國(guó)際財(cái)務(wù)管理課件上下15章

1、1Chapter 15 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long RunThe Law of One PricePurchasing Power ParityA Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPPEmpirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One PriceExplaining the Problems with PPPBeyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange R

2、atesInternational Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange RateReal Interest Parity215-1 The Law of One PriceLaw of one priceIdentical goods sold in different countries must sell for the same price when their prices are expressed in terms of the same currency.(P389)This law applies only in co

3、mpetitive markets free of transport costs and official barriers to trade.Example: If the dollar/pound exchange rate is $1.50 per pound, a sweater that sells for $45 in New York must sell for 30 in London.3It implies that the dollar price of good i is the same wherever it is sold:PiUS = (E) x (PiE)wh

4、ere: PiUS :is the dollar price of good i when sold in the U.S. PiE :is the corresponding euro price in Europe E :is the dollar/euro exchange rate(direct quotation to U.S.)415-2 Purchasing Power ParityTheory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)The exchange rate between two counties currencies equals the

5、ratio of the counties price levels.It compares average prices across countries.It predicts a dollar/euro exchange rate of: E$/ = PUS/PE (15-1)where: E$/ (direct quotation to U.S.)PUS is the dollar price of a reference commodity basket sold in the United StatesPE is the euro price of the same basket

6、in Europe5By rearranging Equation (15-1), one can obtain:PUS = (E$/) x (PE)PPP asserts that all countries price levels are equal when measured in terms of the same currency.6The Relationship Between PPP and the Law of One PriceThe law of one price applies to individual commodities, while PPP applies

7、 to the general price level.If the law of one price holds true for every commodity, PPP must hold automatically for the same reference baskets across countries.Proponents of the PPP theory argue that its validity does not require the law of one price to hold exactly.7Absolute PPP and Relative PPPAbs

8、olute PPPIt states that exchange rates equal relative price levels.Relative PPPIt states that the percentage change in the exchange rate between two currencies over any period equals the difference between the percentage changes in national price levels.(P391)Relative PPP between the United States a

9、nd Europe would be: (E$/,t - E$/, t 1)/E$/, t 1 = US, t - E, t (15-2)where: t = inflation rate8ExerciseSuppose U.S. inflation rate is 10 percent over one year , but the inflation rate in European is only 5 percent. According to relative PPP, what should happen over the year to the U.S.s dollar excha

10、nge rate against the euro? 9Monetary approach to the exchange rateA theory of how exchange rates and monetary factors interact in the long run.The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary ApproachPrice levels can be expressed in terms of domestic money demand and supplies: In the United States: PUS = Ms

11、US/L (R$, YUS) (15-3)In Europe:PE = MsE/L (R, YE) (15-4)15-3 A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP10The monetary approach makes a number of specific predictions about the long-run effects on the exchange rate of changes in:Money suppliesAn increase in the U.S. (European) money supply causes a

12、proportional long-run depreciation (appreciation) of the dollar against the euro.Interest ratesA rise in the interest rate on dollar (euro) denominated assets causes a depreciation (appreciation) of the dollar against the euro.Output levelsA rise in U.S. (European) output causes an appreciation (dep

13、reciation) of the dollar against the euro.11Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPPMoney supply growth at a constant rate eventually results in ongoing inflation (i.e., continuing rise in the price level) at the same rate.Changes in this long-run inflation rate do not affect the full-employment

14、output level or the long-run relative prices of goods and services.The interest rate is not independent of the money supply growth rate in the long run.12The international interest rate difference is the difference between expected national inflation rates:R$ - R = eUS - e (15-5)13The Fisher EffectA

15、 rise (fall) in a countrys expected inflation rate will eventually cause an equal rise (fall) in the interest rate that deposits of its currency offer.(P396)Figure 15-1 illustrates an example, where at time t0 the Federal Reserve unexpectedly increases the growth rate of the U.S. money supply to a h

16、igher level.(P397)14Slope = + Slope = + t0MUS, t0Slope = (a) U.S. money supply, MUSTimeSlope = Slope = t0Slope = + t0t0R$2 = R$1 + R$1Figure 15-1: Long-Run Time Paths of U.S. Economic Variables after a Permanent Increase in the Growth Rate of the U.S. Money Supply(d) Dollar/euro exchange rate, E$/Ti

17、me(b) Dollar interest rate, R$Time(c) U.S. price level, PUSTime15In this example, the dollar interest rate rises because people expect more rapid future money supply growth and dollar depreciation.The interest rate increase is associated with higher expected inflation and an immediate currency depre

18、ciation.Figure 15-2 confirms the main long-run prediction of the Fisher effect.(P399)16The empirical support for PPP and the law of one price is weak in recent data.The prices of identical commodity baskets, when converted to a single currency, differ substantially across countries.Relative PPP is s

19、ometimes a reasonable approximation to the data, but it performs poorly.15-4 Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price17The failure of the empirical evidence to support the PPP and the law of one price is related to:Trade barriers and nontradablesDepartures from free competitionInternationa

20、l differences in price level measurement15-5 Explaining the Problems with PPP18Trade Barriers and NontradablesTransport costs and governmental trade restrictions make trade expensive and in some cases create nontradable goods.The greater the transport costs, the greater the range over which the exch

21、ange rate can move.(P407)19Departures from Free CompetitionWhen trade barriers and imperfectly competitive market structures occur together, linkages between national price levels are weakened further.Pricing to marketWhen a firm sells the same product for different prices in different markets.It re

22、flects different demand conditions in different countries.Example: Countries where demand is more price-inelastic will tend to be charged higher markups over a monopolistic sellers production cost.20International Differences in Price Level MeasurementGovernment measures of the price level differ fro

23、m country to country because people living in different counties spend their e in different ways.PPP in the Short Run and in the Long RunDepartures from PPP may be even greater in the short- run than in the long run.Example: An abrupt depreciation of the dollar against foreign currencies causes the

24、price of farm equipment in the U.S. to differ from that of foreigns until markets adjust to the exchange rate change.Are the Chinese better off today than ten years ago?No, if you use conventional GNP numbers; yes, if you use PPP numbers Are the Japanese really richer than Americans?Yes, but only if

25、 they spend their money in the US.23中美兩國(guó)消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)和兩大部門消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù) 24人民幣匯率的購買力平價(jià) 25The Real Exchange RateIt is a broad summary measure of the prices of one countrys goods and services relative to the others.(P411)It is defined in terms of nominal exchange rates and price levels.The real dollar/euro exchange

26、rate is the dollar price of the European basket relative to that of the American: q$/ = (E$/ x PE)/PUS (15-6)Example: If the European reference commodity basket costs 100, the U.S. basket costs $120, and the nominal exchange rate is $1.20 per euro, then the real dollar/euro exchange rate is 1 U.S. b

27、asket per European basket.15-6 Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Ratesreal exchange rate Exchange rateHow many goods your money can buyHow many dollars your money can buy27Real depreciation of the dollar against the euroA rise in the real dollar/euro exchange rateT

28、hat is, a fall in the purchasing power of a dollar within Europes borders relative to its purchasing power within the United StatesOr alternatively, a fall in the purchasing power of Americas products in general over Europes.A real appreciation of the dollar against the euro is the opposite of a rea

29、l depreciation.28Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange RateIn a world where PPP does not hold, the long-run values of real exchange rates depend on demand and supply conditions.29There are two specific causes that explain why the long-run values of real exchange rates can change:A change in

30、 world relative demand for American productsAn increase (fall) in world relative demand for U.S. output causes a long-run real appreciation (depreciation) of the dollar against the euro.A change in relative output supplyA relative expansion of U.S (European) output causes a long-run real depreciatio

31、n (appreciation) of the dollar against the euro.30Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run EquilibriumChanges in national money supplies and demands give rise to the proportional long-run movements in nominal exchange rates and international price level ratios predicted by the relative PPP theory

32、.From Equation (15-6), one can obtain the nominal dollar/euro exchange rate, which is the real dollar/euro exchange rate times the U.S.-Europe price level ratio:E $/ = q$/ x (PUS/PE) (15-7)31Equation (15-7) implies that for a given real dollar/euro exchange rate, changes in money demand or supply in

33、 Europe or the U.S. affect the long-run nominal dollar/euro exchange rate as in the monetary approach.Changes in the long-run real exchange rate, however, also affect the long-run nominal exchange rate.32The most important determinants of long-run swings in nominal exchange rates (assuming that all

34、variables start out at their long-run levels):A shift in relative money supply levelsA shift in relative money supply growth ratesA change in relative output demandA change in relative output supply33When all disturbances are monetary in nature, exchange rates obey relative PPP in the long run.In th

35、e long run, a monetary disturbance affects only the general purchasing power of a currency.This change in purchasing power changes equally the currencys value in terms of domestic and foreign goods.When disturbances occur in output markets, the exchange rate is unlikely to obey relative PPP, even in

36、 the long run.3435Results Lower e disparityPrices are lower and buying power of e is higher in poorer countries than exchange rates indicateResults Different distribution of world eChina is second largest economy rather than seventh!38人民幣實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng) 39In general, interest rate differences between countri

37、es depend not only on differences in expected inflation, but also on expected changes in the real exchange rate.Relationship between the expected change in the real exchange rate, the expected change in the nominal rate, and expected inflation:(qe$/ - q$/)/q$/ = (Ee$/ - E$/)/E$/ (eUS - eE) (15-8)15-

38、7 International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate40Combining Equation (15-8) with the interest parity condition, the international interest gap is equal to: R$ - R = (qe$/ - q$/)/q$/ + (eUS - eE) (15-9)Thus, the dollar-euro interest difference is the sum of two components:The expe

39、cted rate of real dollar depreciation against the euroThe expected inflation difference between the U.S. and EuropeWhen the market expects relative PPP to prevail, the dollar-euro interest difference is just the expected inflation difference between U.S. and Europe.4115-8 Real Interest ParityEconomi

40、cs makes an important distinction between two types of interest rates:Nominal interest ratesMeasured in monetary termsReal interest ratesMeasured in real terms (in terms of a countrys output)Referred to as expected real interest rates42The expected real interest rate (re) is the nominal interest rat

41、e (r) less the expected inflation rate (e).Thus, the difference in expected real interest rates between U.S. and Europe is equal to:reUS reE = (R$ - eUS) - (R - eE) By combining this equation with Equation (15-9), one can obtain the desired real interest parity condition:reUS reE = (qe$/ - q$/)/q$/

42、(15-10)43The real interest parity condition explains differences in expected real interest rates between two countries by expected movements in the real exchange rates.Expected real interest rates in different countries need not be equal, even in the long run, if continuing change in output markets

43、is expected.44SummaryAbsolute PPP states that the purchasing power of any currency is the same in any country and implies relative PPP.Relative PPP predicts that percentage changes in exchange rates equal differences in national inflation rates.The law of one price is a building block of the PPP the

44、ory.It states that under free competition and in the absence of trade impediments, a good must sell for a single price regardless of where in the world it is sold.45SummaryThe monetary approach to the exchange rate uses PPP to explain long-term exchange rate behavior exclusively in terms of money supply and demand.The Fisher effect predicts that long-run international interest differentials result from different na