企業(yè)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的分析

企業(yè)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的分析CREDITCULTURE

信貸文化RiskaversegivenBank’shighgearingandthinmargin傾向低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，由于銀行高負(fù)債和低利息差Propergoalsandmeasureswithcontrols適當(dāng)?shù)哪繕?biāo)和措施及控制TheLinetakesprimary(orjoint)responsibilityofthecreditdecisions

前線部門對(duì)貸款決定負(fù)主要（或共同）責(zé)任BurdenofproofontheLine

證明應(yīng)貸款責(zé)任在于前線部門Neverfeelembarrassedtoask“dumb”questions不用擔(dān)心問“愚笨”的問題2CREDITRISKMANAGEMENT

信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理Prerequisite:先決條件Seniormanagement’ssupport(positiveintervention?)高層管理的支持（積極干預(yù)？）People(technicalcapability,integrityandinter-personalskills)人員（技術(shù)能力、人格和人際交往能力）OrganizationandSystem組織及系統(tǒng)

Attribute:特征Independent獨(dú)立性Nobottom-lineresponsibility沒有盈利責(zé)任Professional專業(yè)性Firmandfair堅(jiān)定和公正3STRUCTUREANDAPPROVALPROCESS結(jié)構(gòu)和認(rèn)證程序BoardofDirectors董事會(huì)行政總裁（總部）GHQCEOAPHCEO行政總裁（亞太區(qū)）AMHGM總經(jīng)理（香港及中國(guó)大陸）Line前線部門信貸總經(jīng)理GMCreditCCO首席信貸官HDCredit信貸部門主管Concurrence認(rèn)同Approval審批Approval審批Approval審批CountryRisk/BankRisk國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)MarketRisk/CreditRisk市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)MarketRisk/CreditRisk市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Credit信用4ALTERNATIVES選擇CentralizedvsDecentralized集權(quán)/分權(quán)IndividualvsCommittee(compositionanddecisionmakingprocess)個(gè)人/委員會(huì)（債務(wù)組成及決策過程）

Factorstoconsider:需要考慮的因素

Individual/CollectiveDecision/Responsibility個(gè)人/集體決策/責(zé)任Seniormanagement’strust高層管理的信任Qualityofstaff(atcentreandintheline)員工的素質(zhì)（管理人員和一線職員）Specializationofstaff員工專業(yè)化Effectivenessofinternalcontrolsystem內(nèi)部控制系統(tǒng)的功效Qualityofservice(e.g.turnaroundtime)服務(wù)的質(zhì)量（例如：報(bào)廢項(xiàng)目時(shí)間）Others(fraudpreventionetc.)其他（防范欺詐等）5StructureandAccountCycle

結(jié)構(gòu)及客戶信貸周期Policy/政策Approval審批RiskMonitoring風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)督Recovery追償HeadofCRM信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理部Loans貸款Unhealthyloans不良貸款Review回顧Review回顧6CreditPolicy,GuidelinesandProceduresManual

信貸政策，指南及程序手冊(cè)Keybusinessobjectives主要業(yè)務(wù)目標(biāo)StructureandResponsibility結(jié)構(gòu)及職責(zé)EconomicOutlook經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期SectoralAnalysis行業(yè)分析BusinessStrategyandFocus業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略和重點(diǎn)RiskAssessmentandCreditAppetite風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和信貸偏好LendingGuidelines貸款指南CreditProducts,ProceduresandAdvice信貸產(chǎn)品、程序和建議7CREDITPOLICY信貸政策M(jìn)arketpositioningandriskappetite市場(chǎng)定位和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好

Return回報(bào)

PrivateBank CommercialBank SubprimeLender

私人銀行商業(yè)銀行次級(jí)貸款人-Largecorporate大型企業(yè)-Middlemarket中端市場(chǎng)-Smallbusiness小型企業(yè)-Consumer消費(fèi)者

Risk風(fēng)險(xiǎn)8MARKETSEGMENTATION–CREDITTOOLS市場(chǎng)細(xì)分—信貸工具CorporateBanking-Largecorporate-Judgemental(plusRating,KMV,MRA)公司金融-大型公司-主觀判斷（加評(píng)分，KMV,MRA)

CommercialBanking–Mediumsizedcorporate–Judgemental公司金融-中型企業(yè)-主觀判斷

BusinessBanking–Smallbusiness–Scoring商務(wù)理財(cái)-小型企業(yè)-評(píng)分

PersonalFinancialServices–Consumer–Scoring個(gè)人金融服務(wù)-消費(fèi)者-評(píng)分

9Charge-OffRates,AllBanks,SA(USA)沖銷率所有銀行美國(guó)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.091Q191Q392Q192Q393Q193Q394Q194Q395Q195Q396Q196Q397Q197Q398Q198Q399Q199Q300Q100Q301Q101Q3Commercial*商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)貸款C&ILoans工商貸款TotalLoans&Leases貸款及租賃總額%Residential*住房貸款10LoanQualityinHK香港地區(qū)貸款質(zhì)量-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%NPL%不良貸款比例Creditcardcharge-offratio(annualised)年信用卡沖銷比例MortgageDelinquencyRate住房貸款不良率RealGDP(yearonyear%change)年實(shí)際GDP變化率11SmallBusiness小型企業(yè)Morevulnerabletoeconomicdownturn易受經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑的影響Informationproblematic(lowfinancialtransparencyandreliability)信息問題（財(cái)務(wù)信息透明度及可信度不高）Highoperatingrisks(relativelyweakinmanagementskills)高運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（較弱的管理能力）CharacteristicsoftheScorecard記分卡的特征Company’sfinancials公司財(cái)務(wù)狀況Company’scredithistoryandbehavior公司信用歷史和表現(xiàn)Company’sattributes(age,sector,sizeetc)公司性質(zhì)（成立時(shí)間的長(zhǎng)短、所屬行業(yè)、規(guī)模等）Owner’sscores公司所有者的評(píng)分12英國(guó)小型公司主要業(yè)務(wù)的設(shè)立與終止設(shè)立千/每季度終止13Consumer消費(fèi)貸款CriteriaBasedLending根據(jù)準(zhǔn)則所進(jìn)行的信貸Morecommonlyforsecuredproducts,e.g.mortgage,carloans,HPandloanssecuredbyliquidassets多用于擔(dān)保產(chǎn)品，例如：住房貸款、汽車貸款、租賃及用流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)擔(dān)保的貸款Securitycoverage抵押品/貸款比例Incomecoverage收入/還款比例

14CreditCardQuality信用卡質(zhì)量3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%Dec-98Mar-99Jun-99Sep-99Dec-99Mar-00Jun-00Sep-00Dec-00Mar-01Jun-01Sep-01Dec-01Mar-02-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000No.ofBankruptcyPetitions破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)Creditcardcharge-offratio(annualised)年信用卡沖銷率Unemploymentrate失業(yè)率BankruptcyPetitions(RHS)破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)（RHS)15Scoring評(píng)分Rankordering分級(jí)ApplicationandBehavioralScores申請(qǐng)信貸和行為評(píng)分GenericandCustomizedScores通用評(píng)分和專用評(píng)分Creditcard,personalloans,etc信用卡，個(gè)人貸款等16PRICINGSTRATEGY

定價(jià)戰(zhàn)略1.Interestmargin:hurdlerates,e.g.bonds.利率邊際：障礙率，例如：債券2.RORA:returnontheoverallrelationship總體關(guān)系的回報(bào)3.EP:costofcapital經(jīng)濟(jì)利潤(rùn)：資本成本

Factorstoconsider:考慮因素PD(Borrower’sgrade)違約機(jī)率LGD損失比率Term年期Costofcapital資本成本Competition競(jìng)爭(zhēng)Businesspotential發(fā)展?jié)摿?7DEBTRECOVERY(1)

貸款收回（1）Objective

目標(biāo)RiskvsRelationship

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或關(guān)系Strategy

戰(zhàn)略RehabilitationORExit

貸款康復(fù)或退出18DEBTRECOVERY(2)

貸款收回(2)Workout-Factorsforsuccess

債務(wù)重組-成功的因素-

legalsystem(SchemeofArrangement,IndividualVoluntaryArrangement,BankruptcyLaw)-法律體系(債務(wù)安排計(jì)劃、個(gè)人自愿安排、破產(chǎn)法）-

professionalsupport(lawyer,accountant,financialadvisor,assetsearch