區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長的影響因素課件

6RegionalEconomicGrowthanddevelopmenttheory6.1區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長的影響因素6.2Demand–basedtheoryThefactorofRegionalEconomicGrowth區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長的主要影響因素分解內(nèi)因外因需求供給區(qū)內(nèi)需求區(qū)外需求區(qū)內(nèi)供給區(qū)外供給區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、區(qū)域布局結(jié)構(gòu)、區(qū)域生產(chǎn)要素流動（資本、技術(shù)、人力資本等）消費、儲蓄與投資生產(chǎn)要素投入、相關(guān)生產(chǎn)技術(shù)、生產(chǎn)組織管理、經(jīng)濟規(guī)模性等因素分析：供給拉動機制需求拉動機制6.2Demand–basedthrory

(需求拉動的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長理論）Export-basetheory(North）進口替代理論投入產(chǎn)出理論自產(chǎn)自銷理論等

Export-basetheory

(需求拉動的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長理論） 1.Export-basetheory(North)

2.Tiebout’sresponse 3.economicbasetheory：乘數(shù)理論 4.ComparedtoJaneJacobs’“supplyregion”1.Context:戰(zhàn)后關(guān)心工業(yè)化和增長——經(jīng)濟增長階段論

1.1

HooverandFisher,1949,“ResearchinRegionalEconomicGrowth,”Theself–sufficientsubsistenceeconomyWithimprovementintransport:tradeandlocalspecializationAgriculturalcropsfromextensivegrazingtointensivecultivationIndustrialitionSpecializationintertiaryindustriesproducingforexport運輸成本的作用（WalterIsard,1951)

Historicallywefindthatreducedtransportrateshavetended:(1)totransformascattered,ubiquitouspatternofproductionintoanincreasinglyconcentratedone.(2)toeffectprogressivedifferentiationandselectionbetweensiteswithsuperiorandinferiorresourcesandtraderoutes.1.2Rostow,WW.TheStagesofEconomicGrowth:ANon-communistManifesto,1960.

Traditionalsocietystage為起飛創(chuàng)造前提條件階段:家庭手工業(yè)/商業(yè)， savings/capital,entrepreneurs/investment

3.起飛階段(takeoff)

conditions:1)生產(chǎn)性投資提高2）有工業(yè)部門擔任的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)高速發(fā)展

3）有利于現(xiàn)代產(chǎn)業(yè)擴張的政治，社會和制度結(jié)構(gòu)

4.成熟階段

5.高額消費階段

6.追求生活質(zhì)量階段

DouglasNorth(1955)

:

“Locationtheoryandregionaleconomicgrowth”批判區(qū)位理論和區(qū)域增長理論:關(guān)于區(qū)位的模型和關(guān)于增長的描述都有問題a.建立區(qū)域發(fā)展的階段論(stagetheory)，但他們的階段序列和經(jīng)濟史卻是斷裂的--建立在歐洲封建/自給自足型經(jīng)濟的假設(shè)， 但是，在美國從未如此：從一開始，區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟活動（采集資源，生產(chǎn)，貿(mào)易）就是直接聯(lián)系世界市場的。

b.并沒有解釋區(qū)域增長的動力。

--工業(yè)化的假設(shè)誤導(dǎo)了對區(qū)域發(fā)展的分析

2)區(qū)域發(fā)展必須放在資本主義制度框架 （假定條件：profitmaximizingopportunities，mobileproductionfactor）以美國大西北出口歷史為例:--麥/面粉加州的goldrush(1840)（thefirstfoundmarket) 1868開始到英國/1857到日本/亞洲/澳洲19世紀：一半以上出口--伐木業(yè)（Douglasfir）聯(lián)系加州的goldrush1860-1920,flourandlumberaccountedfor40-60%ofthevalueoftheregion’smanufacturing不是線性地從subsistence---------------------------

集中

3)定義exportbase:

collectivelyexportablecommoditiesofaregion.

Regionaldevelopmentwasdependentonitssuccessinproducingexportablecommodities.IntheUS,manyregionsstartedfrom1or2exportablecommodities--NoevolutionfromsubsistenceeconomyExport-baseoftenwidenedaftertransportcostshadbeenreducedDevelopmentofanexportablecommodityComparativeadvantage--reducingtransfercost(infrastructuredevelopment)--externaleconomies(specialiedmarketing.improvedcredit.atrainedlaboeforce)--technologicaldevelopment--capital

reinforceexistingexportbaseTheroleofexportbaseinshapingtheregionaleconomyDeterminingthelevelofpercapitaincomeofaregion--direct--indirect(inrelationtoresidentiaryindustrydiversityandincomefluctuation

4)增長的機制增長一定要工業(yè)化？ThecaseofOregon：農(nóng)業(yè)帶動的出口也能帶動增長1950,24%laborforceinmanufacturing—comparedtothenationalfigureof25.9%)∴農(nóng)業(yè)帶動的出口也能帶動增長5)So,aregionisdefinedbyitsdevelopmentaroundacommonexportbase. Thismakesiteconomicallyunifiedandtiestheregion’sfortunestogether.6)Whatwillinfluencethedeclineofaregion?--changingdemandsoftheoutsideworld--exhaustionofnaturalresource--increasingcostsoflandandlabor --Transportation(interregionalcompetition) --Technology --Government出路：Tobroadenexportbase,todiversifyeconomicbase.2.Tiebout’sresponse:1956

exportbase對小區(qū)域比對大區(qū)域有用—North’sanalysisisanoversimplificationforalargeregion--Howtodefinearegion?Notbyexportbase.--Sizematters.Thelargeraregionis,themoretheinternaldynamicforcescausingincomechanges.

E.g.exportonlyaccountsforaverysmall portionofUSeconomy2)

short-termv.s.long-run othersourcesofregionalgrowth:

(ofincomeandemployment)

--businessinvestment --governmentspending --residentialconstruction --non-economicmigration3)

factorendowment:

E.g.NewJersey’scoal—有煤不見得就有出口，還要看成本4)

stagetheorycounts E.g.Americaasacolony5)

exportbaseisbettertobeappliedtosatellitecitiesinthesuburbanfringe6)aregionmustdivideitsenergiesbetweenresidentiaryandexportactivitiesl

North:Reply

1)longrun

2)aregion’ssignificanceliesinitsbeinga specializedpartofthewholeso,exportbaseisusefultodefinearegion

*長江三角洲，珠江三角洲是區(qū)域嗎？有exportbase可用來定義嗎？ 3)residentiary的發(fā)展仍需外力，即出口。（是嗎？）l

Tiebout:再回應(yīng) 1)

強調(diào)otherendogenousvariables 2)

強調(diào)某種程度的closedeconomy

nocausalmechanismbetweenregionaldevelopmentandexportingcapacity. Notallexporteconomyproducesdiversity —Northismisleading3.economicbasetheory經(jīng)濟基礎(chǔ)理論

-basicsector:export;engineofthelocaleconomy.E.g.Boeing

-non-basic(local)sector:e.g.grocery,dry-cleaning,localgovernmentetc.

--basemultiplier基礎(chǔ)乘數(shù):Total/Basic(employment)

e.g.B20,000

NB40,000

T60,000

Baseratio(B/NB)=1:2

Basemultiplier(T/B)=3

參考

/~tchapin/urp5261/topics/econbase.htm

--policyimplication改良出口所需的條件，包括運輸，生產(chǎn)技術(shù)并降低勞動成本（壓低工資）

這個快樂的故事是這樣的：政府投資—增長過程—產(chǎn)業(yè)多元化—收入增加—地方儲蓄增加—投資增加—勞力移入—形成新的出口產(chǎn)業(yè)--critique

1)

理論上不完整;任何外來投資，即使是指向內(nèi)需市場，仍可以帶動區(qū)域的乘數(shù)效果。2)

到底如何區(qū)分基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)和非基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)？服務(wù)業(yè)就是非基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)嗎？3)

對增加的就業(yè)只看就業(yè)量，但每一種就業(yè)的質(zhì)不一樣，有些工作附加價值高，有些低。4)

區(qū)域外的需求如何形成？（動力？）5)

對供給持無限彈性的看法，可以完全對需求做出反應(yīng)。--是這樣嗎？實際上—故事不一定如此美好，增加的收入不一定在本地消費，有時會漏到外地去。（新竹科學(xué)園區(qū)的—到臺北消費）而關(guān)聯(lián)性也不保證在本地發(fā)生，要視新投資的特性而定（臺塑六輕，雇用外地工人）。4.ComparedtoJaneJacobs’“SupplyRegion”

Aregion’sfateisdecidedbyadistantcitymarket

烏拉圭(Uruguay)的例子

1911-1950meat,wool,leatherforEuropeanmarket

welfarestate:SwitzerlandofSouthAmerica

1953—thingsbegantogowrong

France:protectionism

CompetitionfromAustraliaandNewZealand

Importsubstitution:costtoomuch,importpartsandmaterials

exhaustedforeignreserves

buythingsoncredits

unabletopayloaninterests

bankrupt

why:

thecapitalcity,Montevideolackedtherangesofskills,thenetworksofproducers’goodsandservices,thepracticeatimprovisingandadaptingnecessarytomakeimport-replacingapracticaleconomicendeavor

inflation

unemployment,pover