馬來(lái)西亞央行（BNM）：馬來(lái)西亞貨幣和金融發(fā)展（第38卷第4期）2023年第四季度

BNM

Quarterly

Bulletin

Vol.38No.4

Quarter2023

4QFourth

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q20232

TheBNMQuarterlyBulletinpresentsaquarterlyreviewofMalaysia’seconomic,monetaryandfinancialdevelopments.

ItincludestheBank’slatestassessmentsonthedirectionoftheeconomygoingforward.TheBulletinalsoprovidesinsightsoncurrenteconomicandfinancialissues,includinghighlightsofpolicyinitiativesundertakenbyBankNegaraMalaysiain

pursuitofitsmandates.

Contents

3KeyHighlights

4InternationalEconomicEnvironment

5DevelopmentsintheMalaysianEconomy

10MonetaryandFinancialDevelopments

13TheBank’sPolicyConsiderations

15MacroeconomicOutlook

17Annex

GDPgrewy3%

Whatarethefactorssupportinggrowth?

Continuedexpansioninhouseholdspending

PrivateConsumption:4.2%(3Q2023:4.6%)

Strongergrowthofinoundtourism

ExportsofServices:37.3%(3Q2023:21.2%)

Higherinvestmentgrowth

GrossFixedCapitalFormation:6.4%(3Q2023:5.1%)

RM

TheringgitappreciatedagainsttheUSdollar

MYR/USD

2.1%

(3Q2023:-0.2%)

USDollarIndex-4.6%

(3Q2023:3.2%)

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q20233

KeyHighlightsfor4Q2023

Continuedimprovementsinlaourmarket

UnemploymentRate

3.3%

(3Q2023:3.4%)

PrivateSector

RealWages

1.5%

(3Q2023:1.4%)

Note:Privatesectorwagesrefertowagesofworkerinthemanufacturingandservicessectors.

Lowerheadlineinflationat1.6%

Whatarethekeyfactorsaffectinginflation?

Lowerfoodinflation

Foodandnon-alcoholicbeveragesinflation:2.8%(3Q2023:4.1%)

Partlyoffsetby

Slightincreaseinfuelinflation

Fuelinflation:-1%(3Q2023:-2.9%)

Gloalgrowthremainedmoderatein4Q2023

GDPofSelectedEconomies

Annualchange,%

5.6

5.2

3.13.0

2.2

0.1

5.1

5.0

2.2

Highlights

?Gloalgrowthremainedmoderate,

weighedbyhighinterestrates.Resilient

labourmarketscontinuedtosupportgrowth.

?USandChinaregisteredhighergrowths,drivenbystrongerprivateconsumption,investmentsandnetexports.

?Signsoftraderecovery.Furthersignsofimprovementinelectricalandelectronics(E&E),aswellasmachineryandequipment(M&E)industries.

?Headlineandcoreinflationtrended

downward,inlinewithlowercommodityprices.

?BrentoilpriceremainedelevatedatUSD83perbarrelin4Q2023(3Q2023:USD86perbarrel)asgeopoliticalriskpersists.

InternationalEconomicEnvironment

GloalEconomicPerformance

PhilippinesChinaChineseIndonesiaUSMalaysiaSingaporeKoreaEuro

Taipeiarea

3Q20234Q2023

Source:Nationalauthorities

Smallercontractioninexportsgrowth,whilesome

countrieshaveregisteredpositivegrowth

ExportsofSeletedEconomiesinUSDterms

Annualchange,%

6.9

5.7

3.6

1.4

-1.2

-8.3

-9.9

MalaysiaPhilippines

3Q20234Q2023

Source:Nationalauthorities

Chinese

Taipei

ChinaIndonesia

ThailandKorea

Singapore

Vietnam

-9.3

5.9

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q20234

DevelopmentsintheMalaysianEconomy

GrossDomesticProduct

SlowereconomicactivityinDecemberweighedon4Q2023growth

MonthlyGDP

Annualchange,%

4.2

3.2

2.6

1.4

Oct.2023Nov.2023Dec.2023

3.93.8

Jul.2023

Aug.2023

Sep.2023

Source:DepartmentofStatistics,Malaysia

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q20235

Whatfactorssupportgrowthin

4Q2023?

Continuedhousehold

spending

Improvementinlabour

marketconditions

Furtherrecoveryin

tourismactivities

Sustainedinvestmentactivity

Whichsectorsaffectedgrowthin

December2023?

Services(Dec:3%)

Nov:5.5%;Oct:4.1%

Manufacturing(Dec:-1.5%)

Nov:-0.2%;Oct:0.9%

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q20236

DevelopmentsintheMalaysianEconomy

Malaysia’sEconomicPerformance

Higherdomesticdemand

Annualchange,%

PrivateConsumption

4.2%

Continuedhousehold

spendinginbothnecessities

anddiscretionaryitems

PulicConsumption

7.3%

(3Q2023:5.8%)

HighersuppliesandservicesspendingbytheGovernment

PulicInvestment

11.3%

(3Q2023:7.5%)

Highercapitalexpenditure

byGovernmentandpublic

corporations

NetExports

-35.6%

(3Q2023:-22.7%)

Higherimportsoutpacedexports

Supportfromcapacity

expansionbyfirmsand

furtherprogressinongoing

projects

4%

(3Q2023:4.5%)

(3Q2023:4.6%)

PrivateInvestment

Expansioninmosteconomicsectors

Annualchange,%

Manufacturing

-0.3%

(3Q2023:-0.1%)

ContinuedweaknessinE&Eclusteramidtechdowncycle,offsettingresilientgrowthindomestic-orientedclusters

Source:DepartmentofStatistics,Malaysia

Construction

Mining

3.8%

(3Q2023:-0.1%)

3.6%

(3Q2023:7.2%)

Furtherexpansionincivil

engineeringsubsector

weighedbyweak

non-residentialactivities

Improvementinnaturalgasandoilproduction

Ongoingrecoveryoftourism

activitiesweighedby

contractioninfinanceand

insurancesubsector

Expansioninoilpalm

productionamidimproved

laboursupply

1.9%

(3Q2023:0.9%)

4.2%

(3Q2023:5%)

Agriculture

Services

Laourmarketcontinuedtoimprove

?Theunemploymentratedeclinedfurtherto3.3%in

4Q2023(3Q2023:3.4%),reachingpre-pandemiclevels.

?Employmentimprovedto16.35millionpersonsin4Q2023(3Q2023:16.25millionpersons)amidcontinueddemandforlabour.

?Laboursupplyremainedforthcomingasthelabourforceparticipationratewassustainedat70.1%in4Q2023

(3Q2023:70.1%).

DevelopmentsintheMalaysianEconomy

LaourMarketConditions

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q20237

Lowerunemploymentrate

Unemploymentrate,

%oflaourforce

3.4

1Q20232Q20233Q20234Q2023

Source:DepartmentofStatistics,Malaysia

3.5

3.5

3.3

Higherrealwagesasinflationdeclines

Privatesectorwages,

Annualchange,%

10

8

6

4

2

0

8.2

3.4

1.4

3Q20224Q20221Q20232Q20233Q20234Q2023

RealwagesNominalwages

Note:Privatesectorwagesreferstowagesofworkersinthemanufacturingandservicessector.

Source:DepartmentofStatistics,Malaysia,BankNegaraMalaysiaEstimates

Sectoralnominalwages,

Annualchange,%

9.1

8

6.7

3.63.3

2

0

3Q20224Q20221Q20232Q20233Q20234Q2023

ManufacturingServices

3.02.9

6

4

3.5

3.1

1.5

10

Inflationpervasivenessdeclinedfurther

ShareofCPIitemsrecordingmonth-on-monthpriceincrease,%

?Feweritemsrecordinghigherpricesinthequarter

Long-termaverage

2011-2019:45.6%

Oct:42.4%Nov:38.4%Dec:28%

36.3%duringthequarter

(3Q2023:40.8%;4Qavgfrom2011-2019:41.7%)

Jun.2020Mar.2021Dec.2021Sep.2022Jun.2023

Source:DepartmentofStatistics,Malaysia,BankNegaraMalaysiaEstimates

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q20238

DevelopmentsintheMalaysianEconomy

Disinflationtrendcontinuedamideasingcostenvironment

Headlineandcoreinflationcontinuedtomoderateduringthequarter

Annualchange,%

?Headlineinflationdeclinedfurther,withcoreinflationmoderatingtoitslong-termaverage

Long-termaverage(2011-2019)

Headline:2.2%

Core:2%

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.6

1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q

202120222023

SelectedNon-CoreItem

Freshfood

SelectedCoreItems

Foodawayfromhome

Foodathome

Repairandmaintenanceof

personaltransport

Note:Coreinflationiscomputedbyexcludingprice-volatileandprice-administereditemsfromheadlineinflation.

Source:DepartmentofStatistics,Malaysia,BankNegaraMalaysiaEstimates

0.5%

(3Q2023:1.9%)

4.3%

(3Q2023:6%)

1.6%

(3Q2023:2.8%)

4.7%

(3Q2023:6.7%)

CURRENCY

MATURITY

DevelopmentsintheMalaysianEconomy

ExternalSectorDevelopment

Smallerdeclineinexports,whileimportsgrowthturnedpositive

Improvingexportsofnon-E&Eproductsandcommodities

Higherimportsofcapitalandintermediategoods

Grossexports

-6.9%(3Q2023:-15.2%)

Grossimports

1.3%(3Q2023:-16.3%)

Continuedcurrentaccountsurpluswithoutflowsinfinancialaccount

CurrentAccount

RM0.3bil;0.1%ofGDP

(3Q2023:RM9.1bil;2%ofGDP)

Drivingfactors:

?Markedincreaseinprimaryincome

deficitduetohigherinvestmentincome

accruedtoforeigninvestorsinMalaysia.

Whichisoffsetby:

?Continuedgoodssurplusunderpinnedbyimprovementinexportsasdemandfromkeytradepartnersimproved.

?Narrowerservicesdeficitreflecting

highertravelreceiptsamidtheongoingrecoveryininboundtourism.

Source:DepartmentofStatistics,Malaysia,BankNegaraMalaysia

Drivingfactors:

?Netoutflowsinotherinvestment,

drivenmainlybyhigherrepaymentforinterbankborrowingbyonshorebanks.

?Netoutflowsinportfolioinvestment

duemainlytoacquisitionofdebt

securitiesabroadbyresidentinvestors.

Whichoffset:

?HigherFDIinflowsparticularlyintheICTandmanufacturingsectors.

FinancialAccount

NetoutflowsRM19.9bil

(3Q2023:NetinflowsRM14.9bil)

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q20239

Externaldetdeclinedslightly

RM1.24trillionor68.2%ofGDP

(3Q2023:RM1.25trillionor69%ofGDP)

?Lowerinterbankborrowingsduetorepaymentsbydomesticbanks.

?Maturityofbondsandnotes.

Externaldetremainedmanageale

%oftotalexternaldet

Ringgit-denominated:33.1%

Unaffectedbyringgitexchangeratefluctuations

FCY-denominated:66.9%

ofwhich65%issubjecttoBNMprudential®ulatoryrequirementsand16.6%areduetointragrouploans

Medium-andlong-term:58.3%

Limitedrolloverrisks

InternationalInvestmentPosition

RM119.4billion(3Q2023:RM94.9billion)

InternationalReserves*USD114.8billion?5.4monthsofimportsofgoodsandservices.

?1timeofshort-termexternaldebt.

*Asat31January2024.

Source:MinistryofFinanceMalaysia,DepartmentofStatisticsMalaysiaandBankNegaraMalaysia

MonetaryandFinancialDevelopments

FinancialMarketsandExchangeRate

NEER-0.9%

(3Q2023:+1.4%)

Theringgitdepreciatedagainstmajor

tradingpartners

NoteNEERreferstothenominaleffectiveexchangerate.

Source:BankNegaraMalaysiaandBloomberg

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202310

Domesticfinancialmarketsweredrivenmainlyby

changesinexpectationsovertheglobalmonetary

policypath

Bondyieldsdeclined

inlinewithregionalpeerson

expectationsofratecutsbytheUSFederalReserve

Equitymarketsrose

supportedbylowerglobalinterestrateexpectationsandpositivereaction

tovariousnationalmasterplans

announcedinthethirdquarterof2023

MGS10YYield

-23bps

(3Q2023:+12bps)

KLCI

+2.1%QoQ

(3Q2023:+3.4%)

Keyfactors

ConsensusthattheUSpolicyratehaspeakedandthat

theUSFederalReservewillstarteasingmonetarypolicy

alongwithothermajorcentralbanksin2024

Positiveimpactfromtheimplementationofdomestic

structuralreformsisexpectedtobesupportiveof

domesticfinancialmarkets

Source:BankNegaraMalaysia,ETPandBursaMalaysia

MonetaryandFinancialDevelopments

InterestRatesandLiquidity

Interbankratesedgedhigherwhilefixeddepositratesdeclined

Interestrates(atend-period),%

6.0

5.11

5.09

5.0

4.0

3.57

3.00

3.0

2.73

2.0

3Q20234Q2023

OvernightPolicyRate(OPR)

Averagelendingrate(ALR)

?The3MKLIBORedgedhigheramidpre-emptivefundingdemand

bybanksfollowingtheseasonalyear-enddepositcompetition.Sincethen,interbankmarketconditionshaveeasedwiththe3MKLIBORtrendinglowerbeginningJanuary2024.

?Fixeddeposit(FD)ratesdeclinedby1and3basispointsacrosstenuresof1to12months,reflectingbanks’fundingstrategyto

managetheircostoffunds.

?Averagelendingrate(ALR)onoutstandingloansincreasedmarginallyduringthequarter.

Source:BankNegaraMalaysiaandBloomberg

Average12M?xeddeposit(FD)rate3MKLIBOR

1Q20232Q2023

3.00

3.77

2.71

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202311

Sufficientbankingsystemliquiditytosupportfinancialintermediation

OutstandingringgitliquidityplacedwithBNM(atend-period),RMillion

200

160

120

80

40

0

1Q20222Q20223Q20224Q20221Q20232Q20233Q20234Q2023

StatutoryReserveRequirement(SRR)Moneymarketborrowings(excl.repos)

BNMdebtsecuritiesRepos

Others

?Totalbankingsystemliquidityremainedsufficient,increasingslightlyamidhigherliquidityinjectionbyBNM.

?Attheinstitutionallevel,almostallanksmaintainedsurplusovernightplacementwithBNMasatend-December2023.

Source:BankNegaraMalaysia

Keydevelopments

Credittothe

PrivateNon-

FinancialSector

4.7%2

(3Q2023:4.3%)

?Thehigherbusinessloangrowthwasdrivenmainlybyhighergrowthin

workingcapitalloans.

?Ofnote,thegrowthinoutstandingSMEloansremainedforthcoming(8.2%;

3Q2023:7%).

?Outstandinghouseholdloangrowthcontinuedtobesustainedacrosskeypurposes.

?Thisreflectedthecontinueddemandforloans,especiallyloansforthepurchaseofhousing,carandpersonaluse.

2Allnumbersquotedareintermsofannualchange.

3Referstoloansfromthebankingsystemanddevelopmentfinancialinstitutions(DFIs).

Source:BankNegaraMalaysia

?Outstandingloans3expandedby4.9%(3Q2023:4.1%),drivenbyhighergrowthinbusinessloans.

?Outstandingcorporatebondsgrowthmoderatedslightlyto4.2%

(3Q2023:5%).

HouseholdLoans5.6%

(3Q2023:5.4%)

BusinessLoans3.6%

(3Q2023:1.9%)

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202312

MonetaryandFinancialDevelopments

CreditConditions

Creditgrowthincreasedfollowingimprovementinusinessloangrowth

CredittothePrivateNon-FinancialSector1

Contributiontogrowth(ppt)Annualchange(%)

4Q20221Q20232Q20233Q20234Q2023

Outstandinghouseholdloans

Outstandingcorporatebonds

1Consistsofoutstandingcorporatebondsandoutstandingloanstobusinessesandhouseholds.

Source:BankNegaraMalaysia

Outstandingbusinessloans Total(RHS)

0.0

0.0

4.0

4.0

6.0

6.0

2.0

2.0

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202313

TheBank’sPolicyConsiderations

HighlightsoftheJanuary

MPCmeeting

?TheMonetaryPolicyCommittee(MPC)maintainedtheOPRat3.00%attheNovember2023andJanuary2024MPCmeetings.

?TheMPCremainsvigilanttoongoingdevelopmentstoinformtheassessmentontheoutlookofdomesticinflationandgrowth.

Monetarypolicyremainssupportive

oftheeconomy

AttheNovember2023andJanuary2024MPCmeetings,theMPCmaintainedtheOPRat3.00%.

AtthelatestMPCmeetinginJanuary,theMPCassessedthat

theglobaleconomycontinuestoexpand,drivenbydomestic

demandamidstronglabourmarketconditions.Therearefurthersignsofrecoveryintheelectricalandelectronics(E&E)sector,butglobaltraderemainssoftpartlyduetothecontinuedshiftinspendingfromgoodstoservices,andongoingtraderestrictions.WhileChina’seconomycontinuestoshowsignsofimprovement,itsrecoveryremainsmodestgiventheweaknessinthepropertymarket.Globalheadlineandcoreinflationedgeddownwardsinrecentmonthsbutcontinuetobeaboveaverage.Ontheglobalfront,whilethemonetarypolicystanceislikelytoremaintightin

thenearterm,thetighteningcyclehaspeakedformostcentral

banks.Thegrowthoutlookremainssubjecttodownsiderisks,

mainlyfromanescalationofgeopoliticaltensions,higher-than-

anticipatedinflationoutturns,andheightenedvolatilityinglobal

financialmarkets.

AttheJanuaryMPCmeeting,thefourthquarteradvance

estimatesforGDPaffirmedthattheoverallgrowthofthe

Malaysianeconomyfor2023expandedwithinexpectations.

Movingforward,theMPCassessedthatdomesticgrowth

isexpectedtoimprovein2024,supportedbytherecovery

inexportsandresilientdomesticexpenditure.Continued

employmentandwagegrowthremainsupportiveofhousehold

spending.Touristarrivalsandspendingareexpectedtoimprove

further.Investmentactivitywouldbesupportedbycontinued

progressofmulti-yearprojectsinboththeprivateandpublic

sectors,andimplementationofcatalyticinitiativesunderthe

nationalmasterplans.Thegrowthoutlookremainssubjectto

downsiderisksstemmingfromweaker-than-expectedexternal

demandandlargerdeclinesincommodityproduction.Meanwhile,

upsideriskstogrowthmainlyemanatefromgreaterspilloverfrom

thetechupcycle,stronger-than-expectedtourismactivityand

fasterimplementationofexistingandnewprojects.

Asexpected,bothheadlineandcoreinflationcontinued

tomoderateinthefourthquarter,mainlyduetolowercost

pressuresamidstabilisingdemandconditions.Overall,both

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202314

TheBank’sPolicyConsiderations

headlineandcoreinflationfor2023arewithinexpectations,

averagingfortheyearat2.5%and3%,respectively.In2024,

inflationisexpectedtoremainmodest,broadlyreflectingstable

costanddemandconditions.Riskstotheinflationoutlookremain

highlysubjecttochangestodomesticpolicyonsubsidiesand

pricecontrols,aswellasglobalcommoditypricesandfinancial

marketdevelopments.Ofnote,theGovernment’sintentionto

reviewpricecontrolsandsubsidiesin2024willaffecttheoutlook

forinflationanddemandconditions.

TherecentringgitmovementsasattheJanuaryMPCmeeting

wereassessedtobeprimarilydrivenbyexternalfactors,and

notreflectiveofthecurrentdomesticeconomicperformance

andprospects.Astheriskofheightenedvolatilityintheglobal

financialandforeignexchangemarketsremains,BankNegara

Malaysiawillcontinuetoensuresufficientliquiditytosupportthe

orderlyfunctioningofthedomesticforeignexchangemarket.

Financialinstitutionscontinuetooperatewithstrongcapitaland

liquiditybuffers,withdomesticfinancialconditionsremaining

conducivetosustaincreditgrowth.

AtthecurrentOPRlevel,theMPCdeemedthatthemonetary

policystanceremainssupportiveoftheeconomyandis

consistentwiththecurrentassessmentoftheinflationand

growthprospects.TheMPCremainsvigilanttoongoing

developmentstoinformtheassessmentontheoutlookof

domesticinflationandgrowth.TheMPCwillensurethatthe

monetarypolicystanceremainsconducivetosustainable

economicgrowthamidpricestability.

Thissectionisintentionallyleft

lank

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202315

MacroeconomicOutlook

Sustainedgloalgrowthin2024

Despitetightmonetarypolicy,tradereoundandresilientlaourmarketwillsupportglobalgrowth

Malaysianeconomytocontinueexpansion

Domesticdemandtoanchorgrowthin2024

For2024,growthoftheMalaysianeconomyisexpectedtotrend

Theglobaleconomyisexpectedtogrowatasustainedpacein

2024.Tightmonetarypolicyandwithdrawaloffiscalsupportwill

weighongrowth.Butthiswillbeoffsetbyareboundininternationaltrade,resilientlabourmarketandfallinginflation.Theglobaltradereboundisdrivenbyglobaltechnologyupcycle,andfullrecoveryintourismactivity.Globalinflationwillmoderatefurther,asfalling

commoditypricesandlooseninglabourmarkettranslatetolowercoreinflation.Afterbenefitingfromreopeningrecoveryin2023,

China’sgrowthisexpectedtosoftenin2024,givencontinueddragfromthepropertymarketdownturn.

Downsiderisksstemmainlyfromanescalationofgeopoliticaltensions,higher-than-anticipatedinflationoutturns,and

heightenedvolatilityinglobalfinancialmarkets.However,upsiderisktoglobalgrowthcouldarisefromstronger-than-expecteddomesticdemand,especiallyinadvancedeconomies,and

strongerfiscalpolicysupportinChina.

higher,liftedbytherecoveryinexportsandresilientdomestic

expenditure.Householdspendingwillbesupportedbycontinued

growthinemploymentandwages.Touristarrivalsandspendingare

expectedtoimprovefurther.Moreover,investmentactivitywould

besupportedbycontinuedprogressofmulti-yearprojectsinboth

theprivateandpublicsectors,andtheimplementationofcatalytic

initiativesundernationalmasterplans.Budget2024measureswill

alsoprovideadditionalsupporttoeconomicactivity.

Thegrowthoutlookremainssubjecttodownsiderisksfrom

weaker-than-expectedexternaldemandanddeclinesin

commodityproduction.Meanwhile,upsideriskstodomestic

growthemanatefromgreaterspilloverfromthetechupcycle,

stronger-than-expectedtourismactivityandfasterimplementation

ofbothexistingandnewprojects.

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202316

MacroeconomicOutlook

expectedtoremainmodestin2024

Headlineinflationandcoreinflationare

Headlineinflationisexpectedtoaveragebetween2.1%-3.6%1

fortheyearasawhole

Asexpected,bothheadlineandcoreinflationhavemoderated,

mainlyduetolowercostpressuresamidstabilisingdemand

conditions.In2024,inflationisexpectedtoremainmodest,broadly

reflectingstablecostanddemandconditions.However,the

inflationoutlookremainshighlysubjecttochangestodomestic

policyonsubsidiesandpricecontrols,aswellasglobalcommodity

pricesandfinancialmarketdevelopments.

Thissectionisintentionallyleftlank

1Source:EconomicOutlook2024,MinistryofFinanceMalaysia.

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202317

Annex

Table1:GDPbyExpenditureComponents(atconstant2015prices)

Share

2023

(%)

2022

2023

4Q

Year

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

Year

Annualgrowth(%)

AggregateDomesticDemand(excludingstocks)Privatesector

94.1

76.2

6.8

7.8

9.2

10.3

4.6

5.6

4.5

4.5

4.8

4.5

5.2

4.2

4.8

4.7

Consumption

60.8

7.3

11.2

5.9

4.3

4.6

4.2

4.7

Investment

15.5

10.3

7.2

4.7

5.1

4.5

4.0

4.6

Publicsector

17.8

3.9

4.7

-0.3

4.6

6.2

8.4

5.1

Consumption

13.3

3.0

4.5

-2.2

3.8

5.8

7.3

3.9

Investment

4.6

6.0

5.3

5.7

7.9

7.5

11.3

8.6

NetExports

4.7

23.0

-1.0

54.4

-3.7

-22.7

-35.6

-11.3

ExportsofGoodsandServices

66.3

8.6

14.5

-3.3

-9.4

-12.0

-6.3

-7.9

ImportsofGoodsandServices

61.6

7.2

15.9

-6.5

-9.7

-11.1

-2.9

-7.6

RealGDP

100.0

7.1

8.7

5.6

2.9

3.3

3.0

3.7

GDP(q-o-qgrowth,seasonallyadjusted)

-

-1.7

-

0.9

1.5

2.6

-2.1

-

Note:Figuresmaynotaddupduetoroundingandexclusionofstocks.

Source:DepartmentofStatistics,Malaysia

Table2:GDPbyEconomicActivity(atconstant2015prices)

Share

2023

(%)

2022

2023

4Q

Year

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

Year

Annualgrowth(%)

Services

59.2

9.1

10.9

7.3

4.7

5.0

4.2

5.3

Manufacturing

23.4

3.9

8.1

3.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

0.7

Agriculture

6.4

1.1

0.1

1.0

-1.0

0.9

1.9

0.7

Mining

6.2

6.3

2.6

2.4

-2.3

-0.1

3.8

1.0

Construction

3.6

10.1

5.0

7.4

6.2

7.2

3.6

6.1

RealGDP

100.0

7.1

8.7

5.6

2.9

3.3

3.0

3.7

Note:Numbersdonotaddupduetoroundingandexclusionofimportdutiescomponent.

Source:DepartmentofStatistics,Malaysia

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202318

Annex

Tale3:BalanceofPayments1

2022

2023

4Q

Year

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

Year

RMillion

CurrentAccount

27.5

55.1

4.3

9.1

9.1

0.3

22.8

(%ofGDP)

5.9

3.2

1.0

2.1

2.0

0.1

1.2

Goods

57.7

186.0

39.9

29.5

32.7

30.8

132.9

Services

-12.1

-56.4

-12.8

-11.3

-10.3

-7.4

-41.9

Primaryincome

-11.6

-59.4

-16.9

-6.3

-11.0

-20.9

-55.1

Secondaryincome

-6.5

-15.1

-5.9

-2.8

-2.2

-2.3

-13.2

FinancialAccount

-1.1

12.4

-2.4

-11.6

14.9

-19.9

-18.9

Directinvestment

-9.3

15.9

10.9

-4.9

-6.1

4.7

4.6

Assets

-24.1

-48.9

-2.5

-9.8

-13.3

-7.4

-33.0

Liabilities

14.8

64.9

13.4

4.9

7.2

12.1

37.6

Portfolioinvestment

-26.7

-50.6

-33.3

8.1

-14.1

-6.4

-45.7

Assets

-15.0

-30.5

-16.3

-10.1

-15.4

-10.3

-52.2

Liabilities

-11.7

-20.1

-17.0

18.3

1.3

3.9

6.5

Financialderivatives

-1.7

-2.2

-0.9

0.3

0.5

-3.8

-3.9

Otherinvestment

36.6

49.2

20.9

-15.1

34.6

-14.4

26.0

Neterrors&omissions2

-3.8

-13.6

-7.6

-9.9

-16.3

9.6

-24.2

OverallBalance

22.5

53.4

-5.7

-12.4

7.7

-10.2

-20.6

Assets:(-)denotesoutflowsduetotheacquisitionofassetsabroadbyresidents.

Liabilities:(+)denotesinflowsduetotheincurrenceofforeignliabilities.

1InaccordancewiththeSixthEditionoftheBalanceofPaymentsandInternationalInvestmentPositionManual(BPM6)bytheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).

2Asat1Q2018,quarterlynetE&Oexcludesreservesrevaluationchanges.Thispracticeisbackdatedupto1Q2010.

Note:Numbersmaynotaddupduetorounding.

Source:DepartmentofStatistics,MalaysiaandBankNegaraMalaysia

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202319

Annex

Table4:OutstandingExternalDebt

2022

2023

end-Dec

end-Sep

end-Dec

RMillion

TotalExternalDet

1,144.7

1,252.0

1,242.5

USDbillionequivalent

Byinstrument

260.7

266.7

270.7

Bondsandnotes

176.0

175.6

169.8

Interbankborrowings

218.6

238.4

220.7

Intragrouploans

155.2

185.2

189.2

Loans

76.0

82.7

86.9

Non-residentholdingsofdomesticdebtsecurities

246.6

269.7

269.5

Non-residentdeposits

111.6

139.1

137.5

IMFallocationofSpecialDrawingRights(SDRs)

28.2

29.7

29.7

Others

132.6

131.4

139.1

Maturityprofile

Medium-andlong-term

663.0

722.5

724.1

Short-term

481.6

529.5

518.4

Currencydenomination

Ringgit

378.7

410.0

411.5

Foreign

766.0

842.0

831.1

Totaldebt/GDP(%)

63.9

69.0

68.2

Short-termdebt/Totaldebt(%)

42.1

42.3

41.7

Reserves/Short-termexternaldebt(times)

1.0

1.0

1.0

Note:Figuresmaynotaddupduetorounding.

Source:MinistryofFinanceMalaysiaandBankNegaraMalaysia

QuarterlyBulletin|4Q202320

Annex

Table5:CredittothePrivateNon-FinancialSector

2022

2023

2022

2023

4Q

3Q

4Q

4Q

3Q

4Q

End-period(RMbillion)

Annualchange(%)

TotalCredittothePrivateNon-FinancialSector1

2610.7

2689.7

2734.4

4.7

4.3

4.7

Outstandingcorporatebonds2

550.6

570.2

573.4

4.6

5.0

4.2

Outstandingloans3,4

2060.1

2119.5

2160.9

4.7

4.1

4.9

Businesses

748.2

758.4

775.1

3.4

1.9

3.6

SMEs

355.4

373.9

384.6

5.7

7.0

8.2

Non-SMEs

388.5

380.4

386.4

1.4

-2.7

-0.5

Households

1311.9

1361.2

1385.8

5.5

5.4

5.6

CredittoBusinesses5

1298.7

1328.6

1348.5

3.9

3.2

3.8

1Startingwiththe4Q2022QuarterlyBulletin,credittotheprivatenon-financialsectorwasintroducedtoenhancethequalityofdataonfinancingchannelledtowardsthegenerationofdomesticeconomicactivity.Thisreplacesthepreviousseriesonnetfinancingtotheprivatesector.

2IncludesconventionalandIslamicshort-termpapersinadditiontolonger-termbondsandsukuk;excludesissuancesbyCagamas,government,financialinstitutionsandnon-bankfinancialinstitutions.

3Loansbythe