2019年經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人雙語(yǔ)版-樓市,溫和戰(zhàn)略

1、2828.132019年經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人雙語(yǔ)版:樓市,溫和戰(zhàn)略篇一：【經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人】中英雙語(yǔ)閱讀精粹（1998-20XX年版（中英版）CONTENTS20XX.08.06Thesunalsorises日升如故，陰霾潛伏120XX.08.06Knottingthepurse-strings捂緊錢(qián)袋子420XX.01.22Howtoplaychickenandlose如何玩火自焚720XX.10.19Goingcritical,defyingtheworld20XX.10.05Thesearchfortalent尋找人才1620XX.09.18SwedensModeraterevolution瑞典的溫和革命2

2、020XX.08.24Whokilledthenewspaper?.2220XX.08.21Water,watereverywhere?2620XX.08.10Butdidtheybuytheirownfurniture?眠眠牡男幟SUOP2Slslmv220.xxos屈芒畑u.24CSHCq0I0n4n40luuz20.xxosIrs富UMUIq對(duì)UIOSgo.000.xxos9sqoocouc-n.go.xxosuz90.xxos585820XX.04.27Inaleagueofitsown4520XX.04.06Thestateislookingafteryou國(guó)家在照管你4920XX.

3、03.23Colbertwashere柯?tīng)栘悹柣貋?lái)了5220XX.02.09Passtheparcel5620XX.02.09GlobalAgendaFoodfirmsandfat-fightersH20XX.01.26Tistheseason一年之計(jì)在于春6520XX.01.12PetsinChina:Friendorfood?朋友還是食物？6620XX.12.20Churchesasbusinesses:Jesus,CEO教會(huì)就是生意6820XX.12.20Thestoryofwheat:Earsofplenty麥穗滿滿.7620XX.10.27Whenlightningstrikes85

4、20XX.10.13LeoSternbach悵A104S5它vqv9I.xxos06N發(fā)疼fflSOUICbJOncpcoqo對(duì)UIGbJOfOOSI&I.xxoszoo一團(tuán)odulouz.ol.xxos62喪tir般目8上顯答送0001.II.xxosXOIB13413420XX.08.19Agreatwallofwaste用垃圾鑄造我們新的長(zhǎng)城11620XX.05.06Thisroundismine這回該我了12520XX.01.29Jammed杯水車(chē)薪12720XX.01.15Agrandbutcostlyvision宏偉但昂貴的規(guī)劃.1302003.12.18Thenannystate

5、2003.12.11Theshapeofthingstoe未來(lái)的體型1372003.11.01Whoselifeisit,anyway?1402003.10.23Therighttoknow知情權(quán)1452003.09.11Flagsofconvenience1472003.06.19Atiger,fallingbehindadragon被蛟龍甩在背后的猛虎1500091X年官擔(dān)6寸61CNOLHoNIHdmpnLLSHHgHUooI.II.sos6S凰蟲(chóng)擔(dān)luurLIPIOopucd40Hgo.go.xoossssSOSVOSICUnsoqu90.ooo.xxosWJ=舉.60.0066169

6、1.:poo簿&I.6661Signs經(jīng)濟(jì)of復(fù)蘇economic的前cheer奏The日AugFromsun升6th如The故20XX，|also陰Economistprint霾WASHINGTON,潛rises伏DCeditionTheeconomymaybepullingoutofrecessionbutunemploymentisstillsurprisinglyhigh.Celebrationsshouldbedelayed雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)漸別衰退,但是面對(duì)居高不下的失業(yè)率，要想慶祝還為時(shí)尚早WHENBarackObamavisitedElkhart,Indiana,inearlyFebru

7、ary,afewweeksafterhisinauguration,itwasasombreaffair.Intheprevious12monthstheareasunemploymentratehadmorethantripledto18.3%.Thepresidentpleadedforthepassageofamassivefiscalstimulus,insistingthatdoingnothingisnotanoption.IIBythetimehereturnedtoElkhartonAugust5thhewasquiteabitsunnier.Localfactoriesare

8、ingbacktolifeI,heproclaimed.AfewdaysearlierhehaddeclaredtheeconomytohavedonemeasurablybetterIthanexpected.今年二月初，就職數(shù)周后的奧巴馬總統(tǒng)來(lái)到印第安納州小城埃爾克哈特(Elkhart,位于美國(guó)印第安納州北部，埃爾克哈特縣縣治)，對(duì)其進(jìn)行考察。本次?？h之行，局勢(shì)并不樂(lè)觀。過(guò)去一年來(lái)，縣內(nèi)失業(yè)率翻了三倍多，飆升至18.3%。針對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)頹勢(shì)，總統(tǒng)言辭懇切地堅(jiān)稱對(duì)此袖手旁觀只會(huì)使局面惡化II,希望能促使國(guó)會(huì)通過(guò)一項(xiàng)大規(guī)模的財(cái)政刺激政策。八月五日，奧巴馬重返?？h視察。此時(shí)的他頗為神采奕奕；并宣稱，當(dāng)

9、地工廠正一重現(xiàn)生機(jī)I。此前幾日不久，奧巴馬就對(duì)外宣布，經(jīng)濟(jì)形式與預(yù)期相比有一適度好轉(zhuǎn)II。MrObamasgoodspiritsarewellgrounded:Americasrecessionappearstobeingtoanend.OnJuly31stthegovernmentreportedthatrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)contractedinthesecondquarter,butatonlya1%annualrate.Muchofthatdeclinereflectedbusinesssdeterminationtokeepfactoriesan

10、dworkersidleandfillnewordersoutofexistinginventory.Now,stocksaresodepletedthatproductionwillsoonhavetorestart.奧巴馬的樂(lè)觀論調(diào)并非空穴來(lái)風(fēng)。的確，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎正在走出蕭條陰影。七月三十一日，政府報(bào)告指出，雖然第二季度的實(shí)際國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）仍有萎縮，但其萎縮速度已減少至年均1%。此項(xiàng)萎縮多半反映出企業(yè)在想方設(shè)法地保持廠房閑置，限制工時(shí)，并盡量利用現(xiàn)有存貨來(lái)交付訂單。目前，存貨已近清空，生產(chǎn)重啟也是指日可待。TheclutchofdatanowavailableforJulyhass

11、trengthenedexpectationsthatGDPwillriseinthecurrentquarterbyasmuchas3%.AnindexofmanufacturingactivityrosetoitshighestlevelsincelastAugust,andmanufacturersreportedthatnewordersweregrowingbriskly,thebestinovertwoyears.Carsalesjumped15%toanannualized11.2mandmanufacturersarerampingupproduction.Salesofexi

12、stinghouseshaverisen.EvenbatteredElkhartgotsomegoodnews:onAugust4thDometic,asupplierofrecreational-vehicleparts,saidthatwithsomehelpfromlocalincentivesitwouldadd240jobstoitsoperationinthetown.七月份已出爐的各項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)均顯示出復(fù)蘇跡象，市場(chǎng)信心也由此增強(qiáng)。本季度GDP增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到3%。其中一項(xiàng)生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)指數(shù)更是創(chuàng)下自去年八月來(lái)的最高水平，上升態(tài)勢(shì)強(qiáng)勁。廠商報(bào)告也顯示訂單增勢(shì)旺盛，達(dá)到兩年多來(lái)的最佳狀態(tài)。汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)

13、售額躍升15%，達(dá)年均1120萬(wàn)輛。各大汽車(chē)制造商都在補(bǔ)充產(chǎn)能?，F(xiàn)房銷(xiāo)售也有上漲。甚至連飽嘗蕭條之痛的埃爾克哈特也傳來(lái)振奮人心的消息：車(chē)載娛樂(lè)部件提供商多美達(dá)（Dometic）于八月四日稱，得益于當(dāng)?shù)卣慕?jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施，公司在埃縣將新增240個(gè)工作崗位。MrObamaandhisaideshavewastednotimeincreditingthe$787billionfiscalstimulusforspurringthisrecovery.Infactthestimulusscontributionsofarhasbeenrelativelymodest.Moreimportantwasl

14、astautumnsmassiveinjectionofpubliccapital,loansandloanguaranteesintothefinancialsystem,andthisspringsbankstresstests.Thesestoppedthespiralofdecliningassetprices,creditwithdrawalsandbankfailuresthathadthreatenedtoturnarecessionintoadepression.奧巴馬總統(tǒng)在其顧問(wèn)團(tuán)的協(xié)助下，為推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不失時(shí)機(jī)地出臺(tái)了金額達(dá)7870億美元的財(cái)政刺激計(jì)劃。目前，該計(jì)劃的實(shí)際收

15、效相對(duì)而言并不顯著。去年秋季，政府對(duì)金融體系進(jìn)行了包括公共資本貸款及貸款擔(dān)保在內(nèi)的大規(guī)模注資；今年春季又對(duì)銀行進(jìn)行了壓力測(cè)試。這些舉措都比上述財(cái)政刺激計(jì)劃更為有效。在這些措施的助力下，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格下跌的勢(shì)頭得到有效遏止；擠兌風(fēng)潮和銀行倒閉的危機(jī)得到解除；同時(shí)也緩解了經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步惡化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。OneofthemostencouragingbitsofnewsisthattheS&P/Case-Shiller20-cityindexofhousepricesfelljust0.2%betweenAprilandMay,thesmallestfallintwoyears.Stablehousepricesw

16、oulddowondersinreducingloandelinquencies,shoringupthebanksbalance-sheetsandrestoringtheflowofcredit.最令人鼓舞的消息來(lái)自房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。今年四至五月，一標(biāo)普/凱斯-希勒20城市房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)H僅下跌0.2%，創(chuàng)兩年來(lái)最小跌幅。而穩(wěn)定的房?jī)r(jià)不僅是減少貸款違約率的靈丹妙藥，也將在重振銀行資產(chǎn)平衡和恢復(fù)信貸流動(dòng)方面大顯身手。Despitethegoodnews,MrObamasapprovalratings,thoughhigh,areslipping.This,inpart,isbecausethesingl

17、emostimportanteconomicbenchmark,employment,remainsgrim,surprisinglyso.Unemploymentusuallyrespondstoeconomicgrowthinarelationshipthatwascapturedbyaneconomist,ArthurOkun,inthe1960s.ButithasrisenmoreduringthisrecessionthanmostformulationsofOkun“sLawwouldsuggest.與經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)相反，奧巴馬的支持率盡管仍保持在高位，卻已開(kāi)始不斷下滑。其部分原因在于，

18、作為最為重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)，就業(yè)率依然令人訝異地徘徊在較低水平。失業(yè)率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間往往存在反向變動(dòng)關(guān)系，這一規(guī)律最早于20世紀(jì)60年代由經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家亞瑟?奧肯(ArthurOkun)發(fā)現(xiàn)。但在本次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中，失業(yè)率的攀升卻遠(yuǎn)超出奧肯定律公式所作出的估計(jì)。ThepublicationlastweekofrevisionstoearlierGDPdataexplainssomeofthediscrepancy.TherevisionsshowthatGDPhasdeclinedacumulative3.7%sincetheendof20XX,thustyingwith1957-58asthedeepes

19、trecessionsincetheDepression(beforetheserevisions,thedeclinewasshowntobe2.5%).Evenso,MichaelFeroli,aneconomistatJPMorganChase,saysthatOkunsLawwouldhavepredictedanunemploymentrateofjust8.6%duringthesecondquarter,whereasitactuallyaveraged9.3%.一項(xiàng)對(duì)早先GDP數(shù)據(jù)的修訂解釋了兩者之間的部分差異。這項(xiàng)上周發(fā)布的修訂表明，自20XX年底以來(lái)，GDP累計(jì)下降了3.7

20、%,與1957至58年持平，一同成為美國(guó)自大蕭條以來(lái)最為嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退(修訂之前的數(shù)據(jù)則為2.5%)。即便如此，摩根大通的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家邁克爾?費(fèi)拉里(MichaelFeroli)卻指出，根據(jù)奧肯定律，第二季度的失業(yè)率預(yù)計(jì)將為8.6%，而實(shí)際上這一數(shù)字平均達(dá)到了9.3%。Severalfactorsareatwork.Expandedunemployment-insurancebenefitsencouragesomeworkerstokeeplookingforajobratherthandropoutoftheworkforcealtogether,addingperhapshalfaperce

21、ntagepointtotheunemploymentrate,accordingtotheFed.Theeviscerationoftheirwealthmayhaveledpeopletolookforworkratherthanretireorstayathomewiththechildren.在這背后起作用的因素不止一個(gè)。據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)稱，失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)福利的擴(kuò)大給了一些失業(yè)工人繼續(xù)尋找工作的激勵(lì)，使得他們不愿意徹底退出勞動(dòng)力大軍（譯者:退出勞動(dòng)力隊(duì)伍后便失去繼續(xù)領(lǐng)取失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)金的資格）。這有可能對(duì)失業(yè)率上升了貢獻(xiàn)了半個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。財(cái)產(chǎn)縮水的痛苦促使人們?nèi)フ覍ば碌墓ぷ?，而不愿干脆賦閑在家享受兒孫繞膝之樂(lè)

22、。Andfirmshavebeenunusuallyquicktoslashpayrolls.Somemaybehusbandingcashmorecarefullybecauseofthecreditcrunch.Othersmaysimplybemorepessimisticaboutaneventualrecovery.Whateverthereason,oneresultisthatproductivityisrising,cushioningprofitmargins.RobertHallofStanfordUniversity,whoheadstheacademicmitteeth

23、atdatesrecessions,saysOkundevisedhislawinanerawhenproductivityusuallyfellduringrecessions:Whenproductivityrises,thelawfails.ThoughIwasagreatfanofOkuns,Imafraidhislawisobsolete.II公司減薪之迅速也叫人始料未及。有一些公司可能出于信貸緊縮的考慮而更謹(jǐn)慎地管理資金，而另一些則只是出于對(duì)復(fù)蘇前景持悲觀態(tài)度。但不論原因?yàn)楹危浣Y(jié)果是導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)率上升，對(duì)保持利潤(rùn)空間起到了緩沖作用。斯坦福大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期測(cè)定委員會(huì)的領(lǐng)頭人羅伯特?霍爾(R

24、obertHall)指出，在奧肯定律適用的時(shí)期，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的發(fā)生常常伴隨著生產(chǎn)率的下降：一如果生產(chǎn)率上升，該規(guī)律就不再適用。盡管我十分崇敬奧肯，但他的研究在今天已經(jīng)過(guò)時(shí)了。IThedifferencewithEuropeisespeciallystriking.IntheeurozoneGDPhasfallenfurtherthaninAmericabutunemploymenthasrisenless(seechart).EmployersareslowertosackworkersthaninAmerica,partlythankstogovernmentsubsidiesthatencou

25、ragethemtoshortenworkinghoursinstead(seearticle).ThismeansthatEuropeanunemploymentwillprobablybeslowtofallonceGDPrecovers.歐洲的情況與美國(guó)大相徑庭。歐元區(qū)的GDP下跌幅度超過(guò)了美國(guó)，但失業(yè)率卻升幅較小(如圖)。歐洲的雇主們解雇工人往往沒(méi)有美國(guó)同行們那么迅速；這要部分得益于政府對(duì)雇主進(jìn)行補(bǔ)貼的舉措。政府以此鼓勵(lì)雇主削減工時(shí)，從而保留工作崗位。同時(shí)這也意味著一旦歐洲GDP回升，其失業(yè)率的下降也將較為緩慢。篇二：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人周周學(xué)6月中英雙語(yǔ)版篇三：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人雙語(yǔ)版：混合食物Hybri

26、dfoods混合食物Matchesmadeinheavenandhell美味佳肴，還是黑暗料理？Whatdoyougetifyoucrossawafflewithadoughnut?Itsnojoke如果你將華夫餅干與甜甜圈混合會(huì)得到什么？這不是開(kāi)玩笑。NOTallmarriagesarehappy,butAlexHernandezthinksthattheunionofawaffleandadoughnutwillbe.TheownerofWafflesCafeinChicagostartingsellingwhathecalls“wonuts”inApril.Theyaredeep-fri

27、edwaffles,toppedwithicingandmulticolouredsprinkles.Dailysaleswentfrom24to600withintwodays.Buzzfeed,awebsite,calledthenewsnack“proofthatabenevolentFoodGodexists”.并不是所有的婚姻都是幸福的，但是亞歷克斯赫爾南德斯認(rèn)為華夫餅和甜甜圈的組合會(huì)很幸福。芝加哥的華夫咖啡館店主于四月開(kāi)始售賣(mài)他叫做“wonuts”的甜品。它們是油炸的華夫餅，表面加上糖衣和五顏六色的巧克力屑。日銷(xiāo)售量在兩天之內(nèi)從24猛增至600。網(wǎng)站Buzzfeed把這種新型小甜品

28、叫做“仁慈食神存在的證據(jù)”。Hybriddishesarefashionable.Thewonutfollowsthecronut,acroissant-donutbinationthatwasinventedinNewYorklastyearandisnowbeingfriedandmunchedinTaiwan,SouthKorea,Brazil,BritainandevenFrance,whereyoudthinkdinerswouldbefussier.混合菜肴很流行。Wonut是在牛角甜甜圈紐約于去年發(fā)明的一款牛角面包與甜甜圈的搭配組合之后推出的一款新甜品，如今已風(fēng)靡臺(tái)灣、南韓、巴西

29、和英國(guó)，甚至連對(duì)飲食很挑剔的法國(guó)都鐘情于它。Manycountriesindulgeinculinarymixing,butAmericans,wholovebothnoveltyandfood,areespeciallykeenonit.BurgerKingsCroissanWichisacroissant-sandwichmix.TacoBellsquesaritoisabeefburritowrappedinaquesadilla.J&DsFoodsproducesBaconnaise,bacon-flavouredmayonnaisethatis,oddly,vegetarianand

30、kosher-certified.CarlsJristestingabisnut,acrossbetweenabiscuit(intheAmericansenseoftheword)andadoughnut.Noteveryoneisimpressed.“Leaveittofastfoodtothinkofnewandexcitingwaystomakeyouhavetobuytwoseatsonanairplane.Abreakfast-desserthybrid.Yourebarelyawakeandyourealreadygettingallyourcaloriesfortheday,”

31、grumblesJeffSorensenofUproxx,anonlinemagazine.許多國(guó)家都喜歡混合烹飪，而美國(guó)人這種既喜歡新奇又喜歡食物的人對(duì)此尤其鐘愛(ài)。漢堡王的CroissanWich是羊角面包和三明治的混合。塔可鐘的quesarito是外面裹有油炸玉米粉餅的牛肉卷餅。J&D的食品產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)Baconnaise培根風(fēng)味的蛋黃醬，但有趣的是，猶太教和素食主義者都適用。卡樂(lè)星正在測(cè)試一款bisnut小餅干和甜甜圈的組合。并不是每個(gè)人都會(huì)被打動(dòng)?！霸诳觳蜕鲜褂眠@個(gè)點(diǎn)子，想出新的有趣的方法來(lái)讓你不得不在一架飛機(jī)上買(mǎi)兩個(gè)位子。早餐混合甜點(diǎn)，你還在打著瞌睡，就已經(jīng)攝入了一天所需的卡路里，”一家

32、在線雜志Uproxx的杰夫索倫森抱怨說(shuō)。Suchinnovationhasalonghistory.BlackswhomigratednorthaftertheCivilWarservedAfrican-spicedfriedchickenwithEuropeanwaffles.Inthe1910s,AmericansdrenchedGermanfrankfurterswithMexicanchilitomakechilidogs.Morerecently,NewYorkersdrewonthecollectivegeniusofgenerationsofJewishandItaliancoo

33、kstoproduce:thepizzabagel.這種創(chuàng)新歷史悠久。內(nèi)戰(zhàn)之后遷移到北方的黑人把歐洲華夫餅和非洲五香炸雞混合在了一起。在20世紀(jì)10年代，美國(guó)人把德國(guó)法蘭克福香腸浸透了墨西哥紅辣椒，做成了辣椒熱狗。最近，紐約人民利用世代傳下來(lái)的猶太和意大利的烹飪智慧制造出了：披薩百吉餅。BecauseAmericaisanationofimmigrants,ithasmanytraditionstomine.Butbecausemanycookstrytopleaseeveryone,ethnicrecipeshaveoftenbeentweakedsoasnottooffendunfamil

34、iarpalates.“Youtakesomethingthatsdifferent,andyoumakeitsimilar,”saysRogerHorowitzoftheHagleyMuseumandLibraryinWilmington,Delaware.Thathasofteninvolvedaddingsugarandfat,whicheveryonelikes.ThewonutillustratesanothergrandoldAmericantradition,too:thelayeringofmountainsofdifferenttypesoffoodinasingledish

35、,whichgoesbackatleasttotheinventionoftheice-creamsundael20yearsago.因?yàn)槊绹?guó)是一個(gè)移民國(guó)家，因此它擁有許多個(gè)人習(xí)俗。但是因?yàn)榇蟛糠质澄锒际且偹腥?，民族食譜經(jīng)常會(huì)被改造以滿足不同的人的口味“你拿來(lái)與不同的東西，然后把它變成你熟悉的東西，”特拉華州海格利博物館和威明頓圖書(shū)館的羅格霍洛威茨說(shuō)。這通常包括加入糖和油脂，這是大部分人都喜愛(ài)的。Wonut也說(shuō)明了另一種極為重要的美國(guó)古老習(xí)俗：在一道菜中包含了層層疊疊的不同食物，這至少可以追溯到120年前圣代冰淇淋的發(fā)明。Goodideasspreadfast,sohybridhitsaresooncopied.CrumbsBakeShop,anailingandpriceyNewYork-based