人民幣實際有效匯率論文：人民幣實際有效匯率升值進出口影響

1、人民幣實際有效匯率論文：人民幣實際有效匯率 升值 進出口 影響 【中文摘要】 進出口貿(mào)易對拉動我國經(jīng)濟增長起著不可忽視的作 用。湖南雖然不是進出口大省，但湖南正在借“中部崛起”的歷史性 機遇,采取有效措施，擴大對外貿(mào)易規(guī)模，以促進經(jīng)濟增長。然而擴大 對外貿(mào)易規(guī)模，就必須要關(guān)注人民幣實際有效匯率升值對湖南進出口 的影響。因為人民幣實際有效匯率升值會導(dǎo)致湖南經(jīng)濟生活一系列調(diào) 整,尤其將直接導(dǎo)致進出口價格的變動，從而影響湖南對外貿(mào)易擴張。 因此研究人民幣實際有效匯率升值對湖南進出口貿(mào)易的影響 ，具有重 要的現(xiàn)實意義。 關(guān)于人民幣實際有效匯率升值對湖南省進出口貿(mào)易的 影響,學(xué)術(shù)界雖然已經(jīng)進行了一定的研

2、究，但就已有的研究成果看，尚 存在諸多不足之處，這不僅表現(xiàn)為研究視角的欠缺，更重要的是這些 研究范式單一，要么只做定性研究，要么只做定量分析，并且都以零散 的論文形式出現(xiàn)，尚未形成系統(tǒng)的研究成果。因此,本文試圖采用理論 分析和實證分析相結(jié)合的方法，填補該問題系統(tǒng)研究的空白。本研究 以購買力平價理論和彈性分析理論為基礎(chǔ)，首先分析近年人民幣實際 有效匯率升值的原因，因為原因存在的持續(xù)性，人民幣升值具有長期 趨勢。然后本文通過機制分析就人民幣匯率升值對湖南進出口產(chǎn)生影 響的渠道進行闡述，具體而言人民幣匯率將通過影響貿(mào)易價格、貿(mào)易 方式、貿(mào)易模式、貿(mào)易環(huán)境四個方面導(dǎo)致湖南進出口貿(mào)易的變動。進 而通過實

3、證分析對人民幣實際有效匯率升值對湖南進出口貿(mào)易的影 響從定量的角度進行探討。實證分析通過構(gòu)建計量模型 ，可以證明人 民幣實際有效匯率和湖南進出口貿(mào)易兩者間存在短期和長期的均衡 關(guān)系,并且就整體而言，人民幣實際有效匯率升值對湖南出口的影響 更為顯著。結(jié)合分析結(jié)論，本文提出湖南省進出口貿(mào)易應(yīng)當(dāng)提升質(zhì)量， 樹立品牌；優(yōu)化進出口貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)；發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略性新興出口產(chǎn)業(yè)；實現(xiàn)進出 口市場的廣泛性的對策建議。 【英文摘要】Import and export trade in stimulating economic growth plays a sig nifica nt role. Although Hunan

4、 province isn t an importa nt import and export provin ce, Hunan is using the historic opport unity of “ Rise of Cen tral Chi na ” ,to take effective measures to expand the scale of foreign trade and to promote econo mic growth. However, expa nding the scale of international trade, it is necessary t

5、o pay attention to the real effective exchange rate of RMBhppreciation on the impact of imports and exports in Hunan. Because the real effective excha nge rate appreciati on would lead a series of adjustme nts to economic life of Hunan, in particular, will lead direct changes in import and export pr

6、ices, then affect the expansion of foreig n trade in Hunan. Therefore, real effective excha nge rate of RMB appreciation on import and export of Hunan, has important practical significance.About the title, some academic researches have bee n done, but look at the exist ing research results, there ar

7、e still many shortcomings. Some of these studies not only lack of perspective, but also have a problem, a sin gle paradigm, or qualitative or qua ntitative analysis only. And all the fragmented paper form, haven t form a system research results. Therefore, this paper attempts to use a method, comb i

8、n ati on of theoretical and empirical an alysis to fill gaps in the systematic study of the problem.The purchas ing power parity theory and elasticity theory are the basic theory, at first the paper analysis the reasons why real effective excha nge rate of RMB appreciati on in rece nt years. The n t

9、hrough theoretical to an alysis the appreciati on of the RMB excha nge rate impact on imports and exports in Hunan, specifically, RMB excha nge rate will affect the trade price, trade methods, trade patter ns, and the trade en vir onment four aspects. And the n through empirical an alysis of the real effective excha nge rate appreciati on on import and export of Hunanby con struct ing a measureme nt model, the result can prove that the real effective excha nge rate and Hunan import and export trade have both short-term and Ion g-term equilibrium relati on ship, and on