2025年采礦及金屬行業(yè)十大業(yè)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與機(jī)遇-

Howdominersconfidentlyshapeopportunitiesto

createnewvalue?

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

Executivesummary

Executivesummary

Risksandopportunities

e

o

s

e

R

n

o

i

e

urce/rservdeplet

LiceetoperatcostanprodClimtehang

ewprject

gingusmodels

1

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n

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o

2

s

d

3

g

n

i

s

i

R

y

t

i

v

i

t

c

u

4

a

e

c

5

N

s

o

6

n

a

h

n

i

b

7

C

s

s

e

8

9

n

I

n

o

a

novti

10

4

2

0

0

2

2

5

2

.Upfrom2024

.Sameas2024

Newfor2025

.Downfrom2024

Nowisthetimefor

organizationstoact,totransform,toshapethefuturewithconfidence.

Anurgentfocusontheenergytransitionisdisruptingtheminingandmetalssectorandpermeatingthisyear’srisksandopportunitiesradar.Theworldhasrealizedthattheenergytransitionwillnothappen

withoutagreatersupplyofmineralsandmetals,butthesectorfacesatrifectaofchallenges:achievingsustainableminingwhilemanagingcapitaldisciplineandmeetinghigherstakeholderexpectations.Significanttransformationofthesectorisnowcritical,requiringinnovation,collaborationandagility.It’stimetoreimaginemining.

Long-termgrowthrequiresanewapproachtocapital

Nooneinthesectorwillbesurprisedthatcapitalisthenumberoneriskthisyear.Nearlyeveryminingcompanyhighlightsitsongoingfocusoncapitaldisciplineinitsquarterlyearningscalls,andthemarketrewardsthoseexhibitingstrongcapitalmanagement.Butunlockinggrowthrequiresashiftinfocus.Minerswillneedtothinkbeyondyield,usingexcesscapitaltoinvestinfuturevalue.

Thequestforvalueisalsobehindmoreconsolidationandportfoliorepositioning.Minersaredeterminingwhattokeepandwhattodivest,andweareseeingspin-offsofbothhigh-growthassetsintoseparatecompaniesaswellasnoncoreassets.

Surgingdemandhighlightsstrategicrisks

Thisyear’srankingisevidenceofamovetowardstrategicrisks.Newrisks—resourceandreservedepletion,andnewprojects—demonstrate

thisshift.Respondentstoldusofthechallengespresentedbylongleadtimesonnewprojects,decliningoregradesatexistingprojects,andtherisingcomplexityofextractingorebotheconomicallyandsustainably.

Newprojectsarealsobeingdevelopeddifferently.Environmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)considerationsarefrontofmind,withagreaterfocusonsustainabilityandlocalconsultation.Economicconsiderationsareinherentinassessingtechnicalandoperationalrisks,requiringa

laserfocusoncapitalandcashflowmanagement.Collaborationthroughjointventures(JVs)andpartnershipsisbecomingcriticaltomakethebestuseofcapitalandmitigategeopoliticalrisks.

Ongoingeconomicvolatilitymakesforachallengingbackdrop.Governmentsandcentralbankscontinuetobalancebringinginflationtotallyundercontrolwithstimulatinggrowth.Marketsareskittishoneconomicreleasesamidcontinuedconcernsaroundrecession,particularlyindevelopedmarkets.Whilerecessioncurrentlyseemsunlikely,wecouldseelowergrowth,whichmayrestrictcapitalavailablefornewenergyprojects.Thiscouldslowdemandinmining,pushupinputandoperationalcosts,andincreasethecostofcapital.

2

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

Executivesummary

Executivesummary

Risksandopportunities

Omissionoffourriskssoundsalarmbells

Thisyear’ssurveysawfourrisksfalloutofthetop10radar,raisingquestionsaboutwhetherminershaveminimizedtheimpactofkeyissues:

Governance:Thede-prioritizationofthe“G”inESGwasunexpected,asweseethisasagapforminers,given

theincreasedimportanceofresourcereplacementtakingplaceincountrieswithpotentiallyweakerregulatory

oversight.Net-positiveprogramsalsorequireboard-leveloversighttoensurethenet-positivestorydoesnotleadtoaccusationsofgreenwashing.Stronggovernancepoliciesarecriticaltosupportcommitmentstohumanrightsandtooutlinethestepsrequiredtoidentify,assessandaddressrisksrelatedtoforcedlabor,childlaborandanyotherformofmodernslavery.

Digital:Morethanhalf(59%)ofrespondentssaydigitalinitiativesarecriticaltothesuccessoftheorganization,

yettheissuedidnotmakethetop10.Asinpreviousyears,webelievethatminersnowviewdigitalasbusiness

asusual,ratherthanaspecificriskoropportunity.Investmentindigitalremainsstrong,withmorethanhalfof

respondentslookingtoincreasefundingintoartificialintelligence(AI),innovation,andresearchanddevelopmentoverthenextyear.

Workforce:Withthesector

facingsignificantchallengesinattractingandretainingthetalent

itneedstothrive,wefeelthatthisisanalarmingomissionfromtheradarthisyear.Workforceissuesimpactsomanyotherrisks,yet55%ofourrespondentsdidnotincludeitintheirtop10ranking.

Cybersecurity:Whilestillinvestingincybersecurity,minersappeartobeincyber“maintenancemode”after

establishingcybersecurityfunctionsandcapabilities.Butasriskscontinuallyevolve,sotooshouldcybersecurityprograms.Timewilltelliftheconfidenceofthe55%ofrespondentswhosaytheyarewellpositionedtotakeonfuturecyberthreatsisjustified.

Theyearaheadcallsfordecisiveaction.Mitigatingrisksandmakingthe

mostofopportunitiesrequirescompaniestotakeaproactive,diversified

approachtotransformation.Reviewingandadaptingcurrentbusinessmodels,adaptingnewones,andpushingaheadwithpartnershipsandinnovation

canhelpcompaniesseizecompetitiveadvantagewhilemeetingdemandinasustainable,optimalway.

3

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

Aboutthisreport

DuringJuneandJuly2024,EYsurveyedseniorminingandmetalsleadersfrom

organizationswithUS$1binrevenuethroughananonymousonlinesurvey.Intotal,353uniqueresponseswerecollected,with17%ofrespondentsatboardorC-suitelevel;48%leadingdepartments,businessunitsorcommoditygroups;and35%atpresident,vice

presidentordirectorlevel.

EYcontacts

EYGlobalandEYAsia-Pacific

Mining&MetalsLeader

PaulMitchell

paul.mitchell@

ChinaandMongolia

LibbyZhong

libby.zhong@

Japan

AndrewCowell

andrew.cowell@

Oceania

MichaelRundus

michael

.rundus@

EYAmericasandCanadaMiningandMetalsLeader

TheoYameogo

theo.yameogo@

Brazil

AfonsoSartorio

afonso.sartorio@

Chile

AliciaDominguezVaras

alicia.dominguez@

UnitedStates

KakiGiauque

kaki.giauque@

EYEMEIAandEYUKI

MiningandMetalsLeader

LeeDownham

lee.downham@

Africa

WickusBotha

wickus.botha@

India

VikramMehta

vikram.mehta@srb.in

Nordics

MagnusEllstr?m

magnus.ellstrom@

Capital

Licensetooperate

Risingcostsandproductivity

Geopolitics

Climatechange

Newprojects

Resource/reservedepletion

Changingbusinessmodels

Innovation

Environmentalstewardship

Risksandopportunities

1.Capital

Miningcompaniesarealsospinningoffeithernoncoreorhigh-growth

assetsintoseparatecompanies,e.g.,ValeBaseMetals.2Weexpectthis

trendtoaccelerateasmanagementlooksatwaystobalanceportfolios

tocontributegrowthormuch-neededinvestmentcapitaltoberedirectedtowardgrowthprojects.Thisyear’srespondentsnotedcapitalbeing

allocatedtoneworchangingbusinessmodelsasminingcompanieslooktoinvestingrowthareas,e.g.,integratingrecyclingorverticalintegrationintoadvancedprocessing.Weexplorethismoreinour“

Changingbusiness

models

”section.Brownfieldprojectsandacquisitionsremainareasof

focus.Bringingonnewsupplyischallenging.Explorationandgreenfieldprojectsarenotreceivingtheinvestmentrequiredtoheadoffsupply

deficitsinmanycommoditymarkets(weexplorethisfurtherinthe

“

Resourceandreservedepletion

”and“

Newprojects

”sections).Theraceforcoppermaybuckthetrend,withpromisedhighrewardsencouragingexplorationandnewminedevelopment.RioTintohasannounceditwill

prioritizenewcopperminestoproduce1mtpawithinthenextfiveyears.3Endusersofcopperarealsoexpectedtoconsiderpartnershipswithmajorminerstodevelopnewprojects.4

Minersneedtoaccelerategrowthwhilemaintainingdisciplineandreturns.

Toughfinancingandmacroeconomicconditionsare

makingitmoredifficultforminerstoraisecapitaldespitethegrowingneedforcriticalminerals.Investorsnow

expectastrongfocusoncapitaldisciplineandreturnsthroughdividendsandsharebuybacks,andthisdrivesgreaterscrutinyofhowinvestmentcapitalisdeployed.

Doyouexpecttoactivelypursueanyofthefollowinginitiativesoverthenext12months?

76%

33%

54%

Marketvaluationsareincreasinglydiverging,withhigh-growthstocksbeingrewardedwithstrongermultiples,typicallyonthebackofportfoliosfocusedonthesupplyofcriticalmineralsintotheenergytransition.Thisis

forcingmanagementtolookhardatportfolios,andwearebeginningtoseestructuralchanges,withM&Aatthecore.

InarecentEYCEOOutlookPulseSurvey,allminingand

metalsrespondentssaidtheyplantoundertakesomeform

oftransactionoverthenext12months.Indigenous

knowledgeandsustainablelandmanagementexperiencemakecommunitiesessentialpartnersinmeetingnature-positivegoals.

JVsandstrategicpartnerships

M&A

Divestments,spin-offsorinitialpublicofferings

Mergersofthepastfewyearshavelargelybeeningoldascompaniesscaleoperationsandsecurestrategicassets.

Source:EYCEOOutlookPulseSurveyApril2024.

Witharobustoutlookforcopperdemand,weexpecttoseemoreconsolidationofcopperassetsbythemajors,e.g.,

theBHP-LundinMiningJVUS$3bacquisitionofFiloCorp.inArgentina.1

4

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

Capital

Licensetooperate

Environmentalstewardship

Risingcostsandproductivity

Geopolitics

Climatechange

Newprojects

Resource/reservedepletion

Changingbusinessmodels

Innovation

Whilecoreupstreaminvestmentscarrythebestlong-termreturns,theybringriskandcreatevolatilityintheshort-term.Toreduce

this,miningcompaniescouldconsiderinvestingindifferentpartsofthevaluechain(downstream,logistics,etc.).However,ultimately,

minerswillneedtodetermineifthesedecisionsdilutethereturnsrequiredbyinvestorsoverthelongterm.

Wealsoseeevidencethatbatterymineralproducersare

rethinkingcapitalallocation.Withlithium,cobaltandnickelpricesdown,playersaremaintainingcapitaldisciplineandholdingoffonexplorationanddevelopment.Forexample,AlbemarleanticipatesreducinginvestmentsthisyeartoUS$1.6b,comparedwith

US$2.1bin2023.5Overthelongerterm,thisislikelytotightenthebatterymineralmarketasdemandincreases.

Somecompaniesmaydelaymajorinvestmentdecisionsas

electionsarecreatingsomeuncertainty.Thiscould,forexample,impacttheflowofcapitalintotheUSminingsector,particularly

inareasrelatedtocriticalmineralsandbatterytechnology.

However,therearealsoopportunitiestoaccessarangeof

productiontaxcredits,subsidies,loansorguaranteesofferedundergovernmentpolicies.

Miningcompanieshavebecomeyieldplaysandarenot

necessarilyabletoaccessthesamelevelofcapitalasaresult.

Thisapproachtofinancingwilllikelyneedtochangeforcompaniesseekingtobringgreatersupplyonlinefortheenergytransition.

Miningcompaniesareaccessingawiderrangeofcapital.Onaverage,oursurveyrespondentsareconsideringuptofour

sourcesoffinanceandtheyrankalternativesourcesofcapitalsuchascommoditytraders,supplierfundingandexportcreditfinance

ashighlyastraditionaldebtandequity.Minersarealsoconsideringpartnerships,JVsorintegrationtohelpsharethefinancialburdenandmitigaterisksoflarge-scaleprojects.

5

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

Sourcesofcapitalunderconsideration

Commoditytraders

Supplierfunding

Exportcredit?nance

Traditionaldebtandequity

JVsorstrategicalliances

Originalequipmentmanufacturers

Sovereignwealthfunds

Customers

Royaltyorproduction-based?nancing

Governments

37%34%

33% 32%32%27%

41%

40%

40%

40%

Note:Respondentscouldchoosemorethanoneoption.

Source:EYBusinessRisksandOpportunitiesStudy2025.

Capital

Licensetooperate

Environmentalstewardship

Risingcostsandproductivity

Geopolitics

Climatechange

Newprojects

Resource/reservedepletion

Changingbusinessmodels

Innovation

Capital

Keyconsiderations:

?Evolvecapitalstrategytonavigatelong-termchallenges:Organizationsthatadapt

capitalstrategiescanbetteraccommodatepotentiallong-termmarketshifts.This

includesrefocusingorreidentifyingcorebusinessareas,andmeticulouslyplanningandprioritizinginitiativesthatalignwithstrategicobjectivesandgoals.

?Investinmanagingsustainabilityrisk:CapitalallocatedtoESG-relatedinitiativesmightnotshowreturnsintheshorttermbuthasthepotentialtodelivervalueinthelonger

term.Examplesoftheseinvestmentsincludenewtechnologiesaimedatpreventing

adverseevents(e.g.,tailingsdamfailureorinvestmentinprogressiverehabilitationandremediationofclosedmines).

1

Upfrom2024

6

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

Environmentalstewardship

Risksandopportunities

2.Environmentalstewardship

Minershaveelevatedenvironmental

stewardshipaboveabroaderfocusonESG.

Asignificantupliftinnature-positiveinitiativesisevident

sinceourlastreport.Almosthalfofrespondents(46%)areextremelyorveryconfidentaboutmeetingtheirnature-

positiveobligations.

TheInternationalCouncilonMiningandMetals(ICMM)

membersareleadingtheway,havingannouncednature-positivecommitmentsinJanuary2024.TheChairof

ICMM’sCouncilNatureAdvisoryGroupandCEOofTeck

ResourcesLimited,JonathanPrice,explains:“Collaborationacrossallsectorsisessentialtohelpstopandreverse

natureloss,andICMM’snaturecommitmentswillhelp

companiestoscaleuptheirexistingeffortsanddrivelocalandregionalpartnershipstobetterprotectandrestore

ourlandscapesandecosystemsforthebenefitofall.”6ItisestimatedthataquarteroftheearthisinthecareofIndigenouscommunities—andtheseareasareinbetterenvironmentalshapethanothers.7

Growingexpectationsaroundsustainabilityperformance

andmorecomplexobligationsarestretchingsmallin-housesustainabilityteams.Asaresult,weseeminersfocusing

onthoseareasbeingmeasured,particularlyasnew

standardssuchastheTaskforceonNature-relatedFinancialDisclosures(TNFD)andGlobalIndustryStandardonTailingsManagement(ISTM)loomlarge.

Interestingly,ourstudyfoundthefocusonwasteisbroaderthan

tailings.Progressiveminersarecapturingvaluefromwastethroughimprovingminingperformance(higherstripratiosoruseofmarginalores),implementingclosedloopstominimizewasteandemissions,

andreprocessingtailings.Universitieshavebeensupportingtheseefforts.

Forexample,theCriticalMaterialsInnovationHubatColoradoSchoolof

Minesfocusesonimprovingprimarymineralprocessingandrecovery,aswellassecondaryrecoverythroughrecyclingofmanufacturingwasteandend-of-lifeproducts.8

WhichareasofESGwillfacethemostscrutinyfrominvestorsintheminingandmetalssectoroverthenext12months?

28%

31%

31%

44%

Climatechange

Waterstewardship

Nature/biodiversity

Wastemanagement

Note:Respondentscouldchoosemorethanoneoption.

Source:EYBusinessRisksandOpportunitiesStudy2025.

Capital

Licensetooperate

Risingcostsandproductivity

Geopolitics

Climatechange

Newprojects

Resource/reservedepletion

Changingbusinessmodels

Innovation

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

7

Licensetooperate

Risingcostsandproductivity

Geopolitics

Climatechange

Newprojects

Resource/reservedepletion

Changingbusinessmodels

Innovation

Capital

Environmentalstewardship

Environmentalstewardship

Keyconsiderations:

?Identifyopportunitiestoachieveanet-positiveimpact.Minersshouldconsidertheentiremininglifecycle—fromexplorationtoreclamation—ensuringthereisadefensiblebaseline.

?Determinestrategiestousetechnologyanddata.EnhanceduseofdigitalcanimproveESGmonitoringandmeasurement,particularlyinareasundergreaterinvestorscrutiny,suchaswaterstewardshipandtailingsmanagement.

?EnsureanintegratedapproachtomanagingESGrisksandopportunities.

IntegratingESGissuesintoexistinggovernanceandoversightmodelsmitigatestheriskofunidentifiedgapsinriskcoverageacrossthecompany.

2

Downfrom2024

8

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

Resource/reservedepletion

Changingbusinessmodels

Risingcostsandproductivity

Environmentalstewardship

Licensetooperate

Climatechange

Newprojects

Geopolitics

Innovation

Capital

Risksandopportunities

regulationofnewgovernmentsarelikelytoaccelerategeopolitical

uncertainty.Miningcompanieswillneedtobereadytonotonly

Resourcenationalismisaffectingtaxrules.AsoutlinedinarecentICMM

report(supportedbytheEYMining&Metalsteam),

UnlockingProsperity:

TaxPrinciplesforSustainableMining

,governmentsneedtobalancenationalrevenuegoals,expectedinvestmentreturnsoveramine’slifeandbenefits

tocommunity.Miningcompanieslookforcertaintywithinapredictable

fiscalregimeoverthelifeofminetoenablelong-termplanningandreturn

oninvestment.Thismeansgovernmentsshouldaimtodesigntaxesthat

encouragelargeinitialcapitalinvestmentinlong-termprojects.Tounlock

theinvestmentinminingthatisneededtoenabletheenergytransition,

governmentsshouldaimtodesignpoliciesthatencouragelargeinitialcapitalinvestmentinlong-termprojects.Overthenext12months,policiesand

3.Geopolitics

Theenergytransitionandincreasedgeopoliticaluncertaintydemandsthesectortotakeamorestrategicrole.

Moregovernmentsareprioritizingself-sufficiencyin

strategicsectors,suchasmining,tobolsternationalsecurity.Somearefundingmineralprojectsbothdomesticallyand

navigatechallengesbutalsoseizeopportunities.InSouthAfrica,thesectorhopesforarefocusonmininginvestment,whileinIndia,policysupportforinfrastructureandmanufacturing—whichwouldsupportdemandforminerals—isexpectedtocontinue.InMexico,thenew

governmentcouldbanopenpitmining.11Mostnotably,achangeingovernmentintheUScouldhavesignificantconsequencesforthe

miningsectordomesticallyandabroad,particularlyaroundregulationsandpolicy-induceddemandforminerals,suchasviasupportforEV

productionandsales.

Whatactionsdoyouexpectgovernmentstotakeoverthenext12monthsinrelationtotheminingandmetalssector?

abroadtoensuresupply—Japanwillsubsidizeuptohalfthecostofnewcriticalmineralminesandsmeltingprojects,

whileSaudiArabiahasannouncedUS$182minexploration

incentives.9Inmineral-richcountries,effortsareunderwaytobuildvalue-addedprocessingcapabilities.

42%

Mandatedbene?ciation

EnhancedregulationrelativetoESGRegulationtoreducebarriersorexpeditepermittingIncreasedrequirementsforstakeholderconsultationIncreasedexportduties

Policiestoattractforeigninvestment

Increasedtaxesandroyalties

Apriceoncarbon

IncreasedtaxtransparencyrequirementsAmendedmininglawstospeedupgrantingoflicensesNationalization

Incentives

37%36%

35%34%

34%32%

32%30%

29%28%

23%

Theworld’ssupplyofstrategicmineralsandmetalsis

highlyconcentrated,creatinggeopoliticalcomplexityand

highlightingtheimportanceoftransparentsupplychains.TheUShasunveiledplanstosourcecriticalmineralsfrom

“friendly”countriesbutalsowantstoensurethatrefining

andprocessingfacilitiesarenotlinkedtoinvestmentfrom

“coverednations”(currentlydefinedasChina,Iran,North

KoreaandRussiaintheUSBipartisanInfrastructureLaw

(BIL)).From2024,undernewUSForeignEntityOwnershipRules,domesticmanufacturerswillnotreceiveasection

30DCleanVehicleTaxCreditifanelectricvehicle(EV)

containsbatterycomponentsmanufacturedorisassembledbya“foreignentityofconcern”,whichtheBILdefinesasanentity“ownedby,controlledby,orsubjecttothejurisdictionordirectionofagovernmentofaforeigncountrythatisa

Note:Respondentscouldchoosemorethanoneoption.

Source:EYBusinessRisksandOpportunitiesStudy2025.

coverednation”.10Thiscreatesparticularchallengesfornickelandgraphitesupplychains.

9

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

Licensetooperate

Risingcostsandproductivity

Geopolitics

Climatechange

Newprojects

Resource/reservedepletion

Changingbusinessmodels

Innovation

Capital

Environmentalstewardship

Geopolitics

3

Keyconsiderations:

?Developalternativestrategicoptions.Consideringdifferentapproaches,suchasJVswithlocalcompaniesandlicensing,canhelpderiskinvestmentinnewprojectsinnewgeographies.

?Buildsupplychainresiliency.Mappingsupplychainsandstresstestingundermultiplescenarioscanhelpcompaniesunderstandandaddresstheimpactofongoingand

futuredisruptions,andidentifymajorweaknesses.Corporationscanalsoconsider

deployingAIinsupplychainsfordemandplanningandprocurement.Inan

EYstudy

on

generativeAI

(GenAI)andsupplychains

,83%ofminersrespondedthatintegratingGenAIintosupplychainswillprovidecompetitiveadvantage.

?ExploreopportunitiesinEVsandenergy.Asgovernmentinvestmentintheseareasincreases,mineralsandmetalsuppliers,inboththelargestmarketsandgeopoliticalswingstates,shouldassesshowpoliciescreateopportunities.Assessmentsshouldconsidertheimpactofgeopoliticaldynamicsandalliances.

Upfrom2024

10

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

Resource/reservedepletion

Changingbusinessmodels

Risingcostsandproductivity

Environmentalstewardship

Licensetooperate

Climatechange

Newprojects

Geopolitics

Innovation

Capital

Risksandopportunities

4.Resourceandreservedepletion

longer,aspermittingprocessescanbechallengingandrequiresubstantialstakeholdernegotiation.

Extractingreserveseconomicallyandsustainablyiscomplex.

Extractingdeepmineraldepositsrequiresadvancedextractiontechnologyandequipmentthatarehighlycapitalandenergyintensive,andmay

havelong-termenvironmentalimpacts.IntheUS,mineralextractionis

estimatedtoconsume~4bgallonsofwateraday,whichisequivalenttotheaveragedailywateruseof40,000households.19

Thelasttwodecadeshaveseenfewmajornewcopperdiscoveries(seechartbelow).Overthesameperiod,thecostofexplorationhassoared—theestimatedcostofcopperexplorationin2011wasUS$91/tonnebutincreasedtoUS$802/tonnein2020.17

Miners’abilitytoeffectivelyreplaceorincreasereservesisalsohinderedbylongleadtimesonprojects.Averageleadtimesare~18yearsformines

startingoperationsin2020–23versus~13yearsforminesthatcommenced15yearsago.18Despiteshorterconstructiontimes,minedevelopmenttakes

Asupplyshortfallmayoccurifthereisn’tsufficientinvestmentinexplorationandminedevelopment.

Iftheworldisgoingtoachievenet-zerogoals,wewillneed

atleast41milliontonnesofcopperperyearby2050,

whichwouldrequirebuildingaround40newcoppermines

Majorcopperdiscoverieshavedeclined2004–23

thesizeofQuellaveco(~300kt/year).12Butwearenotseeingalargeuptickinexplorationexpenditure,raisingtheriskof

depletedresources.

Numberofcopperdiscoveries

75newcopperdiscoveries(2004–13)

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

16

Theissueisexacerbatedbydecliningoregrades,which

isincreasingthecostofextraction.High-graderesources

CopperpriceUS$/tonne

14

arenearingexhaustion,andaccessingmetalsfromnew

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

projectswithloweroregradesrequiresgreaterexpenditureandenergy.Mostoftheplannedglobalcoppergreenfield

projectshaveagradeof0.5%orlower,13comparedwithanaverage0.8%gradein2010.14

14newcopperdiscoveries

(2014–23)

4,000

Capitalraisingisdown4%y-o-yin2023,withthislack

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

offinancinghinderingminingactivity.2023sawjust

US$11.6binfundsraisedbyjuniorandintermediate

companies,15withthedeclinemainlyattributabletolowercommoditypricesandhighercostofcapital.

20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Explorationbudgetsareup37%on2019figures,and

NumberofdiscoveriesCopperprice(averageannualpriceUS$/t)Source:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligenceexplorationdata;Macrotrends;EYanalysis.

investmentremainsfocusedongold.In2020–22,morethanhalfofexplorationinvestmentwasdirectedatgold,withcoppercapturing21%oftotalexplorationbudgets.In2023,wesawthebeginningsofashift,withcopper,lithiumandnickelexplorationbudgetsup12%,77%and45%respectively.16

11

Top10businessrisksandopportunitiesforminingandmetalsin2025

Licensetooperate

Environmentalstewardship

Risingcostsandproductivity

Geopolitics

Climatechange

Newprojects

Resource/reservedepletion

Changingbusinessmodels

Innovation

Capital

Resource

andreserve

depletion

4

Newfor2025

Keyconsiderations:

?Investinnewexplorationtechnologies.AIandmachinelearningcansupport

exploration,helpingminersanalyzelargeamountsofgeologicaldatatoenhancepredictions.

?ReplacelowerreservesthroughM&A.Companiesthatacquireprojectscanreplenishdepletingreservesandgainsynergiestoensurehigherproductivity.Inthegoldsector,highpriceshaveincentivizedexploration,whichisacceleratingresourcedepletionandencouragingconsolidationasplayersseektosustain