2022年全球私募市場報告-麥肯錫

Privatemarketsrallytonewheightsstentsary1Privatemarkets5bouncebackStructuraldemand8frominstitutionalinvestorsfuelsgrowth4Privatedebt42extendsagainraisingAUM462Privateequityshows13enduringstrengthingAUM20Performance225Infrastructureand48naturalresources:dsandbridgesraising3dsenendfundsAUM33Limitedconsolidationbut34SpotlightonUSproperty40technology6ESGProgresson53the‘E’andthe‘S’tycallsforre7Digitalandanalytics:62EfficiencyandperformancethroughdigitizationAuthors65nsightsPrivatemarketsrallytonewheightsExecutivesummarywstotgPrivatemarketsrallytonewheights3nssingveingdelmAboutthisreportheWedefineprivatemarketsasclosed-endfundsinvestinginprivateequity,realestate,privatedebt,infrastructure,ornaturalresources,aswellasrelatedsecondariesandfundsoffunds.Weexcludehedgefundsand,exceptwhereotherwisenoted,publiclytradedoropen-endfunds.AsianVentureCapitalJournal(AVCJ),Bloomberg,Burgiss,CambridgeAssociates,CBREResearch,CEMBenchmarking,CoStar,FTSERussell,GlobalNews,GreenStreet,HamiltonLane,Infra-Deals,JefferiesGroup,JointCenterforHousingStudiesofHarvardUniversity,JonesLangLaSalle,LeanI,Nareit,NationalAssociationofRealtors,NationalAssociationofSoftwareandServiceCompanies(NASSCOM),NationalCouncilofRealEstateInvestmentFiduciaries,PewCharitableTrusts,PitchBook,Preqin,PrinciplesforResponsibleInvestment(PRI),PrivateEquityInternational,RealCapitalAnalytics,Refinitiv,ScienceBasedTargetsinitiative(SBTi),S&PCapitalIQ,S&PGlobal,SecuritiesandExchangeCommission,UnitedStatesCensusBureau,UnitedStatesFederalReserve,WallStreetJournal,WhartonSchooloftheUniversityofPennsylvania,WorldBank,WorldFederationofExchanges,YardiMatrix,Zumper.For2021,alldataarebasedonreportednumbersandwilllikelyadjustasmorefigurescontinuetobereported.PerformancedataareasofSeptember30forvintages2008–18,unlessotherwisenoted;AUMdatacoversthe12-monthperiodendingQ2;andfundraisingdatacoverthefullyear2021.AlldataforAsiaexcludeAustraliaandNewZealandunlessotherwisenoted.4Privatemarketsrallytonewheights1bouncebackayearofpandemic-driventurbulencethatealmakingFundraisingclimbedtoarecordofalmost5trillionacrossassetclasses.mehighofAUMPrivatemarketsrallytonewheights56Privatemarketsrallytonewheightstionalinvestorshavecontinuedtoincreasettheexpenseofcipallybyprivatemarkets’outperformance.CEMBenchmarkingpointssince2012.Nonetheless,institutionalinvestorsbroadlyremainunderweighttheirtargetstoprivatemarkets.Meanwhile,retailproducts,devisingalternativevehiclestructures,outinhousewholesalingteamstotapintothisvastpoolofcapital.Finally,thehighest-performingprivatettlesurprisethetopspot.PrivatemarketsfundraisingsPrivatemarketsfundraisingreachedanewhigh.Privatemarketsfundraisingbyregion,1$billion++20%990990647943438059620032005200720092011201320152017201920212016–212020–21CAGR,%growth,%d–5.6North9.221.6Privatemarketsrallytonewheights7ucture45.5688.8400.4NorthAmericaTotal,$billion2020–21,$billion122.379.3ucture45.5688.8400.4NorthAmericaTotal,$billion2020–21,$billion122.379.338.813.4–9.248.028.256.7rope020–21,$billion42.515.8–13.55.634.6–32.3ia2020–21,$billion–0.8–0.654.77.533.5–7.92.7–8.6Restofworld2020–21,$billion12.50.8YoYchange2.4–0.18.1GlobalTotal,$billion1,184.3679.9175.5192.0137.1020–21,$billionYoYchange17.710.523.0Privatemarketsfundraisinggrewapproximately20percentin2021.Privatemarketsin-yearfundraising,12021AssetclassExcludessecondaries,fundsoffunds,andco-investmentvehiclestoavoiddoublecountingofcapitalfundraised.Closed-endfundsthatinvestinproperty.Includescore,core-plus,distressed,opportunistic,andvalue-addedrealestate,aswellasreal-estatedebtfunds.Source:Preqinf1NAV=newcapitalinvested–capitaldistributed+changeinvalueofunrealizedcapital.2Privateequityincludesbuyout,venturecapital,growth,andotherPE.8PrivatemarketsrallytonewheightsStructuraldemandfrominstitutionalinvestorsfuelsgrowthlinvestmentsPrivatemarketassetsundermanagement,H12021,$billion100%=9884841,188,994(31%)10%)(5%)(12%)$8545%)5077%)$338$552903431%)$2,068$2,130(22%)$5,216(53%)BuyoutVenturecapitalGrowthOtherPrivateequityebtureestateandnaturalPrivatemarketsrallytonewheights92020sTargetallocation,%50veleraymostIn2021,institutionalinvestorsremainedshyofprivateequityallocationtargets.oPEofAUM00.51.01.52.0Gaptotargetallocation,percentagepointsPrivatemarketsrallytonewheightsTwoadditionallargepoolsofcapitalfrominsuranceandretailhavegarneredattentionfromGPs.Privatemarketsperformancecreditinvestingcapabilitieshavecreatedperformingprivatemarketsassetclass.PE’sin-yeartionshipswithinsurancecapitalpoolsreturnsforandhavesubstantiallyInstitutionalinvestorsremainshyoftheirprivatemarketsallocationtargetsdespiterecordcommitmentsinrecentyears.3In2019,thelastyearwithofficialdata,unfundedliabilitiesofstateandlocalpensionstotaled$4.1trillion,asshownin“Stateandlocalgovernmentpensionfundingstatus,2002–2019,”FederalReserve,updatedDecember17,2021.Estimatessuggestthefundinggaphassincedeclined,asdiscussedin“Thestateofpensionfundinggap:Planshavestabilizedinwakeofpandemic,”Pew,September14,2021.4Preqinspecialreport,“FutureofAlternatives2025.”Privatemarketsrallytonewheights11PEremainedthehighest-performingprivatemarketsassetclassin2021.Globalfundperformancebyassetclass,2000–18vintages,1%504030200–20–30–4020002002200420062008201020122014201620182020Privatemarketsrallytonewheights20.09.03.3–1.920.09.03.3–1.9PEoutperformsassetclassesacrossquartiles.GlobalfundperformancebyassettypenetIRRtodatethroughSept30,2021,vintagesTop25%MedianBottom25%0.59.4ourcesInfrastructureNote:Figuresmaynotsumprecisely,becauseofrounding.Methodology:IRRspreadscalculatedforfundswithinvintageyearsseparatelyandthenaveragedout.MedianIRRwascalculatedbytakingtheaverageofthemedianIRRforfundswithineachvintageyear.2Privateequityshowsenduringstrengthoutperformancecomparedwithallotheritionershavesustainedthisstrengthbydeployingcapitallsundedgloballyfallingjustshortofafullrecoverytopre-earlierstageprivateinvestingcontinuedtoattractcapitalonthebackoftyWithincreasedeofowthcompanieshasgrownsubstantiallybuyout’sshareof49percent.rPrivatemarketsrallytonewheights13PrivatemarketsrallytonewheightscadePEcontinuedtooutperformsesitsmediancydthegfundraisinginNorthopeFundraisinguppercentandAsia(down7.1percent).billionfundraisinggrowthoveryeartoreach$112billion(despitea22percentndinparttogeneralcyclicalityequity,whichpostedthebiggestdeclineamongDriversoffundraisingmsintermsofsharegaincontinuestoattractinstitutionalcapital—top-fundsizeofthetop20fundraisingsharegainers7undraisinglevelsatasquicklymonthscomparedwithmonthseragesetOfthetopfirmsalmostallhavededicatedteamshinPEoftheserapidly5Preqin.Preqin.7Fundraisingsharegainwasdeterminedbycomparingfundraisingsharebetween2012and2016and2017and2021.Privatemarketsrallytonewheights15688680688680reysddgGrowthandVChitrecordfundraisinglevelsin2021.Globalprivateequityfundraisingbyassetsubclass,1$billions+2+22%53955649236429922010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212016–212020–21CAGR,%growth,%BuyoutPrivatemarketsrallytonewheights6874296874298089803sBuyoutandVCfirmshavebeensupplyingmoregrowthvehiclesandgainingshareofgrowthequityfundraising.Globalgrowthequityfundraisingbymanagertype,3-yeartrailing,%882003200620092012201520182021ndingPrivatemarketsrallytonewheights17thSince2017,growthequityfundraisingbylargebuyoutmanagershasexpandedmorethanthreefold.Growthequityfundraisingforlargeandsmallbuyoutmanagers21NNSmallbuyout–2.01332003200620092012201520182021PrivatemarketsrallytonewheightsSecondariesfundraisingeGrowthequityfundraisingreachedanewhighin2021.Growthequityfundraisingbyregionoffocus,billions806040200200020032006200920122015201820212016–212020–21CAGRgrowth,%Restofworld20.6222.6Privatemarketsrallytonewheights19–48%842062075–48%8420620757Secondary35213223323336475029536654365654fundsclosed,Shareof64915273647278556887685651707356PEsecondariesfundraisingdeclinedfrom2020,but2021wasthethird-largestfundraisingyearonrecord.PEsecondaryfundraisingbyclosingyear,1$billion55992006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021top-5fundsinsecondaryfundraising,%top-5fundsinsecondaryfundraising,%tal12HamiltonLane.13Jefferies.20PrivatemarketsrallytonewheightsentinanicentryhasbecomeincreasinglychallengingsecondquartersofandreachingAdeepeningandmaturingsecondariesmarketcreatesopportunitiesforbothPrivatemarketsrallytonewheights21sAUMreachedarecordhighinPrivateequityassetsundermanagementbyfundtypeglobally,1H$billion3,0002,5002,0000500020002003200620092012lueGrowth,22PrivatemarketsrallytonewheightsPEAUMcontinueditsimpressivehalf-decadegrowthrate.Privateequityassetsundermanagementbyregion,1H$billion3,5003,0002,5002,0000500020002003200620092012lueGrowth,.2Restofworld13.432.6erormancePrivatemarketsrallytonewheights23GlobalinventoriesofPEbuyoutandgrowthdrypowderdecreasedin2021.Yearsofprivateequityinventoryonhand,1turns4.0.00020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201820202021PEnetassetvalueoutpacedtotalmarketcapoflistedcompanies.GrowthofglobalPEnetassetvalueandmarketcap,1indexedto2000value,2000–20,%market020002002200420062008201020122014201620182020nPrivatemarketsrallytonewheightsEePEfundvintagespost-2008haveconsistentlyoutperformedotherprivatemarketsassetclassesaswellasequivalentinvestmentsinpublicmarkets.16Burgiss.PooledIRRcalculationtakesallcashflowsacrossPEvintageyearsandaggregatesthemtoidentifytherateofreturnasifallflowswereinonefund.Vintages2008–18.BurgissGlobalPEfundsversusMSCIWorldTotalReturnindex.Privatemarketsrallytonewheights25VenturecapitalhasoutperformedotherPEsub-assetclassesineightoutofthelasttenvintageyears.Privatemarketstrategyperformancecomparisonbyvintageyear,200920102011201220132014201520160-year330.0040.4739.6040.507.884340.3820.9520.9626.6820.48098.302Capitalization,billionInfrastructureBuyout.0Venturecapitalreturnsarebetteracrossquartiles,despiteamorevolatileriskprofile.GlobalPEfundperformancebystrategynetIRRtodatethroughSept30,2021,vintagesTop25%MedianBottom25%Note:Figuresmaynotsumprecisely,becauseofrounding.Methodology:IRRspreadscalculatedforfundswithinvintageyearsseparatelyandthenaveragedout.MedianIRRwascalculatedbytakingtheaverageofthemedianIRRforfundswithineachvintageyear.26Privatemarketsrallytonewheights2,00008006004002,00008006004002009DealactivityPEbuyoutandgrowthequitydealvolumeanddealcountin2021reached$2.04trillionacross14,686deals.Globalprivateequitydealvolume,1billion2,20002000200720142021thAmericaEuropeGlobalprivateequitydealcount,16302000200720142021Privatemarketsrallytonewheights274,05432%8%4,05432%8%4%3,03228%9%%29%3%9%%HealthcareandIThavebeenthefastest-growingsectorsgloballyinthelastfiveyears.earsbillion29%29%9%20%4%15201820212016–212016–21growth,%8.08.0BC6.0–5.6re 28PrivatemarketsrallytonewheightsDealmultiplesandleverageUSbuyoutmultiplegrowthhasleveledoff.ltiplesbuyoutentrymultiplesandllTDAEVEBITDA8x6x4x2x0x13.59.08.620082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Privatemarketsrallytonewheights29USbuyoutleverageremainedatnearlyseventimesin2021.USleveragemetrics,2008–21Debt/EBITDApitalization8x6x4x2x0x00 8 2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202170605040302003Realestaterebuildsduncertaintyaboutwhereandhowwewillworldslowedactivity.returnedtotheassetclassandactivityacceleratedRealestatedealvolumeandbythesecond-highest-everfundraisingueaddnNorthAmericaasinvestorsrotatedcapitaltowardhigher-iskstrategiesperhapshopingtotakeadvantageofdislocationanddistressthatethatmanymarketparticipantsanticipatedintheearlycore-plusfunds,despitesolidperformanceowsthatreversedalong-termtrend.30PrivatemarketsrallytonewheightsturnedpercentinScalecontinuestocreateperformanceeinvestorsthelargestfundsoutperformedsmallercounterparts.flockingtothelargestmanagersduringthepandemic.Closed-endfundshssthansomeanticipatedthemajoritypositionwhichwilllikelykeepeslivingwithincommutablerangesandindustrialcontinuebooming.Officeandhworkremainstopostpandemicexperience.elFundraisingshiftedtoriskierstrategiesin2021,driveninpartbyanticipationofdistress—anexpectationthatdidnotfullymaterialize.20Preqin.Privatemarketsrallytonewheights3132Privatemarketsrallytonewheights2939442939445388 48398839930820968639689720nClosed-endrealestatefundraisingreboundedin2021,withopportunisticfundsgrowingfastest.Globalclosed-endrealestatefundraisingbyassetsubclass,1ns22936201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Note:Figuresmaynotsumprecisely,becauseofrounding.Secondariesandfundsoffundsareexcludedtoavoiddoublecountingofcapitalfundraised.Includesrealestatedistressed.Includesrealestatecore,coreplus.2016–212020–21CAGR,%growth,%pportunisticDebtCorecoreplus–15.3Privatemarketsrallytonewheights33nOpen-endfundsg21Forrealestateasaninflationhedge,seeBradCaseandSusanM.Wachter,“Inflationandrealestateinvestments,”workingpaper716,TheWhartonSchool,UniversityofPennsylvania.Burgiss.NationalCouncilofRealEstateInvestmentFiduciariesOpen-EndEquity(NFI-OE).FTSENareitAllEquityREITs(FNER)index,Nareit.25Asofthe12monthsendingJune30,2021.Preqin.34Privatemarketsrallytonewheights7977976207207662067202077Top26–100eLimitedconsolidationbutbenefitsofscaleInclosed-endRE,fundraisingbytopfirmsdeclinedfurther.bymanagersizetrailingyears62012201320142015201620172018201920202021Privatemarketsrallytonewheights35ownhquartileOutperformanceoflargerealestatefundshasincreasedinrecentvintages.GlobalrealestatefundmedianIRRandpercentilespreadsbyfundsize,Top25%MedianBottom25%2008–18vintageyear>$5billion>$5billion2014–18vintageyearbillionbillion1billionerageofthe36PrivatemarketsrallytonewheightsDealvolumedgIn2021,dealvolumereboundedinallregions,withAmericasleadingthepack.Globalrealestatedealvolume,1$billion08006004002000201220142016201820202016–212016–21Total30.Privatemarketsrallytonewheights3760268833602688334320090269499063286686565236509082368040494084449dGlobaldealvolumeincreasedineveryrealestatesector,reboundingfromwidespreadpandemiclows.GlobalrealestatedealGlobalrealestatedeal432708420102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202138Privatemarketsrallytonewheights45584558USdealvolumereachedanall-timehighin2021.USrealestatedealvolume,$billion54697Of?cel365363653368683693699968268904444645405406640696640696949494949820202021nef28JLL.29CoStar.SarahKern,“Retailfoottrafficrisesabovepre-COVIDlevels,”JLL,December6,2021.rPrivatemarketsrallytonewheights39Thepandemichasnotled