按需乘車：汽車擁有和公共交通中斷的最初跡象

1、Global Research28 January 2020EquitiesUBS Evidence Lab inside: Global mobility Ride-on-demand: First signs of disruption for car ownership and public transportsFirst signs of disruption for private car ownership and public transportRide-on-demand (ROD) platforms are already the fourth most frequentl

2、y used transportation mode. ROD apps are very popular: the run-rate of downloads has stabilised at c10m/week, while usage continues to increase and the addressable market is expanding. The UBS Evidence Lab consumer survey of 17,000-plus respondents across six markets shows: (1) some early signs of b

3、ehaviour change; and (2) ROD could disrupt both private car ownership (the weight of respondents not purchasing a car because of ROD has doubled, reaching 8% in 2019 (vs 2018) and public transport (ROD is increasingly used for the daily commute). The acceptance of robotaxis by consumers is relativel

4、y high for a technology that has yet to become available and mainstream. Should the auto industry and public authorities be worried? We do not think so, as the impact on new car sales will remain immaterial in the medium term. Further, the launch dates of commercial robotaxi fleets continue to be de

5、layed, and we do not see a sharp boost in the adoption curve before 2030 at the earliest.No price war in sight; robotaxi launches will push prices lower in the long term The ROD industry continues to fragment with regional players gaining further momentum versus Uber (Lyft in North America, BMW/Daim

6、ler mobility joint venture (JV) in Europe, Grab in Southeast Asia). However, we have no evidence that pricing is about to turn more competitive quite the opposite, in fact: less than 5% of the markets we track globally have experienced a price decline since 2016. Nevertheless, we see downwards press

7、ure on the pricing outlook in the long run, mostly driven by the introduction of robotaxi fleets: UBS Evidence Labs unique robotaxi simulation showed the fare paid by passengers could fall by more than 80% (less than US$3).Sub-sector/stock implications: Pure ROD players, semis and tires preferred Se

8、ctors benefiting the most include internet, semis, and tires. Uber & Lyft will be able to capitalize on broader secular trends around adoption and use of ROD while leveraging their scale to efficiently match supply/demand. Other ROD players are well positioned (Yandex, ComfortDelGro, Kakao). Semis s

9、hould deliver strong growth, due to higher content (Infineon preferred). Tires will leverage the higher number of miles driven (Michelin preferred). Incumbents are catching up fast: Daimler/BMW mobility JV, Sixt).Figure 1: Ride-on-demand global competitive landscapeAutomobilesGlobalDavid LesneAnalys

10、t HYPERLINK mailto:david.lesne david.lesne+33-1-4888 3034Eric J. SheridanAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:eric.sheridan eric.sheridan+1-212-713 9310Patrick Hummel, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:patrick.hummel patrick.hummel+41-44-239 79 23Paul GongAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:paul.gong paul.gong+852-2971 7868Jerr

11、y Liu Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:jerry.liu jerry.liu+852-2971 7493Ulyana LenvalskayaAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:ulyana.lenvalskaya ulyana.lenvalskaya+7-495-648 2093Sonal GuptaAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:sonal.gupta sonal.gupta+91-22-6155 6063Rachael TanAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:rachael.tan rachael.tan+65-649

12、5 2708Taewon KimAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:taewon.kim taewon.kim+82-2-3702 8807David Mulholland, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:david.mulholland david.mulholland+44-20-7568 4069Timothy ArcuriAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:timothy.arcuri timothy.arcuri+1-415-352 5676Julie Hudson, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:jul

13、ie.hudson julie.hudson+44-20-7568 4632Source: UBS HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities France S.A. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 44. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research rep

14、orts. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisGlobal mobilitySector viewUBS Research THESIS MAP POTENTIAL WINNERSPOTENTIAL LOSERSUber, Lyft, Yandex, ComfortDelGro, Kakao, Alph

15、abet, Intel, Nvidia, Infineon, AAPL, Michelin, Aptiv, Baidu, Alibaba, TencentFCA, PSA, Veoneer, SchaefflerPIVOTAL QUESTIONSQ: Is the ride-on-demand industry remaining disciplined on pricing?Yes. Less than 5% of the markets we track globally have experienced a price decline since 2016. The ROD indust

16、ry continues to fragment further, but this does not seem to have any impact on prices. While we see material reduction potential of the trip fare with the introduction of robotaxis, we do not expect a price war any time soon. MoreQ: Will ride-on-demand disrupt private car ownership and public transp

17、ort?Yes with some early signs of disruption. The ROD platforms are already the fourth most frequently used transportation mode. We are starting to see some early signs that consumer behaviour is slowly changing, and ROD could disrupt both private car ownership and public transport. That said, we do

18、not see any material impact on new car sales in the near term. The acceptance of autonomous cars/robotaxis remains high for a technology that has yet to become available and mainstream. MoreQ: Is the addressable market for ride-on-demand getting larger?Yes. The clustering yielded by the detailed UBS

19、 Evidence Lab survey shows that the addressable market is expanding: ROD is attracting older users with lower incomes and living more in rural areas. However, we do not see a global winner takes all situation for ROD. Uber remains the most popular ROD platform in Europe and the US, and its awareness

20、 level continues to improve. The competition is behind, but the gap is closing: in the US, Lyft is catching up fast, and, in Europe, the Daimler/BMW mobility JV is gaining further traction with consumers. MoreWHATS PRICED IN?Most investors believe the transition towards the car of the future will be

21、 hugely negative for OEMs. To some extent, those worries are already reflected in the OEMs valuations, as they currently trade more than 20% below their historical mid-cycle multiples.UBS VIEWWe size the robotaxi fleet market globally at more than US$2trn in 2030E. Mass adoption could materially boo

22、st the revenue of several sectors, ranging from utilities to semis. Robotaxis will price- compete with mass-transit systems. Sectors benefiting the most include internet, utilities, semis, telcos and tires.EVIDENCEUnique time series are emerging: fourth consumer survey on ROD, seventh smartphone app

23、 download analysis on ROD, fourth UberX pricing analysis. We have split the ROD market into four types. Our colleagues have provided insight, discussing the specifics of their respective regions: the US, China, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia, India.ESG Footnote: The possibility of disruption to publ

24、ic transport (a “social good” to the extent that it provides affordable, available mobility) could prompt a regulatory response in the medium term.1 ROD apps popularity remains very strongFigure 1: UBS Evidence Lab ROD consumer survey five key findings2ROD usage still increasing but at a slower pace

25、3Early signs private car ownership could be disrupted4Early signs public transport could be disrupted5 Acceptance of autonomous cars/robotaxis remains relatively highSource: UBS Evidence LabGlobal mobilityUBS ResearchOUR THESIS IN PICTURESreturn HHI concentration index for ROD services3,5003,0002,50

26、02,0001,5001,000500-The ride-on-demand industry continues to fragmentBased on the number of app downloads. The light brown line represents the level above which an industry is consideredhighly concentrated (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index).201420152016201720182019HHI concentration indexHighly concentrate

27、d industry definitionUber price change by country in 2019ROD users who would increase usage 20%but this does not seem to have much of an impact on pricing (quite the contrary). Less than 5% of the markets we track globally have experienced a price decline since 201680%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%38%30%29

28、%55%51%48%70%67%67%There is a decent level of price elasticity (50% of ROD users would increase usage by more than 20% if prices were 20% lower)10% fare reduction20% fare reduction20162018201930% fare reductionNumber of downloads of the Uber app and ride-on-demand apps overall per week vs no. of new

29、 cars sold per week (000s)12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000Apr-15Nov-15Jun-16Dec-16Jul-17Dec-17Jul-18Dec-18Jul-19New cars sold per week0The popularity of ride-on-demand platforms remains very high. The weekly run rate of app downloads has stabilised at around 10m/week still a sharp multiple compared

30、with the number of new cars sold globally on a weekly basisReasons for not intending to purchase a car (in %)No driving license40%41% Use public35%36%transportation31%31%CostsWe have early signs that ROD could disrupt private car28% I walk or ride a bikeMedical or other reasonsUse taxisownership (th

31、e weight of respondents not purchasing a car due to ROD has doubled versus 2016) and public transport201620182019 Difficult to get car financing9%8%9%3%Use ride on demand servicesWillingness to use robotaxis by user group55%44%38% 40%37% 37%31%17% 19% 19%YesNoYesNoROD userROD non user70%60%50%40%30%

32、20%10%0%2016 2018 202059% 59%Acceptance of robotaxis is already relatively high for a technology that has yet to become available and mainstream. Acceptance is highest within the ROD heavy user group where c40% of the respondents would already be willing to ride in a robotaxi (23% are undecided at t

33、his stage).Ride-on-demand 1.0 market split todayRide-on-demand market share split globally (ex China)We do not see a global winner takes all situation, mainly because of regulation. We do not see existing leaders as the natural winners in a robotaxi world.The UBS Evidence Lab survey shows that Uber

34、is by a large margin the most popular service in Europe and the US (60% plus of respondents are aware, but have never used the brand).60%50%49%40%30%20%10%0%20142015201620172018201930%10%7%4%But competition is catching up fast at the regional level (Lyft in the US/Canada, BMW/Daimler mobility JV in

35、Europe, etc).UberGrabOlaDaimler/BMWOthersSources Company data, UBS research, UBS Evidence Lab, Sensor Tower. Note: Market share data and concentration are measured as a percentage of app downloads.NEAR AND MID-TERM SIGNPOSTSIn order to see whether our thesis is playing out, this is what we will be t

36、racking in the upcoming months/quarters:DATA RELEASE/EVENT DATEWHAT WE EXPECTFrom today Ongoing newsflow on theestablishment of new ride- on-demand services, the expansion of existing services, and the growth of user numbers and revenuesMore services, more cities, more usersThough occasional setback

37、s in the growth of ride-on-demand services seem inevitable (mostly regulatory driven), we expect the industry to continue growing. The largest players (Uber, Lyft, Didi, etc) will report user numbers and revenue on a quarterly basis, and we expect this data to go in one direction only.From 2020/21 M

38、ore established OEMslaunch robotaxi (pilot) services in various citiesSemi-annually/ UBS Evidence Lab appannually downloads/UberX pricing trends and ROD consumersurveyVW, Ford, Renault/Nissan, Volvo, Hyundai, Chinese OEMs and others launch pilot services in various citiesGoogle/Waymo is likely to be

39、 the first player to launch a relatively large-scale robotaxi service, followed by GM/Cruise and Daimler. From 2020, we expect a large number of OEMs (and potentially also some suppliers, like Aptiv or Baidu) to follow their lead with similar services.Ford announced at CES this year, it plans to lau

40、nch robotaxi pilot fleets in some US cities end of 2021 (Washington DC, Miami and Austin). Ford plans to put the vehicles on the platforms of existing ride-on-demand players such as Uber and Lyft, rather than go into competition.We plan to continue to update investors with UBS Evidence Labs unique p

41、roprietary dataUBS Evidence Lab has some unique time series emerging since we started to write about shared mobility in 2014.Figure 2: Stocks positively and negatively impacted by the themeImpacted bythe theme StockAnalystRatingPrice TargetShare priceUpside to PTPE 2020PE 2021PositivelyAlphabetEric

42、SheridanBuy1,6751,46714%30.3x27.3xLyftEric SheridanBuy64.048.432%-27.2x-62.1xAlibabaJerry LiuBuy27021426%31.9x25.7xBaiduJerry LiuBuy46038619%28.1x23.3xTencentJerry LiuBuy46038619%28.1x23.3xAppleTimothy ArcuriBuy35531812%23.7x20.1xIntelTimothy ArcuriBuy75.068.510%13.5x13.4xNvidiaTimothy ArcuriBuy3002

43、5020%43.4x30.3xInfineonDavid MulhollandBuy25.022.014%23.9x21.1xYandexUlyana LenvalskayBuy57.045.426%21.3x13.4xComfortDelGroRachel TanBuy2.602.2217%15.6x15.4xKakaoTaewon KimBuy170,000165,5003%36.9x30.9xAptivDavid LesneNeutral92.091.51%17.3x15.0 xMichelinDavid LesneBuy12510717%9.6x9.1xNegativelyPSADav

44、id LesneNeutral20.019.34%6.3x6.2xVeoneerDavid LesneSell14.013.63%-4.6x-6.8xFCAPatrick HummelNeutral12.012.1-1%5.5x5.1xSchaefflerPatrick HummelSell6.39.3-32%7.6x7.2xSource: UBS estimates; Note: prices as for US names are 24 Jan 2020 close, others are as of 27 Jan 2020.UBS ResearchPIVOTAL QUESTIONSret

45、urn Q: Is the ride-on-demand industry remaining disciplined on pricing?UBS VIEWYes. The ROD industry continues to fragment further, but this does not seem to have had an impact on prices (yet), as most markets experienced a price increase last year.We found there is a decent level of price elasticit

46、y (30% of ROD users would increase usage by more than 20% if prices were 10% lower). However, it appears ROD users have become less sensitive to price reductions over the past three years. In contrast, non-ROD users are turning more sensitive to price reductions. Therefore, we do not expect a price

47、war in the medium term. Meanwhile, the average spend per trip estimated by ROD user has stabilised compared with 2018 (after a sharp increase between 2016 and 2018 up a multiple of 3x in France, for instance).We have split the ROD 1.0 market into: (1) Uber leadership (the US, Canada, Europe); (2) in

48、cumbent leadership (Russia, China, Southeast Asia); (3) the battleground market (Ola); and (4) South America. The market share of Uber (as a proportion of total downloads) continues to normalise to lower levels. In Europe, the mobility joint venture (JV) between Daimler and BMW is gaining further tr

49、action with ROD users with its market share expanding to 19% in 2019 from 17% last year.EVIDENCEEvidence point 1: This is the eighth time since 2016 that the ROD app download analysis was run. The download analyses are based on the aggregation of iOS and Google Play data. The latest data point shows

50、 that the HHI has reached a level slightly below 1,500.Evidence point 2: The UberX pricing trends show that most markets have experienced a price increase (of the 700 tracked).Evidence point 3: The UBS Evidence Lab ROD survey, involving more than 17,000 respondents, shows that ROD users are becoming

51、 less sensitive to price reductions.Ride-on-demand industry fragmenting furtherThe ride-on-demand industry benefits from a fairly high level of concentration, which seems to us to have peaked in 2016. The top three players now control 51% of the market (2018: 58%), up from 47% in 2014, but down from

52、 70% at the peak in 2016 (as a percentage of app downloads) (Figure 3).We have calculated the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for ride-on-demand services (methodology below) to gauge the concentration level. The HHI increased from 1,700 in 2014 to close to 3,000 in 2016. Since then, however, it has

53、 declined steadily and currently stands below 1,500 (Figure 4). In the HHI methodology, a value above 2,500 reflects a highly concentrated industry.ROD no longer benefits from a high level of concentrationFigure 3: Market shares of the leading ROD platformsFigure 4: HHI concentration index for ROD s

54、ervices90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%80%63%51%3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500-201420152016201720182019Top 3Top 5Top 10201420152016201720182019HHI concentration indexHighly concentrated industry definitionSource: UBS Evidence Lab, Sensor Tower, iOS and GooglePlay combined. Note: Based on the share o

55、f global downloads; excludes ChinaSource: UBS Evidence Lab, Sensor Tower, iOS and GooglePlay combined. Note: Based on the share of global downloads; excludes Chinabut high level of concentration boosts pricing powerLet us now connect this high level of concentration with pricing trends. For this rep

56、ort, the UBS Evidence Lab Price Intelligence team has collected Uber prices on a weekly basis for 700 markets across 70 countries since June 2016. From this data set, we are able to track new market launches for UberX, as well as relative prices across markets and price changes. Figure 5 shows that

57、Uber has increased prices in 22% of its markets, while it has barely reduced prices in any markets, on average, over the period.Figure 5: UberX pricing trends globally since October 2016No markets have experienced a decline in prices over thepast five months100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%IncreaseS

58、ameDecreaseSource: UBS Evidence Lab.Note: One caveat: UBS Evidence Lab looks at base pricing and does not account for incentives, promotions or discounts.Figure 6: Uber price change by country in 2019Figure 7: Uber price change by city (%)Source: UBS Evidence LabSource: UBS Evidence LabIn the past,

59、we have not been able to find any strong correlation between changes in market share (as a percentage of app downloads) and changes in (UberX) pricing. We have once again run all possible correlations, but we did not find any strong ones. This can be explained by:Lack of pricing transparency: People

60、 initially download a shared mobility app without having much information on pricing.Lack of supply: Increasing pricing might be more relevant initially to address the lack of supply and attract new drivers. Our app downloads analysis does not capture data on supply.Mispricing: When a new market is