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GoldmanCommodities

SachsResearch17November2024|4:30PMEST

CommodityViews

20250utlook:StaySelective,HedgetheTails

■TheunusuallywiderangeofpotentialUSpolicyshiftsin2025strengthensthediversifyingroleofcommoditiesinportfolios.Inparticular,longgoldandoil

positionscanactascriticalinflationandgeopoliticalhedgesintailscenarios,includingtariffescalation(gold),geopoliticaloilsupplydisruptions(oilandlikelygold),anddebtfears(gold).Wealsoidentifyalong-shortcommoditybaskettotrackandpotentiallyhedgetariffescalation.

Longgold.USpolicyuncertaintyandrecentconsolidationprovideanattractiveentrypointforourhigh-convictionlonggoldview,withstructuralsupportfromcentralbankgolddemandandcyclicalsupportfromFedcuts.Wekeepour

$3,000Dec25forecast.

Tradetheoiltails.OurbasecaseisthatBrentpricesstayina$70-85range,andthatoiloffersanattractiverollyield.Buttherisksofbreakingoutofthis

rangearegrowing.Intheshortterm,thenewadministrationfurtherraisestheriskstoIransupply.Themedium-termpricerisks,however,skewtothe

downsidebecauseofhighsparecapacityandbecausebroadtariffscouldhurtdemand

■Adelayedbearishcycleforglobalgas.Asforoil,ourfocusforglobalgas

pricesisonnear-termupsiderisks(e.g.acolderwinter)butmedium-term

downside.GivendelaysintheLNGsupplywave,wenowexpectEuropeanandAsiangaspriceswellbelowtheforwardsfrom2027(vs.2026expected

previously).

Baseoverferrous.Chinastimulusstrengthensourpreferenceforcopperandaluminumoverironoregiventheshiftfrompropertytogreenenergy.Whiletradetensionsposetwo-sidedriskstoex-Chinametalprices,potentialfurtherdollarappreciationposesnetdownsideriskstoourcopperpriceforecast.

Toptrades:

□Let'sGetFIS-ical:LongGoldLondonSpot

□Well-Timed:BrentspreadslongMay-Jun25,shortMay-Jun26

□GlobalGasGlut:Short3Q27Europeannaturalgas(TTF)

DaanStruyven

+1(212)357-4172|

daan.struyven@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SamanthaDart

(1a2-4a2r@gscom

aha738075dL04L

LinaThomas

+44(20)7051-3062|lina.thomas@GoldmanSachsInternational

CallumBruce,CFA

+1(212)902-3053|callum.bruce@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

YuliaZhestkovaGrigsby

+1(646)446-3905|yulia.grigsby@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

HongcenWei

(-6

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

AureliaWaltham

+44(20)7051-2547|

aurelia.waltham@

GoldmanSachsInternational

LaviniaForcellese

+44(2017774-9243|

lavinia.forcellese@

GoldmanSachsInternational

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

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CommodityViews

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GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

2025Outlook:StaySelective,HedgetheTails

TheRepublicansweepdoesn'tchangeourmacrobasecaseofstrongUSgrowth,

moderateinflation,andratecuts.Ourcommoditybasecasestilllooksforrange-boundoilprices,risinggoldprices,andbasemetalsoutperformingferrousmetals(Exhibit1).President-electTrump'sbroadmandate,however,widensthedistributionofpossibleshiftsintrade,energy,andfiscalpolicy.Thisunusuallywiderangeofpotentialpolicy

changesstrengthensthediversifyingroleofcommoditiesinportfoliosin2025.In

particular,longgoldandoilpositionscanactascriticalinflationandgeopoliticalhedgesintailscenarios,includingtariffescalation(gold),geopoliticaloilsupplydisruptions(oilandlikelygold),anddebtfears(gold).1

TheRepublicansweepandChina'spivottostimulusalsostrengthenourstructurallyselectiveapproachtocommodityinvesting.Basedontheseselectiveviewsandthenear-termupsidetoenergypricesbutmedium-termdownside,werecommendthreetrades(Exhibit2):

■'Let'sGetFIS-ical'longgoldtrade(TheFIS-icalgoldpricingframeworkreferstodemandfromFinancialandmonetaryinstitutions(Fear),Investors(Interestrates)andSpeculators(Safehaven).)

■'Well-Timed'BrenttimespreadslongMay-Jun25,shortMay-Jun26trade■'GlobalGasGlut'short3Q27TTFtrade

Becausebroad-basedtariffsarethebiggestrisk,wealsoidentifyalong-shortbaskettotrackandhedgetradetensions.

Exhibit1:0urSelectiveForecastsShowRange-BoundOilPrices,RisingGoldPrices,andOutperformanceofBaseMetalsOverIronOre

Current

Level2024Q42025Q1

GSForecasts

2025Q22025Q3

Upsidevs.ForwardPricing2025Q42024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q4

Commodities

BrentCrudeOil($/bbl)WTICrudeOil(S/bbl)

TTFNaturalGas(Eur/MWh)

NYMEXNaturalGas(S/mmBtu)LMECopper($/mt)

LMEAluminum(S/mt)

IronOre62%Fe($/mt)COMEXGold(S/troy)

71

67

46

2.82

8,883

2,626

97

2,570

75

70

41

2.859,600

2,640

103

2,643

76

71

42

3.009,6002,655103

2,677

77

72

40

2.809,8902,687

97

2,770

76

71

40

3.0010,350

2,715

91

2,850

74

69

39

3.25

10,800

2,742

90

2,943

2%6%8%7%5%

1%5%

7%6%4%

4%4%

6%5%2%

1%5%

6%6%16%

4%5%

7%11%5%

3%4%4%5%5%

5%7%1%4%5%

0%2%4%6%8%

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmenResearch

Geopoliticaloilsupplydisruptionscanboostgoldpricesbecauseincreasedgeopoliticaluncertaintycan

boostsafehavengolddemandfrominvestors,speculatorsandcentralbanks,andbecausehighinflationcanboostinflationhedgingdemandforgoldfrominvestors.Thegoldpricespikesin1979and2022alsocoincidedwithmarketfearsaboutenergysupplydisruptionsandthefreezingofcentralbankassetsofIranandRussia,respectively.

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GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

Exhibit2:0urTopTradesExpressOurBullishViewonGold,Near-TermOilUpsideButMedium-TermDownside,andOurBearishViewonLong-DatedEuropeanGas

Trade

DescriptionRationale

TopTrades

Let'sGetFIS-ical

Well-Timed

GlobalGasGlut

aticBasket

LongGoldLondonSpot

USpolicyuncertaintyandrecentconsolidationofferacompellingentrypointforourhigh-convictiononggoldcall,supportedbystructuralcentralbankdemandandcyclicalFedcuts.

capacityandriskoftariffsescalationposedownsiderisksto2026prices.

BrentSpreadsLongMay-Jun25,Short-vJat6ionandIraniansupplyrisksdrivenear-termoilpriceupside,whilehighspare

Short3027EuropeanNaturalGas(TTb)lowligniteeconomicstomanagestoragelevels,whichisnotyetfullypricedinTTFforwards.

WeexpecttheupcomingwaveofglobalLNGsupplytodriveEuropeannaturalgaspnices(TTF)

TariffEscalationCommodityBasket

Globalescalation;

30%:LongGold-ShortCopperISescalabon

15%:LongUS-ShortEuropeSteel

15%:LongUS-ShortEuropeAluminumChinaescalation

15%:LongLME-ShortSHFEAluminum

8%LongUSSoybeanOil-ShortUSSoybeans8%LongGSCI-ShortUSCom

8%LongGSCI-ShortUSLeanHogs

Escalatingtariffscanhitglobalgrowth(bearishcopper)butraiseuncertainty(bullishgold).

The1stTrumpadministrationimposedUStariffsonsteelandaluminumof25%and10%,wideningUS-Europepricegaps.

Reducedtaxincentivostooxportmetal(products)suchasaluminumoutofChinaorevenexportrestrictionscanraiseexChina-Chinapricegaps.

HigherChineseagriculturaltariffsonUSsoybeans,com,andmeatscanreduceUSexternaldemandandreduceUSprices.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Weforecastatotalreturnbyend-2025of11%fortheGSClandof16%fortheGSClexagricultureandlivestock.Weexpectdouble-digittotalreturnsbyend-2025forour

highestconvictionarea,namelypreciousmetals,butalsoforenergy(witha9ppcontributionfromtherollyield),andforindustrialmetals.

Exhibit3:WeForecastaTotalReturnbyEnd-2025of16%fortheGSClexAgriculture&Livestock

DollarWeight

2022

HistoricalPerformance2023

YTD

2024

GSForecast2025

ByEnd-2025

S&PGSCI

S&PGSClex.Agriculture&Livestock

100

26

-4

4

8

8

11

75

29

-3

5

10

11

16

Energy

54

42

-5

9

10

17

IndustrialMetals

13

-8

-4

6

10

11

15

PreciousMetals

8

0

12

24

24

15

15

Agriculture

18

12

-8

-4

-4

3

-3

Livestock

8

5

0

16

14

-5

BCOM

100

16

-8

2

4

5

7

WehighlighttheGSClexAgriculture&Livestockbecausewecurrentydon'tforecastagricultureandlivestockprices,andinsteaduseforwards

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

TariffsandOtherTails

ThekeyupsideriskstoinflationunderthesecondTrumpadministrationonthesupplysidearemuchhighertariffs(oureconomistsseea40%chanceofa10%

across-the-boardtariffsonall$3.1tnofUSimports),deportations,andlowerIranoilsupply,whichcouldweighonequityandinsomescenariosbondreturns.2Thekeyupsideriskstoinflationonthedemandsidearelargertaxcuts,higherdefense

spending,andstrongerattemptstoinfluenceFedpolicy,whichcouldallweighonbondreturns.

Commoditiesactasacriticalinflationhedgeforbondsandequitiesbecause

commoditiestendtodeliverstrongrealreturnswheninflationsurprisessignificantlytotheupsidewhileequityandbondrealreturnstendtobenegative(Exhibit4).This

2Incontrasttopersistentinflationshocks,muchhighertariffsmayboostbondreturnsandweighonthereturnsofindustrialcommoditiesifinflationexpectationsandwagegrowthremainanchoredandifthe

negativegrowthimpactoutweighstheone-timeriseinthepricelevel.

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GoldmanSachs

17November2024

CommodityViews

commodityoutperformancepartlyreflectsthedirecthedgingbenefitsoflongenergy

positionsagainstnegativeenergysupplyshocks(e.g.lowerIranoilsupply)whichboostbothinflationandcommodityreturns.Butcommoditiestypicallyalsoperformwellwhenmacroshocksdriveinflation.First,latecyclepositivedemandshocks(e.g.largetaxcuts)tendtoboostinflationandcommodityreturnsbydepletingcommodityinventories.

Second,lossesincentralbankcredibility(e.g.politicalFedinterference)canboost

inflationanderodethevalueofnominalassets,againstwhichrealcommodityassetsandespeciallygoldofferwealthpreservation(Exhibit5).

Exhibit4:InTimesofLargeInflationSurprises,CommoditiesDeliverStrongReturnsWhileRealReturnsofEquitiesandBondsTurnNegative

RealReturns

Source:HaverAnalytics,Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

Exhibit5:LongGoldandOilPositionsCanActasInflationHedgesFromGeopoliticalShocksIncludingTariffs,OilSupplyShocks,FedSubordinationRisk,andDebtFears

WhichCommoditiesProtectAgainstDifferentInflationShocks?

POSITIVE

DEMANDSHOCK(Bondsψ)

FiscalEasing

INDUSTRIALMETALSoil

GreenSubstitute

GreenEnhancement

NATURALGAS

COPPER/ALUMINUM

GreenSubstitute

AGRICULTURE

CENTRALBANKCREDIBILITYLOSS/

GEOPOLITICS

(Equitiesψ;Bonds↓)

NEGATIVE

SUPPLYSHOCK

(Equfies↓;Bonds↓)

InflationRisksPostUSElections

FedSubordination;Tariffs,DebtFears

HawkishonIranOiSupply

CommodityHedge

InflationShocks

GOLD

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Becausetariffsarethesinglelargestrisktoinflationandportfolios,weidentifyabaskettotrackandpotentiallyhedge/expressviewsontradetensions.Thisbasketconsistsofsevenlegs,dividedintothreethemes:

■Globalescalation(30%LongGold-ShortCopper):

Highertariffswouldreduceglobalgrowth(negativeforcopperprices)andincreaseuncertainty(positiveforgoldprices).Tariffannouncementsin2019indeedledto

declinesinthecopperprice,butrisesinthegoldprice(Exhibit6,left).

■USescalation(15%LongUS-ShortEuropeSteel,15%LongUS-ShortEuropeAluminum):

ThefirstTrumpadministrationimposeda25%tariffonsteelanda10%tariffon

aluminum,whichwerefullypassedonandwidenedUS-Europepricegaps(Exhibit6,right).

■Chinaescalation(15%LongLME-ShortSHFEAluminum,8%LongUSSoybeanOil-ShortUSSoybeans,8%LongGSCl-ShortUSCorn,8%LongGSC-ShortUSLeanHogs)

WhileChinamayretaliatebyre-imposingtariffsonUSagriculturalgoods,itmayinsteaddisincentivizeorevenrestrictmetalormineralexportsasChinaexportsmoregoodstotheUSthanitimportsfromtheUS.OnFriday,thealuminumLMEoffshorevs.SHFE

onshorepricegaprecordedariseinthetop1%ofdailymovessince2015following

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GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

China's(preemptive)cancellationoftheexporttaxrebateforaluminumandcopperproducts3inacontextoffocusonsecurityofcommoditysupply.

HigherChinatariffsonUSagriculturalgoodsandmeatcouldreducedemandforUS

exports.Giveninsufficientalternativeexportmarkets,rebalancingtheUSmarketwouldrequirelowerUSsoybean/corn/meatpricestoincentivizelowerdomesticproduction.PotentialUSimporttariffsorChinaexporttaxesonChineseusedcookingoil(UCO)

wouldreducethesupplyofcookingoilsavailableintheUSandboostthepriceofUSfeedstocksforrenewabledieselandsustainableaviationfuelssuchasUSsoybeanoil.

EstimatedPriceImpactofa$10BnIncrease

Exhibit6:The2018-2019TradeTensionsLedtoHigherGoldPrices,LowerCopperPrices,andaHigherUS-EuropeSteelPriceGap2018-2019TradeTensions'ImpactonCommodityPrices

Weconsides

9/10/2019-9/12/2019(-S4.7bn),and

taifanouncementseisodsin2019:1513/2019-5/1720191S375n.2)731-20198520191S265bn,318/12/2019-8/13/2019184bn),48/22/2019-8/2320191$20.6bon.56)10/10/2019-11/10/2019(-S4.7bn).

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,Platts,Bloomberg

Thehistoricalperformanceofthetariffescalationbasketandourcross-assetstrategists'viewthatmarketsareunderpricingacross-the-board-tariffssuggestthatthisbasket

shouldcontinuetoperformwelliftradetensionsescalate(Exhibit7).

3Chinaalsoreducedtheexporttaxrebateforsomerefinedoilproducts,photovoltaics,batteries,andcertainnon-metallicmineralproductsfrom13%to9%.ThecancellationofexportstaxrebatesandUStariffsofChinaimportsbothboosttheoffshorevs.onshorepricedifference,buttheformerboostsChinagovernment

revenueswhilethelatterboostsUSgovernmentrevenues.

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GoldmanSachs

CommodityViews

Exhibit7:0urTariffEscalationCommodityLong-ShortTradeTensionsBasketTendstoPerformsWhenTradeTensionsEscalate

Theweightsofthe7pairsunderlyingthebasketare30%LongGold-ShortCopper15%LongUS-ShortEuropeSteel,15%LongUS-ShortEurope

aluminum,15%LongLME-ShortSHFEAluminum,8%LongUSSoybeanOil-ShortUSSoybeans.8%LongGSCI-ShortUSCom,and8%LongGSC-ShortUSLeanHogs.Weplotpricereturnsofthisbasketandnottotalreturns,whichdependontheexactimplementation.

Source:Bloomberg.GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

GoForGold

InthiscontextofheightenedUSpolicyuncertainty,ourhighest-conviction'Let'sGetFIS-ical'longgoldrecommendationstandsout.ThegoldpriceconsolidationfollowingtheorderlyUSelection—flushingspeculativepositioningfromnearall-timehighs—

providesanattractiveentrypointtobuygold,whichprovides17%ofupsidefrom

Friday'sclosebyDecember2025inourbasecase,andmoreupsideandthushedgingvaluetoportfoliosintailscenarios.

Exhibit8:WeForecasttheGoldPricetoRiseto$3,000/tozbyDecember2025,DrivenbyDemandFromFinancialandMonetaryAuthoritiesandInvestors,OutweighingtheDragFromaNormalizationinSpeculativeDemand

GSGoldPriceForecastandUnderlyingDrivers

PercentageContributionstothePercentage

GoldPriceS/toz

Points

1000

-10+

OurforecastingmodelstartsfromourNovember$2,640/tozforecast,whichisaboveFridaysclose.

2025

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

WemaintainourDecember2025forecastof$3.000/tozbasedonournewFIS-ical

pricingframework,whichsumsupphysicalgolddemandfromFinancialandmonetaryauthorities,InvestorsandSpeculators.Thestructuraldriverofourbullishgoldforecastishigherdemandfromcentralbanks(adding9%tothegoldpricebyDecember2025

relativetoourNovember$2,640forecast).Centralbankdemandhasincreasedfivefold(Exhibit9)sincethefreezingofRussia'scentralbankassets,onfearsaboutfinancialsanctionsandUSsovereigndebtsustainability,andcameinatastrong84tin

Septemberaccordingtoournowcast.ThecyclicaldriveristhegradualboosttoETFgoldholdingsastheFedcutsthefundsrateto3.25-3.5%by2025Q3(adding7%tothe

December2025goldprice).Theseboostsoutweighthedragfromourassumptionthatspeculativepositioninggraduallynormalizes(subtracting4%).

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GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

CentralBank&OtherInstitutionalGoldPurchasesCumulativeImpactonETFGoldHoldings

Exhibit9:CentralBankGoldDemandHasIncreasedFivefoldSincetheFreezingofRussia'sCentralBankAssets;TheBoostFromFedCutstoETFGoldHoldingsIsGradual

Tonnes

CentralBankAssetsCentralBankAssets

onLondonOTC(MonthlyAverage)Tonnes

(Jan2006-Jan2022)

(Feb2022-Sep2024)

Source:Bloomberg,FederalReserveBoard,WorldGoldCouncil,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Wenextdemonstrategold'shedgingpowerintwotailscenarios.First,weestimateapeak7%jumpingoldpricesaboveourbullishbaselinepathinascenariowherean

unprecedentedescalationoftradetensionsboostsuncertaintyandpushesspeculativepositioningbackup(Exhibit10).Second,weestimatea5%additionalriseingoldpricesbyDecember2025to$3,150ifconcernsoverUSfiscalsustainabilitygrow.RisingfearsofinflationandfiscalriskscoulddrivespeculativepositioningandETFflowshigher,

whileUSdebtsustainabilityconcernsmaypushcentralbanks,especiallythoseholdinglargeUSTreasuryreserves,tobuymoregold.Whiletheboostfromcentralbank

demandhasoutweighedthedragfromhighinterestratesinlate2022-early2023,weseepotentiallyhigherinterestratesandastrongerdollarasthemaindownsiderisktoourbullishgoldforecast.

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GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

Exhibit10:GoldOffersHedgingValuebyRising7%and5%AboveOurBullishBaselinePricePathinUSTradeTensionsandFiscalPolicyTailScenarios

mpactonGoldPricev.GSBaseCaseFromUSPollcyTallScenarlos

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

ATaleofTwoOilTails

Brentoilpricesareontracktoaveragearound$80/bblthisyear,closetothe2023

average.However,Brenthasdeclinedinrecentweekstothelow70sdespitea2024deficitanddespitegeopoliticaluncertainty.Thisreflects,inourview,marketconfidenceinalarge2025surplus,whichhaspushedspeculativepositioning(percentile4since2017)andvaluation(1m/36mBrenttimespreadsare$5/bblbelowfairvalue)tolow

levels.

Exhibit11:WeMaintainOurBrentRangeForecastofS70-85

Source:ICE,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

OurbasecaseisthatBrentstaysina$70-85range,andthatoiloffersanattractiverollyieldof5%in2025.Webelievethathighsparecapacityof6mb/dlimitspriceupsidein

mostscenarios.Consistentwiththisview,theeightOPEC+producers(which

announcedextravoluntaryproductioncutsin2023)signaledplansinJuneandAugust2024toraiseproductionwhenBrentwasinthelow$80s(Exhibit12,bluebars).Atthesametime,therecentdecisionstodelaythesesupplyincreaseswhenBrentdroppedtothelow$70s(orangebars)illustratethepriceelasticityofOPEC8+supply,which

togetherwiththepriceelasticityofUSshalesupply(whichriseswhenBrentdropstothe$60s)andofoildemandshouldlimitpricedownsideinmostscenarios.

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GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

Exhibit12:HighSpareCapacityandOPEC'sPlanstoRaiseProductionLimitPriceUpsideinMostScenarios

GlobalOilSpareCapacity

asPercentof12MMAGlobalProduction

Percent

S/bbl

"WeuseteBrentpicetontepreviousFidaytotheOct5th,2022andNov.30th,2023metingsasOPEC+decsinswerdelayed.GlobalsprecapacitvisconcentatedinOPEC+countiesverhisperiod.WeiclideOPECcounties,Husia,Oman,andBaran.WestimateNovember2024totalproductioncapaciy(m/d)of1.5inSaudiAabia,4.BinteUAE,4.7inta,and29inKuwait.

Source:Platts,IEA,0PEC,EIA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

WestillforecastBrenttorisetoanaverageof$76/bblin2025witha$78peakinJune,afterwhichBrentedgesdownto$73byDecember2025.Thismodestpriceupside

reflectsourforecastthatthepriceboostsfromareversalinlowvaluation(worth$5/bbl)andfromstrategicrestockingintheUSandChina(worth$2)outweighthedragfromamodest(belowconsensus)surplus(-$3).Ourmodest0.4mb/d2025surplusreflectsourbasecasethatsolidsupplygrowthfromtheAmericasandOPEC8+supplyincreasesin2025Q1outpaceresilient1.2mb/ddemandgrowth.Introducingour2026balance,weforecastBrenttoedgedownto$71/bblonamoderatesurplus.

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GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

Exhibit13:WeExpectBrenttoEdgeUpOvertheNext12MonthsastheBoostsFromNormalizingValuationandOECDSPRRestockingOutweightheDragFromOurModesta2025ModestSurplus

*ResidualcorespondstoimpactofEMex-Chinadestocking.WeestimatetheimpactofrestockingforaltheOECDSPRrelativetoacounterfactualof

stableOECDSPRandb)ChinainventoriesrelatvetoacounterfactualwheretheriseinChinainventoriesequalsChina'sshareofglobaldemandtimestheglobalsurplus.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Buttherisksofbreakingoutofthis$70-85rangearegrowing,withtheshort-termanddownsideriskinthemedium-term(Exhibit14).

upside

price

risksin

Exhibit14:RiskstoOur$70-85RangeSkewtotheUpsideintheShort-TermandtotheDownsideintheMedium-Term

S/bblEstimatedBrentSpotForecastS/bbl

Source:GoldmanSachsGloballnvestmentResearch

Short-TermUpsideRisks

ThenewUSadministrationfurtherraisestheriskstoIransupply,whichhavealreadybeenelevatedduetotheIsrael-Iranconflict.InascenariowhereIransupplydropsby

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GoldmanSachs

17November2024

CommodityViews

1mb/d(0.75mb/dlesssupplythanourbasecase),reflectingforinstancetighter

sanctionsenforcementinamaximumpressurecampaign,weestimatethatBrentrisesto$83/bbl