TED英語演講：愛情的三大秘訣

Word文檔TED英語演講：愛情的三大秘訣TED是Technology,Entertainment,Design(科技、消遣、設(shè)計(jì))的縮寫，這個(gè)會(huì)議的宗旨是用思想的力氣來轉(zhuǎn)變世界。TED演講的特點(diǎn)是毫無繁雜冗長(zhǎng)的專業(yè)講座，觀點(diǎn)洪亮，開門見山，種類繁多，看法新奇。而且還是特別好的英語口語聽力練習(xí)材料，建議堅(jiān)持學(xué)習(xí)。下面是我為大家收集關(guān)于TED英語演講：愛情的三大秘訣，歡迎借鑒參考。

演講者：HannahFry

演講稿

TodayIwanttotalktoyouaboutthemathematicsoflove.Now,Ithinkthatwecanallagreethatmathematiciansarefamouslyexcellentatfindinglove.Butitsnotjustbecauseofourdashingpersonalities,superiorconversationalskillsandexcellentpencilcases.Itsalsobecauseweveactuallydoneanawfullotofworkintothemathsofhowtofindtheperfectpartner.

今日我想要和大家談?wù)勱P(guān)于愛情的數(shù)學(xué)。我想大家都同意數(shù)學(xué)家在查找真愛上特殊在行。但那并不是是由于我們精力充足的性格，超凡的對(duì)話技巧，和極好的筆盒。也是由于我們真的花了很多時(shí)間精力在數(shù)學(xué)上，計(jì)算如何找到完善的伴侶。

Now,inmyfavoritepaperonthesubject,whichisentitled,WhyIDontHaveaGirlfriend--PeterBackustriestoratehischancesoffindinglove.Now,Petersnotaverygreedyman.OfalloftheavailablewomenintheUK,allPeterslookingforissomebodywholivesnearhim,somebodyintherightagerange,somebodywithauniversitydegree,somebodyheslikelytogetonwellwith,somebodywhoslikelytobeattractive,somebodywhoslikelytofindhimattractive.Andcomesupwithanestimateof26womeninthewholeoftheUK.Itsnotlookingverygood,isitPeter?Now,justtoputthatintoperspective,thatsabout400timesfewerthanthebestestimatesofhowmanyintelligentextraterrestriallifeformsthereare.AnditalsogivesPetera1in285,000chanceofbumpingintoanyoneofthesespecialladiesonagivennightout.Idliketothinkthatswhymathematiciansdontreallybothergoingonnightsoutanymore.

現(xiàn)在，在此學(xué)科中我最愛的論文，名為“為什么我沒有女友”(笑聲)PeterBackus試著計(jì)算他尋得真愛的機(jī)會(huì)?，F(xiàn)在，Peter不是一個(gè)特別貪心的人。在英國(guó)全部相宜的女性對(duì)象中，彼得所看的，就只是那個(gè)住在他四周的對(duì)象，某個(gè)處于相宜的年齡階段，某個(gè)擁有高校文憑，某個(gè)他很有可能相處地不錯(cuò)的對(duì)象，某個(gè)有魅力的女子，以及某個(gè)認(rèn)為他也富有魅力的對(duì)象。(笑聲)結(jié)果他估量在全英國(guó)也許有26位此類女性。這看來很不妙，不是嗎，彼得?我們好好思索一下這件事，在很多聰慧外星生命形式存在的狀況下，那是少于400倍數(shù)的估量呀。那也給了彼得一個(gè)在某晚遇見一個(gè)特殊的女子28萬5千之1的機(jī)會(huì)。我寧愿想就是著那為什么數(shù)學(xué)家不再怎么想晚上出去約會(huì)了。

ThethingisthatIpersonallydontsubscribetosuchapessimisticview.BecauseIknow,justaswellasallofyoudo,thatlovedoesntreallyworklikethat.Humanemotionisntneatlyorderedandrationalandeasilypredictable.ButIalsoknowthatthatdoesntmeanthatmathematicshasntgotsomethingthatitcanofferus,because,love,aswithmostoflife,isfullofpatternsandmathematicsis,ultimately,allaboutthestudyofpatterns.Patternsfrompredictingtheweathertothefluctuationsinthestockmarket,tothemovementoftheplanetsorthegrowthofcities.Andifwerebeinghonest,noneofthosethingsareexactlyneatlyorderedandeasilypredictable,either.BecauseIbelievethatmathematicsissopowerfulthatithasthepotentialtoofferusanewwayoflookingatalmostanything.Evensomethingasmysteriousaslove.Andso,totrytopersuadeyouofhowtotallyamazing,excellentandrelevantmathematicsis,Iwanttogiveyoumytopthreemathematicallyverifiabletipsforlove.

重點(diǎn)是，我個(gè)人其實(shí)并不同意這種悲觀的看法。由于我知道，猶如你們?nèi)克赖?，愛情并不是這樣發(fā)生的。人類的情感不是那樣地秩序井然，潔凈利落，規(guī)律清楚，以及簡(jiǎn)單猜測(cè)。但我也知道那并不意謂著數(shù)學(xué)無法供應(yīng)關(guān)心，由于愛情，猶如生命中多數(shù)的事物一般，充斥著很多規(guī)律，而數(shù)學(xué)，最終，就是那講求規(guī)律的學(xué)說。從猜測(cè)天候，到猜測(cè)股票市場(chǎng)的開高走低，到星球的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，或都市的進(jìn)展。假如我們對(duì)自己誠(chéng)懇的話，上述那些東西，沒有一個(gè)是井然有序以及簡(jiǎn)單猜測(cè)的。由于我信任，數(shù)學(xué)的力氣特別強(qiáng)大，以至于它讓我們得以以新方法重新看待任何事物。就算是和愛情一般神奇的東西也是。為了試著勸說你們數(shù)學(xué)的神妙用處，我想要給大家三個(gè)最重要的在數(shù)學(xué)上可以驗(yàn)證的愛情秘訣。

OK,soTopTip#1:Howtowinatonlinedating.SomyfavoriteonlinedatingwebsiteisOkCupid,notleastbecauseitwasstartedbyagroupofmathematicians.Now,becausetheyremathematicians,theyhavebeencollectingdataoneverybodywhousestheirsiteforalmostadecade.Andtheyvebeentryingtosearchforpatternsinthewaythatwetalkaboutourselvesandthewaythatweinteractwitheachotheronanonlinedatingwebsite.Andtheyvecomeupwithsomeseriouslyinterestingfindings.Butmyparticularfavoriteisthatitturnsoutthatonanonlinedatingwebsite,howattractiveyouaredoesnotdictatehowpopularyouare,andactually,havingpeoplethinkthatyoureuglycanworktoyouradvantage.Letmeshowyouhowthisworks.InathankfullyvoluntarysectionofOkCupid,youareallowedtoratehowattractiveyouthinkpeopleareonascalebetweenoneandfive.Now,ifwecomparethisscore,theaveragescore,tohowmanymessagesaselectionofpeoplereceive,youcanbegintogetasenseofhowattractivenesslinkstopopularityonanonlinedatingwebsite.

好，首先最重要的秘技一：如何贏得線上交友的機(jī)會(huì)。我最愛的線上交友網(wǎng)站是OkCupid(網(wǎng)站名：好吧，丘比特)，這并不僅僅由于這網(wǎng)站是由一群數(shù)學(xué)家所架設(shè)的。由于他們是數(shù)學(xué)家，他們已經(jīng)搜集了近乎這十年來全部他們網(wǎng)站使用者的資料。他們?cè)囍娮余]件查找我們用英語上談?wù)摃r(shí)間和自己的方式的模式，以及我們和他人互動(dòng)的模式。他們發(fā)覺了一些重要的好玩結(jié)果。但我特殊喜愛的結(jié)果之一是在線上交友網(wǎng)站上你的魅力程度并無法猜測(cè)你的受歡迎程度，事實(shí)上，讓人們覺得你很丑可以讓你擁有優(yōu)勢(shì)。讓我向各位展現(xiàn)這是怎么一回事。在OkCupid的一個(gè)愿愿欄目中，你可以評(píng)價(jià)人們的魅力值，從1到5。現(xiàn)在，假如我們比較這個(gè)分?jǐn)?shù)，平均分?jǐn)?shù)，有多少人收到信息，你就可以開頭理解在一個(gè)線上約會(huì)網(wǎng)站上魅力指數(shù)與受歡迎程度有關(guān)。

ThisisthegraphtheOkCupidguyshavecomeupwith.Andtheimportantthingtonoticeisthatitsnottotallytruethatthemoreattractiveyouare,themoremessagesyouget.Butthequestionarisesthenofwhatisitaboutpeopleupherewhoaresomuchmorepopularthanpeopledownhere,eventhoughtheyhavethesamescoreofattractiveness?Andthereasonwhyisthatitsnotjuststraightforwardlooksthatareimportant.Soletmetrytoillustratetheirfindingswithanexample.SoifyoutakesomeonelikePortiadeRossi,forexample,everybodyagreesthatPortiadeRossiisaverybeautifulwoman.Nobodythinksthatshesugly,butshesnotasupermodel,either.IfyoucomparePortiadeRossitosomeonelikeSarahJessicaParker,now,alotofpeople,myselfincluded,Ishouldsay,thinkthatSarahJessicaParkerisseriouslyfabulousandpossiblyoneofthemostbeautifulcreaturestohaveeverhavewalkedonthefaceoftheEarth.Butsomeotherpeople,i.e.,mostoftheInternet...seemtothinkthatshelooksabitlikeahorse.Now,IthinkthatifyouaskpeoplehowattractivetheythoughtJessicaParkerorPortiadeRossiwere,andyouaskthemtogivethemascorebetweenoneandfiveIreckonthattheydaverageouttohaveroughlythesamescore.Butthewaythatpeoplewouldvotewouldbeverydifferent.SoPortiasscoreswouldallbeclusteredaroundthefourbecauseeverybodyagreesthatshesverybeautiful,whereasSarahJessicaParkercompletelydividesopinion.Theredbeahugespreadinherscores.Andactuallyitsthisspreadthatcounts.ItsthisspreadthatmakesyoumorepopularonanonlineInternetdatingwebsite.Sowhatthatmeansthenisthatifsomepeoplethinkthatyoureattractive,youreactuallybetteroffhavingsomeotherpeoplethinkthatyoureamassiveminger.Thatsmuchbetterthaneverybodyjustthinkingthatyourethecutegirlnextdoor.

這是OkCupid得到的圖表。一件重要的值得留意的事是并不是越有魅力的人，收到的信息越多。問題是，為什么上面的這些人比下面這些人要受歡迎得多，即便他們都有相同的魅力值?緣由是，并不是直觀的外貌是重要的。讓我來談?wù)勊麄兊陌l(fā)覺，以一個(gè)案例說明。假如你拿PortiadeRossi為例，每個(gè)人都同意PortiadeRossi是個(gè)特別漂亮的女人，沒有人覺得她丑，但她也不是超模。假如你拿某個(gè)人，比如莎拉杰西卡帕克(譯者注：欲望都市女主角)狀語從句：來她比較很多人，包括我自己，我應(yīng)當(dāng)會(huì)說，SarahJessicaParker魅力極為出眾，有可能是地表上最漂亮的物種之一。但很多其他人，比如，大多數(shù)的網(wǎng)友好像都認(rèn)為她看起來像馬。(笑聲)假如你問人們他們覺得自己有多美，莎拉杰西卡帕克或波蒂亞德羅西你要他們給自己打分，從1到5，我猜他們也會(huì)大約。一個(gè)和大家都差不多的數(shù)字但是人們投票的方式各自不同。因此鮑西婭的分?jǐn)?shù)會(huì)聚集在4分左右，由于全部人都同意，她特別漂亮，然而人們對(duì)莎拉杰西卡帕克卻有截然不同的看法。她的分差懸殊很大。然而，事實(shí)上，就是那分差別具意義，那差異讓你在交友網(wǎng)站上受歡迎。所以那意味著假如有些人認(rèn)為你別具魅力，你最好有其他人認(rèn)為你很丑。那遠(yuǎn)優(yōu)于全部人認(rèn)為你的英文鄰家的女孩可愛。

Now,Ithinkthisbeginstomakeabitmoresensewhenyouthinkintermsofthepeoplewhoaresendingthesemessages.Soletssaythatyouthinksomebodysattractive,butyoususpectthatotherpeoplewontnecessarilybethatinterested.Thatmeansthereslesscompetitionforyouanditsanextraincentiveforyoutogetintouch.Whereascomparethattoifyouthinksomebodyisattractivebutyoususpectthateverybodyisgoingtothinktheyreattractive.Well,whywouldyoubotherhumiliatingyourself,letsbehonest?Buthereswherethereallyinterestingpartcomes.Becausewhenpeoplechoosethepicturesthattheyuseonanonlinedatingwebsite,theyoftentrytominimizethethingsthattheythinksomepeoplewillfindunattractive.Theclassicexampleispeoplewhoare,perhaps,alittlebitoverweightdeliberatelychoosingaverycroppedphoto,orbaldmen,forexample,deliberatelychoosingpictureswheretheyrewearinghats.Butactuallythisistheoppositeofwhatyoushoulddoifyouwanttobesuccessful.Youshouldreally,instead,playuptowhateveritisthatmakesyoudifferent,evenifyouthinkthatsomepeoplewillfinditunattractive.Becausethepeoplewhofancyyouarejustgoingtofancyyouanyway,andtheunimportantloserswhodont,well,theyonlyplayuptoyouradvantage.

當(dāng)你們開頭思索一下這些寄送信息的人的話，這開頭變得合理些了。這么說吧，假設(shè)你認(rèn)為那個(gè)人很美，但你同時(shí)猜想其他人并不會(huì)和你有同樣的審美觀。那就意味著，你的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手略少，這就給你增加了額外的動(dòng)機(jī)去與他/她熟悉。與之相對(duì)的狀況是你認(rèn)為某人很有吸引力，但你猜想全部其他的人都認(rèn)為那人很有吸引力，嗯，讓我們面對(duì)事實(shí)為什么要自取其辱呢呢?這就是最好玩的部分。由于當(dāng)人們?nèi)ミx擇他們?cè)诮挥丫W(wǎng)站上使用的照片時(shí)，他們總是試圖最小化其他人認(rèn)為不吸引人之處的可能性。最經(jīng)典的例子是，那些體重略重的人有意選擇一個(gè)剪裁特別不正的照片，例如那些禿頂?shù)哪惺?，有意去選擇他們帶著帽子的照片。但你的行為是與你的目標(biāo)相悖的，假如你想要在網(wǎng)上交友勝利。你真的應(yīng)當(dāng)，去選擇讓你看起來與眾不同的照片，即便你為某些人會(huì)對(duì)此失去愛好。由于那些喜愛你的人無論如何都會(huì)去喜愛你，而那些不重要的路人只是渲染你的優(yōu)勢(shì)。

OK,TopTip#2:Howtopicktheperfectpartner.Soletsimaginethenthatyourearoaringsuccessonthedatingscene.Butthequestionarisesofhowdoyouthenconvertthatsuccessintolonger-termhappiness,andinparticular,howdoyoudecidewhenistherighttimetosettledown?Nowgenerally,itsnotadvisabletojustcashinandmarrythefirstpersonwhocomesalongandshowsyouanyinterestatall.But,equally,youdontreallywanttoleaveittoolongifyouwanttomaximizeyourchanceoflong-termhappiness.Asmyfavoriteauthor,JaneAusten,putsit,Anunmarriedwomanofsevenandtwentycanneverhopetofeelorinspireaffectionagain.(Laughter)Thanksalot,Jane.Whatdoyouknowaboutlove?

好了，最高秘訣2號(hào)：如何選擇完善的伴侶。讓我們想象你的約會(huì)精彩勝利。但問題來了你如何將那勝利的約會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)變成長(zhǎng)期的歡樂，尤其是，你要如何選擇在哪個(gè)時(shí)刻安定下來?一般來說，并建議人們立即與第一個(gè)消失對(duì)你表達(dá)好感的人結(jié)婚。但是，一般來說，假如你想要最大化你將來數(shù)十年幸?；橐龅臋C(jī)會(huì)，你也不愿等待太久。我最喜愛的作家簡(jiǎn)奧斯汀這樣說，“一個(gè)未婚的27歲女子就別希望再能感受或激發(fā)愛情了。”(笑聲)這太嚴(yán)峻了，簡(jiǎn)。你對(duì)愛了解多少呢?

Sothequestionisthen,howdoyouknowwhenistherighttimetosettledown,givenallthepeoplethatyoucandateinyourlifetime?Thankfully,theresaratherdeliciousbitofmathematicsthatwecanusetohelpusouthere,calledoptimalstoppingtheory.Soletsimagine,then,thatyoustartdatingwhenyoure15andideally,youdliketobemarriedbythetimethatyoure35.Andtheresanumberofpeoplethatyoucouldpotentiallydateacrossyourlifetime,andtheyllbeatvaryinglevelsofgoodness.Nowtherulesarethatonceyoucashinandgetmarried,youcantlookaheadtoseewhatyoucouldhavehad,andequally,youcantgobackandchangeyourmind.Inmyexperienceatleast,Ifindthattypicallypeopledontmuchlikebeingrecalledyearsafterbeingpassedupforsomebodyelse,orthatsjustme.

那么問題來了，你怎么知道哪個(gè)時(shí)刻是該安定下來的時(shí)刻，究竟生命中你有許多可能的對(duì)象?幸好，我們可以運(yùn)用一點(diǎn)兒數(shù)學(xué)來關(guān)心我們計(jì)算解決這個(gè)問題，名叫“最優(yōu)停止理論“。那么讓我們來想象一下，你在15歲的時(shí)候開頭交往，抱負(fù)狀態(tài)下，你在35歲的時(shí)候會(huì)結(jié)婚。你的人生中有許多潛在的約會(huì)對(duì)象，他們都有各自的優(yōu)點(diǎn)。規(guī)章是，你一旦跳進(jìn)婚姻，你就不能連續(xù)前進(jìn)查找你可能可以有的對(duì)象，你也不能回頭來轉(zhuǎn)變你的辦法。我個(gè)人的閱歷看來，一般人們不盼望在被拒絕又過了多年后被找回來，或許只有我這樣想。

Sothemathsaysthenthatwhatyoushoulddointhefirst37percentofyourdatingwindow,youshouldjustrejecteverybodyasseriousmarriagepotential.Andthen,youshouldpickthenextpersonthatcomesalongthatisbetterthaneverybodythatyouveseenbefore.Soherestheexample.Nowifyoudothis,itcanbemathematicallyproven,infact,thatthisisthebestpossiblewayofmaximizingyourchancesoffindingtheperfectpartner.Nowunfortunately,Ihavetotellyouthatthismethoddoescomewithsomerisks.Forinstance,imagineifyourperfectpartnerappearedduringyourfirst37percent.Now,unfortunately,youdhavetorejectthem.Now,ifyourefollowingthemaths,Imafraidnooneelsecomesalongthatsbetterthananyoneyouveseenbefore,soyouhavetogoonrejectingeveryoneanddiealone.Probablysurroundedbycats...nibblingatyourremains.

告知數(shù)學(xué)我們你應(yīng)當(dāng)拒絕認(rèn)為會(huì)在狀語從句：你人生約會(huì)周期前37%時(shí)段消失的任何人有嚴(yán)厲?仔細(xì)的婚姻關(guān)系。接著，你要選擇下一個(gè)人，那個(gè)比你以前約會(huì)對(duì)象都好的人。這里舉幾例。假如你這么做，從數(shù)學(xué)證明來看可以認(rèn)為，事實(shí)上這可能是最好的選擇來最大化你找到完善伴侶的機(jī)會(huì)?，F(xiàn)在不幸的是，我必需告知你這個(gè)方法也是有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。比如，想象一下，你假設(shè)完善的伴侶消失在你約會(huì)歷程的前37%那就很不幸了，你會(huì)拒絕他們。假如你信任數(shù)學(xué)，唯恐你不會(huì)再找到比你以往見過更好的對(duì)象，你就會(huì)持續(xù)拒絕每個(gè)人然后孤獨(dú)終老?？赡軙?huì)被貓咪包圍一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)啃食你的遺骸。

OK,anotherriskis,letsimagine,instead,thatthefirstpeoplethatyoudatedinyourfirst37percentarejustincrediblydull,boring,terriblepeople.ThatsOK,becauseyoureinyourrejectionphase,sothatsfine,youcanrejectthem.Butthenimaginethenextpersontocomealongisjustmarginallylessboring,dullandterrible...thaneverybodythatyouveseenbefore.Now,ifyouarefollowingthemaths,Imafraidyouhavetomarrythem...andendupinarelationshipwhichis,frankly,suboptimal.Sorryaboutthat.ButIdothinkthattheresanopportunityhereforHallmarktocashinonandreallycaterforthismarket.AValentinesDaycardlikethis.Mydarlinghusband,youaremarginallylessterriblethanthefirst37percentofpeopleIdated.ItsactuallymoreromanticthanInormallymanage.

好，另一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是，讓我們想象，相反的，你約會(huì)歷程前37%里第一個(gè)對(duì)象極度愚蠢，無聊又很糟糕。沒事，由于你還在拒肯定象的階段，沒問題，你可以拒絕他們。但想象一下，下一個(gè)消失的人只是沒那么無聊，愚蠢比你以前的對(duì)象都略好那么一點(diǎn)兒。假如你遵循數(shù)學(xué)，唯恐你要和他們結(jié)婚然后沉醉在一段，實(shí)話說，次優(yōu)的關(guān)系中。很愧疚。但我認(rèn)為，機(jī)會(huì)還是有的賀曼公司迎風(fēng)市場(chǎng)需求出售這樣的情人節(jié)賀卡。(笑聲)“我友愛的丈夫，你沒有我約會(huì)歷程中前37%的男士那么糟糕“。這比一般的賀卡浪漫許多。

OK,sothismethoddoesntgiveyoua100percentsuccessrate,buttheresnootherpossiblestrategythatcandoanybetter.Andactually,inthewild,therearecertaintypesoffishwhichfollowandemploythisexactstrategy.Sotheyrejecteverypossiblesuitorthatturnsupinthefirst37percentofthematingseason,andthentheypickthenextfishthatcomesalongafterthatwindowthats,Idontknow,biggerandburlierthanallofthefishthattheyveseenbefore.Ialsothinkthatsubconsciously,humans,wedosortofdothisanyway.Wegiveourselvesalittlebitoftimetoplaythefield,getafeelforthemarketplaceorwhateverwhenwereyoung.Andthenweonlystartlookingseriouslyatpotentialmarriagecandidatesoncewehitourmid-to-late20s.Ithinkthisisconclusiveproof,ifeveritwereneeded,thateverybodysbrainsareprewiredtobejustalittlebitmathematical.

這個(gè)數(shù)學(xué)方法不能保證100%的勝利率，但也沒有更好的策略了。事實(shí)上，在動(dòng)物界，某個(gè)特定種類的魚遵循使用這樣的策略。在交配期，它們拒絕消失在前37%的每個(gè)求婚者，接著它們選擇37%后消失的下一個(gè)比所見過的魚體型更加浩大，更加牢固的魚。我想作為人類我們潛意識(shí)里也在做同樣的選擇。我們給自己更多時(shí)間查找，在我們年輕的時(shí)候感受婚戀市場(chǎng)。我們只有在20歲年齡段的中后期才會(huì)很真查找潛在的結(jié)婚對(duì)象。我想這證明白，即使不確定是否需要，每個(gè)人的大腦都預(yù)配了點(diǎn)兒數(shù)學(xué)力量。

OK,sothatwasTopTip#2.Now,TopTip#3:Howtoavoiddivorce.OK,soletsimaginethenthatyoupickedyourperfectpartnerandyouresettlingintoalifelongrelationshipwiththem.Now,Iliketothinkthateverybodywouldideallyliketoavoiddivorce,apartfrom,Idontknow,PiersMorganswife,maybe?ButitsasadfactofmodernlifethatoneintwomarriagesintheStatesendsindivorce,withtherestoftheworldnotbeingfarbehind.Now,youcanbeforgiven,perhapsforthinkingthattheargumentsthatprecedeamaritalbreakuparenotanidealcandidateformathematicalinvestigation.Foronething,itsveryhardtoknowwhatyoushouldbemeasuringorwhatyoushouldbequantifying.Butthisdidntstopapsychologist,JohnGottman,whodidexactlythat.Gottmanobservedhundredsofcoupleshavingaconversationandrecorded,well,everythingyoucanthinkof.Soherecordedwhatwassaidintheconversation,herecordedtheirskinconductivity,herecordedtheirfacialexpressions,theirheartrates,theirbloodpressure,basicallyeverythingapartfromwhetherornotthewifewasactuallyalwaysright,whichincidentallyshetotallyis.ButwhatGottmanandhisteamfoundwasthatoneofthemostimportantpredictorsforwhetherornotacoupleisgoingtogetdivorcedwashowpositiveornegativeeachpartnerwasbeingintheconversation.

好，上述就是最高秘訣2號(hào)。現(xiàn)在，最高秘訣3號(hào)：如何避開離婚。好的，讓我們想象一下你找到了你的完善對(duì)象你和他/她進(jìn)入了一生的婚姻關(guān)系。我假設(shè)每個(gè)人都不盼望離婚，當(dāng)然，或許除了PiersMorgan的太太?可是，現(xiàn)代婚姻一個(gè)哀痛的事實(shí)就是美國(guó)離婚率高達(dá)50%，世界其他國(guó)家也離這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)不遠(yuǎn)。當(dāng)然，你可以認(rèn)為婚姻裂開的緣由不是數(shù)學(xué)運(yùn)算抱負(fù)的數(shù)據(jù)源。一方面來說，很難了解到你該去測(cè)量什么或者是你該去量化什么。但這并沒有阻擋心理學(xué)家JohnGottman做這樣的討論。Gottman觀看了數(shù)百對(duì)夫婦的對(duì)談盡可能錄下來全部信息。記錄了對(duì)話的內(nèi)容，皮膚的傳導(dǎo)性，面部表情，心跳，血壓，基本上除了“太太永久是對(duì)的”以外的全部東西，當(dāng)然，太太永久是對(duì)的。但是，高特曼他狀語從句：團(tuán)隊(duì)的發(fā)覺最能夠精確?????猜測(cè)這對(duì)夫妻是否會(huì)將來的離婚的英文方在對(duì)話過程中樂觀還是消極。

Now,couplesthatwereverylow-riskscoredalotmorepositivepointsonGottmansscalethannegative.Whereasbadrelationships,bywhichImean,probablygoingtogetdivorced,theyfoundthemselvesgettingintoaspiralofnegativity.Nowjustbyusingtheseverysimpleideas,Gottmanandhisgroupwereabletopredictwhetheragivencouplewasgoingtogetdivorcedwitha90percentaccuracy.Butitwasntuntilheteamedupwithamathematician,JamesMurray,thattheyreallystartedtounderstandwhatcausesthesenegativityspiralsandhowtheyoccur.Andtheresultsthattheyfound,Ithink,arejustincrediblyimpressivelysimpleandinteresting.Sotheseequationspredicthowthewifeorhusbandisgoingtorespondintheirnextturnoftheconversation,howpositiveornegativetheyregoingtobe.Andtheseequationsdependonthemoodofthepersonwhentheyreontheirown,themoodofthepersonwhentheyrewiththeirpartner,butmostimportantly,theydependonhowmuchthehusbandandwifeinfluenceoneanother.

那些離婚風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很低的夫妻在戈特曼的測(cè)試中得到了更多正面而不是負(fù)面的分?jǐn)?shù)。相反的，在糟糕的關(guān)系中，我是指那些可能離婚的夫妻，他們發(fā)覺自己沉醉在消極的漩渦中。就用這些特別簡(jiǎn)潔的方法，Gottman和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)能夠精確?????猜測(cè)一對(duì)夫妻是否會(huì)離婚，精確?????率高達(dá)90%但是，直到他與數(shù)學(xué)家JamesMurray聯(lián)手，他們才真正找出那些消極漩渦是如何產(chǎn)生，為什么產(chǎn)生的。結(jié)果是他們發(fā)覺我認(rèn)為不行思議議太令人贊嘆的簡(jiǎn)潔而好玩。這些算式，他們用來猜測(cè)妻子或是丈夫是如何去回應(yīng)他們下一段對(duì)話，他們的樂觀或消極程度是多少。這些算式，取決于當(dāng)他們獨(dú)處時(shí)各自的心情，當(dāng)他們和伴侶在一起時(shí)候的心情，但最重要的是，取決于丈夫和妻子相互間的影響。

Now,Ithinkitsimportanttopointoutatthisstage,thattheseexactequationshavealsobeenshowntobeperfectlyableatdescribingwhathappensbetweentwocountriesinanarmsrace.Sothatanarguingcouplespiralingintonegativityandteeteringonthebrinkofdivorceisactuallymathematicallyequivalenttothebeginningofanuclearwar.

在這個(gè)階段我認(rèn)為最重要的是，這個(gè)一模一樣的算式同時(shí)也可以完善猜測(cè)兩個(gè)國(guó)家是否會(huì)開戰(zhàn)。因此一對(duì)沉醉于消極心情在離婚邊緣搖擺的夫妻-實(shí)際在數(shù)學(xué)上等同于即將開頭一場(chǎng)核戰(zhàn)斗。

Butthereallyimportantterminthisequationistheinfluencethatpeoplehaveononeanother,andinparticular,somethingcalledthenegativitythreshold.Now,thenegativitythreshold,youcanthinkofashowannoyingthehusbandcanbebeforethewifestartstogetreallypissedoff,andviceversa.Now,Ialwaysthoughtthatgoodmarriageswereaboutcompromiseandunderstandingandallowingthepersontohavethespacetobethemselves.SoIwouldhavethoughtthatperhapsthemostsuccessfulrelationshipswereoneswheretherewasareallyhighnegativitythreshold.Wherecouplesletthingsgoandonlybroughtthingsupiftheyreallywereabigdeal.Butactually,themathematicsandsubsequ