市場策略報告：從普漲轉(zhuǎn)向震蕩

核心觀點與展望1%2000500.5%2%，AIPCBAITMT行業(yè)成1周內(nèi)核心指數(shù)行業(yè)表現(xiàn)資料來源：，2周內(nèi)中信一級行業(yè)表現(xiàn)資料來源：，392CPI0.8%-2.5%降至-2.7%2CPI1.2%2022238日1339圖3大類資產(chǎn)走勢資料來源：，從普漲轉(zhuǎn)向震蕩，繼續(xù)維持重個股輕指數(shù)判斷。既上證50率先站上半年線之后，300760ETF3指數(shù)與基金市場回顧100300圖4指數(shù)與行業(yè)漲跌幅指數(shù)與大類行業(yè)周漲跌幅（%）上周漲跌幅（%）月漲跌幅（%）年初至今漲跌幅（%）最近兩周換手率（%）最新?lián)Q手率歷史分位（2010年6月至今）本周上周單日5日均上證綜指0.630.741.022.390.800.9060.52%70.16%深證成指-0.704.030.41-1.631.401.5347.13%53.67%滬深3000.201.380.823.320.490.5147.22%59.82%創(chuàng)業(yè)板50-0.703.960.36-2.991.792.1325.64%37.56%創(chuàng)業(yè)板指-0.923.740.01-4.451.601.8715.49%30.20%創(chuàng)業(yè)板綜-0.643.860.83-9.633.394.1251.79%68.35%風(fēng)格指數(shù)科創(chuàng)50-1.516.67-0.56-5.731.141.1936.09%32.15%中小綜指-0.383.580.63-7.222.102.4050.72%62.17%上證500.47-0.760.544.300.260.2660.13%68.10%中證1000.301.530.972.940.540.5381.80%86.29%中證500-0.553.490.05-1.471.191.3630.33%36.42%中證1000-0.583.370.48-8.781.722.0320.43%34.60%萬得全A-0.042.420.80-3.381.271.4765.18%74.47%能源指數(shù)4.40-1.005.0017.160.540.5665.78%72.26%材料指數(shù)1.072.131.61-5.251.261.3644.05%44.63%工業(yè)指數(shù)0.782.941.49-3.711.501.7269.31%73.74%可選消費指數(shù)0.013.740.96-1.432.152.6468.71%82.28%日常消費指數(shù)-1.60-0.60-1.99-5.541.151.4821.85%26.80%大類行業(yè)醫(yī)療保健指數(shù)-2.101.67-2.14-11.911.361.6631.74%48.72%金融指數(shù)-1.01-0.88-0.895.800.370.5036.61%58.01%信息技術(shù)指數(shù)-0.247.102.63-6.603.143.4470.17%81.23%電信服務(wù)指數(shù)2.44-1.922.657.091.031.4163.00%61.92%公用事業(yè)指數(shù)4.16-1.423.787.240.800.8356.52%57.43%房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)-4.57-0.74-5.07-10.391.271.6151.14%63.44%資料來源：，0.05%、0.35%0.28%50%值為-3.0%5%7.7%。圖5基金凈值變化資料來源：，風(fēng)險偏好與板塊熱度300306bp3bp30018.73倍。圖6滬深300風(fēng)險溢價資料來源：，圖7板塊熱度板塊熱度本周上周變化有色金屬98944公用事業(yè)978413國防軍工9797-1電子9696-1機械設(shè)備9497-3電力設(shè)備9396-3家用電器9394-1計算機9295-3通信9193-2綜合91839汽車8996-7環(huán)保89863基礎(chǔ)化工8895-7傳媒8487-3社會服務(wù)83794美容護理8390-7醫(yī)藥生物8292-10鋼鐵8191-9輕工制造8082-2紡織服飾79719石油石化78762建筑裝飾7782-5商貿(mào)零售7680-4建筑材料7586-11農(nóng)林牧漁7083-13煤炭6977-8食品飲料6887-18交通運輸6376-13房地產(chǎn)4975-26非銀金融4584-38銀行736-29資料來源：，重要資金行為本周北上資金凈流出31.07億元。行業(yè)層面，銀行、公用事業(yè)和通信等行業(yè)凈流入規(guī)模靠前，計算機、醫(yī)藥生物和傳媒等行業(yè)凈流出規(guī)?？壳?。5通威股份、工業(yè)富聯(lián)、藥明康德和邁瑞醫(yī)療等，均凈流出超5億元。圖8北上資金持股變化北上資金持股變化本周凈流入（億元）上周凈流入（億元）月度凈流入（億元）季度凈流入（億元）年度凈流入（億元）24年2月凈流入（億元）24年1月凈流入（億元）23年12月凈流入（億元）銀行20.915.921.2211.2211.2136.054.0-53.6公用事業(yè)19.76.317.353.053.015.120.516.6通信11.03.39.127.727.78.79.8-8.8食品飲料5.415.50.695.595.5114.0-19.2-56.5機械設(shè)備4.93.53.2-34.3-34.33.2-40.6-8.3煤炭3.71.84.113.313.30.48.82.4建筑裝飾3.14.21.042.942.924.217.7-6.7家用電器2.723.08.124.824.817.0-0.3-19.4石油石化2.06.62.5-4.6-4.619.7-26.8-18.4紡織服飾1.32.51.81.11.10.8-1.55.5鋼鐵0.81.4-0.74.34.36.4-1.47.9國防軍工-0.25.9-0.835.635.615.820.62.5環(huán)保-0.3-0.5-1.2-3.1-3.1-1.4-0.4-0.5綜合-0.40.1-0.60.20.21.4-0.60.1電力設(shè)備-0.79.9-4.6-58.7-58.740.4-94.574.4社會服務(wù)-0.91.1-1.1-0.4-0.40.8-0.1-5.9交通運輸-1.4-9.6-8.532.232.215.825.0-0.7建筑材料-1.81.6-2.9-8.8-8.80.6-6.4-4.6汽車-2.524.3-0.321.821.840.5-18.57.3輕工制造-2.8-3.8-4.1-14.3-14.3-8.7-1.5-3.1農(nóng)林牧漁-3.1-1.7-6.0-2.4-2.49.2-5.6-2.4電子-3.131.1-4.251.251.234.820.759.4有色金屬-3.927.53.7-1.0-1.036.3-40.921.2基礎(chǔ)化工-5.08.8-8.7-3.4-3.43.32.013.6房地產(chǎn)-5.2-1.9-9.6-7.7-7.7-1.13.14.4美容護理-5.35.3-7.1-4.9-4.910.8-8.6-6.2非銀金融-5.59.6-12.727.227.274.4-34.5-40.9商貿(mào)零售-5.9-0.9-8.2-6.7-6.75.3-3.8-6.0傳媒-8.96.7-11.2-63.5-63.5-13.8-38.5-21.1醫(yī)藥生物-15.111.6-20.3-51.8-51.8-18.1-13.47.9計算機-20.410.7-24.67.67.67.125.0-39.4資料來源：，ETFETF300ETF（247.3億元億元,ETF2000ETF（-17.1億元50ETF（-4.0億元）ETF（-1.4億元。圖9指數(shù)ETF凈申贖變化指數(shù)ETF凈申購變化跟蹤ETF本周凈申購（億元）上周凈申購（億元）滬深300247.377.3263.82540.82540.8中證50065.251.174.8440.9440.9創(chuàng)業(yè)板43.9-19.034.5290.1290.1中證100041.1-10.237.9283.1283.1科創(chuàng)504.1-54.0-2.815.615.6中證紅利1.2-3.50.820.020.0上證紅利1.1-6.1-0.93.73.7上證500.4-11.73.0262.9262.9科創(chuàng)創(chuàng)業(yè)50-0.1-4.0-1.1-1.7-1.7MSCI中國A50-1.1-0.3-1.2-3.4-3.4創(chuàng)成長-1.4-0.9-2.1-1.5-1.5創(chuàng)業(yè)板50-4.0-8.3-6.810.910.9中證2000-17.1-25.2-24.3-3.5-3.5資料來源：，盈利與估值變化PE18.65.8%；PB1.88.0%。PB89.0%33.9%圖10行業(yè)大盤股估值中位數(shù)行業(yè)大盤股估值中位數(shù)PE估值PE歷史分位PB估值PB歷史分位相對估值相對估值歷史分位煤炭8.226.8%1.673.6%0.979.5%美容護理28.45.1%3.760.9%2.189.0%公用事業(yè)16.546.5%1.658.8%0.999.9%機械設(shè)備22.322.7%2.033.4%1.191.8%鋼鐵10.146.8%0.729.9%0.471.5%汽車20.860.6%1.729.6%1.097.6%傳媒13.87.8%1.928.8%1.153.6%商貿(mào)零售12.98.2%1.626.7%0.976.4%通信30.638.4%2.425.5%1.369.1%紡織服飾15.624.1%1.522.3%0.962.2%石油石化11.111.7%1.520.3%0.859.5%家用電器16.111.3%2.220.0%1.380.8%電子29.928.8%2.519.9%1.474.9%國防軍工35.01.0%2.617.6%1.455.6%輕工制造15.42.1%1.416.8%0.845.6%銀行5.328.9%0.511.1%0.326.7%計算機35.536.7%2.710.3%1.643.0%社會服務(wù)24.07.2%2.410.2%1.446.0%電力設(shè)備17.91.1%1.810.0%1.026.5%全市場18.65.8%1.88.0%--有色金屬19.412.6%1.67.2%0.928.5%建筑裝飾11.732.9%1.06.5%0.627.4%醫(yī)藥生物19.38.6%2.15.4%1.217.2%交通運輸12.225.2%1.25.1%0.742.9%食品飲料20.01.8%3.25.1%1.833.9%綜合19.642.3%