中航重機(jī)：大鍛機(jī)有望邁入收獲期宏山公司發(fā)展進(jìn)入快車道

11中航重機(jī)（600765.SH中航重機(jī)（600765.SH）證券研究報(bào)告yangchen＠人民幣(元)27.0025.0023.0021.0019.0017.0015.0013.00成交金額(百萬元)1,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000人民幣(元)27.0025.0023.0021.0019.0017.0015.0013.00成交金額(百萬元)1,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000司積極開拓重點(diǎn)型號(hào)市場(chǎng)，已陸續(xù)開始交付重點(diǎn)型號(hào)產(chǎn)品，隨著在重點(diǎn)型號(hào)和民用航空市場(chǎng)的同步發(fā)力，宏山公司發(fā)展逐步進(jìn)入231030240130240430240731成交金額中航重機(jī)滬深300項(xiàng)目12/2212/2312/24E12/25E12/26E營(yíng)業(yè)收入(百萬元)10,57010,57712,23314,33716,882營(yíng)業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率20.25%0.07%15.66%17.20%17.75%歸母凈利潤(rùn)(百萬元)1,2021,3291,5681,8852,268歸母凈利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率34.93%10.55%18.05%20.18%20.32%攤薄每股收益(元)0.8160.9031.0591.2721.531每股經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流凈額0.530.400.891.221.43ROE(歸屬母公司)(攤薄)11.56%11.56%12.21%12.99%13.68%P/E38.0921.1621.4917.8814.86P/B4.402.452.622.322.03231030240130240430240731成交金額中航重機(jī)滬深300項(xiàng)目12/2212/2312/24E12/25E12/26E營(yíng)業(yè)收入(百萬元)10,57010,57712,23314,33716,882營(yíng)業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率20.25%0.07%15.66%17.20%17.75%歸母凈利潤(rùn)(百萬元)1,2021,3291,5681,8852,268歸母凈利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率34.93%10.55%18.05%20.18%20.32%攤薄每股收益(元)0.8160.9031.0591.2721.531每股經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流凈額0.530.400.891.221.43ROE(歸屬母公司)(攤薄)11.56%11.56%12.21%12.99%13.68%P/E38.0921.1621.4917.8814.86P/B4.402.452.622.322.03來源：公司年報(bào)、國金證券研究所我們認(rèn)為，公司是航空鍛造龍頭，隨著高端產(chǎn)能的釋放，公司市場(chǎng)份額、盈利能力有望持續(xù)提升，同時(shí)隨著國產(chǎn)大飛機(jī)行業(yè)景氣來源：公司年報(bào)、國金證券研究所22 3 3 4 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 533本持平，或說明公司盈利能力有所改善。剔除宏山公司并表3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000aa營(yíng)業(yè)收入（百萬）——同比增長(zhǎng)率（%）環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)率（%）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q350%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%0aa歸母凈利潤(rùn)（百萬）——同比增長(zhǎng)率（%）環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)率（%）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q3來源：wind，國金證券研究所來源：wind，國金證券研究所40%35%30%20%15%10% 0%毛利率（%）歸母凈利率（%）期間費(fèi)用率（%）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q3同比-4.1pct，環(huán)比-1.0pct；財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用率0.6%，同比+0.7pct，環(huán)比+0.4412%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%銷售費(fèi)用率（%）管理費(fèi)用率（%）研發(fā)費(fèi)用率（%）----財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用率（%）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q3-資產(chǎn)減值損失（百萬）信用減值損失（百萬）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q322Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q3來源：wind，國金證券研究所來源：wind，國金證券研究所截至24Q3末公司固定資產(chǎn)為52.32億元4,000-固定資產(chǎn)（百萬）在建工程（百萬）450400-資本性支出（百萬）同比增長(zhǎng)率（%）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q3來源：wind，國金證券研究所來源：wind，國金證券研究所截至24Q3末公司合同負(fù)債1.85億元，較24Q2末減少0.42億，減少幅度-18.47%；存貨700.0000600.0000500.0000400.0000300.0000200.0000100.0000n合同負(fù)債（百萬）.預(yù)付款項(xiàng)（百萬）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q35,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500-aa存貨（百萬）——存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)（天）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q325020050-來源：wind，國金證券研究所來源：wind，國金證券研究所551,5001,000500--500-1,000經(jīng)營(yíng)性凈現(xiàn)金流（百萬）收現(xiàn)比22Q122Q222Q322Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q0.2-66損益表（人民幣百萬元）資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表（人民幣百萬元）主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入增長(zhǎng)率主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)成本%銷售收入20218,790-6,30071.7%202210,57020.2%-7,47970.8%202310,5770.1%-7,26868.7%2024E12,23315.7%-8,24567.4%2025E14,33717.2%-9,58666.9%2026E16,88217.7%-11,23066.5%貨幣資金應(yīng)收款項(xiàng)存貨其他流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)20216,1305,5953,23242620225,7356,8913,31620235,1928,7893,7211332024E5,8888,9363,0361952025E6,86110,4043,1752032026E8,03111,8533,341235毛利2,4903,0913,3093,9884,7525,652流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)15,38416,05717,83518,05520,64423,462%銷售收入28.3%29.2%31.3%32.6%33.1%33.5%%總資產(chǎn)78.2%76.2%70.1%70.0%71.8%74.2%營(yíng)業(yè)稅金及附加-29-30-61-61-72-84長(zhǎng)期投資760882909909909909%銷售收入0.3%0.3%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%固定資產(chǎn)2,7053,1335,4525,8366,1766,187銷售費(fèi)用-73-77-92-92-106-122%總資產(chǎn)13.7%14.9%21.4%22.6%21.5%19.6%%銷售收入0.8%0.7%0.9%0.8%0.7%0.7%無形資產(chǎn)377347611666715756管理費(fèi)用-657-757-764-832-953-1,114非流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)4,3015,0287,5947,7368,1208,168%銷售收入7.5%7.2%7.2%6.8%6.7%6.6%%總資產(chǎn)·21.8%·23.8%29.9%30.0%28.2%25.8%研發(fā)費(fèi)用-346-434-661-765-892-1,047資產(chǎn)總計(jì)·19,685·21,08525,42925,79128,76331,629 %銷售收入3.9%4.1%6.3%6.3%6.2%6.2%短期借款7462,2731,3671,1661,5601,654息稅前利潤(rùn)（EBIT）1,3841,7931,7302,2392,7293,285應(yīng)付款項(xiàng)4,7316,0127,6566,8937,5598,210%銷售收入15.7%17.0%16.4%18.3%19.0%19.5%其他流動(dòng)負(fù)債1,8371,2451,600905924755財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用-8122-12-108-254-326流動(dòng)負(fù)債7,3149,53010,6238,96410,04210,619%銷售收入0.9%-0.2%0.1%0.9%1.8%1.9%長(zhǎng)期貸款2,1043361,9202,6202,7202,820資產(chǎn)減值損失-345-293-179-236-163-167其他長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債431424631522524507公允價(jià)值變動(dòng)收益000000負(fù)債·9,849·10,29013,17412,10613,28613,947投資收益155-171555普通股股東權(quán)益9,36010,39311,48812,84114,51516,579 %稅前利潤(rùn)13.5%n.a0.0%0.3%0.2%0.2%其中：股本1,0521,4721,4711,4711,4711,471營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)1,1401,5361,5981,9322,3512,830未分配利潤(rùn)3,2884,2595,2946,6728,34610,410營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率13.0%14.5%15.1%15.8%16.4%16.8%少數(shù)股東權(quán)益4764027678449621,104營(yíng)業(yè)外收支3-27455負(fù)債股東權(quán)益合計(jì)19,68521,08525,42925,79128,76331,629稅前利潤(rùn)1,1441,5341,6051,9362,3562,835利潤(rùn)率13.0%14.5%15.2%15.8%16.4%16.8%比率分析··所得稅-177-204-208-290-353-4252021202220232024E2025E2026E所得稅率15.5%13.3%13.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%每股指標(biāo)凈利潤(rùn)9671,3301,3971,6462,0032,410每股收益0.8470.8160.9031.0591.2721.531少數(shù)股東損益761296977118142每股凈資產(chǎn)8.9007.0597.8118.6689.79811.191歸屬于母公司的凈利潤(rùn)8911,2021,3291,5681,8852,268每股經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)金凈流1.4430.5260.4040.8881.2231.427 凈利率10.1%11.4%12.6%12.8%13.1%13.4%每股股利0.0450.0500.1700.1300.1430.139回報(bào)率現(xiàn)金流量表（人民幣百萬元）凈資產(chǎn)收益率14.86%9.52%11.56%11.56%12.21%12.99%2021202220232024E2025E2026E總資產(chǎn)收益率4.52%5.70%5.22%6.08%6.55%7.17%凈利潤(rùn)9671,3301,3971,6462,0032,410投入資本收益率9.20%11.57%9.64%10.84%11.69%12.56%少數(shù)股東損益761296977118142增長(zhǎng)率非現(xiàn)金支出651594551713695808主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入增長(zhǎng)率31.23%20.25%0.07%15.66%17.20%17.75%非經(jīng)營(yíng)收益-827472166194213EBIT增長(zhǎng)率74.83%29.54%-3.51%29.38%21.89%20.38%營(yíng)運(yùn)資金變動(dòng)-18-1,224-1,427-1,218-1,093-1,331凈利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率159.05%34.93%10.55%18.05%20.18%20.32%經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金凈流1,5187745941,3061,7982,099總資產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)率25.65%7.11%20.61%1.42%11.52%9.96%資本開支-618-877-1,052-613-910-683資產(chǎn)管理能力投資46-51-1,066000應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)103.3111.7163.6164.0163.0155.0其他290102555存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)182.3159.8176.7140.0130.0120.0投資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金凈流-281-918-2,116-608-905-678應(yīng)付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)148.6123.3213.4180.0170.0160.0股權(quán)募資2,192079000固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)99.583.0160.2140.3120.0100.0債權(quán)募資-324-209866411510189償債能力其他-25-5617-392-416-428凈負(fù)債/股東權(quán)益-33.35%-28.96%-15.54%-15.36%-16.68%-20.12%籌資活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金凈流1,843-265962