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1、祝大家英語學(xué)習(xí)進(jìn)步!經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測師們普遍預(yù)計(jì),2010年將是經(jīng)濟(jì)溫和增長的一年,增幅約為3%,大大好于此前兩年。The consensus of economic forecasters expects 2010 to be a year of modest e conomic growth - almost 3% - much better than the previous two years.但是,這還沒有好到將失業(yè)率降到衰退前的水平。而失業(yè)率一直是經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的最大持續(xù)性威脅。But that's not good enough to bring unemployment - the
2、greatest continuing t hreat to the economy - close to pre-recession levels.普遍預(yù)期在某些方面幾乎總是有錯(cuò)誤的;問題在于,經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)在哪些方面讓我們出乎意料。這在很大程度上取決于雇主將會(huì)招聘多少人。The consensus is almost always wrong in some respect; the question is in whi ch respects the economy will surprise us. A lot rides on how much hiring em ployers do.以下
3、是其它三大變數(shù)。Here are three of the other big variables.企業(yè)投資即將反彈。會(huì)嗎?Business investment is primed to rebound. Will it?經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退對(duì)消費(fèi)者支出的打擊引來了企業(yè)更嚴(yán)重的下滑。The pullback from consumers spooked by an economic downturn spurred an ev en sharper withdrawal by businesses.經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間的資本支出降幅超過了大蕭條以來的任何時(shí)期。Capital spending tumbled d
4、uring the recession more than it had at any time si nce the Great Depression.這意味著它有足夠的空間恢復(fù),如果企業(yè)能變得更加自信的話。That means it has plenty of room to recover, if businesses can grow more con fident.企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表總體看好。企業(yè)利潤上升、資本成本下降、生產(chǎn)力表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁。Business balance sheets overall look promising. Corporate profits are up, th
5、e c ost of capital is down and productivity is strong.企業(yè)有充足的資金進(jìn)行從機(jī)械到軟件等各方面的投資。Firms have plenty of funds to finance investments, from machinery to softw are.反映企業(yè)外部融資額的指標(biāo)公司資金缺口從今年第二季度的負(fù)1,530億美元變?yōu)榈谌径鹊呢?fù)1,890億美元。The corporate financing gap, a reflection of how much firms must raise extern ally, hit a n
6、egative $189 billion in the third quarter from a negative $153 billi on in the April-June period.負(fù)的融資缺口意味著企業(yè)有內(nèi)部資金支持它們的資本支出。A negative financing gap means companies have the funds in house to support their capital expenditures.Investment Technology Group Inc.的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家巴伯拉(Robert Barbera說,與美國的家庭狀況不同,企業(yè)領(lǐng)域
7、處于極好的財(cái)務(wù)狀況中。'Unlike the household sector, the corporate sector is in excellent fiscal condit ion,' says Robert Barbera, chief economist at Investment Technology Group In c.企業(yè)創(chuàng)造出的資金遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了它們的投資額。Businesses are wildly generating more money than they're using to invest.如果消費(fèi)者支出不出現(xiàn)溫和改善,資本支出不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)
8、持續(xù)反彈。A sustained rebound in capital expenditures can't occur without a modest im provement in consumer spending.但是,在過去1年大幅削減支出后,企業(yè)被壓抑的需求可能對(duì)讓經(jīng)濟(jì)獲得復(fù)蘇所需的速度至關(guān)重要。But pent-up demand by businesses, after slashing expenditures sharply in the p ast year, could prove critical in giving the economy the velo
9、city it needs to re cover.經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們都在指望資本支出的一些改善的跡象。在這方面,我們可能會(huì)在201 0年看到出乎意料的上升。Economists are on counting on some improvement in capital spending. On this front, we could see an upside surprise in 2010.房地產(chǎn)市場會(huì)否康復(fù)?Will housing heal?房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的麻煩顯然正在緩和。但房主、貸款機(jī)構(gòu)和建筑商在恢復(fù)信心前還有很長的路要走。Trouble throughout the housing s
10、ector clearly is abating. But homeowners, lend ers and builders have a long way to go before regaining confidence.房價(jià)的暴跌可能導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者減少消費(fèi),面臨貸款損失的銀行也會(huì)降低放貸額。Sharp home-price declines can lead consumers to spend less and banks, hit by loan losses, to lend less.雖然價(jià)格下降最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)期似乎已經(jīng)過去,但預(yù)計(jì)全國的房價(jià)在2010年只會(huì)出現(xiàn)小幅上漲。While t
11、he worst of the price drops appear to be over, home values nationwide are expected to show tiny gains - if any - throughout 2010.據(jù)抵押貸款銀行家協(xié)會(huì)說,到第三季度末,4.5%的貸款處于止贖程序中,高于上年同期的3%。At the end of the third quarter, 4.5% of loans were in the foreclosure process, up from 3% a year earlier, according to the Mor
12、tgage Bankers Association.此外,在所有貸款中有9.6%至少出現(xiàn)過一次逾期還款。除非失業(yè)率大幅下降,房地產(chǎn)市場將難以出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)。On top of that, 9.6% of all loans had at least one past-due payment. Until the unemployment rate recovers substantially, improvement will be elusive.所有這一切都意味著有更多的房屋進(jìn)入市場,進(jìn)而壓低房價(jià)。All of that means more homes coming on the market
13、, pushing values lower.奧沙利文(Jim O'Sullivan說,市場上仍有大量過剩房屋。由于供房沒有那么難了,我們將會(huì)慢慢消化這些過量供應(yīng),不過不管怎樣,房屋仍舊嚴(yán)重過剩。'There still is a huge, huge excess of homes,' says Jim O'Sullivan. Due to bett er home affordability 'you're going to eat into that glut over time, but nonethel ess there房屋銷售最近出
14、現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn),主要原因是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收購抵押貸款證券帶來的較低的抵押貸款利率,以及對(duì)買房人的聯(lián)邦減稅措施。Much of the recent improvement in sales is due to low mortgage rates, spurre d by the Federal Reserve's purchase of mortgage securities, and a federal tax c redit for home buyers.這兩項(xiàng)措施都將于明年年中之前到期。屆時(shí),房屋銷售活動(dòng)將會(huì)受到?jīng)_擊。Both measures are set to expire by th
15、e middle of next year. When they do, sa les activity will take a hit.樓市的一個(gè)領(lǐng)域可能會(huì)顯示出一些希望。經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期住宅投資大幅下滑,已經(jīng)沒有進(jìn)一步下降的空間了。One area of housing could show some hope. Residential investment fell so sha rply during the economic downturn that it has little room to decline further.11月份新屋銷售較2005年7月的峰值低74%,未來很多年都
16、不太可能會(huì)再回到那個(gè)水平。Sales of new homes in November stood 74% below the July 2005 peak and are unlikely to reach that level again for many years.不過庫存已經(jīng)降到了1971年以來的最低水平,因此房屋建設(shè)很可能會(huì)上升,推動(dòng)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。But inventories have been whittled down to the lowest level since 1971, so co nstruction is likely to rise and contribu
17、te to overall growth in the economy.在經(jīng)過了兩年的動(dòng)蕩之后,預(yù)測人士的普遍看法是,2010年樓市將出現(xiàn)小幅好轉(zhuǎn)。After two years of turmoil, forecasters' consensus view is for minor impro vement in housing in 2010.對(duì)房價(jià)來說,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很顯然是不斷增多的止贖帶來的下行壓力。不過房屋建設(shè)從低迷的水平開始回升,很有希望成為2010年的一大驚喜。For home prices, the risk is clearly to the downside given m
18、ounting foreclosur es. But home construction, starting from its depressed levels, has a good shot at being a positive surprise for 2010.失去公共領(lǐng)域的支持,經(jīng)濟(jì)能承受得住嗎?Will the economy withstand loss of public-sector support?2009年的大部分時(shí)間,政府都把美國經(jīng)濟(jì)置于一個(gè)人造心臟泵上。如果生命支持系統(tǒng)按計(jì)劃于2010年停運(yùn),我們可以料想會(huì)發(fā)生一些挫折,遭受打擊。The government put
19、 the U.S. economy on an artificial heart pump for much of 2009. If the life support comes off as scheduled in 2010, we can expect a fe w bruising setbacks.7,870億美元的減稅及支出刺激計(jì)劃是幫助今年下半年刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、提振信心的功臣。The $787 billion mix of tax cuts and spending deserves credit for helping to spur growth in the economy
20、- and improve confidence - in the second half of this year.高盛(Goldman Sachs經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)計(jì),2010年上半年,財(cái)政刺激計(jì)劃將繼續(xù)把年率化的增速提高兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。到下半年,刺激計(jì)劃的提振作用就會(huì)消失。Goldman Sachs economists expect fiscal stimulus will continue to boost annuali zed growth by two percentage points in the first half of 2010. In the second h alf, th
21、e boost is gone.勞動(dòng)力市場之外,經(jīng)濟(jì)上存在的最大問號(hào)是消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)將對(duì)政府支持的結(jié)束作出怎樣的反應(yīng)。Outside the labor market, the biggest question mark hanging over the econo my is how consumers and businesses respond when the government support fa des.在政府的救助之下,2009年有很多消費(fèi)者買了降價(jià)房子和車子。由于政府用納稅人的資金進(jìn)行了支持,企業(yè)也得到了建筑合同和利率更低的貸款。Many consumers picked u
22、p lower-priced houses and cars in 2009 thanks to go vernment aid. Businesses found construction contracts and cheaper loans thanks to taxpayer support.在這樣一個(gè)受到高失業(yè)率困擾的大選之年, 國會(huì)和白宮在著手計(jì)劃更多的項(xiàng)目 來促進(jìn)企業(yè)招工、支持地方政府、增加基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出。 Congress and the White House, in an election year plagued by high unemploy ment, are planning more programs to boost hiring by businesses, support local governments and inc
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