金融市場(chǎng)與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告

金融市場(chǎng)與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告3.1TheFinancialMarketEconomyIndividualsandinstitutionshavedifferentincomestreamsanddifferentintertemporalconsumptionpreferences.Becauseofthis,amarkethasarisenformoney.Thepriceofmoneyistheinterestrate.TheFinancialMarketEconomy:ExleConsideradentistwhoearns$200,000peryearandchoosestoconsume$80,000peryear.Hehas$120,000insurplusmoneytoinvest.Hecouldloan$30,000toeachof4collegeseniors.Theyeachpromisetopayhimbackwithinterestaftertheygraduateinoneyear.DentistStudent#1Student#2Student#3Student#4$30,000$30,000$30,000$30,000$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)TheFinancialMarketEconomy:ExleRatherthanperformingthecreditanalysis4times,hecouldloanthewhole$120,000toafinancialintermediaryinreturnforapromisetorepaythe$120,000inoneyearwithinterest.Theintermediaryinturnloans$30,000toeachofthe4collegeseniors.Student#1Student#2Student#3Student#4$30,000$30,000$30,000Bank$120,000Dentist$30,000$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$120,000×(1+r)TheFinancialMarketEconomy:ExleFinancialintermediationcantakethreeforms:SizeintermediationIntheexleabove,thebanktookalargeloanfromthedentistandmadesmallloanstothestudents.TermintermediationCommercialbanksfinancelong-termmortgageswithshort-termdeposits.RiskintermediationFinancialintermediariescantailortheriskcharacteristicsofsecuritiesforborrowersandlenderswithdifferentdegreesofrisktolerance.MarketClearingThejobofbalancingthesupplyofanddemandforloanablefundsistakenbythemoneymarket.Whenthequantitysuppliedequalsthequantitydemanded,themarketisinequilibriumattheequilibriumprice.Thepriceofmoneyistheinterestrate.3.2MakingConsumptionChoicesoverTimeAnindividualcanalterhisconsumptionacrosstimeperiodsthroughborrowingandlending.Wecanillustratethisbygraphingconsumptiontodayversusconsumptioninthefuture.Thisgraphwillshowintertemporalconsumptionopportunities.IntertemporalConsumptionOpportunitySet$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayApersonwith$95,000whofacesa10%interestratehasthefollowingopportunityset.Onechoiceavailableistoconsume$40,000now;investtheremaining$55,000;consume$60,000nextyear.$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000Consumptionatt+1IntertemporalConsumptionOpportunitySet$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1Anotherchoiceavailableistoconsume$60,000now;investtheremaining$35,000;consume$38,500nextyear.ChangingOurOpportunities$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1Ariseininterestrateswillmakesavingmoreattractive……andborrowinglessattractive.Consideraninvestorwhohaschosentoconsume$40,000nowandtoconsume$60,000nextyear.3.3TheCompetitiveMarketInacompetitivemarket:Tradingiscostless.InformationaboutborrowingandlendingisavailableTherearemanytraders;noindividualcanmovemarketprices.Therecanbeonlyoneequilibriuminterestrateinacompetitivemarket—otherwisearbitrageopportunitieswouldarise.3.4TheBasicPrincipleThebasicfinancialprincipleofinvestmentdecisionmakingisthis:Aninvestmentmustbeatleastasdesirableastheopportunitiesavailableinthefinancialmarkets.3.5PracticingthePrinciple:ALendingExleConsideraninvestmentopportunitythatcosts$50,000thisyearanprovidesacertaincashflowof$54,000nextyear.Isthisagooddeal?Itdependsontheinterestrateavailableinthefinancialmarkets.Theinvestmenthasan8%return,iftheinterestrateavailableelsewhereislessthanthis,investhere.CashinflowsTimeCashoutflows01-$50,000$54,0003.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecisionConsideraninvestorwhohasaninitialendowmentofincomeof$40,000thisyearand$55,000nextyear.Supposethathefacesa10-percentinterestrateandisofferedthefollowinginvestment.CashinflowsTimeCashoutflows01-$25,000$30,0003.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision$0ConsumptiontodayOurinvestorbeginswiththefollowingopportunityset:endowmentof$40,000today,$55,000nextyearanda10%interestrate.Onechoiceavailableistoconsume$15,000now;investtheremaining$25,000inthefinancialmarketsat10%;consume$82,500nextyear.$0$99,000Consumptionatt+1$55,000$82,500$40,000$15,000$90,0003.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision$0ConsumptiontodayAbetteralternativewouldbetoinvestintheprojectinsteadofthefinancialmarkets.Hecouldconsume$15,000now;investtheremaining$25,000intheprojectat20%;consume$85,000nextyear.$0$99,000Consumptionatt+1$55,000$82,500$40,000$85,000$15,000$90,000Withborrowingorlendinginthefinancialmarkets,hecanachieveanypatternofcashflowshewants—anyofwhichisbetterthanhisoriginalopportunities.3.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision$0ConsumptiontodayNotethatwearebetteroffinthatwecancommandmoreconsumptiontodayornextyear.$0$99,000Consumptionatt+1$55,000$82,500$40,000$85,000$15,000$101,500$101,500=$15,000×(1.10)+$85,000$92,273=$15,000+$85,000÷(1.10)$90,000$92,2733.7CorporateInvestmentDecision?MakingShareholderswillbeunitedintheirpreferenceforthefirmtoundertakepositivenetpresentvaluedecisions,regardlessoftheirpersonalintertemporalconsumptionpreferences.CorporateInvestmentDecision?MakingConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1PositiveNPVprojectsshifttheshareholder’sopportunitysetout,whichisunambiguouslygood.AllshareholdersagreeontheirpreferenceforpositiveNPVprojects,whethertheyareborrowersorlender