險,低機遇 高風(fēng)險,低機遇 低風(fēng)險,風(fēng)險評估,機遇評估,項目與風(fēng)險,Risk management attempts to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots that may occur when the project is implemented. Risk management identifies as many risk events as possible (what can go wrong), minimizes their impact (what can be done about the event before the project begins), manages responses to those events that do materialize (contingency plans), and provides contingency funds to cover risk events that actually materialize. (207-3-1)風(fēng)險管理就是盡可能地識別和管理項目實施過程中潛在的和未曾預(yù)見的麻煩。風(fēng)險管理要盡可能多地識別風(fēng)險事件（什么可能會出錯），使他們的影響降到最小（在項目開始之前對于這種事件可以做些什么），管理當(dāng)那些事件出現(xiàn)時對他們的反應(yīng)（應(yīng)變計劃），并提供應(yīng)急基金來應(yīng)付實際出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險事件。,Risk management is a proactive approach rather than reactive. It is a preventive process designed to ensure that surprises are reduced and that negative consequences associated with undesirable events are minimized. (208-3-1),風(fēng)險 /變化控制,項目風(fēng)險 突如其來的變化 未能及時預(yù)測的可能事件發(fā)生 未能及時有效控制的偏差惡化 重大失誤 項目變更 主觀、客觀、甲方、乙方、可能發(fā)生的、無法預(yù)測的 變更導(dǎo)致一些活動的增刪或重新排序，甚至引起工期、成本變化，因而需要修訂項目基準(zhǔn)計劃。 不變是相對的，變是絕對的； 因此，及時有效的應(yīng)變即為風(fēng)險變化控制。,Risk Management Process Step 1: Risk Identification Step 2: Risk Assessment Step 3: Risk Response Development Step 4: Risk Response Control,The Risk Management Process風(fēng)險管理過程,從“救火”和“危機管理”到預(yù)先決策,風(fēng)險管理并不能保證成功但增加成功的概率,7.1: Risk Identification識別風(fēng)險,One common mistake is made early in the risk identification process is to focus on consequences and not on the events that could produce consequences. (209-2-1)風(fēng)險識別階段早期常見的一個錯誤是看中結(jié)果而不是造成這一結(jié)果的事件。 The focus in the beginning should be on risks that can affect the whole project as opposed to a specific section of the project or network. After the macro risks have been identified, specific areas can be checked. (2009-3-1)一開始應(yīng)集中關(guān)注那些對整個項目而不是某個特定部分有影響的風(fēng)險因素。當(dāng)宏觀的風(fēng)險找出后，再對具體方面進行檢查。,抓 住 來 源,Two tools: An effective tool for identifying specific risks is the work breakdown structure (WBS). Use of the WBS reduces the chance a risk event will be missed.(209-3-3)識別具體風(fēng)險的有效工具是工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)，借此可以減少風(fēng)險事件被忽略的可能。 A risk profile is another tool that can help management teams identify and eventually analyze risks. (210-2-1)風(fēng)險說明是幫助管理團隊識別并最終分析風(fēng)險的另外一個工具。 Risk profiles recognize the unique strengths and weaknesses of the firm. Finally, risk profiles address both technical and management risks.(210-3-3)風(fēng)險說明體現(xiàn)企業(yè)獨特強勢和弱勢。最后，風(fēng)險說明突出技術(shù)和管理風(fēng)險。,7.2: Risk Assessment評估風(fēng)險,Scenario analysis is the easiest and most commonly used technique for analyzing risks. Team members assess each risk in terms of: (211-5-1) The undesirable event. All the outcomes of the events occurrence. The magnitude or severity of the events impact. Chances/probability of the event happening. When the event might occur in the project. Interaction with other parts of this or other projects.,情景分析是最簡單和最常用的風(fēng)險分析技術(shù)。團隊成員針對以下幾個方面對每個風(fēng)險進行分析： 不希望發(fā)生的事件； 事件發(fā)生的所有后果； 事件影響的大小或嚴(yán)重性； 事件發(fā)生的可能性/概率； 事件可能會何時在項目中發(fā)生； 和其他項目或本項目的其他部分之間的相互影響。,風(fēng)險評估,幫助我們了解風(fēng)險和識別那些重要的值得處理的風(fēng)險 -風(fēng)險識別 -風(fēng)險分析 -風(fēng)險優(yōu)先級排序,Often organizations find it useful to categorize the severity of different risks into some form of risk assessment matrix. The matrix is typically structured around the impact and likelihood of the risk event. (212-2-1)組織經(jīng)常發(fā)現(xiàn)，將不同風(fēng)險的嚴(yán)重程度進行分類，填入某種形式的風(fēng)險程度評估矩陣中很有用。矩陣一般圍繞著風(fēng)險事件的影響和發(fā)生概率而構(gòu)建起來。 The risk severity matrix provides a basis for prioritizing which risks to address. (212-5-1)風(fēng)險程度矩陣提供了哪些風(fēng)險值得優(yōu)先考慮的依據(jù)。,Risk Response Form 風(fēng)險評估表,Risk Severity Matrix 風(fēng)險嚴(yán)重程度矩陣,項目風(fēng)險樣本清單,風(fēng)險分析,風(fēng)險排序,將風(fēng)險排序以識別必須控制的風(fēng)險 使用概率等和影響信息,Assessments are either subjective or quantitative. (212-6-1)風(fēng)險評價要么是主觀的要么是量化的。 Quantitative methods usually require more detailed analysis of facts and tend to be more reliable. Typical quantitative methods are ratio analysis, probability analysis, sensitivity analysis: (213-6-4)量化方法通常需要對事實進行更詳細(xì)的分析，往往較為可靠。典型的量化方法是:比率分析、概率分析、敏感性分析。,7.2.1: Ratio/Range Analysis 比率/范圍分析,This technique uses data from prior projects that are similar to the proposed project. It assumes a ratio between the old and new project to make a point estimate of time, cost, or technology and a low and high range for the estimate. The ratio typically serves as a constant.(213-3-1)這一技術(shù)使用以往相似的項目的數(shù)據(jù)。假設(shè)在舊項目和新項目之間存在一種比率，以便做出關(guān)于時間、成本和技術(shù)的數(shù)字預(yù)測，并得到預(yù)測的下線和上線。比率一般是一個常數(shù)。,7.2.2: Hybrid Analysis Approaches 混合分析方法,Managers are comfortable using rules of thumb combined with subjective judgments. (213-4-8)管理人員對于將經(jīng)驗規(guī)則和主觀判斷結(jié)合在一起使用感到滿意。,7.2.3: Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)失效模型和效果分析,This quality tool is a variation of the risk severity matrix discussed earlier. Each risk is assessed in terms of the following score: (214-2-1)這個質(zhì)量工具是風(fēng)險程度矩陣的變異，每個風(fēng)險按以下的分?jǐn)?shù)進行評估： Impact * Probability * Detection = Risk Value 影響值*概率*發(fā)現(xiàn)值=風(fēng)險值 Each of the three dimensions is rated according to a five-point scale.三個因素的每一個部分都分為5級。 This broad range of numerical scores allows for easy stratification of risk according to overall significance. (214-2-13)較寬的數(shù)值范圍使風(fēng)險程度的判斷更加容易。,7.2.4: Probability Analysis概率分析：,There are many statistical techniques available to the project manager that can assist in assessing project risk. (214-3-1)項目經(jīng)理可以使用許多統(tǒng)計技術(shù)來進行項目風(fēng)險評價： Decision trees have been used to assess alternative courses of action using expected values.決策樹可以用來根據(jù)期望值評估替代性行動過程。 Statistical variations of net present value (NPV) have been used to assess cash flow risks in projects.,PERT (program evaluation and review technique) and PERT simulation can be used to review activity and project risk. The use of PERT simulation is the simulation is increasing because it uses the same data required for PERT, and software to perform the simulation is readily available. (214-3-6)還可以用項目評審技術(shù)和PERT仿真來檢查活動及項目風(fēng)險。PERT仿真更常用的原因是，它使用和PERT相同的數(shù)據(jù)，而且完成這些仿真的軟件很容易獲得。,7.2.5: Scenario Analysis: Semiquantitative情景分析：半定量法,The scenario analysis begins with the baseline schedule, which typically represents average time and implies there is a 50/50 chance of completing the project schedule early or late. Risk team members are checked to be sure they are 90 (or 95) percent confident that the schedules duration is about average.(215)情景分析始于基準(zhǔn)線進度計劃，它通常代表了平均時間，表明完成項目進度計劃或存在延遲的可能性各占一半。風(fēng)險團隊成員要進行檢查以保證他們有90%的把握使項目的時間長度在平均水平之上。,Risk Schedules 風(fēng)險進度計劃,7.3: Risk Response Development應(yīng)對風(fēng)險,Responses to risk can be classified as (216-2-2)對風(fēng)險的反應(yīng)可以分為: Mitigating risk 降低風(fēng)險 Reducing risk is usually the first alternative considered. two strategies: (216-3-1)降低風(fēng)險通常是首選的風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措施。兩種戰(zhàn)略： reduce the likelihood that the event will occur and/or 降低事件發(fā)生的可能性； reduce the impact that the adverse event would have on the project.減少事件發(fā)生后對項目的負(fù)面影響。,transferring risk 轉(zhuǎn)移 This transfer dose not change risk. Passing risk to another party almost always results in paying a premium for this exemption. (216-5-1)轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險不會改變風(fēng)險。將風(fēng)險轉(zhuǎn)到另一方幾乎，當(dāng)然總是會因轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險而支付額外費用。 sharing risk 分擔(dān) Risk sharing allocates proportions of risk to different parties. (217-2-1)分擔(dān)風(fēng)險是將風(fēng)險各部分分配到各方。 Sharing risk has drawn more attention in recent years as a motivation for reducing risk and, in some cases, cutting project cost. (217-3-1)作為降低風(fēng)險以及在一些情形中削減項目成本的一種方式，分擔(dān)風(fēng)險在近些年受到了更多關(guān)注。 Usually the risk costs and benefits of the improved process are shared on a 50/50 basis between the owner and contracting firms. (218-1-4)改進過程的風(fēng)險成本和收益在業(yè)主和承包企業(yè)之間以各占一半的方式分享。,Retaining risk 保留 In some cases a conscious decision is made to retain the risk of an event occurring. (218-2-1)在有些情形中，會有意識地決定保留一種事件發(fā)生的風(fēng)險。 在項目開始之前投入風(fēng)險應(yīng)對的努力越多，就越有可能讓項目意外降到最少。知道對風(fēng)險事件可以作出保留、轉(zhuǎn)移或分擔(dān)等反應(yīng)，極大地降低了風(fēng)險事件發(fā)生時的壓力和不確定性。,項目風(fēng)險分析后的應(yīng)對措施,通用的減輕風(fēng)險措施清單,通用的減輕風(fēng)險措施清單不僅可幫助項目領(lǐng)導(dǎo)識別風(fēng)險，而且可幫助項目領(lǐng)導(dǎo)選擇減輕風(fēng)險措施,風(fēng)險計劃,What, when, how, who,7.3.1: Contingency Planning應(yīng)變計劃,Definition: A contingency plan is an alternative plan that will be used if a possible foreseen risk event becomes a reality. The contingency plan represents preventive actions that will reduce or mitigate the negative impact of the risk event. (218-4-1)應(yīng)變計劃是欲知風(fēng)險事件發(fā)生后可能使用的替代性計劃。應(yīng)變計劃代表了降低或減輕風(fēng)險事件負(fù)面影響的預(yù)防性行為。 The plan should include a cost estimate and identify the source of funding. (218-5-2)計劃應(yīng)包括成本預(yù)測和融資渠道的確認(rèn)。,Risk Response Matrix風(fēng)險反應(yīng)矩陣,Function: The absence of a contingency plan, when a risk event occurs, can cause a manager to delay or postpone the decision to implement a remedy. This postponement can lead to panic, crisis mismanagement, and acceptance of the first remedy suggested. Such after-the-event decision making under pressure can be potentially dangerous and costly. (218-4-4)風(fēng)險事件發(fā)生時沒有應(yīng)變計劃，會導(dǎo)致管理人員延誤或推遲實施挽回行動。這種延遲可能會導(dǎo)致恐慌、對危機的管理不當(dāng)和對第一種挽回行動的采納。這種在事件發(fā)生后的壓力下形成的決策，可能具有潛在的危險性并且成本較高。,風(fēng)險應(yīng)對樣本,項目案例風(fēng)險應(yīng)對計劃,The common methods for handling all kinds of risks: Technical Risks Schedule Risks Cost Risks Funding Risks,Technical Risks Technical risks are problematic; they can often be the kind that cause the project to be shut down. (219-3-1) Contingency or backup plans are made for those possibilities that are foreseen. (219-3-2) In addition to backup strategies, project managers need to develop methods to quickly assess whether technical uncertainties can be resolved. (220-2-1)在后備策略之外，項目經(jīng)理需要尋找方法來快速評價是否可以解決技術(shù)上的不確定性。 By isolating and testing the key technical questions early on in a project, project feasibility can be quickly determined and necessary adjustments made. (221-1-5),Schedule Risks Managing scheduling risk usually requires tread-off decisions. It is ironic that practicing managers actually increase schedule risk by some of their decisions. Three of those situations are examined below. (221-2)管理進度風(fēng)險通常需要進行決策權(quán)衡。具有諷刺意味的是，實踐中項目經(jīng)理的一些決策實際上增加了風(fēng)險，以下考察三種情形。 Use of Slack使用時差 Use of slack moves more activities nearer their late start, and thus the risk of project delay is increased. (221-3-5),Imposed Duration Dates強加的日期 Our experience suggests that about 80 percent of all projects have imposed duration dates. (221-4-1)經(jīng)驗說明，所有項目中大約80 %具有強加的完成日期。 Compression of Project Schedules項目進度的壓縮 Compressing the critical path decreases total slack on other paths, and more paths become critical or near critical. The more critical activities or near-critical activities there are, the higher the risk of delaying project completion. (221-5-4)壓縮關(guān)鍵路徑降低了其他路徑上的總時差，使更多路徑變?yōu)殛P(guān)鍵路徑。關(guān)鍵或接近關(guān)鍵的活動越多，項目完工延誤的風(fēng)險也就越高。,進度追回的方法,Cost Risks Time/Cost Dependency Link時間/成本關(guān)聯(lián) There is a dependency link between time and cost and technical problems and cost. (222-2-1)在時間和成本之間以及技術(shù)問題和成本之間存在相互依賴的關(guān)系。 Cash flow decision現(xiàn)金流決策 Some cash flow decisions can heighten schedule risks. (222-3-1)一些現(xiàn)金流決策會增加進度風(fēng)險 Price Protection Risks價格保護風(fēng)險 Those that may change should be identified and estimates made of the magnitude of change. This approach ensures control of the contingency funds as the project is implemented. (222-4-7)對可能變化的那些因素應(yīng)加以識別，變動的幅度也要予以估計。這一方法保證了項目實施對應(yīng)急基金的控制。,Funding Risks Just as government projects are subject to changes in political structure and national agenda, business firms frequently undergo changes in priorities and top management. (223-1-1)如同政府項目受政治結(jié)構(gòu)和國家計劃的變化影響，企業(yè)的優(yōu)先級和高管層的變動也會對項目造成影響。 Severe budget cuts or lack of adequate funding can have a devastating effect on a project. Typically, when such a fate occurs, there is a need to scale back the scope of the project to what is possible. “All-or-nothing projects” are ripe targets to budget cutters. (223-2-1),7.3.2: Contingency funding應(yīng)急基金,Contingency funds are established to cover errors in estimates, omissions, and uncertainties that may materialize as the project is implemented. (223-4-1)要建立應(yīng)急基金來應(yīng)付項目實施時可能會出現(xiàn)的估計誤差、遺漏和不確定性。 The size and amount of contingency reserves depends on “newness” of the project, inaccurate time and cost estimates, technical problems, minor changes in scope, and problems not anticipated. (223-5-1),Budget Reserves Budget reserves are those allocated to specific segments or deliverables of the project. (223-5-11)預(yù)算儲備是分配給特定項目段或可交付物的那些儲備。 Management Reserves Management reserves are those allocated to risks associated with the total project. (223-5-12)管理儲備是分配給和整個項目相關(guān)的風(fēng)險儲備。,Budget Reserves These reserves are identified for specific work packages or segments of a project found in the baseline budget or work breakdown structure. Budget reserves are for identified risks that have a low chance of occurring. (223-6-1)預(yù)算儲備針對基準(zhǔn)線預(yù)算或工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)中的特定工作包或項目階段，針對的是發(fā)生概率低的已識別風(fēng)險。 The budget reserves should be communicated to the project team. This openness suggests trust and encourages good cost performance. However, distributing budget reserves should be the responsibility of both the project manager and the team members responsible for implementing the specific segment of the project. If the risk does not materialize, the funds are returned to the management reserve. Thus, budget reserves decrease as the project progresses. (224-1-1)預(yù)算儲備應(yīng)傳達給項目團隊。這一公開性體現(xiàn)了信任并鼓勵良好的成本績效。不過，分配預(yù)算儲備應(yīng)是項目經(jīng)理和負(fù)責(zé)完成特定項目段的團隊成員共同的責(zé)任。如果風(fēng)險沒有出現(xiàn)，則基金返回給管理儲備。因此預(yù)算儲備隨項目的進展而減少。,Management Reserves These reserve funds are needed to cover major unforeseen and potential risk and hence, are applied to the total project. (224-2-1)需要管理儲備基金來應(yīng)付重大意外的風(fēng)險，因此應(yīng)用于整個項目。 Most management reserves are set using historical data and judgments concerning the uniqueness of the project. (224-2-8)絕大多數(shù)管理儲備使用歷史數(shù)據(jù)和關(guān)于項目獨特性的判斷來建立。 Placing technical contingencies in the management reserve is a special case. (224-3-1)將技術(shù)應(yīng)變計劃置于管理儲備中是一種特例。 The owner and project manager decide when the contingency plan will be implemented and the reserve funds used. (224-3-6)由業(yè)主或高層控制。業(yè)主和項目經(jīng)理決定何時實施應(yīng)變計劃和使用儲備基金。,將技術(shù)應(yīng)變計劃置于管理儲備中是一種特例。識別可能的技術(shù)（性能）風(fēng)險通常和新的、未嘗試的創(chuàng)新過程或產(chǎn)品聯(lián)系在一起。由于存在創(chuàng)新失敗的可能性，所以需要一種讓步計劃。這種類型的風(fēng)險超出了項目經(jīng)理的控制范圍，因此將技術(shù)儲備置于管理儲備中，由業(yè)主或高層控制。業(yè)主和項目經(jīng)理決定何時實施應(yīng)變計劃和使用儲備基金。一般假設(shè)認(rèn)為：這些儲備基金永遠不會使用，這是有可能的。,7.4: Risk Response Control 風(fēng)險反應(yīng)的控制,The last step in the risk management process is risk control-executing the risk response strategy, monitoring triggering events, initiating contingency plans, and watching for new risks. (224-5-1)風(fēng)險管理過程的最后一步是風(fēng)險控制執(zhí)行風(fēng)險反應(yīng)戰(zhàn)略，監(jiān)控風(fēng)險引發(fā)事件，啟動應(yīng)變計劃，以及防范新風(fēng)險。 Risk assessment has to be part of the working agenda of status meetings. (225-5-2)風(fēng)險評估應(yīng)該成為狀態(tài)報告會的工作日程之一。,Change Control Management 變更控制管理,A major element of the risk control process is change management. (225-6-1)風(fēng)險控制過程的一個主要元素是變更管理。 Three categories: (225-6) Scope changes in the form of design or additions represent big changes.以設(shè)計或附加形式出現(xiàn)的范圍變更代表著大變更。 Implementation of contingency plans, when risk events occur, represent changes in baseline costs and schedules.當(dāng)風(fēng)險事件發(fā)生時，應(yīng)急計劃的實施表明基準(zhǔn)線成本和進度計劃的變更。 Improvement changes suggested by project team members represent another category.項目團隊成員所建議的改進變更是另外一種變更。,Change control systems involve reporting, controlling, and recording changes to the project baseline. (226-2-1)變更控制系統(tǒng)涉及報告、控制和記錄項目基準(zhǔn)線的變更。 Purposes: (226-2) Identify proposed changes.識別變更建議。 List expected effects of proposed change(s) on schedule and budget.列出變更建議對進度或預(yù)算的預(yù)期影響。 Review, evaluate, and approve or disapprove changes formally.正式地檢查、評價并批準(zhǔn)或否決變更。 Negotiate and resolve conflicts of change, conditions, and cost.協(xié)商和解決變更在條件和成本上的沖突。 Communicate changes to parties affected.與受到變更影響的各方溝通。 Assign responsibility for implementing change.指派實施變更的責(zé)任 Track all changes that are to be implemented.跟蹤即將實施的所有變更。 One of the keys to a successful change control process is document, document, document! (227-3-3)成功的變更控制過程的關(guān)鍵之一就是記錄，記錄，再記錄。,Change Request Form變更請求表,項目進展報告,每一次變更都必須遵循同樣的程序，即相同的文字報告，相同的管理方法，相同的授權(quán)過程。 必須確定每一次變更對項目成本、進度、風(fēng)險、技術(shù)要求的影響。 一旦批準(zhǔn)進行變更，項目組必須設(shè)定一個程序來執(zhí)行變更。 在充分估計一個變更的影響之后，必須謹(jǐn)慎執(zhí)行，并且使其保持在限定的數(shù)目之下以避免項目進度和成本的外溢。,變更的控制,需求變更申請書的參考格式,The risk and risk management process: an overview The four major steps of Risk Management Process The several methods of Risk Assessment Four kinds responses to risk Four kinds risks included in Contingency Planning The distinguish between budget reserve and management reserve,7.6：Session Summary 本章小結(jié),Budget reserve Management reserve Risk severity matrix Change management system Mitigating risk Scenario analysis,7.7: Key Terms關(guān)鍵術(shù)語,Sharing risk Contingency plan Risk profile Transferring risk,7.7: Key Terms關(guān)鍵術(shù)語,問題與討論 Q&C Questions & Comments,Project risks can/cannot be eliminated if the project is carefully planned. Ex