專業(yè)英語物流和供應鏈管理

Chapter4

Strategiclead-timemanagement第一頁，共七十一頁。Thischapter：Exploresthe‘costoftime’andthedriversoftime-basedcompetition;shorteningproductlifecycles,customers’desireforreducedinventoriesandthedangersofbeingforecastdependentinanincreasinglyvolatilemarketplace.探討時間成本和時間競爭的驅動力；正在不斷縮短的產(chǎn)品生命周期，客戶減少庫存的要求，在動蕩的市場環(huán)境下過分依賴預測的種種風險。第二頁，共七十一頁。Examinestheconceptofleadtime,theorder-to-deliverycycle,itscomponentsandtheneedtoconsiderthewidercontextoftheorder–to-cashcycle.分析前置時間、訂單周期的概念及其構成要素，從更大范圍來考察訂貨變現(xiàn)周期。Looksathowthereductionofleadtimescanimpactonthegoalsoflogisticspipelinemanagement.研究縮短前置時間是如何影響物流渠道管理目標的。第三頁，共七十一頁。Outlinessomeofthewaysinwhichinadequatesystemsdesigncanlengthenleadtimesandengineercostratherthanvalueintothelogisticsprocess.概括了一些不恰當?shù)南到y(tǒng)設計方法，它們延長了前置時間，并增加了設計成本，卻對物流過程的增值貢獻不大。introducestheconceptofthelead-timegap,offeringanumberofsuggestionsforleadtime.介紹前置時間差的概念，提出一些縮短前置時間的建議。第四頁，共七十一頁。Compendium1.Time-basedcompetition2.Theconceptofleadtime3.Logisticspipelinemanagement4.Logisticsvalueengineering5.Thelead-timegap6.Summary第五頁，共七十一頁。1.Time-basedcompetition時間競爭第六頁，共七十一頁。

Timeismoney.AsfarascostisConcernedthereisAdirectrelationshipBetweenthelengthOfthelogisticspipelineAndtheinventorythatIslockedupinit.首先，就成本而言，物流渠道的長度與渠道中的存貨數(shù)量有直接的關系。第七頁，共七十一頁。Secondly,longleadtimesmeanaslowerresponsetocustomerrequirements.其次，過長的前置時間意味著對客戶需求反應的延遲。第八頁，共七十一頁。Customersinallmarkets,industrialorconsumer,areincreasinglytime-sensitive.第九頁，共七十一頁。Question1

Whatarethepressuresleadingtothegrowthoftime-sensitivemarkets?第十頁，共七十一頁。Customers’driveforforreducedinventoriesVolatilemarketmakingrelianceonforecastsDangerousShorteninglifeCyclesTime-sensitivemarket不斷縮短的產(chǎn)品生命周期客戶降低庫存的需求由于市場多變，過于依賴預測很危險第十一頁，共七十一頁。

Theconceptoftheproductlifecycle:Formanyproducts,thereisarecognizablepatternofsalesfromlaunchthroughtofinaldecline.(1)Shorteninglifecycles許多產(chǎn)品從投入市場到最后淡出市場，其銷量遵循一個公認的模式。第十二頁，共七十一頁。TheproductlifecycleSales(￡)introductiongrowthmaturitysaturationdeclinetime導入期成長期成熟期飽和期衰退期產(chǎn)品生命周期第十三頁，共七十一頁。2.Customers’driveforreducedinventoryoneofthemostpronouncedphenomenaofrecentyearshasbeenthealmostuniversalmovebycompaniestoreducetheirinventories.這些年，一個最明顯的現(xiàn)象就是全球所有的企業(yè)都在著手降低它們的庫存。客戶降低庫存的需求第十四頁，共七十一頁。Question1Whatisthedifferencebetweentraditionalandmodernwaystoservicecustomerswhorequirejust-in-timedeliveries?第十五頁，共七十一頁。Manycompaniesstillthinkthattheonlywaytoservicecustomerswhorequirejust-in-timedeliveriesisforthem,thesupplier,tocarrytheinventoryinsteadofthecustomer.Insteadwhatisneededisforthesuppliertosubstituteresponsivenessforinventorywheneverpossible.許多公司仍然認為，給客戶提供及時配送服務的唯一方法，就是只能由供應商代替客戶持有庫存。其實作為供應商真正需要的是：在必要的時候用快速反應來代替大量的庫存。第十六頁，共七十一頁。Question2Howtoachieveresponsiveness?Why?第十七頁，共七十一頁。

Responsivenessessentiallyisachievedthroughtimecompressioninthesupplychain.第十八頁，共七十一頁。

TimecompressionServiceenhancementCostreduction壓縮時間完善服務縮減成本Breakingfreeoftheclassicservice/costtrade-off打破傳統(tǒng)的服務、成本權衡關系第十九頁，共七十一頁。3.Volatilemarketmakingreliance

onforecastsdangerous

QuestionWhat’sthecontinuingproblemformostorganizationsaccordingtotext?What’stherootcauseoftheseproblems?由于市場多變，過于依賴預測很危險第二十頁，共七十一頁。Acontinuingproblemformostorganizationsistheinaccuracyofforecast.Whilstmanyforecastingerrorsaretheresultofinappropriateforecastingmethodologytherootcauseoftheseproblemsisthatforecasterrorincreasesasledtimeincreases.第二十一頁，共七十一頁。time+-ForecasterrorForecasterrorandplanninghorizons預測誤差和計劃水平第二十二頁，共七十一頁。2.Theconceptofleadtime第二十三頁，共七十一頁。Question

What’sthemeaningofleadtimefromthecustomer’sviewpointandfromthesupplier’sperspectiverespectively?第二十四頁，共七十一頁。Fromthecustomers’viewpointTheelapsedtimefromordertodelivery.Fromthesuppliers’viewpointThetimeittakestoconvertanorderIntocash.從發(fā)出訂單到收到貨物的這段時間。從接受訂單到收回現(xiàn)金的時間第二十五頁，共七十一頁。(1)Theorder-to-deliverycycleCustomerPlacesorderOrderprocessingOrderentryOrderassemblyTransportOrderreceivedThecomponentsofordercycletime客戶訂單提交訂單錄入訂單處理訂單組貨運輸訂貨到達第二十六頁，共七十一頁。Totalordercyclewithvariability1.Ordercommunication2.Orderentryandprocessing3.Orderpickingorproduction5.Customerreceiving4.transportationtotal3Timerange1to5daysTimerange1to3days2Timerange1to9days53Timerange1to5days2Timerange1to3days5days25days15運輸訂單錄入及處理按單揀選或生產(chǎn)客戶接受訂貨前溝通訂單履行周期的變動程度第二十七頁，共七十一頁。Inthosesituationswhereordersarenotmetfromstockbutmayhavetobemanufactured,assembledorsourcedfromexternalvendors,thenclearlyleadtimeswillbeevenfurtherextendedwiththepossibilityofstillgreatervariationsintotalorder-to-deliverytime.第二十八頁，共七十一頁。Leadtimecomponent.OrderingreceptionleadtinePlanningleadtimeProcessingleadtimeMaterialsplanningandpurchaseleadtimesupplierleadtinetransportleadtineReceptionandinspectionleadtineAssemblyreleaseandorderpickingWaitingtimesProcessingtimesTransporttimetonextstage(e.g.toinventoryassembly)Dispatchpreparationtime(documents,packages)TransporttimetocustomerCommercialAndplanningLeadtimeMaterialsLeadtimesAssemblyLeadtimesDistributionLeadtimesInstallationLeadtimes商業(yè)和計劃前置時間原材料前置時間匯總前置時間配送前置時間安裝前置時間前置時間構成要素第二十九頁，共七十一頁。(2)Thecash-to-cashcycleQuestion

What’sthebasicconcernofanyorganization?

whatisruleofthumb?第三十頁，共七十一頁。CumulativeLeadtime[procurementTopayment]RawmaterialstockSubassemblyproductionIntermediatestockProductassemblyFinishedstockatCentralwarehouseIn-transitRegionaldistributionCentralstockCustomerordercycle累積的前置時間（從采購到付款）Strategiclead-timemanagement第三十一頁，共七十一頁。

Thelongerthepipelinefromsourceofmaterialtothefinaluserthelessresponsivetochangesindemandthesystemwillbe.從原材料到最終使用者的渠道越長，系統(tǒng)就越缺乏對需求變動的應變能力第三十二頁，共七十一頁。Anapproximateruleofthumbsuggeststhattheamountofsafetystockinapipelinevarieswiththesquarefootofthepipelinelength.一個類似于“大拇指”的規(guī)則指出，安全庫存數(shù)量的多少取決于渠道長度的平方根。第三十三頁，共七十一頁。

3.logisticspipelinemanagement第三十四頁，共七十一頁。Question1

Howtocontrollogisticsleadtimessuccessfully?第三十五頁，共七十一頁。Thekeytothesuccessfulcontrolofthelogisticsleadtimeispipelinemanagement.成功控制物流前置時間的關鍵是實施物流渠道管理。第三十六頁，共七十一頁。Question2

Whatarethegoalsofthepipelinemanagement?第三十七頁，共七十一頁。ThegoalsofthepipelinemanagementgoalsLowercostsHigherqualityMoreflexibilityFasterresponsetime更低的成本更高的質量高強的靈活性更快的反應速度第三十八頁，共七十一頁。HowtoachievethesegoalsManagethesupplychainasanentityandseekingtoreducethepipelinelengthand/orcosttospeeduptheflowthroughthatpipeline.Tofindwaysinwhichtheratioofvalue-addedtocost-addedtimeinthepipelinecanbeimproved.將供應鏈作為一個整體進行管理，并縮短整個渠道的長度，同時（或者）加速物品在渠道中的流動。找到可以提高增值時間與成本增加時間比率的方法。第三十九頁，共七十一頁。Value-addingtime(time,placeandformutility)Cost-addingtime(promotion,storageandtransportcostandthetimecostofmoney)RawmaterialstockproductionFinishedstockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryCost-addedversusvalue-addedtime引起價值增加和成本增加的活動（時間、地點和形態(tài)效用）增值時間原材料庫存生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)成品庫存運輸區(qū)域庫存客戶配送Cost-addedversusvalue-addedtime

成本增加時間（促銷、倉儲和運輸成本及時間成本）第四十頁，共七十一頁。Value-addingtimeRawmaterialstockproductionFinishedstockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryRawmaterialstockproductionFinishedstockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryCost-addingtimeReducingnon-value-addingtimeimprovesserviceandreducescost通過減少非增值時間來提高服務水平并降低成本第四十一頁，共七十一頁。3.Logisticsvalueengineering第四十二頁，共七十一頁。Manybusinesshaveinvestedheavilyinautomationinthefactorywiththeaimofreducingthroughputtimes.Howeveritisparadoxicalthatmanyofthosesamebusinessthathavespentmillionsofpoundsonautomationtospeedupthetimeittakestomanufactureaproductarethencontenttoletitsitinadistributioncentreorwarehouseforweekswaitingtobesold.第四十三頁，共七十一頁。Therequirementistolookacrossthedifferentstagesinthesupplychaintoseehowtimeasawholecanbereducedthroughreengineeringthewaythechainisstructured.第四十四頁，共七十一頁。

Example1:Planningcycle/manufacturingleadtimeExample2:ForecastingandorderingofsuppliersExample3:WarehousepickinganddistributionOnepointInsomanycasesitispossibletofindconsiderableOpportunityfortotallead-timereduction,oftenthroughSomeverysimplechangesinprocedure.第四十五頁，共七十一頁。4.Thelead-timegap第四十六頁，共七十一頁。Question1

Accordingtothetext,mostorganizationsfaceafundamentalproblem,whatisit?Thetimeittakestoprocure,makeanddeliverthefinishedproducttoacustomerislongerthanthetimethecustomerispreparedtowaitforit.Thisisthebasisofthelead-timegap.第四十七頁，共七十一頁。Thelead-timegapprocurementCustomer’sordercycledeliverymanufacturingLogisticsleadtimeThelead-timegapOrderfulfillment采購生產(chǎn)配送物流前置時間客戶訂貨周期前置時間差訂單履行第四十八頁，共七十一頁。Question2

What’sthecustomer’sordercycle?Thelengthoftimethatthecustomerispreparetowait,fromwhentheorderisplacedthroughtowhenthegoodsarereceived.

第四十九頁，共七十一頁。

Thecompetitiveconditionsofthemarketaswellasthenatureoftheproductwillinfluencethecustomer’swillingnesstowait.Thefactorsthatinfluencethecustomer’swillingnesstowait:

第五十頁，共七十一頁。

Howtoclosethelead-timegap?shorteninglogisticsleadtimeMovethecustomer’sordercyclecloserbygainingearlierwarningofrequirementsthroughimprovedvisibilityofdemand.縮短物流前置時間通過提高需求的可見性，盡量把客戶訂貨周期調整到與早期得到的需求信息更接近。Question3第五十一頁，共七十一頁。

Allthelogisticsprocessescanbeviewedasanetworkofinter-linkedactivitiesthatcanbeoptimizedasawholebyfocusingontotalthroughputtime.Anyattempttomanagebyoptimizingindividualelementsoractivitiesintheprocesswillleadtoaless-than-optimalresultoverall.

所有的物流過程都能被看做是由各種具有內在聯(lián)系的活動所形成的一個網(wǎng)絡，要想優(yōu)化這個網(wǎng)絡，必須要通過調整總體運營時間才能得以實現(xiàn)。而單純通過優(yōu)化個別要素或過程中個別活動只能得到一個次優(yōu)化的結果。（1）reducinglogisticslead-time第五十二頁，共七十一頁。Question4

What’sOPT?what’sitsessence?AsignificantcontributiontothewayweviewlogisticsprocesseshasbeenmadebyGoldrattwhohasdevelopedthetheoryofconstraints(約束理論)whichismoreusuallyknownasOptimizedProductionTechnology（生產(chǎn)技術優(yōu)化理論）(OPT).TheessenceofOPTisthatallactivitiesinalogisticschaincanbecategorizedaseither‘bottlenecks'or‘non-bottlenecks’.OPT——把一個物流鏈中的所有活動劃分為瓶頸類或非瓶頸類。第五十三頁，共七十一頁。Question5

Whatisabottleneck?Abottleneckistheslowestactivityinachainandwhilstitmayoftenbeamachine,itcouldalsobeapartoftheinformationflowsuchasorderprocessing.瓶頸是指整個鏈中最慢的活動，它可以是一臺機器，也可以是像訂單處理一樣的信息流的一部分。第五十四頁，共七十一頁。Furtheropportunitiesforpipelinetimereductioncannormallybefoundattheinterfacewithsuppliers’logisticssystem.第五十五頁，共七十一頁。(2)ImprovingvisibilityofdemandTheideathatitcouldbepossibleto‘extend’thecustomer’sordercyclemayatfirstsightseemimplausible.No,whatismeantbyextendingthecustomer’sordercycleisthatweshouldseektoobtainsignificantlyearlierwarningsofthecustomer’srequirement.第五十六頁，共七十一頁。Whatwefrequentlyfindisthatfirstofallthedemandpenetrationpointistoofardownthepipelineandthatsecondly,realdemandishiddenfromviewandallwetendtoseeareorders.Boththesepointsneedfurtherexplanation;firstlytheconceptofthedemandpenetrationpoint.第五十七頁，共七十一頁。Question

1What’sthedemandpenetrationpoint?

Thedefinitionofthedemandpenetrationpointisthatitoccursatthatpointinthelogisticschainwhererealdemandmeetstheplan.Upstreamfromthispointeverythingisdrivenbyaforecastand/oraplan.Downstreamwecanrespondtocustomerdemand.在物流鏈中需求與計劃達成一致的點。預測或計劃驅動著需求滲透點上游的活動，下游所做的就是對客戶需求做出反應。第五十八頁，共七十一頁。Question

2

What’sthekeyconcernoflogisticsmanagement?Howtoachieveit?第五十九頁，共七十一頁。Akeyconcernoflogisticsmanagementshouldbetoseektoidentifywaysinwhichthedemandpenetrationpointcanbepushedasfaraspossibleupstream.Thismightbeachievedbytheuseofinformationsothatmanufacturingandpurchasinggettohearofwhatishappeninginthemarketplacefasterthantheycurrentlydo.Theotherroutetoachievinganupstreamshiftoftheorderpenetrationpointisbypostponingthefinalcommitmentoftheproducttoitsfinalform.第六十頁，共七十一頁。Followingfigureillustratesarangeofpossibledemandpenetrationpointsindifferentindustrialandmarketcontexts.第六十一頁，共七十一頁。.DrivenByforecastDrivenBydemandplantDistributioncentralwarehousedepots需求滲透點和戰(zhàn)略庫存Demandpenetrationpointandstrategicinventory第六十二頁，共七十一頁。Inasensetheinformationwereceive,ifweonlyhavetheordertorelyon,islikethetipofaniceberg.theordercycletime(i.e.therequiredresponsetimefromordertodelivery)mayonlybethevisibletip.在某種意義上，如果我們僅僅依賴手頭的訂單，則所獲得的信息猶如冰山一角。訂貨周期時間也可能僅僅是信息冰山上可視的一角。第六十三頁，共七十一頁。Theareabelowthesurfaceoftheicebergrepresentstheongoingconsumption,demandorusageoftheproductwhichishiddenfromtheviewofthesupplier.Itisonlywhenanorderisissuedthatdemandbecomestransparent.海平面以下的部分代表著未來的消費、需求或者使用產(chǎn)品的信息，而這些統(tǒng)統(tǒng)是在供應商的視野之外的。只有當訂單發(fā)出之時，需求才變得透明。第六十四頁，共七十一頁。TheinformationicebergOrdercycletimeActualusage/demandTheorder訂單處理周期未來實際使用、需求第六十五頁，共七十一頁。Therearenowsighsthatbuyersandsuppliersarerecognizingtheopportunitiesformutualadvantageininformationonrequirementscan