WTO-全球價(jià)值鏈發(fā)展報(bào)告

1、G L OB A L VA L U E C H A I N D E V E L OP M E N T R E P OR T 2 019TECHNOLOGICALINNOVATION,SUPPLY CHAINTRADE,AND WORKERSINAGLOBALIZEDWORLD 2019 World Trade Organization World Trade OrganizationCentre William Rappard Rue de Lausanne 154 1211 Geneva 2 SwitzerlandTelephone: +41 (0)22 739 51 11 Internet

2、: HYPERLINK / This work is a product of the World Trade Organization, the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Research Center of Global Value Chains headquartered at the University of International Business and Economics (RCG

3、VC-UIBE), the World Bank Group, and the China Development Research Foundation. It is based on joint research efforts to better understand the ongoing development and evolution of global value chains and their implications for economic development. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expre

4、ssed in this work are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the co-publishing partners, their Boards of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.The co-publishing partners do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors

5、, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the co-publishing partners concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copy

6、right. Because the co-publishing partners encourage dissemination of their knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed t

7、o World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 2025222625; e-mail: HYPERLINK mailto:pubrights pubrights.WTO print ISBN 978-92-870-4967-4 WTO web ISBN 978-92-870-4968-1This publication uses US spelling. All mentions of dollars refer to US dollars, un

8、less otherwise indicated. The term “billion” refers to a thou- sand million.The Research Center of Global Value Chains acknowledges the financial support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.ContentsForeword by Michael Spencev HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Co-publishing partnersvi HYPERLINK l _TOC_250

9、001 ContributorsviiAcknowledgementsviii HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Abbreviations and acronymsixKey messages xExecutive summary 1David DollarChapter 1Recent patterns of global production and GVC participation 9Xin Li (Beijing Normal University), Bo Meng (IDE-JETRO), and Zhi Wang (RCGVC-UIBE)Chapter 2Tra

10、de, value chains and labor markets in advanced economies Marc Bacchetta (WTO) and Victor Stolzenburg (WTO) 45Chapter 3Global value chains and employment in developing economies Claire H. Hollweg (World Bank Group) 63Chapter 4Technological progress, diffusion, and opportunities for developing countri

11、es:Lessons from China 83Satoshi Inomata (IDE-JETRO) and Daria Taglioni (World Bank Group)Chapter 5Understanding Supply Chain 4 0 and its potential impact on global value chains 103Michael J. Ferrantino (World Bank Group) and Emine Elcin Koten (World Bank Group)Chapter 6The digital economy, GVCs and

12、SMEs Emmanuelle Ganne (WTO) and Kathryn Lundquist (WTO) 121Chapter 7Should high domestic value added in exports be an objective of policy? David Dollar (Brookings Institution), Bilal Khan (RCGVC-UIBE), and Jiansuo Pei (SITE-UIBE) 141Chapter 8Improving the accounting frameworks for analyses of global

13、 value chains Nadim Ahmad (OECD) 155Appendix 1Chapter Authors Conference: Final programme 179Appendix 2Technological Innovation, Supply Chain Trade, and Workers in a Globalized World: Global Value Chain Development Report 2019 Background Paper Conference 181ForewordThere are different ways to analyz

14、e the global economy. One is to view it through the lens of growth and struc- tural change in individual economies, developed and developing. A second is to use the lens of global valuechains (GVCs), the complex network structure of flows of goods, services, capital and technology across national bo

15、rders. Both are useful and they are complementary to one another.The 2019 edition of the GVC Development Report is enor- mously valuable, in part because it captures the underlying tech- nological and economic forces that are transforming the patterns of global interconnectedness.The report notes th

16、at there are two megatrends in process. One is the growth of developing countries, the expansion of the middle classes in them, and the shift in the share of global purchas- ing power toward the developing economies. By itself this would produce major shifts in the characteristics of GVCs. Regional

17、trade rises as a share, especially in Asia. More production now goes to rapidly growing domestic markets in developing countries instead of being exported outside the region. Trade is shifting from a stark version of comparative advantage based on differential labor costs and labor arbitrage, toward

18、 something that more closely resembles the intra-industry model of trade among developed economies based on product and technological differentiation. Of course, that process is far from complete, and there remain ear- ly-stage, and relatively low-income developing countries for which the growth mod

19、els will continue to depend on accessing global demand via labor-intensive, process-oriented manufacturing.The second megatrend is the digitization of the underpinnings of entire economies and, by implication, GVCs and the global economy. This too is a process that is underway and one that has much

20、further to go. It is difficult if not impossible to accurately pre- dict the endpoint, if there is one. But there are important insights that the second GVC report highlights.One clear message is that as economies move to being built in part on digital foundations, trade, GVCs and digital technology

21、 cannot be separated and dealt with as independent trends and forces.For early-stage developing countries, automation will at some point displace the labor-intensive technologies that underpinned the earlier Asian growth stories. That shift will occur differentially by sector, with textiles and more

22、 generally the sewing trades being the least vulnerable in the short run. The message is two- fold: dont give up on the traditional growth model but move rap- idly to expand internet capability and the digital underpinnings and infrastructure of the economy.The mobile-internet- and platform-centered

23、 open ecosystems, along with mobile payment systems and enabled financial services, have the potential to support inclusive growth patterns and expand the channels, opportunities, and accessible markets for SMEs. Data from Chinas domestic economy experience supports these trends. Exploiting the inte

24、rnational potential of these platforms to expand trade and access for SMEs requires investment and infrastructure in developing countries, but also new trade regimes that increase the openness of the ecosystems. In other words, the potential to sup- port growth and employment in SMEs via access to g

25、lobal markets on digital platforms is as yet largely unexploited.The report supports and adds to a broad range of studies that suggest that the combination of trade and various aspects of digital transformation has contributed to job and income polarization, and that vigorous policies (by government

26、 and business) are required to restore more inclusiveness to the observed growth patterns. This is especially true in developed economies. Key policies are those that support the workforce in transitions as a growing range of tasks are automated and jobs shift toward a mix of tasks that are compleme

27、n- tary to the machines.In developing countries, especially those in the middle-income category, while the pressures on the structure of jobs and employ- ment are similar to developed economies, the net impact of dig- ital technology appears to have been positive for growth and for employment.There

28、is an important caution in the report. The long-run goal of development is of course to increase productivity, employment and incomes. But in the context of GVCs, attempts to artificially increase the domestic value-added content of exports, ahead of the technological deepening of the economy, are l

29、ikely to be counterproductive.At a more macro level, while trade continues to grow, especially in services (where there remain challenging measurement prob- lems) the declines in trade relative to global GDP and the rising share of intraregional trade are understood to be largely the natural consequ

30、ences of economic development and the early stages of the digital transformation of economies, and not mainly the result of trade frictions and resistance to globalization engendered by the adverse distributional features of growth patterns.The second GVC report is carefully researched and deep in i

31、nsights. It does an admirable job of capturing the complexity of a global economy in rapid transition, and especially of bringing into focus the major forces and trends and their impacts.Michael SpenceNobel Laureate in EconomicsCo-publishing partnersThis work has been co-published by the World Trade

32、 Organization, the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), the Organisation for Economic Co-oper- ation and Development, the Research Center of GlobalValue Chains headquartered at the University of International Business and Economics (RCGVC-UIBE), the World Bank Group, and the China Developm

33、ent Research Foundation.The World Trade Organization (WTO) is an international organization that deals with the global rules of trade between nations. The WTO administers agreements, negotiated and signed by its members, which provide the legal ground rules for international commerce. Their purpose

34、is to help trade flow as freely as possible for the economic development and the welfare of its members citizens. The WTO is serviced by a secretariat which provides expert, impartial and independent support to member governments, including research, analysis and statistical information related to t

35、he role and developments of trade in the global economy.IDE-JETRO is a government-affiliated research institute that conducts basic and comprehensive research on economics, politics, and social issues in developing countries. Through its research, IDE-JETRO contributes knowledge of developing econom

36、ies and better understanding of the regions to the gov- ernment and public.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Devel- opment (OECD) is an international and inter-governmental organization comprising the worlds main industrialized marketeconomies whose mission is to promote policies that w

37、ill improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world: “Better Policies for Better Lives”. The OECD does this by provid- ing a forum for governments to share experiences and by seek- ing solutions to common problems.The Research Center of Global Value Chains (RCGVC) is a global a

38、cademic think tank headquartered at the University of International Business and Economics, focusing on basic and interdisciplinary research activities on the development of global value chains (GVCs) and its implication on global economies.The World Bank is an international development institution

39、established by Articles of Agreement adopted by its member countries. The World Banks overarching mission is to reduce poverty, improve living conditions, and promote sustainable and comprehensive development in its developing member coun- tries. It has established two ambitious goals to anchor its

40、mis- sion: end extreme poverty within a generation and boost shared prosperity. The World Bank will achieve these goals by providing loans, concessional financing, technical assistance, and knowl- edge sharing services to its developing member countries and through partnerships with other organizati

41、ons.The China Development Research Foundation (CDRF) is a public foundation initiated by the Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC). Its mission is to advance good gover- nance and public policy to promote economic development and social progress.ContributorsCo-editorsDavid DollarSen

42、ior Fellow, China Center, Brookings InstitutionEmmanuelle GanneSenior Analyst, World Trade OrganizationVictor StolzenburgResearch Economist, World Trade OrganizationZhi WangProfessor and Director, Research Center for Global Value Chains, University of International Business and Economics (RCGVC- UIB

43、E); Research Faculty and Senior Policy Fellow, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason UniversityOther contributorsNadim AhmadHead of Trade and Competitiveness Statistics Division, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentMarc BacchettaCounsellor, World Trade OrganizationMic

44、hael J FerrantinoLead Economist for Trade Policy, World Bank GroupClaire H HollwegSenior Economist, World Bank GroupSatoshi InomataChief Senior Researcher, Institute of Developing Economies Japan External Trade OrganizationBilal M KhanAssistant Professor, Research Center for Global Value Chains, Uni

45、versity of International Business and EconomicsEmine Elcin KotenConsultant, World Bank GroupXin LiProfessor, School of Statistics, Beijing Normal UniversityKathryn LundquistStatistician, World Trade OrganizationBo MengSenior Overseas Research Fellow (New York), Institute ofDeveloping Economies - Jap

46、an External Trade OrganizationJiansuo PeiAssociate Professor, School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and EconomicsDaria TaglioniSenior Economist, World Bank GroupAcknowledgmentsThe Global Value Chains Development Report is a joint publication of the World T

47、rade Organization (WTO), the Institute of Developing Economies (IDEJETRO), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD), the Research Center of Global Value Chains (RCGVC-UIBE), the World Bank Group, and the China Development Research Foundation, based on joint research efforts t

48、o better understand the ongoing development and evo- lution of global value chains and their implications for economic development.This second report draws contributions from 23 background papers; 16 of them were presented and discussed at the confer- ence “Technological Innovation, Supply Chain Tra

49、de, and Work- ers in a Globalized World” in Beijing during March 2223, 2018, organized by the RCGVC and the China Development Research Foundation. Drafts of the eight chapters of the report were pre- sented and discussed at the second Authors Conference in Geneva on October 8, 2018, organized by the

50、 WTO. The editors thank the authors of background papers and individual chap- ters and the discussants and participants in the two conferences for insightful comments and suggestions that helped draft and improve the chapters (see appendices 1 and 2 for the programs). Special thanks go to our extern

51、al reviewers: Jonathan Eaton(Penn State University), Gary Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics), Alonso de Gortari (Princeton and Dart- mouth), Kalina Manova (University College London), Maurice D Kugler (George Mason University), Marcel Timmer (the University of Groningen), and

52、Felix Tintelnot (University of Chicago). The editors are grateful to Michael Spence for his keynote speech at the background paper conference in Beijing and his invalu- able expertise and advice on the overall narrative of the report. The editors also thank Robert Koopman, chief economist of the Wor

53、ld Trade Organization and Caroline Freund, director of the World Bank Groups Trade, Regional Integration and Investment Climate, for their guidance and support during the joint research process as well as research and data contributions from the Asian Development Bank.The editors are grateful to Wil

54、liam Shaw, who copy-edited the report, and to Anthony Martin, Head of WTO Publications, and Helen Swain, WTO Publications Editor, who were responsible for the production of the report.The RCGVC would like to acknowledge the financial support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and National Scie

55、nce Foundation of China (grant No. .The reports co-editors are David Dollar, Emmanuelle Ganne,Victor Stolzenburg and Zhi Wang.Abbreviations and acronymsADBAsian Development BankAIartificial intelligenceASEANAssociation of Southeast Asian NationsB2Bbusiness-to-businessB2Cbusiness-to-co

56、nsumerCDRFChina Development Research FoundationCEOChief Executive OfficerCIFost, insurance and freightCMIcustomer-managed inventoryDRCDevelopment Research Center of the State CouncilDVAdomestic value-added DVARdomestic value-added ratio ECUelectronic control unitEDIelectronic data interchangeESUText

57、ended supply-use tableFATSforeign affiliates statisticsFDIforeign direct investmentF O Bfree-on-boardFTZforeign trade zoneGDPgross domestic productGMglobal manufacturingGSMglobal system for mobile communicationGTHGlobal Trade HelpdeskGVCglobal value chainHIChigh-income countryICIOinter-country input

58、-outputICTinformation and communication technologyIDBInter-American Development BankIDEJETRO Institute of Developing EconomiesIMFInternational Monetary FundIoTInternet of ThingsIPRintellectual property rightsITCInternational Trade CentreLACEXWorld Banks Labor Content of ExportsLDCleast-developed cou

59、ntryLMIClow/medium-income countryMFNmost-favored nationMNEmultinational enterpriseOECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentR&Dresearch and developmentRCGVCResearch Center of Global Value ChainsRFIDradio frequency identificationSMEsmall and medium-sized enterpriseSNASystem of Nationa

60、l AccountsSTEMscience, technology, engineering, and mathematicsSUTsupply and use tableTFPtotal factor productivityTiVAtrade in value-addedUIBEUniversity of International Business and EconomicsUNCTADUnited Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentVMIvendor-managed inventoryWBWorld BankWIODWorld Inp