有點邪惡的詩詞說說：寵和愛是不同的兩件事

1、能源與環(huán)境模型 模擬模型 優(yōu)化模型http:/ of the Leap Model(模擬模型模擬模型)Methodological framework of Leap The problem is disaggregated into four active levels:1.Sector 2. Sub-sector3.End-use 4. Device Energy intensity and emission factors are associated with each device at the level 4 Total energy demand and emission amo

2、unt are calculatedMethodological framework of LeapEnergyIntensityEm issionFactorEm issionEnergyDem andT T r ra av ve el lD D e em m a an n d dS S u u b b - -s se ec ct to o r rE E n n d d - -U U s se eD D e ev vi ic ce eHow Leap Works Forecast the total travel demand Estimate the energy demand Estim

3、ate the emission amount and the concentration of pollutantsForecast the total travel demandVehicle Num berby typeEffectiveUtilizationby typeVehicle Spaceby typeElasticity coefficient betw een thetravel dem and and the incom eTotal Travel Dem andBased yearTotal Travel Dem andObjected yearEstimation o

4、f the energy demandT ra v e l D e m a n dzzR o a dR a ilE n e rg y D e m a n dM M o o t to o r rL L D D D D T TL L D D G G T T 2 2H H D D G G T TH H D D D D V VL L D D G G V VL L D D D D V VL L D D G G T T 1 1L L i ig g h h t tR R a a i il lS S u u b b w w a ay yF u e le ffic ie n c yV e h ic leS p

5、a c eEstimation of the emission amount and the concentration of pollutantsTravel DemandzzRoadRailEmission AmountObjected YearM otorM otorLDDTLDDTLDG T2LDG T2HDG THDG THDDVHDDVLDG VLDG VLDDVLDDVLDG T1LDG T1Li ghtLi ghtRai lRai lSubw aSubw ay yEmissionFactorType of FuelUsedAir Concentration (Based yea

6、r)Emission Amount (Based year)Air ConcentrationObjected YearData requirement for model inputData requirement for model input Calculating Precision Data Branch Travel Demand Active Levels (VKT) FactorCalculating Precision Basic calculation Only passenger transport are considered Vehicle typeGasoline

7、car, Diesel bus, Light rail, Subway Pollutant typeCO, NOx, HC, SO2, TSP, PM10, CO2Calculating Precision Advanced calculation Both passenger and freight transport are considered Vehicle typeLDGV, LDDV, LDGT1, LDGT2, LDDT, HDGTHDDV, Motorcycles, Light rail, Subway Pollutant typeCO, NOx, HC, SO2, TSP,

8、PM10, CO2Travel DemandPopulation 1990-2000Prediction of the natural growth rate of population %, 2000-2020Income per capita US $/person, 1990-2000Prediction of the growth rate of the income per capita %, 2000-2020Number of vehicles 1990-2000, by typeEffective utilization km/y, 1990-2000, by typeActi

9、ve Levels Sector Total travel demand Passenger km or Tonne km Sub-sector Share of the road traffic 1990-2000 End-use Share of each vehicle type Percent, 1990-2000 Device Vehicle space Passenger km/ Vehicle km or Tonne km/ Vehicle km Factor Average fuel efficiency km/l, 1990-2000, by vehicle types Fu

10、el Cost US$/l, 1990-2000 Average emission factor of each pollutant by vehicle types, by journey speed Emission amount and air concentration of each pollutant 1990-2000Energy Production and Consumption in China -high growth rate of energy productionEnergy Production in China 1949-1995YearTotal(Mtce)C

11、oal(Mt)Oil(Mt)NG(Gm3)Elec. Generation(TWh)TotalHydropower194923.7132.00.120.0074.30.7195248.7166.00.440.0087.317.3195798.61131.01.460.0719.34.81962171.85220.05.751.2145.89.01965188.24232.011.311.1087.610.41970309.90354.030.652.87115.920.51975487.54482.077.068.85195.847.61980637.35620.0105.9514.27300

12、.658.21985855.48872.0124.9012.93410.792.419901039.221080.0138.3115.30621.2126.719911048.441087.4140.9915.49677.6125.119921072.561116.4142.1015.79753.9132. 419931111.101150.7145.2416.77839.5151.819941187.291239.9.0146.0817.60928.1168.119951239.411298.0149.0017.601000.0188.0Future Forecast of Energy D

13、emand in China- Macro economic and demographic indicators1990200020102020GNP growth rate, %GNP, billion Yuan RMBpopulation, billionpopulation growth rate, %population in urban, 108population in rural, 10817681. 1433. 028.419. 041851. 2941.254.068.887. 586251.3900.725.108.806. 0154451.4500.426.508.00

14、Future Forecast of Energy Demand in China- Forecast on end-energy demand and mix1990200020102020Mtce%Mtce%Mtce%Mtce%Coal389.8740.9440.2231.6497.3026.5487.3320.4Oil5.530.60.000.00.000.000.000.00Natural Gas19.842.234.552.587.963.6132.005.5Electricity222.9824.6449.9532.3718.0938.31062.4744.4Oil Product

15、s131.2614.5240.1217.2293.7815.7349.314.6Washed Coal14.811.615.715.780.7Coke66.047.395.596.9116.846.2136.005.7Coke Oven Gas8.611.011.320.814.490.814.960.6Heat30.773.457.894.193.035.0132.615.6Others35.813.948.963.556.813.059.562.5Total905.341001394.41001874.8.1002390.05100Future Forecast o

16、f Energy Demand in China -Forecast on primary energy demand and mix1990200020102020Total (Mtce)987.021495.282001.042547.91Coal (Mt)1083.001491.001924.002250.00Oil (Mt)138.00200.00250.70300.90Natural Gas (Gm3)15.8030.0060.00120.00Hydropower & others (TWh)126.20288.20575.601094.80Energy Demand Mix (%)

17、Coal74.2571.2368.6363.08Oil18.9819.1717.8916.87Natural Gas2.012.663.996.29Hydropower4.74 6.467.159.18Others0.020.482.344.58Future Forecast of Energy Demand in China- prediction indications The total primary energy consumption will increase significantly. It will be more than doubled by 2020. The sha

18、re of coal in end use will decrease significantly, while still dominating the primary energy supply. Electricity will play a more important role in end use. Natural gas will increase but is limited by the supply. Industry will remain the major energy consumer in the target year, while the share of r

19、esidential energy consumption will slowly increase.Air Pollution Related to Energy Consumption -Pollutants Emissions Over Time Horizon at BAU ScenarioPollutants1990200020102020CO2 , Mt-CSO2 , MtNOx , MtPM, MtCO, MtCH4 , Mt64716. 239.1111.4929.167.69102723. 8015.6017.9950.4311.05136931.0921.9224.5970

20、.4015.09163635.5228.3929.6385.7818.29Conclusions-Reduction of primary energy supplies under enhanced environmental scenarios, Mtce200020102020B1-BAB2-BAB1-BAB2-BAB1-BAB2-BAPrimary energy suppliesIn which: Coal Hydropower Nuclear power Biomass-23.69-54.9719. 4811.8-29.38-60.6619. 4811.8-42.05-114.526

21、.4521.4724.54-52.26-153.039.6835.0024.54-62.64-158.928.1838.929.2-55.12-257.658.93114.429.20ImportExport2.47-1.352.38-0.882.50-0.081.98-0.391.97-0.76-4.86-0.88Supply of primary-22.57-27.89-39.64-52.26-65.38-60.86Note: Symbol “-“ indicates energy amount reduced.BA , B1, B2 represents BAU, scenario I

22、and II, respectively.Conclusions- Reduction of Pollutant Emissions for Enhanced Scenario I and II over BAU20002010 2020BAB1B2BAB1B2BAB1B2CO2Emiss. (MtC)Reduct.(MtC)Rate (%)102698244.74.3698244.24.301369128089.26.5112541158.39163514961398.50142620912.81COEmiss. (Mt)Reduct.(Mt)Rate (%)50.4348.372.064.

23、0847.333.106.1570.4066.563.845.4565.414.997.0985.7881.124.665.4379.636.157.17NOXEmiss. (Mt)Reduct.(Mt)Rate (%)15.6015.140.462.9515.220.382.4421.9220.960.964.3820.611.315.9828.3926.401.997.0125.243.1511.10SO2Emiss. (Mt)Reduct.(Mt)Rate (%)23.8020.842.9612.4420.453.3514.0831.0925.026.0719.5223.527.5724

24、.3535.5225.869.6627.1922.7412.7835.98PMEmiss. (Mt)Reduct.(Mt)Rate (%)17.9916.291.709.4516.321.679.2824.5921.083.5114.2720.314.2817.4129.6323.566.0720.4821.378.2627.88Energy Production and Consumption in China -Energy production and consumption locate unevenlyThe Distribution of Energy Resources and

25、Economic for 1990, %NorthernChinaNortheastEasternChinaCentralsouthSouthwestNorthwestTotal resources coal hydropower oil and natural gas32.347.89.611.43.615.58.023.79.967.84.720.023.69.911.1GNP13.6113.5234.0622.8610.105.85Total consumption coal electricity19.6120.4717.30

26、18.2717.0914.5425.4028.1129.3517.9616.6121.2011.7011.359.317.066.388.32ConclusionsWith the inclusion of above actions and options, what would happen under enhanced scenarios, compared with business-as-usual, is revealed below: Changing mix of primary energy supply Reducing the demand of primary ener

27、gy Mitigating emissions of various pollutantsConclusionsThe development strategy for sustainable development of energy and environmental protection includes: implementing comprehensive planning of energy, which incorporating environmental considerations; improving energy efficiency and conservation;

28、 diversifying energy supplies into non-coal sources; investing in industrial air pollution control.MODELING INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN MODELING INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN CHINA POWER SECTOR AND IMPLICATIONS CHINA POWER SECTOR AND IMPLICATIONS OF SINO-US CARBON TRADINGOF SINO-US CARBON TRADING( (優(yōu)化模型優(yōu)化模型

29、) ) The Goal of This Researchl Determine the most cost effective investment strategy for the required additional capacity to meet the increasing electricity demand of Chinal Investigate the impacts of the growing electric power sector on the environmentl Identify the impact of economic policies and

30、environmental regulations on the future technology choicesl Analyze the technological options available to China to reduce pollutionl Explore the possibility for US-China Carbon tradingCoal washingElectricity demands regionwide & nationwideDOMSMLDOMMEDDOMESPDOMSCBDOMBIGAFBCPFBCIGCCOILREGOILCCGASCCNU

31、CLEARHYDROWINDPVGTHH-coal MH-coal LH-coal HL-coal ML-coal LL-coal RailRoadShipRail & shipRaw coalRailPipelineShipRail & shipCrude oilNatural gaswiresTransmitted inter-regionallyRenewable ReservesParameters: Economic Technical Environmental SocialEmissions cap Emissions transfer limit Sulfur depositF

32、uel mining cost+ +Coal washing cost+ +Fuel transport cost+ +Electricity generation & transmission costMinimumOil & gas importParameter descriptions16 technologies: DOMSML: Unit capacity100MWDOMMED: 100-200 MWDOMESP: 300MW with ESPDOMSCB: 300MW with scrubberDOMBIG: 200-300 MW with ESPAFBC: foreign at

33、mospheric fluidized bedIGCC: integrated gasification combined cyclePFBC: Pressurized FBCOILREG: oil fired traditional unitOilcc: oil fired combined cycleGASCC: gas turbine combined cycleNUCLEAR: nuclear power HYDRO: hydroelectric powerWIND, PV, Geothermal powerSix types of coalHHCOAL:S 3%, ash 20%MH

34、COAL:S=1-3%, ash 20%LHCOAL:S1%, ash 20%HLCOAL:S 1%, ash20%MLCOAL:S =1-3%, ash 20%LLCOAL:S 1%, ash 20%Six Region Presentation of ChinaNortheastEastSouthwestSouthcentralNorthwestNorthModel Constraints Demand constraints to meet electricity demand in each time period and region Fuel supply constraints

35、Transportation capacity and transmission restrictions Electricity generation constraints based on conversion efficiencies and capacity factors of technologies Environmental constraints (limits on SO2 emissions, sulfur depositions, and CO2 targets)Levelized cost calculation to generate 1 KWh in EA re

36、gion12345678910111213141516DOMDOMDOMDOMDOMAFBCPFBCIGCCGASOILOILHYDNUCLWINDGTPVESPSCBMEDBIGSMLCCCCREGROEARCapital, $/KW607658650625676850112511508006005309001350100030004500Construction period, year3333233311287112economic life, year30303030203030302020205030201530Annual generation hours6500650060006

37、500550065006500650060006000550040007000300057002500Discounted rate, %10101010101010101010101010101010Interest factor3.313.313.313.312.103.313.313.311.001.002.1011.449.491.001.102.10Levelized capital, $/KW71.0477.0176.0873.1583.3799.48131.67134.60 93.9770.4865.37129.81194.15117.46433.86501.22Levelize

38、d capital, cent/KWh1.0931.1851.2681.1251.5161.5312.0262.071 1.5661.1751.1883.2452.7743.9157.61220.049Efficiency, %36.035.533.534.526.537.539.539.540.040.035.033.0Fuel consump., kgce/KWh0.3410.3460.3670.3560.4640.3280.3110.311 0.3070.3070.3510.372Fuel use, kg or m3/KWh0.4780.4850.5140.4990.6490.4590.

39、4360.436 0.2310.2150.2460.0038Fuel price, cent/kg or m31.501.501.501.501.501.501.501.509.0010.8410.8630Fuel cost, cent/KWh0.720.730.770.750.970.690.650.652.082.332.652.39Transport cost, cent/kg1.751.751.751.751.751.751.751.75000Fuel price1, cent/kg or m3 (1)53.253.259.0010.841

40、0.800.006300.000.000.00Fuel cost1, cent/KWh(2)1.551.581.671.622.111.491.421.422.082.332.650.002.390.000.000.00Variable cost, cent/KWh0.350.720.400.360.500.450.450.450.400.280.280.100.400.200.010.01Fixed cost, cent/KWh0.280.300.330.290.370.390.520.530.400.300.290.340.580.500.792.70Levelized cost, cen

41、t/KWh(3)2.4402.9362.7632.5223.0613.6483.705 4.4454.0864.4123.6836.1464.6158.40622.756Levelized cost1, cent/KWh(4)3.2763.7843.6623.3954.4953.8644.4114.467 4.4454.0864.4123.6836.1464.6158.40622.756Transmission cost, cent/KWhTransmission cost of 1 KWh from NO to EA is about 1.373 cents.Note: (1)Fuel pr

42、ice1 is defined as the fuel price in East, which equals to fuel price in North plus transportation cost from North to East (2)Fuel cost1 equals fuel use (kg or m3/kwh) multiplied by fuel price1 (cent/kg or m3) (3)Levelized cost is the sum of levelized capital, fuel cost, variable cost and fixed cost

43、 (4)Levelized cost is the sum of levelized capital, fuel cost1, variable cost and fixed costHow the model worksLevelized cost of electric power0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0TechnologyLevelized cost (1995 cent/kwh)DOMESPDOMBIGDOMMEDHYDRODOMSCBAFBCOILCCPFBCDOMSMLIGCCOILREGGASCCWINDNUCLEARGTHow the mod

44、el worksRESULTS OF THE POWER SECTOR MODELDeveloped by: Harvard UniversityCase2Case3Case4Case5Case1Case1.1Case1.2Case1.3Unrealistic casesRealistic casesBase caseWith SO2 constraintsWith SO2 & CO2 constraintsWith SO2 constraints + carbon tax $25/tCCapacity of each technology in year 2020 (GW) Case 1 C

45、ase 1.1 Case 1.2 Case 1.3 AFBC 0 0 0 0 DOMBIG 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.6 DOMESP 507.04 403.45 408.72 404.25 DOMMED 26.95 26.95 26.95 26.95 DOMSCB 0.72 102.31 46.79 102.02 DOMSML 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 GASCC 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 GT 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 HYDRO 57.4 57.4 138.46 57.4 IGCC 0 0 0 0 NUCLEAR 2.1 2.1

46、 2.1 2.1 OILCC 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 OILREG 0 0 0 0 PFBC 0 0 0 0 PV 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 WIND 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 Total 645.38 643.38 674.2 643.9 Unrealistic Cases Case 1 Case 1.1 Case 1.2 Case 1.3 Coal 93.79 93.43 85.32 93.40 Oil 0.08 0.43 0.46 0.46 Gas 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Hydro 5.73 5.73 13.81 5.73 Nucle

47、ar 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 Unrealistic casesPercentage of electricity generation by technologies Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 Coal 93.79 76.90 75.05 71.66 75.61 Oil 0.08 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 Gas 0.03 1.58 2.21 4.04 1.66 Hydro 5.73 19.02 20.24 20.09 20.24 Others 0.00 0.88 0.88 1.65 0.88 Nuclear 0.37 0.37 0.37 1.33 0.37 Mix of electricity generation for 5 cases in 2020 Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 1995 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 2.57 20