高盛-變革中的中國(guó)：聚焦產(chǎn)能周期-面對(duì)不均衡、判斷轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)、穿越長(zhǎng)周期

評(píng)估其韌性、發(fā)展機(jī)遇和潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在經(jīng)歷了低迷的一年之后，我們選取了七個(gè)在著地位的行業(yè)作為樣本，這些行業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)了中國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)的22%。其中五個(gè)行體需求，這種不均衡導(dǎo)致一些行業(yè)內(nèi)超過(guò)50%的我們的結(jié)論是，面對(duì)欠佳的盈利能力和歐美市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入限制方面的不我們的“三項(xiàng)原則”和“臨界點(diǎn)”研究框架顯示：折點(diǎn)，因其現(xiàn)金利潤(rùn)率為負(fù)值且資本支出計(jì)劃被削減高盛（亞洲）有限責(zé)任高盛（亞洲高盛與其研究報(bào)告所分析的企業(yè)存在業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)系,并且繼續(xù)尋求發(fā)展這些關(guān)系。因此,投資者應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮到本公司可能存在可能影響本報(bào)告客觀(guān)性的利益沖突,不應(yīng)視本報(bào)告為作出投資決策的唯-因素。有關(guān)分析師的申明和其他重要信息,見(jiàn)信息披露附錄,或參閱/research/hedge.htmI。由非美國(guó)附屬公司聘用的分析師完整作者名單見(jiàn)內(nèi)文鄭睿豐,CFA沈科lithiumbatteriespowersemislithiumbatteriespowersemis(IGBT)solarmoduleselectricvehiclesairconditionersconstructionmachinerysteel75%ofglobalsupply55%ex-China42%ofitsoutput86%ofglobalsupply72%ex-China42%ofitsoutput81%ofglobalsupply65%ex-75%ofglobalsupply55%ex-China42%ofitsoutput86%ofglobalsupply72%ex-China42%ofitsoutput81%ofglobalsupply65%ex-China37%ofitsoutput66%ofglobalsupply26%ex-China19%ofitsoutput29%ofglobalsupply6%ex-China15%ofitsoutput54%ofglobalsupply16%ex-China16%ofitsoutput33%ofglobalsupply21%ex-China53%ofitsoutputChinasuppliesMktshare2023AChinaexports2023AChanges20-23A23-28E20-23A23-28E20-23A23-28E20-23A23-28E23-28E20-23A20-23A23-28E20-23A23-28EDomesticdemandExports/ex-ChinacapacityEx-Chinamktshare+0.2x+0.0x+3.4x+1.1x+5.7x+2.0x+6.0x+1.1x+0.7x+0.5x-0.1x-0.1x-0.7x+0.9x+0.2x+0.1x+1.9x+0.8x+7.2x+2.0x+6.7x+2.6x+2.7x+1.6x+0.2x+0.1x+2.0x+0.4x-0.4%+3%+5%-4%+40%-19%+15%+4%+3%+4%+2%-1%+10%+4%Globaldemand2028EPathtorebalanceRebalance0~1yeartocapextippingpoint2~3yearstocapextippingpointCyclicalorstructuraloversupplyOverview-China'sglobalsupplyposition,changesindomesticdemandandexports12%12%20%49%49%27%27%30%41%41%30%30%50%5%5%5%16%5%16%6%6%6%7%7%10%21%21%18%18%18%25%19%19%16%6%9%6%9%17%17%21%Levelsofexcesscapacity,capacityutilizationLevelsofexcesscapacity,capacityutilizationratesLevelofexcesscapacityCNLevelofexcesscapacityCNcapacityas%ofglobaldemand197%2023A119%2023A119%26-28E138%153%91%26-28E116%2023A94%35%2023A83%26-28E66%63%2023A26-28E109%86%26-28E26-28E2023A26-28E2023A87%81%74%Capacityutilizationrates2026-28Ebasedonextrapolatedcapexrevisiontrend79%87%81%74%Capacityutilizationrates2026-28Ebasedonextrapolatedcapexrevisiontrend79%69%41%62%62%65%61%54%46%44%30%30%2023A26-28E2023A26-28E2023A26-28E2023A26-28E2023A26-28E2023A26-28E2023A26-28E2023A26-28E2023A26-28E2023A26-28EexportstoUS/EUvs.capacity8%8%10%6%12%9%4%5%7%4%2%2%3%4%CyclicalCyclicalinflections-RuleofThreeandtippingpointframeworksNotbottomingBottomingBottomingNotbottomingNotbottomingNotbottomingConclusions51%26%74%%81%22%78%50%6%21%73%NotbottomingBottomingBottomingNotbottomingNotbottomingNotbottomingConclusions51%26%74%%81%22%78%50%6%21%73%Rule1-cash%ofindustryat(1Q24A)marginnegativeOCF/salesRule2-Capexrevision6%-12%19%-5%-16%-41%-28%35%-7%-7%130%153%0%-15%Rule3-positivedemandStablerevisionon2024Erevisionon2025EPotentialforconsolidationandPotentialforconsolidationandnormalizedreturnsHighpotential(HHI=2900)LowHighpotential(HHI=2900)Lowpotential(HHI=330)Midpotential(HHI=1250)Lowpotential(HHI=300)Midpotential(HHI=2000)Midpotential(HHI=1500)ConclusionsHighpotential(HHI=2200)SupplystructureNumbersofproducers(outerring)andmarketshares(innerring)SupplystructureNumbersofproducers(outerring)andmarketshares(innerring)SteepFlatSteepSteepSteepFlatSteepSteepnessofcostcurve(1-OCF/Sales)cashlosscashprofitHighLowHighMidMidLowMidEntrybarriersROIC/Riskadjratio27%4.3x6%0.9x12%1.3x6%0.5x18%5.4x4%1.2x16%1.1x92%0%102%96%92%97%90%895%90%88%78%77%72%72%%9998%93%GovernmentsupportandsharehoGovernmentsupportandshareholdingsSOEsharesSOEshares(left)Subsidy/OCF(23A)(right)43%2%44%7%28%7%30%9%10%10%15%7%在全球貿(mào)易緊張局勢(shì)加劇和其他地緣政治問(wèn)題層出的背景下，中國(guó)關(guān)注可能帶來(lái)周期性轉(zhuǎn)折的前瞻性因素。我們認(rèn)為，周期的方向轉(zhuǎn)現(xiàn)金利潤(rùn)率驅(qū)動(dòng)資本支出周我們的結(jié)論是，面對(duì)欠佳的盈利能力和歐美市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入限制方面期，并可能帶來(lái)供需再平衡在作出應(yīng)對(duì)，未雨綢繆地調(diào)整未來(lái)新增產(chǎn)能的步伐，這與市現(xiàn)在到2028年，供需將趨于再平衡，利潤(rùn)將得到修復(fù)），中國(guó)供應(yīng)在海外市場(chǎng)的份額因此，對(duì)大多數(shù)行業(yè)而言，中國(guó)供將下降或增速放緩幅放緩或者下降，其中幾個(gè)新能源相關(guān)行業(yè)將出現(xiàn)明顯的轉(zhuǎn)折。具體而言，我們預(yù)計(jì)樣本行業(yè)中的中國(guó)供應(yīng)（包括中國(guó)出口和中國(guó)生產(chǎn)商開(kāi)發(fā)的海外產(chǎn)能的潛長(zhǎng)前景大幅放緩，但在更低產(chǎn)量和更高價(jià)格之間的平衡可能哪些行業(yè)可能率先實(shí)現(xiàn)再平從行業(yè)層面來(lái)看，我們預(yù)計(jì)光伏組件和鋰電池行業(yè)將面臨積極的周期性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（供需格局改衡？善而新能源車(chē)和功率半能）。我們預(yù)計(jì)鋼鐵和工程機(jī)械行業(yè)將繼續(xù)處于結(jié)構(gòu)性供過(guò)于求的狀態(tài)，持平衡。盡管存在非市場(chǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)因素，我們預(yù)計(jì)光伏組件和鋰電行業(yè)已經(jīng)快我們的研究有何獨(dú)特角度？我們的研究有何不同：我們認(rèn)為，包括現(xiàn)金利潤(rùn)率和資本是中國(guó)行業(yè)周期的主導(dǎo)驅(qū)動(dòng)力。我們根據(jù)行業(yè)資本支出計(jì)劃我們選擇了七個(gè)樣本行業(yè)進(jìn)行分析，因?yàn)樗鼈兇砹酥袊?guó)制造業(yè)在過(guò)去或現(xiàn)在都存在超額產(chǎn)能，并且是中國(guó)供應(yīng)在全球市場(chǎng)上日益增長(zhǎng)GrowingdemandPositivecyclicalriskofrestoringSGrowingdemandPositivecyclicalriskofrestoringS/DbalancecapacityPowersemis(IGBT)SolarmodulesLithiumbatteriesElectricvehiclesmodulesLithiumbatteriesNegativecapexrevision,Positivecapexrevisions,Negativecapexrevision,acceleratingcapacityadditionairacceleratingcapacityadditionairconditionerscapacityadditionSteelConstructionmachinerySteelUnlikelyscenarioNegative-structualUnlikelyscenarioContractingdemandContractingdemand這些行業(yè)存在產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩嗎？我們基于一系列指標(biāo)得出的結(jié)論為，存不斷變化的基本面正在從積極和不利的兩方面重塑在產(chǎn)能情景（相較高盛基本情景的一種簡(jiǎn)化情景），我們預(yù)計(jì)光伏組我們估計(jì)，臨界點(diǎn)（即，資本支出調(diào)整不可避免的時(shí)點(diǎn)）將出過(guò)去幾十年來(lái)，中國(guó)需求增長(zhǎng)的獨(dú)特路徑是導(dǎo)致不同行業(yè)出現(xiàn)超額產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模十分困難，尤其是在周期初期。加之供應(yīng)面反應(yīng)迅政府對(duì)供需兩方面的支持或有較大影響，并可能加劇產(chǎn)能和需求之間的不在周期性因素之外，我們通過(guò)對(duì)行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)結(jié)構(gòu)和成本曲線(xiàn)的評(píng)估顯示Jan-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-242Q193Q194Q192Q203Q204Q202Q213Q214Q212Q223Q224Q222Q233Q234Q23圖表3:七個(gè)樣本行業(yè)對(duì)中國(guó)GDP和出與當(dāng)前的產(chǎn)能利用率(%)比較：當(dāng)前情況7.8%6.6%ContributiontoChinaGDPandexportbysector(%)7.8%6.6%ElectricvehiclesSolarmodulesLithiumElectricvehiclesSolarmodulesLithiumbatteriesPowersemis(IGBT)40%21.9%20.5%20%Constructionmachinery20%SteelOthers2023AGDP2023A2023AGDP2023Aexports2023AGDPgrowthPowersemis(IGBT)(2023A) Steel(2012-15A)Airconditioners(2015-16A) Solarmodules(2023A)LithiumPowersemis(IGBT)(2023A) Steel(2012-15A)Airconditioners(2015-16A) Solarmodules(2023A)Lithiumbatteries(2020A)Electricvehicles(2020A)Constructionmachinery(2014-16A)87%71%58%44%41%25%0%20%40%60%80%100%Pastdowncycleso2024E）：EBIDTA利潤(rùn)率普遍下降；疊加產(chǎn)品降價(jià)，意味著利潤(rùn)進(jìn)Normalizedpricing(Jan23=100%) Solar Solarmodules vehicles batteries Powersemis(IGBT) Constructionmachinery Airconditioners40%40%QuarterlyEBITDAmargin(%) Solar40% Solarmodules vehicles20% batteries20% Powersemis(IGBT) Constructionmachinery Airconditioners-10% Steel-10%資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得,CEIC,公司數(shù)據(jù),高盛全球投資研究部中國(guó)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的程度時(shí)，往往需要從國(guó)內(nèi)需求、全球需求、出口增量那么中國(guó)是否存在超額產(chǎn)能呢？從多項(xiàng)指標(biāo)來(lái)看，答案是肯定的。程度高于其他行業(yè)。分析產(chǎn)能與需求是否平衡的最佳指標(biāo)是行業(yè)產(chǎn)能利用HighlevelofexcesscapacityChinaChinacapacityas%globaldemand(%)Solarmodules-23ALithiumLithiumbatteries-23ASolarmodules-28EExcessversusglobaldemandElectricElectricvehicles-23AAirconditioners-23AAirconditioners-28EConstructionConstructionmachinery-23AExcessversusChinademandConstructionmachinery-28EConstructionmachinery-28Etricvehicles-28ESteel-23ALithiumLithiumbatteries-28EPowersemisPowersemis(IGBT)-28ESteel-28EPowersemis(IGBT)-23A0%50%100%15Chinacapacityas%domesticdemand(%)（按出口量計(jì)）。在這一期間，中國(guó)出口（包括直接出口和以產(chǎn)成品形式的個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，光伏組件的市場(chǎng)份額上升了5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，功率半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)品(IGBT)的市場(chǎng)份額上），降通常通過(guò)加大出口和價(jià)格壓力而產(chǎn)生溢出影在某些地區(qū)可能會(huì)變得更加敏感，如果這些出口影響到對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)厣a(chǎn)企業(yè)有戰(zhàn)略意義的行業(yè)：我們看到全球貿(mào)易緊張局勢(shì)正在升溫，近期針對(duì)中關(guān)稅調(diào)整和貿(mào)易調(diào)查就是明證。不過(guò)，中國(guó)空調(diào)行業(yè)卻是一個(gè)反例：并未在全球貿(mào)易中面臨同等程度的阻力，我們認(rèn)為其原因是中國(guó)空調(diào)品MMarketshareofChineseexportsinex-China(%)Mmktshr-2020AChgsinmktshr-2020A~23A60%40%20%Domestic60%40%20%Domesticsubstitution2020A~23ASolarmodulesbatteriesconditionersvehiclesConstructionmachinerySolarmodulesbatteriesconditionersvehiclesConstructionmachinerySteelPowersemis(IGBT)AirAirChangesinChina'sdomesticdemandandexports2020-2023A(%)800%600%400%200%-200%SolarmodulesvehiclesbatteriesPowersemis(IGBT)ConstructionmachineryAirconditionersSolarmodulesvehiclesbatteriesPowersemis(IGBT)ConstructionmachineryAirconditionersSteel717%573%669%597%aDomesticdemand717%573%669%597%338%265%202%68%-11%-69%Chineseexportbreakdownbyregions-2023A(%)40%20%SolarmodulesvehiclesbatteriesPowersemis(IGBT)ConstructionbatteriesPowersemis(IGBT)ConstructionmachineryAirconditionersSteelSectorYearExportlimitations/tariffsonChineseimportsSolarmodules2024Section301:10%tariffimposedbytheUSonasuiteofPVproductsin2018,revisedupto25%in2019and50%in2024.Electricvehicles20242024InMay24,theUSannouncedanincreasetariffsonEVsimportedfromChinato100%(from25%),effectiveAug24.InJun24,theEUannouncedanincreasetariffsonbatteryEVsimportedfromChina(to27.4%-48.1%from10%)provisionallyinJul24;afinaldecisionwillbemadeinNov24).Lithiumbatteries2024InMay24theUSannouncedanincreaseintariffsonimportsofbatteriesandbattery-relatedproductsfromChina(to25%from0-7.5%)in2024-26.Powersemis(IGBT)2024In2024,theUSannouncedanincreaseintariffsonsemiconductorsto50%from25%by2025.Constructionmachinery2018-19TheUSraisedtariffsonconstructionmachinery(excavators,concretepumps,loadersandroadmachinery)to25%from10%.Airconditioners2018In2018,theUSincreasedtariffsonsplitairconditionersimportedfromChinato25%from2%.Steel2024In2024theUSincreasedtariffsonsteelproductsimportedfromChinato25%from0-7.5%.Vietnamisalsodiscussingtariffhikes.分析）重點(diǎn)關(guān)注行業(yè)擴(kuò)產(chǎn)趨勢(shì)，并根據(jù)盈利能力、資本支出計(jì)劃調(diào)金流和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債能力指標(biāo)來(lái)衡量產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張的資本開(kāi)支轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，從而airconditionersairconditionerssolarmodulessolarmoduleslithiumbatterieslithiumbatterieselectricvehicleselectricvehiclespowerpowersemis(IGBT)steelsteelconstructionmachineryconstructionmachineryCyclicalCyclicalinflections-RuleofThreeandtippingpointframeworksConclusionsStableStableBottomingBottomingBottomingBottomingNotNotbottomingNotNotbottomingNotNotbottomingNotNotbottomingRule1-cashmargin%ofindustryatnegativeOCF/sales%21%21222226%%%%73%50%51%78%81%35%%-15%%-41%-28%(1Q24A)%%%%73%50%51%78%81%35%%-15%%-41%-28%74%0%revisionon2024Erevisionon2025ERule3-positivedemand17%1%17%1%0%0%33%3-8%5%%22-4%-3%35%49%43%-4%-3%35%49%43%-4%Timetoreachtippingpointnocapexexpansion0-1year1year3years1-2yearsnocapexexpansionnocapexexpansion1.行業(yè)內(nèi)大多數(shù)公司的EBITDA是否處于或接近盈虧平衡點(diǎn)？原則一提出的問(wèn)題是，行業(yè)內(nèi)大多3.是否存在一線(xiàn)回升希望？行業(yè)可能在周期底部停留一段時(shí)間。原則三幫助我評(píng)估周期性修正的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）。該分析重點(diǎn)關(guān)注行業(yè)盈利能力、原則一：行業(yè)內(nèi)大多數(shù)公司的EBITDA是否處于或接近40%20%OCF/sales(1Q24A)-%supplyinnegative/zero/positive40%20%SolarmodulesSteelvehiclesPowersemis(IGBT)SolarmodulesSteelvehiclesPowersemis(IGBT)batteriesConstructionmachineryAirconditionersNegativeZeroNegativeZeroOCF/sales(2023A)-%supplyinnegative/zero/vehiclesvehiclesAir市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下供應(yīng)響應(yīng)變化的指標(biāo)。資本支出趨勢(shì)的二階導(dǎo)反IndustryCapextrendIndustryCapextrendRevisionsoverthepast~12monthsCapexYoYCapex/sales2024E2025E2024E2025E2024E*Powersemis(IGBT)130%153%51%9%68%Steel19%0%0%0%5%Constructionmachinery6%-12%-7%-7%4%Airconditioners-7%-7%4%5%3%Electricvehicles35%-15%-39%-32%13%Solarmodules-5%-16%-20%-40%7%Lithiumbatteries*postrevision,weightedavg-41%-28%ofsamples-22%-4%13%Capexrevisionoverthepast~12months(%)-50%Powersemis(IGBT)SteelConstructionmachineryAirconditionersPowersemis(IGBT)SteelConstructionmachineryAirconditionersvehiclesSolarmodulesbatteries2024E2025E資料來(lái)源：彭博,公司數(shù)據(jù),高盛全球）？項(xiàng)評(píng)估。今年以來(lái)，鋰電池、新能源汽車(chē)、光伏裝機(jī)和功率半導(dǎo)體(IGBT)需求增長(zhǎng)我們認(rèn)識(shí)到，潛在的非市場(chǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)因素可能導(dǎo)致周期持續(xù)時(shí)間超還），甚至有時(shí)是現(xiàn)金補(bǔ)貼。盡管傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)的國(guó)企持股往往較高，但SolarmodulesElectricvehiclesLithiumbatteriesPowersemisIGBTConstructionmachineryAirconditionersSteelSolarmodulesElectricvehiclesLithiumbatteriesPowersemisSolarmodulesElectricvehiclesLithiumbatteriesPowersemisIGBTConstructionmachineryAirconditionersSteelSolarmodulesElectricvehiclesLithiumbatteriesPowersemisIGBTConstructionmachineryAirconditionersSteelSolarmodulesElectricvehiclesLithiumbatteriesPowersemisIGBTConstructionmachineryAirconditionersSteelPotentialsupportingfactorsfortheindustries%ofsupplyinSOE49%50%40%30%20%10%0%ReportedgovernmentsubsidyversusOCF-2023A%ofsupplywithlargeMNCshareholders44%43%25%20%30%28%2%5%7%8%9%0%5%7%0%7%然而，無(wú)論持股或補(bǔ)貼情況如何，對(duì)資本投資的支持都存在諸利能力和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表都無(wú)法繼續(xù)支撐擴(kuò)張所需的資本時(shí)，迎來(lái)（資本資本支出臨界點(diǎn)的可能時(shí)點(diǎn)。我們將資本支債（即沒(méi)有更多現(xiàn)金可供消耗EBITDA險(xiǎn)較高）。在此基礎(chǔ)上，我們認(rèn)為光伏組件和鋰電池將很快迎來(lái)臨界SectorsSectors2023A2023A2024E2024E2025E2025E2026E2026E2027E2027E2028E2028ESolarmodules-62%,netcash97%,0x57%,2xGroup1=Solarmodules-62%,netcash97%,0x57%,2xGroup1=34%-42%,netcash-5%,netcash19%,-EBITDA-51%,netcash-16%,netcash-51%,netcash-42%,netcash13%,10x-equity,-EBITDA-45%,netcash5%,9x-290%,-EBITDA Group1=73%-67%,netcash-70%,netcash Group2=21%59%,5x117%,0x Group3=6%-81%,netcash-47%,netcashyear)LithiumbatteriesTippingpoint(1-67%,netcash211%,0x24%,-EBITDA-69%,netcash431%,-EBITDA133%,-EBITDA -72%,netcash 299%,0x 45%,-EBITDA-38%,netcash-36%,netcash21%,10x27%,10x-equity,-EBITDA-equity,-EBITDA -60%,netcashGroup2=14%67%,12xGroup3=52%*57%,2x -71%,netcash-75%,netcash-42%,netcash-48%,netcash 680%,0x1847%,0xn.a. -60%,netcashGroup2=14%67%,12xGroup3=52%*57%,2xElectricvehiclesGroup1ElectricvehiclesGroup1=50%Group2=28%Group3=22%-70%,-70%,netcash680%,-EBITDA586%,-EBITDAPowersemisPowersemis(IGBT)Group1=51%-92%,netcashGroup2=39%-13%,netcashGroup3=11%1%,5.2x-54%,netcash-3%,net-54%,netcash-3%,netcash7%,-EBITDAyears) 155%,-EBITDA 163%,-EBITDA n.a.years) 155%,-EBITDA 163%,-EBITDA n.a.37%,-EBITDA63%,-EBITDA255%,-255%,-EBITDA263%,-EBITDAn.a.19%,5x35%,0x-22%,netcashGroup119%,5x35%,0x-22%,netcashGroup1=26% Group2=34%* Group3=40%17%,17%,16x35%,9x-27%,netcashnoCapexexpansionAirconditionersGroup1=60%Group2=21%noCapexexpansionAirconditionersGroup1=60%Group2=21%Group3=19%-31%,netcash-28%,netcash-25%,netcashSteelGroup1SteelGroup1=22%Group2=22%Group3=56%8%,41x15%,-EBITDA74%,8%,41x15%,-EBITDA74%,5x7%,-EBITDA66%,3x25%,25%,5x35%,0x-24%,netcash29%,29%,6x35%,-EBITDA-17%,netcash28%,28%,27x35%,0xn.a.n.a.n.a.35%,0xn.a.-32%,-32%,netcash-33%,netcash-35%,netcash-33%,-33%,netcash-37%,netcash-44%,netcashn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3%,3%,60x19%,-EBITDA76%,5x-1%,-1%,netcash24%,-EBITDA78%,2x-4%,-4%,netcash28%,0x79%,5x-6%,-6%,netcash34%,0x81%,11xHowtoreadthischartScenarioanalysis-assumingaverageproducers(group2)atzerocashmargins.*notcovered,basedon2023AfinancialHowtoreadthischartTippingpointsforCapex:when>50%ofsupplyisTippingpointsforCapex:when>50%ofsupplyisinnetdebt,EBITDAinterestcoverageis<5andthegearingratioisrapidlychanging,thushastosuspendorcutcapitalforexpansionlightgreycolorrepresentsnetdebtposition,withabilitytoservicedebt(EBITDAinterestcoverage>5x)darkgreycolorrepresentsnetdebtposition,withriskinservicingdebt(EBITDAinterestcoverage<5x)60%,4x60%innetgearingratio60%,4x4xinEBITDAinterestcoverage另一種新的趨勢(shì)也在明顯形成：中國(guó)生產(chǎn)商正在中國(guó)以張局勢(shì)加劇之際緩解市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō)，此類(lèi)中國(guó)投資受到的視角下可能在一定程度上拖累供應(yīng)前景的潛在改善。然而從目前增幅度比我們目前看到的中國(guó)本土產(chǎn)能減速幅度要小得多。因此，業(yè)而言，中國(guó)有效供應(yīng)（包括中國(guó)出口和來(lái)自中國(guó)以外ImpactImpactofChinasupplyonex-China(2023-2028E)vs2028EglobaldemandULesscapacitybuiltbasedoncapexrevisiontrend,vsthecourseatsameutilizationas23AMorecapacitybuiltinex-ChinabyChineseproducers-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%ElectricvehiclesSolarmodulesConstructionmachineryAirconditionersSteelPowersemis(IGBT)%3.0%3.0%l2.7%45%-1%43%0.3% -20%GrowthofChineseexportandsupplyproducedinex-ChinaGrowthofChineseexportandsupplyproducedinex-ChinanHigherexportsaMoreoutputfr-AirconditionersNetChinasupplyimpact(2023-2028E)byregionsvs2028Eglobaldemand-Net=lesscapacitybuiltinChina+Chine-Blueandredshadedrepresentsweightofinglobal %%%%%AirconditionersEx-ChinacapacityplanindicatedbyEx-ChinacapacityplanindicatedbyChineseproducersL:AggregatedcapacityR:vs2028ECNcapacityProjectlocations.Powersemis(IGBT)50kwafers0%20%ConstmachineryAirconditionersElectricvehicles2.5mnunits8%Lithiumbatteries260GWh10%Solarmodules40GW3% Steel%%%總體而言，我們認(rèn)為光伏組件和鋰電池行業(yè)的存在積極率改善），而新能源汽車(chē)和功率半導(dǎo)體(IGBT)行業(yè)則存在負(fù)面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（供需平衡和產(chǎn)能利用件、新能源汽車(chē)和鋰電池趨勢(shì)日益改善，但功Excesscapacity-currentandoutlook(incapacityutilizationrate%)2019-23Aavg2024E2026-28E2026-28E(ifnoexportstoUS/EU)---------->SolarmodulesElectricvehiclesLithiumbatteries Powersemis Construction ---------->SolarmodulesElectricvehiclesLithiumbatteries Powersemis Construction machineryAirconditionersSteel≤------Chinadomesticdemandandcapacitygrowth2023-2028ECAGR(%)30%25%20%15%10% 5% 0%-5%SolarmodulesvehiclesbatteriesPowersemis(IGBT)ConstructionmachineryAirconditionersSteelSolarmodulesvehiclesbatteriesPowersemis(IGBT)ConstructionmachineryAirconditionersSteelaDomesticdemandCAGRCapacityCapacityCAGR(extrapolatedfromcapexrevisiontrend)-2%過(guò)去二十年，中國(guó)不同行業(yè)出現(xiàn)過(guò)數(shù)次超額產(chǎn)能的情況，涉及行業(yè)從3.政府政策（包括需求和供應(yīng)兩方面）可能加速周期來(lái)，鋰電池和新能源汽車(chē)行業(yè)也出現(xiàn)了類(lèi)似的快速擴(kuò)張。基于我們十年來(lái)，中國(guó)的需求增長(zhǎng)路徑與成熟需求通常展現(xiàn)出的周期性變化截然不同新的需求板塊從零發(fā)展到成熟，比如住房和基建，或仍在向成熟發(fā)展有很多。我們估測(cè)，新建一家光伏組件工廠(chǎng)僅需6個(gè)月市場(chǎng)規(guī)模和需求增速的不確定性，加上供應(yīng)的大規(guī)模響應(yīng)，增長(zhǎng)放緩，產(chǎn)能投資調(diào)整將很快跟進(jìn)。比如，盡管利潤(rùn)率和回報(bào)仍