世界旅游組織：2023年全球旅游業(yè)晴雨表報(bào)告

111VolumeVolume21?Issue1?January2023EXCERPTInternationaltourismrecovered63%ofpre-pandemiclevelsin2022,withEuropeandMiddleEastinthelead?Internationaltourismsawstrongerthanexpectedresultsin2022,backedbylargepent-updemandandtheliftingorrelaxationoftravelrestrictionsinalargenumberofcountries.?Over900milliontouriststravelledinternationallyin2022,doublethosein2021thoughstill37%fewerthanin2019.?Internationaltourismrecovered63%ofpre-pandemiclevels,inlinewithUNWTO’sscenariospublishedinMay2022.?Europe,theworld’slargestdestinationregion,recorded585millionarrivalsin2022toreachnearly80%ofpre-pandemiclevels(-21%over2019).TheMiddleEastenjoyedthestrongestrelativeincreaseacrossregionsin2022witharrivalsclimbingto83%ofpre-pandemicnumbers(-17%versus2019).?AfricaandtheAmericasbothrecoveredabout65%ofitspre-pandemicvisitors,whileAsiaandthePacificreachedonly23%,duetostrongerpandemic-relatedrestrictions.?Bysubregions,WesternEurope(87%)andtheCaribbean(84%)cameclosesttotheirpre-pandemiclevels.?Theyear2022sawastrongreboundintourismspending,resultingintherecoveryofpre-pandemiclevelsinincomeacrossmanydestinations.?Lookingahead,internationaltourismissettoconsolidateitsrecoveryin2023,backedbypent-updemand,particularlyfromAsiaandthePacificasdestinationsandmarketsopenup?TheUNWTOPanelofExpertssurveyindicatesthat72%ofrespondentsexpectbetterperformancein2023.However,mostexperts(65%)alsobelieveinternationaltourismwillnotreturnto2019levelsuntil2024orlater.?BasedonUNWTO’sscenariosfor2023,internationaltouristarrivalscouldreach80%to95%ofpre-pandemiclevelsthisyear,withEuropeandtheMiddleEastexpectedtoreachthoselevels.However,importantrisksremainahead,especiallyeconomicandgeopolitical.?Touristsareexpectedtoincreasinglyseekvalueformoneyandtravelclosetohomeinresponsetothechallengingeconomicenvironment.InternationalTouristArrivals(%changeover2019)0-100-10-93-17-21-37-35-35-59-63-68-84-73-68-66-69-72-77WorldEuropeAsiaandAmericasAfricaMiddlethePacificEastSource:UNWTO*Source:UNWTOVolumeIssueJanuary2023EXCERPT22TheWorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)istheUnitedNationsspecializedagencymandatedwiththepromotionofresponsible,sustainableanduniversallyaccessibletourism.UNWTO’smembershipincludes160countries,6AssociateMembers,twoPermanentObservers,andover500AffiliateMembersrepresentingtheprivatesector,educationalinstitutions,tourismassociationsandlocaltourismauthorities.tionCPoetaJoanMaragall8020Madrid,SpainUNWTOWorldTourismBarometerISSN:1728-9246PublishedandprintedbytheWorldTourismOrganization,Madrid,Spain-Firstprinting:2022(version17/01/23)Allrightsreserved.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialwhatsoeveronthepartoftheSecretariatoftheWorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)concerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorarea,orofitsauthoritiesorconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.AllUNWTOpublicationsareprotectedbycopyright.Thereforeandunlessotherwisespecified,nopartofabereproducedstoredinaretrievalsystemorutilizedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanical,includingphotocopying,microfilm,scanning,withoutpriorpermissioninwriting.UNWTOencouragesdisseminationofitsworkandispleasedtoconsiderpermissions,licensing,andtranslationrequestsrelatedtoUNWTOpublications.ForpermissiontophotocopyUNWTOmaterial,pleaserefertotheUNWTOwebsiteat/publications.Thecontentsofthisissuemaybequoted,providedthesourceisgivenaccuratelyandclearly.Distributionorreproductioninfullispermittedforownorinternaluseonly.Pleasedonotpostelectroniccopiesonpubliclyaccessiblewebsites.UNWTOencouragesyoutoincludealinkto/market-intelligence.WorldTourismOrganizationC/PoetaJoanMaragall42,28020Madrid,SpainTel(34)915678100/Fax(34)911311702info@-Followuson:AbouttheUNWTOWorldTourismBarometereWorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)thatmonitorsshort-termtourismtrendsonaregularbasistoprovideglobaltourismstakeholderswithup-to-dateanalysisoninternationaltourism.ananalysisofthelatestdataontourismdestinations(inboundtourism)andsourcemarkets(outboundtourism).nceIndexbasedontheUNWTOPanelofTourismExpertssurvey,whichprovidesanevaluationofrecentperformanceandshort-termprospectsoninternationaltourism.TheUNWTOSecretariatwishestoexpressitsgratitudetoWorldTourismBarometer,inparticulartoinstitutionsthatsupplieddata,andtothemembersoftheUNWTOPanelofTourismExpertsfortheirvaluablefeedbackandanalysis.ThisreportwaspreparedbytheUNWTOTourismMarketIntelligenceandCompetitivenessDepartment,underthesupervisionofSandraCarv?o,DirectoroftheDepartment.Authorsinclude(inalphabeticalorder):FernandoAlonso,MichelJulianandJavierRuescas.DatawascompiledfromtheTourismMarketIntelligenceDatabaseandtheTourismStatisticsDatabasebasedonofficialcountrysources.Formoreinformationincludingcopiesofpreviousissues,pleasevisit:/loi/wtobarometereng.WewelcomeyourcommentsandsuggestionsatoorgDatacollectionforthisissuewasclosedmid-January2022.ThenextissueoftheUNWTOWorldTourismBarometerwithmorecomprehensiveresultsisscheduledtobepublishedinMarch2023.Pages1-5ofthisdocumentconstitutetheExcerptoftheUNWTOWorldTourismBarometer.ThefulldocumentisavailablefreeofchargeforUNWTOMembersandsubscribersfromtheUNWTOelibraryat.ThisreleaseisavailableinEnglish,whiletheStatisticalAnnexisprovidedinEnglish,FrenchandSpanish.EXCERPTVolume21?Issue1?January2023333InboundtourismInternationaltourismgrew2%in2022,butremained37%below2019?Internationaltourismsawstrongerthanexpectedresultsin2022,backedbylargepent-updemandandtheeasingoftravelrestrictionsinalargenumberofcountries(116destinationshadnoCOVID-19travelrestrictionsinDecember2022,accordingtotheUNWTO/IATADestinationTravel–EasyTravel).?Internationaltourismrecovered63%ofpre-pandemiclevels,inlinewithUNWTO’sscenariospublishedinMay2022.?Accordingtopreliminaryestimates,over900milliontouriststravelledinternationallyin2022,twiceasmanyasin2021,though37%fewerthaninpre-pandemicyear2019.?Internationalarrivalssawastrongreboundthroughthenorthernhemispheresummerseason,withtherecoveryshowingacomparativelymoremoderatepaceinthelastfewmonthsoftheyear.?DespiteheadwindssuchastheemergenceofOmicronatthebeginningoftheyear,thestartoftheRussianoffensiveonUkraineorachallengingeconomicenvironment,internationaltourismshowedresilience,asreflectedinitsstrongrecoveryinarrivals:from-59%versus2019levelsinthefirstquarterof2022to-28%inthelastquarter.EuropeandtheMiddleEastsawfastestrecovery?Allregionsenjoyedsignificantincreasesin2022overthepreviousyear.?Europe,theworld’slargestdestinationregion,recorded585millionarrivalsin2022toreachnearly80%ofpre-pandemiclevels(-21%over2019),withaparticularlystrongsummerseason.Thiswassupportedbyrobustintra-regionaldemandandtheimplementationofcoordinatedtravelmeasures.Theregionaccountedfor64%ofglobalarrivalsin2022.?TheMiddleEastenjoyedthestrongestrelativeincreaseacrossregionsin2022witharrivalsclimbingto83%ofpre-pandemicnumbers(-17%versus2019).TheregionwelcomedlargeeventssuchasExpo2020DubaiandtheFIFAWorldCupinQatar,aswellasahighlyattendedHajjpilgrimageinSaudiArabia.?AfricaandtheAmericasbothrecoveredabout65%ofitspre-pandemicvisitors,whileAsiaandthePacificreachedonly23%,duetostrongerpandemic-relatedrestrictions.Asia,whichaccountedfor25%oftheworld’sinternationaltouristsin2019representedonly9%in2022.?Bysubregions,WesternEurope(87%)andtheCaribbean(84%)cameclosesttotheir2019levels.Destinationsreportingarrivalsabovepre-pandemiclevelsinthefirsttentotwelvemonthsincludeUSVirginIslands(+27%),Albania(+17%),Honduras(+17%),SintMaarten(+15%),Andorra(+14%),DominicanRepublic(+10%),ElSalvador(+7%),Curacao(+6%),Colombia(+5%)Ethiopia(+3%)andLiechtenstein(+2%).Strongreboundinearningsacrossmanydestinations?Notableincreasesininternationaltourismreceiptshavebeenrecordedacrossmostdestinations,inseveralcaseshigherthantheirgrowthinarrivals.Thishasbeensupportedbytheincreaseinaveragespendingpertripduetolongerperiodsofstay,thewillingnessbytravelerstospendmoreintheirdestination,andhighertravelcostspartlyduetoinflation.?Severaldestinationsreportedtourismreceiptsabovepre-pandemiclevelsinthefirsttentotwelvemonthsof2022,includingTürkiye(+40%),Romania(+25%),Mexico(+13%),Portugal(+15%),Latvia(+14%),Pakistan,Morocco(both+6%)andFrance(+1%).?Therecoverycanalsobeseeninoutboundtourism,withstronginternationalspendingfrommajorsourcemarketssuchasFrance(-4%over2019),Germany(-8%),Italy(-10%throughOctober2022)andtheUnitedStates(-15%throughNovember),comparedto2019.Emergingmarketswithrobustreboundinspendingin2022includeQatar(+29%),India(+10%throughJune)andSaudiArabia(+7%throughSeptember).VolumeIssueJanuary2023EXCERPT44Internationaltourismsettoconsolidateitsrecoveryin2023?Internationaltourismisexpectedtoconsolidateitsrecoveryin2023,backedbypent-updemand,particularlyinAsiaandthePacific.BasedonUNWTO’sscenarios,internationaltouristarrivalscouldreach80%to95%ofpre-pandemicnumbersin2023Europeisexpectedtodriveresultsin2023,witharrivalsreachingorexceedingpre-pandemiclevelsandstillconsiderableroomforrecoveryinsomedestinationsandsubregions.TheMiddleEastcouldalsorecover2019levelsthroughout2023afterastrongreboundin2022.?TherecentreopeningofseveralAsiansourcemarketsanddestinationswillcontributetoconsolidatetherecoveryin2023.TheremovalofCOVID-19relatedtravelrestrictionsinChina,theworld’slargestoutboundmarketin2019,isasignificantandmuchwelcomedsteptotherecoveryofthetourismsectorinAsiaandthePacificandworldwide.?Intheshortterm,theresumptionoftravelfromChinaislikelytobenefitAsiandestinationsinparticular.However,thechoiceofdestinationswillbeshapedbytheavailabilityandcostofairtravel,visaregulationsandprocesses,aswellasCOVID-19relatedrestrictions.Bymid-Januaryatotalof32countrieshadimposedspecifictravelrestrictionsrelatedtotravelfromChina,mostlyinAsiaandEurope(seeUNWTO/IATADestinationTravel–EasyTravel).?Atthesametime,robusttraveldemandfromtheUnitedStates,backedbyastrongUSdollar,willcontinuetobenefitdestinationsintheregionandbeyond.Europe,inparticular,willbenefitpartlyduetoaweakereuroversustheUSdollar.?Theimprovedperformanceofairtrafficisexpectedtocontributetotheongoingrecoveryofinternationaltourismin2023.However,internationalseatcapacityremained37%below2019levelsthroughSeptember2022(IATA).?Domestictourismwillcontinuetosupporttourismrecovery,fueledbydemandfordestinationsclosertohomeastouristslookforopen-airactivities,nature-basedproductsandruraltourism.Challengesahead?Economic,healthandgeopoliticalheadwindscouldweighonthesustainedrecoveryofinternationaltourismandconfidencelevelsin2023.?AccordingtothelatestsurveyofthePanelofExperts,thechallengingeconomicenvironmentincludinghighinflationandinterestrates,thespikeinoilandfoodprices,aswellasthefearsofaglobalrecession,continuestobethemainfactorweighingontherecoveryoftourism.?Furthermore,continueduncertaintyderivedfromtheRussianaggressionagainstUkraineandothermountinggeopoliticaltensions,healthchallengesrelatedtoCOVID-19,aswellasworkforceshortagesalsorepresentdownsiderisks.EXCERPTVolume21?Issue1?January2023555InternationalTouristArrivalsby(Sub)regionmillion20192020ShareChange(%)Monthly/quarterlydataseriesChange(%)*vs.20Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1QQ1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4222/19*2021*2022*2022*20/1921/20*22/21*21/19*World1465409455-72.111.2 26 7Advancedeconomies1778222-57.8-35.2-24.9-25.3Emergingeconomies1688187.8-69.3-41-41.6 -31.3 ByUNWTOregions:Europe744.5241.9304.79-67.526.001.42879-41.3-22.7NorthernEurope.-72.1-9.8226.574.9-18.028-47.6-16.9-8.8-15.0WesternEurope-59.3402455464440.2-13.0-3.7-7.0Central/EasternEur.-62.3-40.6-49.644.4-39.331.2Southern/Medit.Eur.3.9.3248.07.0-70.957.0854.418.4754543-35.0-21.014.4-10.7-ofwhichEU-279.8225.9435.347.5-65.722.0.758.219.447-41.1-20.3-13.3-12.7AsiaandthePacific359.628-83.5-58.21.0-76.52-91.2-81.6-71.6-61.6North-EastAsia0.3-88.1-44.8.593.4-89.66-94.1-92.6-89.7-81.3South-EastAsia5.59.9-81.5-88.5↑97.9-74.70↑↑96.4-81.8-66.8-53.8Oceania2-79.2-79.19.695.764.4↑↑-89.6-66.855.2-46.1SouthAsia.85.58-71.11.470.724.469-56.9-20.8.2-10.3Americas.3-68.216.6-62.9-51.6-37.3-32.5NorthAmerica46.50.1-68.322.7.561.137.243-50.1-40.0-36.7-23.6Caribbean6.32.04-60.8-16.3-35.1-17.3-4.5-2.6CentralAmerica4.7-71.651.1.657.1-21.3-38.6-20.5-17.3-6.7SouthAmerica.41-72.0-44.9258.184.6-44.741453-71.0-46.7-34.6-21.9Africa45.0.9-73.25.0-71.9-34.6-58.2-36.8-24.3-23.9NorthAfrica5.61-78.218.874.2-25.3-59.6-26.114.2-10.9SubsaharanAfrica4