烏干達(dá) 2023：能源政策評論-英

Uganda

2023Energy

Policy

ReviewINTERNATIONAL

ENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesIEA

membercountries:IEA

associationcountries:includingoil,gasandcoalsupplyandAustraliaAustriaArgentinaBrazildemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinitsBelgiumChinaCanadaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth

AfricaThailandUkraineCzech

RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapan31membercountries,13

associationcountriesandbeyond.KoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew

ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak

RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic

of

TürkiyeUnited

KingdomUnited

StatesThis

publication

and

anymap

included

herein

arewithout

prejudiceto

thestatus

of

or

sovereignty

overany

territory,to

thedelimitationof

internationalfrontiers

and

boundaries

andto

the

name

of

any

territory,cityor

area.The

EuropeanCommission

alsoparticipatesin

thework

of

the

IEASource:

IEA.International

Energy

AgencyWebsite:

ForewordAs

the

International

Energy

Agency

(IEA)

has

opened

its

doors

to

emerging

anddeveloping

economies,

in-depth

reviews

have

come

to

play

an

increasingly

prominent

rolein

our

bilateral

partnerships.

We

are

very

pleased

this

work

now

extends

to

Uganda,

thefirst

country

in

sub-Saharan

Africa

to

participate

in

a

comprehensive

assessment

of

itsenergysystemandpolicies.The

IEA

has

been

actively

involved

in

addressing

African

energy

issues

for

more

than

twodecades.

We

began

with

pioneering

work

on

energy

access

data

in

1999

in

our

flagshipWorldEnergy

Outlook,

but

our

efforts

have

expanded

significantly

since

then,

with

a

focusonthekey

tools

neededtoenhanceenergy

access,

economicdevelopment,

affordability,sustainability

and

energy

security.

We

hope

this

review

provides

a

strong

example

forfurthercollaborationintheregion.I

congratulate

Uganda

for

the

progress

it

has

made

over

the

past

two

decades

in

providingaccess

to

electricity

and

expanding

generation

capacity.

It

is

also

impressive

that

thecountry’s

electricity

sector

is

now

almost

fully

based

on

renewable

sources.

The

IEA

looksforward

to

continuing

to

partner

with

Uganda

as

it

builds

on

progress

in

reforming

itselectricitysectorandworkstowardsachievinguniversalenergy

access.Much

of

this

work

will

be

facilitated

by

the

newly

launched

Energy

Policy

for

Uganda,

amajor

contribution

to

the

country’s

ambitious

energy

agenda.

Notably,

Uganda

already

hasin

place

much

of

the

technical

expertise,

government

institutions

and

policy

frameworks

toreach

its

energy

goals.

It

is

also

a

leader

in

the

region

on

high-quality

energy

statistics,which

are

crucial

for

evidence-based

policy

making.

We

commend

Uganda

for

its

effortsthat

have

led

to

improved

coverage,

quality

and

timeliness

of

energy

balances

and

data,andencouragefurtherambition.For

years,

the

IEA

and

the

government

of

Uganda

have

collaborated

closely,

sharingenergy

data

and

knowledge.

Ugandan

leaders

have

participated

in

many

important

IEAevents.

This

year,

as

part

of

its

efforts

to

meet

the

goals

of

the

Paris

Agreement,

Uganda’sMinistry

of

Energy

and

Mineral

Development

also

decided

to

draw

on

the

IEA’s

expertiseto

support

the

development

of

thecountry’s

Energy

TransitionPlan.

Sofar,

the

focus

hasbeen

on

further

strengthening

Uganda’s

modelling,

energy

data

and

statistics

capacities.This

in-depth

review

–

which

takes

stock

of

the

latest

energy

trends,

assesses

Uganda’senergypoliciesandprovidespolicyrecommendations–

willhelpinformthenextsteps.The

aim

of

this

report

is

to

support

Uganda

as

it

works

to

chart

its

path

forward,

achieveits

goals

to

eradicate

energy

poverty,

develop

its

energy

resources,

promote

sustainable,clean

energy,

and

bring

prosperity

to

all

Ugandans

–

as

set

out

by

national

targets

andinternational

agreements.

My

hope

is

this

in-depth

review

will

guide

Uganda

in

its

energydevelopment

–

and

serve

as

a

tool

to

deepen

international

partnerships

at

a

moment

whenmoreareneeded.Dr.FatihBirolExecutiveDirectorInternationalEnergyAgency3Executive

summary

........................................................................................................

9Electricity......................................................................................................................9Renewableenergy.....................................................................................................10Energyefficiency........................................................................................................13Climatechangeandtheenvironment........................................................................13Investment

.................................................................................................................141.

General

energy

policy..............................................................................................

17Countryoverview

.......................................................................................................17Energysupplyanddemand

.......................................................................................19Keyinstitutionsintheenergysector

..........................................................................21Keypolicydocuments

................................................................................................23Assessment

...............................................................................................................27Recommendations.....................................................................................................292.

Electricity...................................................................................................................

31Overview....................................................................................................................31Governance

...............................................................................................................32Majorpolicydocumentsandlegislation

.....................................................................32Marketstructureandreforms.....................................................................................35Generatingcapacity...................................................................................................37Generation

.................................................................................................................41Transmission..............................................................................................................41Distribution.................................................................................................................42Cross-borderinterconnectionsandtrade...................................................................46Consumption..............................................................................................................47Tariffs.........................................................................................................................48Costreduction............................................................................................................48Nuclearpower............................................................................................................50Assessment

...............................................................................................................52Recommendations.....................................................................................................543.

Renewable

energy

....................................................................................................

57Overview....................................................................................................................57Governance

...............................................................................................................58Policyframework........................................................................................................59Feed-intariffs.............................................................................................................61Renewableenergycapacityandsupply.....................................................................63Assessment

...............................................................................................................67Recommendations.....................................................................................................694TABLE

OF

CONTENTS4.

Access

to

electricity

.................................................................................................

71Overview....................................................................................................................71Governance

...............................................................................................................73Policyframework........................................................................................................73Electrificationefforts...................................................................................................74Demandforelectricityandaffordability

......................................................................78Assessment

...............................................................................................................79Recommendations.....................................................................................................805.

Access

to

clean

cooking..........................................................................................

83Overview....................................................................................................................83Currentpoliciesandprojects......................................................................................83Thecookingsector.....................................................................................................85Apredominanceofbiomass.......................................................................................86Cleancookingsolutions

.............................................................................................89Managingaffordability................................................................................................93Assessment

...............................................................................................................94Recommendations.....................................................................................................956.

Oil

and

gas

................................................................................................................

99Overview....................................................................................................................99Governance

.............................................................................................................100Policiesandlegislation.............................................................................................100Oilreserves..............................................................................................................102Exploration...............................................................................................................103Investmentconditions

..............................................................................................105Oilpipeline

...............................................................................................................107Refinery....................................................................................................................109Consumptionandoilproductmarket.......................................................................110Liquefiedpetroleumgas...........................................................................................112Oilstorage................................................................................................................112Gas

..........................................................................................................................112Revenuemanagement.............................................................................................113Assessment

.............................................................................................................114Recommendations...................................................................................................1157.

Critical

minerals......................................................................................................

117Overview..................................................................................................................117Institutionalgovernanceforcriticalminerals

............................................................118Productionandprospects

........................................................................................118Policies.....................................................................................................................122Assessment

.............................................................................................................1255TABLE

OF

CONTENTSRecommendations...................................................................................................1268.

Energy

efficiency

....................................................................................................

129Overview..................................................................................................................129Energyconsumption

................................................................................................130Policiesandmeasures.............................................................................................131Sectortrends............................................................................................................138Financing

.................................................................................................................142Assessment

.............................................................................................................143Recommendations...................................................................................................1459.

Energy,

climate

change

and

the

environment......................................................

147Overview..................................................................................................................147Institutionalframework

.............................................................................................148Strategicframework

.................................................................................................148Climatechangemitigation........................................................................................150Energy-relatedCO2emissions

................................................................................151Climatechangeadaptation

......................................................................................152Airquality

.................................................................................................................154Deforestationandbiodiversityloss

..........................................................................154Wastemanagementandthecirculareconomy........................................................155Assessment

.............................................................................................................155Recommendations...................................................................................................15610.

Investment.............................................................................................................

159Overview..................................................................................................................159Investmentenvironment...........................................................................................160Keypublicfinancingbodiesintheenergysector

.....................................................162Currentenergyinvestmenttrends............................................................................163Assessment

.............................................................................................................165Recommendations...................................................................................................170ANNEX

A:

Organisations

visited

...............................................................................

171ANNEX

B:

Energy

balances

and

key

statistical

data...............................................

174ANNEX

C:

International

Energy

Agency

“Shared

Goals”

.......................................

178ANNEX

D:

Glossary

and

list

of

abbreviations..........................................................

180Acronymsandabbreviations....................................................................................180Unitsofmeasure......................................................................................................1826TABLE

OF

CONTENTSLIST

OF

FIGURES,

TABLES

AND

BOXESFiguresFigure1.1

Energydemandanddrivers,2000-2021

............................................................

18Figure1.2

Overviewof

Uganda’senergysystembyfuelandsector,2021

........................

19Figure1.3

TotalenergysupplybyfuelinUganda,2000-2021............................................

20Figure1.4

TotalfinalconsumptionbysectorandpercapitainUganda,2000-2021

..........

20Figure2.1

InstalledgeneratingcapacitybysourceinUganda,2000-2021.........................

38Figure2.2

ElectricitygenerationinUganda,2000-2021......................................................

41Figure2.3

Selected

distribution

share

of

total

customers,

network

and

purchase

by

thetransmissionutility(left)andlevelofnetworklossesinUganda,2021..............

44Figure2.4

Umemecustomersbytariffcategory,2021........................................................

44Figure2.5

OperationaldistributionlinesinUganda,2017...................................................

46Figure2.6

Categories

of

customers

as

a

share

of

total

clients

and

sales,

and

electricity

tariffs,Q22021

..............................................................................................................47Figure2.7PotentialsitesreviewedforanuclearpowerplantinUganda...............................

52Figure3.1

Share

of

modern

renewables

in

total

final

energy

consumption

in

selected

Africancountries,2000-2021..........................................................................................

57Figure3.2

RenewablescapacityadditionsbysourceinUganda,

2000-2021.....................

63Figure4.1

Access

to

electricity

rate

and

connections

provided

in

Uganda

(grid

connectionsandoff-gridproducts)..........................................................................................

72Figure4.2

Distribution

of

households

by

main

source

of

energy

for

lighting

in

Uganda,

2021............................................................................................................................73Figure5.1

AccesstocleancookinginUganda,2000-2022

................................................

86Figure5.2

Distributionof

householdsbyprimarycookingfuelinUganda,2021.................

86Figure5.3

LPGfinalconsumptionbysectorinUganda,2000-2021...................................

90Figure6.1

EastAfricanCrudeOilPipeline

........................................................................

108Figure6.2

Uganda’soilproductimports,2000-2021.........................................................

110Figure6.3

OilproductsconsumptioninUganda,2000-2021

............................................

111Figure6.4

OilproductsconsumptionbysectorandproductinUganda,2021..................

111Figure7.1

SelectedmineralproductioninUganda,

2017-2021

........................................

119Figure7.2

MapofmineralsandrelatedinfrastructuresinUganda....................................

120Figure7.3

NumberofregisteredminerallicencesinUganda,2017-2021

........................

121Figure7.4

Revenue

collected

from

mining

tax

and

non-tax

mining

in

Uganda,2019-2021.........................................................................................................122Figure8.1

FinalenergyconsumptioninUganda,2000-2021............................................

130Figure8.2

EnergyintensityinUgandaandselectedcountries,2000-2021

......................

131Figure8.3

SectorcontributiontoUganda’sgrossdomesticproduct,2016/17-2020/21....

138Figure8.4

FinalenergyconsumptioninbuildingsinUganda,2000-2021.........................

139Figure9.1

EmissionsfromfuelcombustionbysectorinUganda,

2000-2021

..................

147Figure9.2

EmissionsfromfuelcombustionbyfuelinUganda,2000-2021

......................

151Figure10.1

Foreign

direct

investment

in

Uganda

compared

to

regional

averages,

2012-2021..........................................................................................................................159Figure

10.2

Breakdown

of

finance

for

solar

PV

and

hydro

projects

with

private

involvement..........................................................................................................................164Figure

10.3

Illustrative

breakdown

of

risks

that

explain

country-by-country

variations

in

thelevelisedcost

ofelectricityforagivencleanenergyproject.............................

1687TABLE

OF

CONTENTSTablesTable1.1

SelectedtargetsfromUganda’sNationalEnergyPolicy2023

.............................

25Table3.1

REFiTPhase4tariffs,O&M%,capacitylimitsandpaymentperiod....................

62Table3.2

TariffceilingandreturnonequityinUganda

........................................................

62Table4.1

Energy-relatedtargetsbystrategyandplaninUganda........................................

74Table7.1

CriticalmineralareasprioritisedforexplorationanddevelopmentinUganda....

123Table

8.1

Overview

of

select

targets,

regulations,

information

measures

and

incentives

inUganda’semergingenergyefficiencyframework.............................................

134Table8.2

VehicleaveragefuelefficiencyandCO2emissions–Ugandaandglobal.........

141Table9.1

PriorityadaptationactionsfortheenergysectorinUganda

...............................

153Table10.1KeyinvestmentlegislationrelevanttotheenergysectorinUganda..................

160BoxesBox1.1ProposedprojectforanIntegratedEnergyResourceMasterPlan...........................

22Box2.1DevelopmentassistanceinthepowersectorinUganda...........................................

37Box2.2Umeme.......................................................................................................................43Box2.3IAEAMilestoneApproach..........................................................................................

50Box4.1TheParishDevelopmentModel.................................................................................

74Box4.2BeyondtheGridFundforAfrica

................................................................................

77Box5.1TheroleofcarbonfinancinginAfricancountries.......................................................

89Box5.2LiquefiedpetroleumgassubsidiesinIndiaandMorocco..........................................

91Box5.3Charcoal-to-PowerProject.........................................................................................

92Box7.1Theroleofcriticalmineralsincleanenergytransitions...........................................

118Box7.2Doexportbanscontributetodownstreamindustries?.............................................

125Box8.1Seizingtheopportunityofdigitalisationthroughenergyefficiency..........................

137Box9.1ClimateimpactsonAfricanhydropower

..................................................................

152Box10.1Theroleofdevelopmentfinanceinstitutionsanddonors

......................................

164Box10.2CostofCapitalObservatory...................................................................................

1688Executive

summaryUganda

has

set

an

ambitious

agenda

to

develop

its

substantial

energy

and

mineralresources,promote

economic

development,

end

energy

poverty,

and

lead

the

country

toa