外文翻譯97-2003

1、華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯中國大豆生產(chǎn)與貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)基因調(diào)控對大豆市場的連帶影響原文來源：Shi Rong, Zhang Tao, Yan Xiaoqing: Soybean Production & Trade in ChinaImplicated Impacts of GMO Regulation on Soybean MarketJ. Ecological Economy,2005,01:77-86添加作者的名字.I介紹進入世貿(mào)組織后，面對國際競爭，中國糧食部門對這樣的競爭是否可能對中國農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)和市場造成的影響產(chǎn)生質(zhì)疑。主要作物領(lǐng)域如玉米和大豆的生產(chǎn)者，迅速面對外國廉價的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。

2、盡管大豆在中國上作為一種重要的傳統(tǒng)作物種植，但它的收益率確實低于美國和其他美洲國家。大豆消費迅速增加的同時，中國國內(nèi)大豆生產(chǎn)水平不能滿足需求。事實上，近年來，中國已經(jīng)成為一個大豆主要進口國。因此，國際競爭將對中國的大豆生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)構(gòu)成潛在威脅。此外，除了上述原因，轉(zhuǎn)基因生物(GMO)的食品安全和潛在的損害也受到了中國政府和消費者的關(guān)注。即使是幾十年前參加了綠色革命的專家也不信任利用現(xiàn)代生物技術(shù)來創(chuàng)造的轉(zhuǎn)基因農(nóng)作物可以作為我們的主要食物的替代品。植物和動物已經(jīng)被改良為抵抗疾病和昆蟲。轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆現(xiàn)在廣泛種植在作為中國大豆主要供應商的美國。雖然對轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆的科學測試沒結(jié)果表明其對生產(chǎn)和消費存在有害影響，

3、但同時其也缺乏科學信息或證據(jù)能夠證實轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆的食品安全。因此，盡管農(nóng)業(yè)生物技術(shù)迅速提高，它們的部署和影響仍一直受到爭議。此外， 中國政府想成為一個非轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆的主要出口國也擔心轉(zhuǎn)基因植物與其他作物產(chǎn)生交叉的潛在性。事實上， 由于對轉(zhuǎn)基因生物普遍持謹慎態(tài)度，日本和韓國的進口貿(mào)易商都有意圖擴大從中國進口大豆，中國的業(yè)務機會在擴張。因此，為了大豆貿(mào)易的成功和其他一些因素，中國是這些傾向于限制進口轉(zhuǎn)基因產(chǎn)品的國家之一。在2001年和2002年，中國政府批準了轉(zhuǎn)基因監(jiān)管規(guī)定及其三個措施。這個新的轉(zhuǎn)基因監(jiān)管使得美國農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)把這類行為看作貿(mào)易壁壘。事實上，轉(zhuǎn)基因監(jiān)管規(guī)定公布后，中國在2002年成功地拒絕進

4、口大豆。然而，這些阻止進口大豆的努力使得在短期內(nèi)中國的消費者被征收更高的價格。中國的消費者也將面臨更高的價格因為轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆貿(mào)易的申請程序成本將增加。盡管2002年宣布的臨時措施在某種程度上解決了這個問題，但它不能為交易商提供一個長期和穩(wěn)定的保證。這種轉(zhuǎn)基因監(jiān)管及其措施的影響仍難以評估。本文考察了中國的大豆生產(chǎn)業(yè)和轉(zhuǎn)基因監(jiān)管對大豆貿(mào)易的作用。文中采用CRTS Cobb-Douglas模型來估計中國的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，修正函數(shù)將應用在模型中來預測大豆產(chǎn)品技術(shù)變化的影響。此外，本文分析了中國的大豆市場和貿(mào)易，并提供一個方法論問題來分析轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆貿(mào)易規(guī)則的影響。II中國的大豆生產(chǎn)雖然中國的農(nóng)民在過去的五年里逐

5、漸提高了大約每公頃1.6 -1.7噸的產(chǎn)量， 在80年代每公頃產(chǎn)量大幅增加1.3噸，中國國內(nèi)大豆產(chǎn)量近年來沒有大幅改善。此外， 在過去的幾年中，中國大豆收獲面積的增長量已經(jīng)大大低于美國種植畝的增長。圖1描繪了從1961年到2001年的中國大豆產(chǎn)量。從這個圖可以發(fā)現(xiàn)， 產(chǎn)出最高的一年是1994年，當中國的總產(chǎn)量達1600萬噸。然而，總產(chǎn)量在1995年降至1350萬噸并在接下來的三年內(nèi)增長緩慢。在1999年，它從前一年的1515.2萬噸降至1425.1萬噸。2001年中國的大豆產(chǎn)量減少，即使種植面積已從2000年的930.6萬公頃擴大到2001年的948.18萬公頃。中國在2001年每公頃產(chǎn)量為1

6、625公斤，遠低于世界平均水平的2340公斤。因此，可以得出結(jié)論，在中國，大豆單位產(chǎn)量很低，需要顯著改善以滿足國家的需要。此外，加上政府的政策和財政支持符合世貿(mào)組織規(guī)則，擴大生產(chǎn)的努力可以包括大豆生產(chǎn)的技術(shù)變革和輸入價格波動。然而，技術(shù)變化對生產(chǎn)的總體影響是復雜的，因為各種影響因素的不確定性。另外，理解輸入和輸出之間的關(guān)系在評價政府的支持政策和技術(shù)變化對產(chǎn)出和利潤的有效性是很重要的。在本文中，我們制作基于Cobb Douglas函數(shù)的線性模型，來預測這樣的技術(shù)變革的影響。因為原料的高價格可以表現(xiàn)先進技術(shù)和商品的高品質(zhì)，分析中使用了輸入價格。這個將高質(zhì)量和高價格聯(lián)系起來的假設(shè)在我們的模型中非常重

7、要，我們將使用投入價格作為自變量來估計生產(chǎn)函數(shù)。V總結(jié)本文探討了中國的大豆生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)。它對大豆生產(chǎn)、國際貿(mào)易和轉(zhuǎn)基因的規(guī)定進行了研究，同時本文提供了總體回顧，圍繞著轉(zhuǎn)基因生物的貿(mào)易管理影響進行了方法論問題的討論。第二部分的主要興趣點在于回顧中國大豆生產(chǎn)和方法論問題是切實可行的，且可以被充分擴展到農(nóng)業(yè)植物系統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟效益的實證分析。在這一節(jié)中模型使用柯布·道格拉斯函數(shù)推導，這個模型的結(jié)果不僅可以為中國的決策者提供種植大豆的估計生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，還讓他們知道技術(shù)變革所帶來的不同的經(jīng)濟效益。本部分展示了技術(shù)變革和輸入價格波動對產(chǎn)量的影響。在第三部分中，文章強調(diào)了如果轉(zhuǎn)基因大豆生產(chǎn)商利用機會出口到其他國家

8、，那么市場準入的重要性。目前存在使用轉(zhuǎn)基因規(guī)定作為商業(yè)政策工具的單邊，地區(qū)和全球貿(mào)易環(huán)境。這些非關(guān)稅壁壘對美國關(guān)系重大，因為這樣的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量強制性標準可能會使其在與中國的貿(mào)易中承擔額外的成本。在本文的第三部分，我們首先回顧中國大豆消費和進口，然后概括中國的監(jiān)管在他們的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易特別是大豆貿(mào)易關(guān)系中所扮演的角色。我們使用我們自己的方法來分析調(diào)控大豆貿(mào)易的影響。本節(jié)中的模型可以用來確定轉(zhuǎn)基因監(jiān)管對于保護國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)的有效性。從上面的分析可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國的大豆生產(chǎn)能力相當?shù)?，目前的產(chǎn)量不能滿足其國內(nèi)需求。從長遠來看，提高中國的整體大豆生產(chǎn)能力取決于由中國政府采取必要的方法來進行技術(shù)輸入和農(nóng)業(yè)教育。另一方面

9、，雖然中國大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)可以受益于轉(zhuǎn)基因短期監(jiān)管等技術(shù)壁壘。然而，這種監(jiān)管將引起貿(mào)易矛盾同時損害國內(nèi)消費者。因此，任何政府想要使用這些措施之前都需要權(quán)衡。Soybean Production & Trade in ChinaImplicated impacts of GMO Regulation on Soybean MarketI. IntroductionAfter entering WTO, facing international competition, crop sector of China has raised questions about possible effects

10、 of such competition on Chinas agricultural production and market. Producers of major field crops, as corn and soybeans, have rapidly confronted foreign cheaper agricultural products. Although soybean is an important crop planted in China traditionally, the yield of it is rather lower than that of t

11、he US and other American countries. With rapidly increasing soybean consumption, Chinas domestic soybean production system cannot satisfy the demand. In fact, in recent years, China has become a major importer of soybeans. Thus, the international competition would have a potential threat to Chinas s

12、oybean production system.Furthermore, besides above reasons, the food-safety and potential damage of genetically modified organism (GMO) is also concerned by Chinese government and consumers. The use of modern biotechnology to create GMO allows agricultural crops as our main food to be an alternativ

13、e that was not believed even by specialists who took part in the green revolution decades ago. Plants and animals have been modified to resist diseases and insects. GMO soybeans are now planted widely in the US who is a main supplier of soybeans for China. Although the scientific tests have not show

14、n harmful effects on the production and consumption of GMO soybeans, there are also lacking in scientific information or evidence supporting and confirming the food-safety of GMO soybeans. As a result, even though agricultural biotechnology has been improved rapidly, their deployment and impact have

15、 been under controversy. In addition, the potential out crossing from GMO plants to other organisms is also concerned by Chinas government who wants to make China become a main exporter of GMO free soybeans. In fact, import traders in Japan and The Republic of Korea have the intention to expand soyb

16、ean importation from China due to prevalent wariness to GMO produces. The business chances are spread before China. Therefore, to succeed in the soybean trade and some other factors, China is one of those countries that tend to restrict importing GMO products. In 2001 and 2002, the Chinas government

17、 ratified the GMO regulation and its three measures. This new GMO regulation caused the concern in the US agriculture industry that regarded such moves as trade barrier. In fact, after the announcement of GMO regulation, China has successfully refused to import soybeans in 2002. However, such effort

18、s to block imported soybeans would impose higher prices on Chinas consumers in the short term. Consumers in China would also face higher prices as the trade costs associated with application procedure would be increased for GMO soybeans. Although the temporary measure announced in 2002 could resolve

19、 the issue to some extent, it could not provide a long-term and steady guarantee for traders. The impact of this GMO regulation and its measures is still difficult to assess. This paper examines the production system of soybeans in China and the effect that the GMO regulation have on soybean trade.

20、The CRTS Cobb-Douglas model is adopted in the paper to estimate the production function of China and the modified theoretical function will be applied in the model to forecast the impact of technical change on soybean production.Moreover, the paper analyzes the soybean market and trade in China, and

21、 provides a methodological issue to analyze the impact of GMO regulation on soybean trade.II. Soybean production in ChinaAlthough Chinas farmers have improved yields gradually in the past five years to roughly 1.6-1.7 tons per hectare, increasing sharply from the typical yield of 1.3 tons per hectar

22、e in the 1980s, Chinas domestic soybean production has not been improved sharply in recent years. Moreover, the growth of harvested area in China has been substantially lower than the growth of soybean planted acres in the US over the past several years.Fig. 1 represents the Chinas soybean output fr

23、om 1961 to 2001. It can be discovered from this figure that the highest output year was 1994, when the total yield of China was up to 16,000 thousand tons. However, the yield was dropped to 13,500 thousand tons in 1995 and grew slowly in next three years. In 1999 it dropped to 14,251 thousand tons f

24、rom 15,152 thousand tons in 1998. 2001 marked Chinas soybean yield reduction, even though the planted area had been expanded from 9.306 million hectares in 2000 to 9.4818 million hectares in 2001. Chinas per-hectare yield stood at 1,625 kilograms in 2001, far lower than the worlds average of 2,340 k

25、ilograms. Therefore, it can be concluded that the per-unit soybean output is very low in China and it should be improved dramatically to meet the need of country.Moreover, plus government policy and financial support in line with WTO rules, efforts to expand production can include the technical chan

26、ge of soybean production and the input price fluctuation. However, the overall impacts of technical changes on production are complicated because of various sources of uncertainty. In addition, understanding the relationship between input and output is important in evaluating the effectiveness of go

27、vernment support policies and technical changes on output and profit. In this paper, we make a linear model based on Cobb Douglas function, to estimate the impacts of such technical change. Because the high price of input material can represent advanced techniques and high quality embraced in the co

28、mmodities, input price is adopted in the analysis. This hypothesis of associating high quality with high price is very important in our model for we will estimate the production function by using input price as independent variable.V. ConclusionThe paper has explored the soybean production system in

29、 China. It investigates the soybean production, international trade and GMO regulation, and this paper also provides an overview of the review, debate and methodological issues surrounding impacts of GMO regulation to trade.The main interest of the second section lies in reviewing soybean production

30、 in China and the methodological issues that are practical and may be fruitfully extended to the empirical analysis of economic result of agricultural plant system. The model in this section is deduced from Cobb Douglas function and the result of this model can not only provide the decision-makers t

31、he estimated production function of planting soybeans in China but also let them know the different economic results of technical changes. The paper shows the impact of technical change and input price fluctuation on yields.In the third section, the paper highlights the great importance of market ac

32、cess if GMO soybean producers are to exploit opportunities for exports to other countries. There has been a use of GMO regulations as instruments of commercial policy in unilateral, regional, and global trade contexts. These non-tariff barriers are of particular concern to US, which may bear additional costs in meeting such mandatory standards in agro-product trade with China. In the third section of this paper, we begin with a review of Chinas soybean consumpti