2030年國家充電網(wǎng)絡(luò)報(bào)告

The2030National

ChargingNetwork:

EstimatingU.S.Light-DutyDemandfor

ElectricVehicleChargingInfrastructure

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Acknowledgments

TheauthorswouldliketoacknowledgetheJointOfficeofEnergyandTransportationandtheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy’s(DOE’s)VehicleTechnologiesOfficeforsupportingthisanalysis.SpecificthankstoDOE,U.S.DepartmentofTransportation,andJointOfficestafffortheirongoingguidance,includingJacobWard,RaphaelIsaac,PatrickWalsh,WayneKillen,RachaelNealer,LissaMyers,SuraiyaMotsinger,AlanJenn,NoelCrisostomo,KaraPodkaminer,AlexSchroeder,GabeKlein,AndrewRodgers,AndrewWishnia,andMichaelBerube.

InternalsupportattheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratorywascriticaltocompletionofthisreport,includingfromJeffGonder,MatteoMuratori,AndrewMeintz,ArthurYip,NickReinicke,JustinRickard,ElizabethStone,MichaelDeneen,JohnFarrell,ChrisGearhart,andJohneyGreen.

TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankcolleaguesattheCaliforniaEnergyCommission(MichaelNicholasandAdamDavis)andU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(SusanBurkeandMeredithCleveland)forongoingcollaborationsthathavebeensynergistictowardtheexecutionofthisanalysis,includingsupportforEVI-ProandEVI-RoadTrip.

TimelycontributionsfromAtlasPublicPolicywerenecessarytoaccuratelyestimatethemagnitudeofcharginginfrastructureannouncementsfromthepublicandprivatesectors.ThankstoSpencerBurget,NoahGabriel,andLucyMcKenzie.

Specialthankstoexternalreviewerswhoprovidedfeedbackduringvariousphasesofthiswork.Whilereviewerswerecriticaltoimprovingthequalityofthisanalysis,theviewsexpressedinthisreportarenotnecessarilyareflectionoftheir(ortheirorganization’s)opinions.Externalreviewersincluded:

CharlesSatterfield………...EdisonElectricInstitute

JamieDunckley…………………ElectricPowerResearchInstitute

PaulJ.Allen………………EnvironmentalResourcesManagement

ColinMurchieandAlexBeatonEVgo

JamieHall,AlexanderKeros,MichaelPotter,andKellyJezierskiGeneralMotors

BrianWilkie,ChristopherCoy,andRyanWheeler…………………NationalGrid

JenRoberton………NewYorkStateDepartmentofPublicService

VincentRiscica…….NewYorkStateEnergyResearch&DevelopmentAuthority

ErickKarlen……………...ShellRechargeSolutions

MadhurBoloorandMichaelMachala…………………..ToyotaResearchInstitute

NikitaDemidov……………Trillium

SusanBurke….U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,OfficeofTransportationandAirQuality

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Authors

Theauthorsofthisreportare:

EricWood,NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)

BrennanBorlaug,NREL

MattMoniot,NREL

Dong-Yeon(D-Y)Lee,NREL

YanboGe,NREL

FanYang,NREL

ZhaocaiLiu,NREL

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ListofAcronyms

battery-electricvehicle

core-basedstatisticalarea

CombinedChargingSystem

directcurrent

U.S.DepartmentofEnergy

electricvehicle

electricvehicleinfrastructureanalysistoolselectricvehiclesupplyequipment

FederalHighwayAdministrationInternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationJointOfficeofEnergyandTransportation

Level1

Level2

light-dutyvehicle

NorthAmericanChargingSpecificationNationalHouseholdTravelSurveyplug-inelectricvehicle

plug-inhybridelectricvehicle

single-familyhome

stateofcharge

TravelerAnalysisFramework

BEV

CBSA

CCS

DC

DOE

EV

EVI-X

EVSE

FHWA

ICCT

JointOffice

transportationnetworkvehiclemilestraveledzero-emissionvehicle

company

L1

L2

LDV

NACS

NHTS

PEV

PHEV

SFH

SOC

TAF

TNC

VMT

ZEV

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ExecutiveSummary

U.S.climategoalsforeconomywidenet-zerogreenhousegasemissionsby2050willrequirerapiddecarbonizationofthelight-dutyvehicle

1

fleet,andplug-inelectricvehicles(PEVs)arepoisedtobecomethepreferredtechnologyforachievingthisend(U.S.DepartmentofEnergy2023).ThespeedofthisintendedtransitiontoPEVsisevidentinactionstakenbygovernmentandprivateindustry,bothintheUnitedStatesandglobally.NewPEVsaleshavereached7%–10%oftheU.S.light-dutymarketasofearly2023(ArgonneNationalLaboratory2023).Globally,PEVsalesaccountedfor14%ofthelight-dutymarketin2022,withChinaandEuropeat29%and21%,respectively(IEA2023).A2021executiveorder(ExecutiveOfficeofthePresident2021)targets50%ofU.S.passengercarandlighttrucksalesaszero-emissionvehicles(ZEVs)by2030,andCaliforniahasestablishedrequirementsfor100%light-dutyZEVsalesby2035(CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard2022),withmanystatesadoptingorconsideringsimilarregulations(Khatib2022).ThesegoalsweresetpriortopassageofthelandmarkU.S.BipartisanInfrastructureLawandInflationReductionAct,whichprovidesubstantialpolicysupportthroughtaxcreditsandinvestmentgrants(ElectrificationCoalition2023).Companiesintheautomotiveindustryhavecommittedtothistransition,withmostcompaniesrapidlyexpandingofferings(BartlettandPreston2023)andmanypledgingtobecomeZEV-onlymanufacturers.TeslahasbeenaZEV-onlycompanysinceitsinceptionin2003;Audi,Fiat,Volvo,andMercedes-BenzaretargetingZEV-onlysalesby2030;andGeneralMotorsandHondaaretargetingZEV-onlysalesby2035and2040,respectively(BloombergNewEnergyFinance2022).Thecombinationofpolicyactionandindustrygoal-settinghasledanalyststoprojectthatby2030,PEVscouldaccountfor48%–61%oftheU.S.light-dutymarket(Slowiketal.2023).Thistransitionisunprecedentedinthehistoryoftheautomotiveindustryandwillrequiresupportacrossmultipledomains,includingadequatesupplychains,favorablepublicpolicy,broadconsumereducation,proactivegridintegration,and(germanetothisreport)anationalchargingnetwork.

AsestablishedbytheInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct,alsoknownastheBipartisanInfrastructureLaw,theJointOfficeofEnergyandTransportation(JointOffice)issettingthevisionforanationalchargingnetworkthatisconvenient,affordable,reliable,andequitabletoenableafuturewhereeveryonecanrideanddriveelectric.ThisreportsupportsthevisionoftheJointOfficebypresentingaquantitativeneedsassessment

2

foranationalchargingnetworkcapableofsupporting30–42millionPEVsontheroadby2030.

3

1Thisstudyconsiderspersonallyowned,light-dutyvehicleswithgrossvehicleweightratingof8,500poundsorless.Importantly,thisdefinitionincludesvehiclesdrivenfortransportationnetworkcompanies(ride-hailing)butexcludesmotorcycles,light-dutycommercialvehicles,andClass2band3worktrucks,theimplicationsofwhicharediscussedinSection

4

ofthisreport.

2ThisstudyispresentedasaneedsassessmentwherethenationalchargingnetworkissizedrelativetosimulateddemandfromahypotheticalPEVfleet.Thisisslightlydifferentfromaninfrastructureforecast,whichmightmakeconsiderationsforchargingprovidersbeingincentivized(byprivateinvestorsorpublicfunding)tofuture-proofinvestments,installcharginginquantitiesfarexceedingdemand,ordeploychargingaspartofalargerbusinessmodelthatconsidersutilizationasasecondarymetricofsuccess.

3NationalPEVfleetsizescenarioshavebeendevelopedusingtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory’sTransportationEnergy&MobilityPathwayOptions(TEMPO)modelandareconsistentwithmultiple2030scenariosdevelopedbythirdparties.PleaseseeSection

2.2.1

foradditionaldetails.

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EstimatinginfrastructureneedsatthenationallevelisachallenginganalyticproblemthatrequiresquantifyingtheneedsoffuturePEVdriversinvarioususecases,underregion-specificenvironmentalconditions,andwithconsiderationforthebuiltenvironment.ThisanalysisleveragestheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory’ssuiteofelectricvehicleinfrastructureanalysistools(EVI-X)andthebestavailablereal-worlddatadescribingPEVadoptionpatterns,vehicletechnology,residentialaccess,travelprofiles,andchargingbehaviortoestimatefuturechargingneeds.MultiplePEVchargingusecasesareconsidered,includingtypicalneedstoaccommodatedailydrivingforthosewithandwithoutresidentialaccess,corridor-basedcharging

4

supportinglong-distanceroadtrips,andride-hailingelectrification.Whiletheanalysisisnationalinscope,thesimulationframeworkenablesinspectionofresultsbystateandcity,withparametricsensitivityanalysisusedtotestarangeofassumptions.Thismodelingapproachisusedtodrawthefollowingconclusions:

?Convenientandaffordablechargingat/nearhomeiscoretotheecosystembutmustbecomplementedbyreliablepublicfastcharging.IndustryfocusgroupswithprospectivePEVbuyersconsistentlyrevealthatconsumerswantchargingthatisasfastaspossible.However,consumerpreferencestendtoshiftafteraPEVpurchaseismadeandlivedexperiencewithchargingisaccumulated.HomecharginghasbeenshowntobethepreferenceofmanyPEVownersduetoitscostandconvenience.Thisdichotomysuggeststhatreliablepublicfastchargingiskeytoconsumerconfidence,butalsothatasuccessfulchargingecosystemwillprovidetherightbalanceoffastchargingandconvenientdestinationchargingintheappropriatelocations.

5

Usingsophisticatedplanningtools,thisanalysisfindsthatanationalnetworkin2030couldbecomposedof26–35millionportstosupport30–42millionPEVs.Foramid-adoptionscenarioof33millionPEVs,anationalnetworkof28millionportscouldconsistof:

o26.8millionprivatelyaccessibleLevel1andLevel2chargingportslocatedatsingle-familyhomes,multifamilyproperties,andworkplaces

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o182,000publiclyaccessiblefastchargingportsalonghighwaycorridorsandinlocalcommunities

o1millionpubliclyaccessibleLevel2chargingportsprimarilylocatednearhomesandworkplaces(includinginhigh-densityneighborhoods,atofficebuildings,andatretailoutlets).

Incontrasttogasstations,whichtypicallyrequirededicatedstopstopubliclocations,thePEVchargingnetworkhasthepotentialtoprovidecharginginlocationsthatdonot

4ThisstudydefinescorridorsasallroadswithintheNationalHighwaySystem(FederalHighwayAdministration2017),includingtheInterstateHighwaySystem,aswellasotherroadsimportanttonationaltransportation.

5ThisstudyconsidersLevel1andLevel2alternating-current(AC)chargersratedbetween1.4and19.2kWasdestinationchargersforlight-dutyvehicles.Direct-current(DC)chargerswithnominalpowerratingsbetween150and350+kWareconsideredfastchargersforlight-dutyvehiclesinthiswork.ItistheopinionoftheauthorsthatreferringtoallDCchargingas“DCfastcharging”(DCFC)(asistypicallydone)isinappropriategiventhattheuseof“fast”asadescriptorultimatelydependsonthecapacityofthebatterybeingcharged.Aslargercapacitylight-dutyPEVsenterthemarketandmedium-andheavy-dutymodeloptionsemerge,itislikelythecasethatsomeDCchargerswillactuallybeusedtoslowlychargePEVs.Thus,thecommonpracticeofreferringtoallDCchargingasDCFCisnoticeablyabsentfromthisreport.

6ThisanalysisemploysanovelcharginginfrastructuretaxonomythatconsidersworkplacechargingasamixofpubliclyandprivatelyaccessibleinfrastructureatavarietyoflocationtypesasdiscussedinSection

2.3.2.

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requireanadditionaltriporstop.Chargingatlocationswithlongdwelltimes(at/nearhome,work,orotherdestinations)hasthepotentialtoprovidedriverswithamoreconvenientexperience.ThisnetworkmustincludereliablefastchargingsolutionstosupportPEVusecasesnoteasilyenabledbydestinationcharging,includinglong-distancetravelandride-hailing,andtomakeelectricvehicleownershipattainableforthosewithoutreliableaccesschargingwhileathomeoratwork.

?Fastchargingservesmultipleusecases,andtechnologyisevolvingrapidly.Themajorityofthe182,000fastchargingports(65%)simulatedinthemid-adoptionscenariomeettheneedsofthosewithoutaccesstoreliableovernightresidentialcharging(estimatedas3millionvehiclesby2030inthemid-adoptionscenario).Supportforride-hailingdriversandtravelersmakinglong-distancetripsaccountsfortheremainderofsimulatedfastchargingdemand(21%and14%,respectively).Whilemostnear-termfastchargingdemandissimulatedasbeingmetby150-kWDCchargers,advancesinbatterytechnologyareexpectedtostimulatedemandforhigher-powercharging.Weestimatethatby2030,DCchargersratedforatleast350kWwillbethemostprevalenttechnologyacrossthenationalfastchargingnetwork.

?Thesizeandcompositionofthe2030nationalpublicchargingnetworkwillultimatelydependonevolvingconsumerbehaviorandwillvarybycommunity.

Whilegrowthinalltypesofchargingisnecessary,theeventualsizeandcompositionofthenationalpublicchargingnetworkwillultimatelydependonthenationalrateofPEVadoption,PEVpreferencesacrossurban,suburban,andrurallocations,accesstoresidential/overnightcharging,andindividualchargingpreferences.Sensitivityanalysissuggeststhatthesize(asmeasuredbynumberofports)ofthe2030nationalpublicchargingnetworkcouldvarybyupto50%(excludingprivatelyaccessibleinfrastructure)byvaryingtheshareofplug-inhybrids,driverchargingetiquette,andaccesstoprivateworkplacecharging(seealternatescenariospresentedinSection

3.3

).Additionally,thenationalnetworkisexpectedtovarydramaticallybycommunity.Forexample,denselypopulatedareaswillrequiresignificantinvestmentstosupportthosewithoutresidentialaccessandride-hailingelectrification,whilemoreruralareasareexpectedtorequirefastchargingalonghighwaystosupportlong-distancetravelforthosepassingthrough.

?ContinuedinvestmentsinU.S.charginginfrastructurearenecessary.Acumulative

nationalcapitalinvestmentof$53–$127billion

7

incharginginfrastructureisneededby2030(includingprivateresidentialcharging)tosupport33millionPEVs.Thelargerangeofpotentialcapitalcostsfoundinthisstudyisaresultofvariableandevolvingequipmentandinstallationcostsobservedwithintheindustryacrosschargingnetworks,locations,andsitedesigns.Theestimatedcumulativecapitalinvestmentincludes:

o$22–$72billionforprivatelyaccessibleLevel1andLevel2chargingports

o$27–$44billionforpubliclyaccessiblefastchargingports

o$5–$11billionforpubliclyaccessibleLevel2chargingports.

Thecostofgridupgradesanddistributedenergyresourceshavebeenexcludedfromtheseestimates.Whiletheseexcludedcostscanbesignificantinmanycasesandwill

7Thescopeofcostestimatescanbegenerallydefinedascapitalexpensesforequipmentandinstallationnecessarytosupportvehiclecharging.PleaserefertoSection

2.3.4

foradditionaldetail.

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ultimatelybecriticalinbuildingoutthenationalchargingnetwork,theytendtobesite-specificandhavebeendeemedoutofscopeforthisanalysis.

?ExistingannouncementsputtheUnitedStatesonapathtomeet2030investmentneeds.Thisreportestimatesthata$31–$55-billioncumulativecapitalinvestmentinpubliclyaccessiblecharginginfrastructureisnecessarytosupportamid-adoptionscenarioof33millionPEVsontheroadby2030.AsofMarch2023,weestimate$23.7billionofcapitalhasbeenannouncedforpubliclyaccessiblelight-dutyPEVcharginginfrastructurethroughtheendofthedecade,

8

includingfromprivatefirms,thepublicsector(includingfederal,state,andlocalgovernments),andelectricutilities.Publicandprivateinvestmentsinpubliclyaccessiblecharginginfrastructurehaveacceleratedinrecentyears.Ifsustainedwithlong-termmarketcertaintygroundedinacceleratingconsumerdemand,thesepublicandprivateinvestmentswillputtheUnitedStatesonapathtomeetingtheinfrastructureneedssimulatedinthisreport.Existingandfutureannouncementsmaybeabletoleveragedirectandindirectincentivestodeploycharginginfrastructurethroughavarietyofprograms,includingfromtheInflationReductionActandtheLowCarbonFuelStandard,ultimatelyextendingthereachofannouncedinvestments.

Whilethisanalysispresentsaneeds-basedassessmentwherecharginginfrastructureisbroughtonlinesimultaneoustogrowthinthevehiclefleet,actualcharginginfrastructurewilllikelybenecessarybeforedemandforchargingmaterializes.Thepositionthatinfrastructureinvestmentshould“l(fā)ead”vehicledeploymentisbasedontheunderstandingthatmanydriverswillneedtoseechargingavailableatthelocationstheyfrequentandalongthehighwaystheytravelbeforebecomingconfidentinthepurchaseofanelectricvehicle(Muratorietal.2020).Ontheotherhand,infrastructureinvestmentshouldbecarefulnottoleadvehicledeploymenttothepointofcreatingprolongedperiodsofpoorutilization,therebyjeopardizingthefinancialviabilityofinfrastructureoperators.

9

Theseconsiderationssuggestthebalanceofsupplyanddemandforchargingshouldbecloselymonitoredatthelocallevelandthatstepsshouldbetakentoenabletheefficientdeploymentofcharging(definedasminimizingsoftcosts[NelderandRogers2019]),includingstreamlinedpermittingandutilityserviceconnectionprocesses(Hernandez2022).Whilenotthecasetoday,anenvironmentwhereinfrastructurecanbedeployedefficientlyenablestheindustrytoresponsivelybalancethesupplyofinfrastructuresubjecttoforecastsforunprecedentedincreasesindemand.

Thisstudyleadsustoreflectonhowcharginginfrastructureplanninghasoftenbeenanalogizedtoapyramid,withchargingathomeasthefoundation,publicfastchargingasthesmallestpartofthenetworkatthetipofthepyramid,anddestinationchargingawayfromhomeoccupyingthemiddleofthepyramid.Whilethisconcepthasservedausefulpurposeovertheyears,werecommendanewconceptualmodel.Thebalanceofpublicversusprivatechargingandfast

8BasedoninvestmenttrackingconductedbyAtlasPublicPolicy.

9Whileutilizationisakeymetrictomoststationowners,itisnottheonlymetricofsuccess.Businessmodelsunderlyingchargingnetworksarecomplexandevolving,withsomestationscollocatedwithmorelucrativeretailactivities(asisthecasewithmostgasstationstodayofferingfuelatlowermarginsthanitemsintheconveniencestore)andsomestationsdeployedatalosstohelp“complete”thenetworkinareascriticalforenablinginfrequent,long-distancetravel.Businessrelationshipsbetweenchargingnetworks,automakers,advertisers,andsitehostsalsomakeitdifficulttomeasurethesuccessofanindividualstationfromutilizationalone.

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chargingversusdestinationchargingsuggestsaplanningphilosophyakintoatree,asshownin

FigureES-1

.

Aswithatree,therearepartsofthenationalchargingnetworkthatarevisibleandthosethatarehidden.Publicchargingisthevisiblepartofthenetworkthatcanbeseenalonghighways,atpopulardestinations,andthroughdataaccessibleonline.Privatechargingisthehiddenpartofthenetworktuckedawayinpersonalgarages,atapartmentcomplexes,andatcertaintypesofworkplaces.Thisprivatenetworkisakintotherootsofatree,asitisfoundationaltotherestofthesystemandanenablerforgrowthinmorevisiblelocations.

FigureES-1.Conceptualillustrationofnationalcharginginfrastructureneeds

Ifaccesstoprivatechargingaretherootsofthesystem,areliablepublicfastchargingnetworkisthetrunk,asitbenefitsfromaccesstochargingathomeandotherprivatelocations(akeysellingpointofPEVs)andultimatelyhelpsgrowthesystembymakingPEVownershipmoreconvenient(enablingroadtripsandsupportingthosewithoutresidentialaccess).Whilefastchargingisestimatedtobearelativelysmallpartofthenationalnetworkintermsofnumberoftotalports,itrequiressignificantinvestmentandisvitaltoenablingfuturegrowthbyassuringdriverstheywillbeabletochargequicklywhenevertheyneedorwant.

Thelastpartofthesystemisabroadsetofpubliclyaccessibledestinationcharginglocationsindenseneighborhoods,officebuildings,andretailoutletswherethespeedofchargingcanbedesignedtomatchtypicalparkingtimes(“right-speeding”).Thisnetworkissimilartothebranchesofatreeinthatitsexistenceiscontingentonabroadprivatenetworkandareliablefastchargingnetwork.Aswiththebranchesofatree,thepublicdestinationchargingnetworkisill-equippedtogrowwithoutthesupportofchargingelsewhere.

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Thisanalysisenvisionsafuturenationalchargingnetworkthatisstrategicinlocatingtherightamountofcharging,intherightlocations,withappropriatechargingpower.EnsuringthatthisinfrastructureisreliablewillbeessentialtoestablishingdriverconfidenceandacceleratingwidespreadadoptionofPEVs.AsuccessfulnationalchargingnetworkwillpositionPEVstoprovideasuperiordrivingexperience,lowertotalcostofownershipfordrivers,becomeprofitableforindustryparticipants,andenablegridintegration,allwhilemeetingU.S.climategoals.

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TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary v

1.Introduction 1

1.1.CurrentStateofU.S.PEVandEVSEMarkets 2

1.2.RecentChargingInfrastructureInvestmentandAnalysisStudies 3

1.3.EquityConsiderations 4

1.4.ReportMotivationandStructure 5

2.AnIntegratedApproachforMultipleLDVUseCases 6

2.1.ModelingPhilosophyandSimulationPipeline 8

2.1.1.EVI-Pro:ChargingDemandsforDailyTravel 9

2.1.2.EVI-RoadTrip:ChargingDemandsforLong-DistanceTravel 10

2.1.3.EVI-OnDemand:ChargingDemandsforRide-HailingPEVs 11

2.1.4.Utilization-BasedNetworkSizing 12

2.2.Demand-SideConsiderations:DefiningPEVUseCaseScenarios 13

2.2.1.PEVAdoptionandFleetComposition 15

2.2.2.PEVTechnologyAttributes 18

2.2.3.ResidentialChargingAccess(There’sNoPlaceLikeHome) 20

2.2.4.DrivingPatterns 23

2.2.5.ChargingBehavior 27

2.3.Supply-SideConsiderations:ChargingNetworkTerminology,Taxonomy,Utilization,

andCost 28

2.3.1.EVSETerminology 28

2.3.2.EVSETaxonomy 29

2.3.3.NetworkUtilization 30

2.3.4.Cost 33

3.TheNationalChargingNetworkof2030 35

3.1.2030ResultsbyEVSETaxonomy,PEVUseCase,andRegion 35

3.1.1.ResultsbyEVSETaxonomy 35

3.1.2.ResultsbyPEVUseCase 37

3.1.3.ResultsbyRegion 40

3.2.NetworkGrowthFrom2022to2030 49

3.3.AlternateScenarios 51

4.Discussion 56

4.1.PhilosophicalContribution 56

4.2.ModelingUncertainty 57

4.3.CostEstimateConsiderations 58

4.4.CriticalTopicsforFutureResearch 59

4.5.AccessingEVI-XCapabilities 60

References 61

Appendix:2022ModelingComparison 67

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ListofFigures

FigureES-1.Conceptualillustrationofnationalcharginginfrastructureneeds ix

Figure1.SharedsimulationpipelineintegratingEVI-Pro,EVI-RoadTrip,andEVI-OnDemand 9

Figure2.EVI-Problockdiagramforchargingbehaviorsimulationsandnetworkdesign 10

Figure3.EVI-RoadTripblockdiagramfortrafficgeneration,chargingbehaviorsimulations,andnetwork

design 11

Figure4.EVI-OnDemandblockdiagramfordriversimulationsandrelatedassumptions 12

Figure5.Conceptualdiagramillustratingindependentdemandestimations,demandaggregation,and

integratednetworkdesign 12

Figure6.CompositehourlydemandforDCchargingbyusecaseforanillustrativeregion 13

Figure7.U.S.nationallight-dutyPEVstockunderthreeadoptionscenarios 16

Figure8.Assumedspatialdistributionof33millionPEVsin2030byCBSAandstate 17

Figure9.Spatialdistributionofnew(2019–2022)LDVregistrationsbybodytype 18

Figure10.ResidentialchargingaccessibilityscenariosasafunctionofPEVstockshare.Intheboxplot

figure,theboxreflectstheinnerquartilerange(25%–75%),withthehorizontalline

reflectingthemedianvalue.Whiskersrepresentthe5thand95thpercentilevalues,

respectively 21

Figure11.Likelihoodofovernightchargingaccessforride-hailingdriversforthebaselinescenario

acrossallmetropolitanCBSAs 22

Figure12.2017NHTSau