首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家展望（英文）-世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇

CentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety

ChiefEconomists

Outlook

January2024

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Disclaimer

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?2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmay

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2

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

January2024

Thisquarterlybrie?ngbuildsonthelatestpolicy

developmentresearchaswellasconsultations

andsurveyswithleadingchiefeconomistsfrom

boththepublicandprivatesectors,organized

bytheWorldEconomicForum’sCentreforthe

NewEconomyandSociety.

Itaimstosummarizetheemergingcontours

ofthecurrenteconomicenvironmentand

identifyprioritiesforfurtheractionbypolicy-

makersandbusinessleadersinresponsetothe

compoundingshockstotheglobaleconomy

fromgeoeconomicandgeopoliticalevents.

Thesurveyfeaturedinthisbrie?ngwas

conductedinNovember-December2023.

3

Contents

Executivesummary

5

1.Globalconditionsremainsubdued

7

Growthmomentumisslowingacrossregions

7

Tighteningcyclemaybenearingtheend10

2.Geopoliticalriftscompounduncertainty12 Fragmentationcloudstheoutlook12 Governmentscontinuetoturninward153.Arti?cialintelligencetakesthespotlight18 AImayexpandtheproductivityfrontier18 Navigatingthesocietalimpact20

References23

Contributors28

Acknowledgements

29

Cover:Unsplash

4

Executivesummary

TheJanuary2024ChiefEconomistsOutlooklaunchesamidprotractedweaknessin

globaleconomicconditionsandwideningregionaldivergence.Uncertaintythat

dominatedtheoutlookoverthelastyear

continuestocloudnear-termeconomic

developments:56%ofchiefeconomists

expecttheglobaleconomytoweakenoverthenextyear,butanother43%foresee

unchangedorstrongerconditions.

Whiletherearepositivedevelopments,suchaseasingin?ationarypressuresandadvancesinthe?eldofarti?cialintelligence(AI),

businessesandpolicy-makersfacepersistentheadwindsandcontinuedvolatilityasglobaleconomicactivityremainsslow,?nancial

conditionsremaintightandgeopoliticalriftsandsocialstrainscontinuetogrow.

Regionally,theresultshighlightdiverging

growthpatterns.Themostbuoyant

economicactivityisstillexpectedinSouthandEastAsia.Chinaremainsanexception,withthepreviouscombinationofstrong

andmoderategrowthexpectationsbeingreplacedwithlargelymoderate(69%)

expectationsfor2024.IntheUSandthe

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica,theoutlook

hasweakenedsincetheSeptember2023

editionoftheChiefEconomistsOutlook,withaboutsixoutoftenrespondentsexpectingmoderateorstrongergrowththisyear.In

Europe,77%expectweakorveryweakgrowthin2024.

Elsewhereintheworld,theexpectations

areforbroadlymoderategrowth.

Thesurveyresultsre?ecttheimprovement

inthein?ationoutlookfor2024,with

expectationsforhighin?ationbeingpared

backacrossallregions.Themajorityalso

expectthatlabourmarkets(77%)and

?nancialconditions(70%)willloosen.

Thiseditionoftheoutlookfocuseson

twokeyphenomenaimpactingtheglobal

economy–geopoliticaldevelopmentsand

advancementsingenerativeAI.Almost

sevenoutoftenchiefeconomistsexpect

thepaceofgeoeconomicfragmentation

toacceleratethisyear.Themajorityof

respondentssayitwillstokevolatilityin

theglobaleconomy(87%)andinstock

markets(80%).Thereappearstobeequally

strongconsensusthatrecentgeopolitical

developmentswillincreaselocalization(86%)

andstrengthengeoeconomicblocs(80%).

Almostsixoutoften(57%)alsoexpectit

toincreaseinequalityandwidentheNorth-

Southdivideinthenextthreeyears.

Growingglobalfragmentationisclosely

intertwinedwiththeresurgenceinindustrial

policies.Abouttwo-thirdsexpectthese

policiestoenabletheemergenceofnew

economicgrowthhotspotsandvitalnew

industries,withthemajoritywarningofrising

?scalstrains(79%)anddivergencebetween

higher-andlower-incomeeconomies(66%).

5

Respondentsarealmostunanimous

inexpectingthesepoliciestoremain

largelyuncoordinatedbetween

countries,withadifferentmixof

defensiveandenablingapproachesin

high-andlow-incomeeconomies.

Therapidadvancesinthe?eldofarti?cial

intelligenceputitontopofbusinessand

policyagendasin2024.Respondentsare

notablymoreoptimisticaboutAI-enabled

bene?tsinhigh-incomeeconomiesthanindevelopingeconomies,includinganincrease

intheef?ciencyofoutputproduction(79%)

andinnovation(74%),withamoremixed

pictureregardingstandardsofliving(57%).

Chiefeconomistsarealmostunanimous

(94%)inexpectingproductivitygainsto

becomeeconomicallysigni?cantinhigh-

incomeeconomiesinthenext?veyears,

comparedtoonly53%forlow-income

economies.Theviewsaresomewhatmore

dividedonthelikelihoodofgenerativeAI

resultinginadeclineintrustacrosshigh-

income(56%)andlow-income(44%)

economiesthisyear.

6

1.Globalconditions

remainsubdued

Growthmomentumisslowingacrossregions

Globaleconomicprospectsremain

subduedandfraughtwithuncertainty,accordingtothelatestsurveyofchiefeconomists.Although56%ofchief

economistsexpecttheglobaleconomy

toweakenoverthenextyear,20%foresee

unchangedconditionsandnearlyaquarter

expectstrongerconditions(seeFigure1).

Thesesomewhatdividedresultshighlight

thattheambiguitythatdominatedthe

outlookoverthelastyearcontinuesto

cloudnear-termeconomicdevelopments.

Figure1.Theglobaleconomicoutlook

Lookingattheyearahead,whatareyourexpectationsforthefutureconditionofthe

globaleconomy?

MuchweakerSomewhatweakerUnchangedSomewhatstrongerMuchstronger

3532023

Shareofrespondents(%)

Note:Thenumbersinthegraphsmaynotaddupto100%because?gureshavebeenroundedup/down.

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Therelativeresilienceoftheworld

economyintherecentyearswillcontinue

tobetestedentering2024.Globaleconomicactivityisstallingwithsignsofslowdown

inboththemanufacturingandservices

sectors.1Tight?nancialconditionsweigh

onconsumerandbusinesssentiments,2

while?scalandmonetarypolicy-makersareassessingtrade-offsandsequencingfor

carefulpolicycalibration.

Theeconomicbackdropismarkedby

protractedweaknessinglobalgrowthand

wideningdivergence.TheInternational

MonetaryFund(IMF)forecastsaslight

declineinglobalgrowthto2.9%in2024,

downfrom3%in2023.3Therelative

resilienceinglobal?gurescontinuestorely

onthegrowthperformanceofemerging

economies,whilethemomentumin

advancedeconomiesisfading.

1S&PGlobal,December2023b.

2Lane,April2023.

3IMF,October2023.

7

74152

5

155630

4354615

167212

305911

340533

3169

3565

106723

However,growthforecastsremainvulnerable

toanincreasedriskofshocks.The

geopoliticalriftshighlightedasasourceofglobaleconomicvolatilityinthelastsurvey4havesinceincreasedwithnewcon?icts

eruptingorworseninginAfrica,theMiddleEast5andLatinAmerica.6

Whileeconomicheadwindsremain

contained,theseescalationsriskrupturing

supplychainsandsendingshockwaves

beyondthecommoditymarkets.Further

uncertaintyhingesontheoutcomesof

electioncyclesinthecomingyear.

Figure2.Growthexpectations

Whatisyourexpectationforeconomicgrowthinthefollowinggeographiesin2024?

VeryweakWeakModerateStrongVerystrong

SouthAsia

EastAsiaandPaci?c

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

CentralAsia

LatinAmericaandtheCarribbean

UnitedStates

China

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Europe

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Regionalperformanceexpectationsare

highlyvaried(seeFigure2).ChiefeconomistscontinuetoseethemostbuoyanteconomicactivityintheeconomiesofAsia,although

noregionisslatedforverystronggrowthin2024.TheoutlookforSouthAsiaandEastAsiaandPaci?cremainspositiveandbroadlyunchangedcomparedtothelastsurvey,

with93%and86%expectingmoderateorstrongergrowthforSouthAsiaandEastAsia

andPaci?c,respectively.Chinaisanotable

exceptionasweakconsumption,lower

industrialproductionanddistressinproperty

marketsweighontheprospectsofa

strongerreboundin2024.7Theviewsofchief

economistshavealsoshifted,withstrong

(19%)andmoderate(38%)expectationsin

theprevioussurveyreplacedwithlargely

moderate(69%)expectationsfor2024.

4WorldEconomicForum,September2023a.

5Livnietal.,November2023.

6Delcas,December2023.

7IMF,October2023.

8

ThechangeintheoutlookforEurope

isparticularlystark,withtheshareof

respondentsexpectingweakorveryweak

growthalmostdoublingto77%since

September.IntheUS,theexpectationsaresigni?cantlyweakertoo,with56%foreseeingmoderateorhighergrowthin2024,

comparedto78%intheprevioussurvey.Botheconomiesconfronttightlending

conditions,aslowdowninmanufacturingandexposuretogeopoliticalrifts.

ExpectationsforgrowthhavestrengthenedinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanand

Sub-SaharanAfrica,withaslightuptick

intheshareofrespondentsexpecting

atleastmoderategrowthto70%and

65%,respectively.InCentralAsia,the

improvementismorepronouncedwithabout84%ofrespondentsexpectingatleast

moderategrowthin2024,upfrom66%intheprevioussurvey.

IntheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,the

expectationshaveslightlyweakened

re?ectingbroaderuncertaintyaboutthe

trajectoryoftheIsrael-Hamaswaranditsimplicationsforthewiderregion.Although61%stillforeseemoderateorstronger

growthin2024,regionalprospectsremaincloudedbyweakoildemand8andasharpcontractionintourism.9

Thenear-termoutlookfortheregions

discussedarrivesafteraprotracted

slowdownofgrowthmomentumacrossall

geographies.Accordingtooneestimate,

averageannualgrowthhasdeclinedfrom

2.0%intheearly2000sto1.4%inthepost-

COVID-19periodinadvancedeconomies

andfrom5.8%to1.7%inemergingand

developingeconomies.10Theprospectsofa

reboundtopre-pandemictrajectoryappear

elusive:theIMFforesees3.1%average

annualgrowthoverthenext?veyears,the

weakestmedium-termoutlookindecades.

Moreover,initslatestWorldEconomic

Outlook,theIMFpointsoutthatratesof

convergenceareslowingtoo,withthetime

neededtoclosehalfthegapinincomeper

capitabetweenemerginganddeveloping

economiesandadvancedeconomies

increasingfrom80yearsin2008to130

yearsinthelatestestimates.11

Whiletechnologicaladvancesmaygivenew

impetustoglobalproductivity,12policiesthat

enhancegood-qualitygrowthareneeded

toreviveglobalmomentumandbalancethe

impactacrosstheincomegroups.When

askedaboutgrowthstrategiesavailableto

developingeconomiesinthecurrentcontext,

chiefeconomistshighlighted?veinparticular:

layingasoundinstitutionalframeworkfor

long-termgrowth,improvingintegration

intoglobalvaluechains,tappingintogreen

transitionopportunities,strengthening

innovationcapacity,digitalinfrastructureand

asoundinvestmentclimate,andinvestingin

humancapitalandbasicservices.

8IEA,December2023.

9S&PGlobal,November2023.

10WorldEconomicForum,January2024.

11IMF,October2023.

12Pizzinellietal.,October2023.

9

32

56

8

4

116326

175825

4156319

4176317

206713

3206313

59

24

17

Tighteningcyclemaybenearingtheend

Atthestartof2024,globalin?ationcontinuestoease,proppingexpectationsofmild

ebbingininterestratesthisyear.13Theglobalheadlineratesofin?ationareprojectedto

reach4.8%,14asharpdeclinefrom5.9%

in2023and9.2%in2022.Corein?ationis

deceleratingtoo,albeitataslowerpace,and

isexpectedtoreach4.5%in2024.15The

easingisre?ectedinthelatestsurveyresults,

withexpectationsforhighin?ationbeing

paredbackacrossallregions.

Figure3.In?ationexpectations

Whatisyourexpectationforin?ationinthefollowinggeographiesin2024?

VerylowLowModerateHighVeryhigh

Sub-SaharanAfrica

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

SouthAsia

CentralAsia

Europe

UnitedStates

4

4

26

67

EastAsiaandPaci?c

China

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Theimprovementinexpectationsis

particularlymarkedforEuropeandtheUS

(seeFigure3),withtheshareofrespondentsexpectinghighorveryhighin?ationdecliningfrom,respectively,71%and47%in

Septembertoonly13%inthelatestsurvey.However,two-thirdsofchiefeconomists

stillexpectmoderatein?ationinEurope

andtheUS.Chinaremainsanoutlierintheotherdirection,with76%ofrespondentsstillexpectingloworverylowin?ation.

Elsewhereintheworld,theexpectationsfor

lowerin?ationstrengthened,includingEast

AsiaandPaci?c(30%),CentralAsia(21%),

andSouthAsia(19%),withthemajority

expectingmoderatein?ation.Despitea

signi?cantimprovementintheoutlookand

broadlymoderateexpectations,morethan

aquarterofrespondentsstillexpecthigh

orveryhighin?ationinSub-SaharanAfrica

(36%),LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

(26%),MiddleEastandNorthAmerica(25%).

13Smith,December2023.

14IMF,October2023.

15Ibid.

10

1776017

17136010

Inthelatestsurveythemajorityofchiefeconomistsalsoexpectlabourmarkets(77%)tolooseninadvancedeconomies–ahighernumberthaninSeptember.

Theyalsoexpect?nancialconditions(70%)

toloosenintheadvancedeconomies(see

Figure4).

Figure4.Globalconditions

Lookingattheyearahead,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagree

Labourmarketconditionswillloosen

inmostadvancedeconomies

Financialconditionswillhavestartedtolooseninmostadvancedeconomies

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Thesefactorsarere?ectedintheevolving

monetarypolicypatterns.Anotablymore

dovishcommunicationoftheUSFederal

ReserveattheDecember2023meeting16

signalledapossiblepivotinthetightening

cyclefollowingaprolongedpause.While

marketsarepricingasmanyassixinterest

ratecutsbytheFederalReserve17andthe

EuropeanCentralBank18thisyear,thepolicystanceremainscautiousonbothsidesof

theAtlantic19aspolicy-makersnavigate

challengingdomesticandglobalconditions.Theunusuallyhighdegreeofuncertaintyovereconomicand?nancialdevelopmentsmeansthetimingandextentofeasingwillposea

dilemmaforpolicy-makersthatcontinuetonavigatetrade-offsbetweentighteningtoomuchandtoolittle.

Accumulatedsocietalstrainsfromdomesticpricepressures,protractedslowdownin

economicactivityand?nancialstability

concernswillweighonpolicydecisionsin

2024.Inthemeantime,highinterestrates

continuetestingtheresilienceofeconomies,

withthenumberofcorporatedebtdefaults

risingabovelong-termaveragesacrossboth

advancedandemergingeconomies20atthe

endof2023.TheWorldBankalsopointsto

risingriskstosovereigndebtsustainability,

withdebtservicingcostsinlow-income

economiesprojectedtoriseby39%over

thenexttwoyears.21

Itisalsoworthnotingthatin?ationremains

vulnerabletoshocksincommoditymarkets

andsupplychains.Aprolongeddisruption

intheRedSea,22escalationofregional

con?icts,excessiveredundancyandrising

climatevolatility23weighontheoutlook.For

example,thearrivalofElNi?oalonecould

increaseglobalfoodpricesbyupto9%.24

16FederalReserve,December2023.

17Clarfeltetal.,December2023.

18McDougalletal.,December2023.

19EuropeanCentralBank,December2023.

20S&PGlobal,December2023a.

21WorldBank,December2023.

22Eavis,December2023.

23Kuiketal.,December2023.

24Adolfsenetal.,September2023.

11

10215217

2.Geopoliticalrifts

compounduncertainty

Fragmentationcloudstheoutlook

Globaleconomicdevelopmentsare

beingprofoundlyshapedbydeepening

fragmentation.Almostsevenoutoften(69%)

chiefeconomistsareexpectingthepaceof

geoeconomicfragmentationtoaccelerate

thisyear(seeFigure5).

Figure5.Fragmentationoutlook

Lookingattheyearahead,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowingstatements?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagree

Globallythepaceofgeoeconomicfragmentationwillaccelerate

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Geoeconomicallydrivenrestructuringof

theglobaleconomyhasbeenevidentforsometime.Therecentyearshavebeen

markedbygreaterrivalryintheUS-

Chinarelationship,partialsplinteringof

internationaltrade?ows,25andasharptilttowardsprotectionistpolicies.26Atthestartof2024,variousalliancesandsimmeringglobalcon?ictsarebuoyingconcernsthatglobaleconomiccooperationisfaltering.

Thegravityofthecurrentmomentumisnotlostonleaders,however,withmanywarningofhardeningcoldwarrhetoricandcostly

outcomesoffragmentation.27

Whenaskedabouttheimplicationsof

recentdevelopments(seeFigure6),

chiefeconomistscontinueassigninga

prominentroletogeopoliticalfactorsacross

macroeconomicand?nancialdevelopments.

About87%expectrecentgeopolitical

developmentstostokeglobaleconomic

volatilityinthenextthreeyears,andeight

outoftenexpectittoheightenvolatilityin

stockmarkets.

25WTO,September2023.

26WTO,December2023.

27Gopinath,December2023.

12

3106720

136323

3175327

7135723

340507

33

30

33

3

17472313

Figure6.Theimpactofgeoeconomicfragmentation

Inlightofrecentgeopoliticaldevelopments,howlikelyisitthatthenextthreeyearswillleadtosigni?cant…

ExtremelyunlikelySomewhatunlikelyNeitherlikelynorunlikelySomewhatlikelyExtremelylikely

...volatilityintheglobaleconomy?

...increaseinlocalizationofeconomicactivityandinvestment?ows?

...stockmarketvolatility?

...increaseingeoeconomicblocsof

economicactivityandinvestment?ows?...increaseininequalityandgrowing

North-Southdivergence?

...rupturesinmajorglobalsupplychains?

...increaseinglobalizationofeconomicactivityandinvestment?ows?

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Thereisstrongconsensusthatgeopoliticaldevelopmentswillcontinuetoimpact

economicactivityandinvestment?ows,with86%expectinganincreaseinlocalization

and80%sayinggeoeconomicblocswill

strengthen.Onthe?ipside,two-thirdsof

respondentssayanincreaseinglobalizationisunlikelyoverthenextthreeyears.This

isinlinewiththedevelopmentsinsupply

chainstrategiesinrecentyears,marked

byanotableshiftinnarrativeandactiontoreshoring,nearshoring,friendshoring,and,morerecently,de-riskingstrategies.28The

potentiallossinglobaleconomicoutput

fromincreasedtraderestrictionscouldreachupto7%29accordingtotheIMF.Thesignsofretreatareemerging,withglobaltrade

decliningby5%30in2023.Ontheother

hand,tradewithinalliedblocshasbeen

gainingmomentum,with6.2%31growthin

thethirdquarterof2023.

Thecostsoffragmentationareprojected

tobesigni?cantlyhigherforlow-income

economies,reachingupto4%ofglobal

domesticproduct(GDP),32andalmostdouble

thatofadvancedeconomies.Although

evenapartialretreatinglobalizationwill

resultinsizeablecontractionforvarious

blocs,anythird-partycountries’gains

arelargelyoffsetbytheheadwindsfrom

thecontractioninmajortradepartners.33

Besidesthedirectimpactthroughtrade

channels,aretreatincooperationrisks

stalling,ifnotrollingback,decadesof

progresstowardsdevelopmenttargets.

28TheEconomist,May2023.

29Bolhuisetal.,March2023.

30UNCTAD,December2023.

31Ibid.

32Bolhuisetal.,March2023.

33Cerdeiroetal.,October2023.

13

3

5

8

4

17

14

5

10

17

18

20

11

11

11

9

9

8

7

5

5

3

1

Lookingatthenextthreeyears,sixoutoftenchiefeconomistssaidgeopoliticaldevelopmentswillincreaseinequalityandwidenNorth-Southdivide.

Onenotablepointofdisagreementamongthechiefeconomistsisthelikelihoodthat

geopoliticaltensionswillresultinasigni?cant

ruptureofglobalsupplychainsinthenext

threeyears.Only36%ofrespondentsthink

potentialdisruptionsarelikely,anotherthird

areuncertainandathirdbelievetheyare

unlikely.Thisislikelytore?ectinpartthe

effectivenessofrestructuringstrategies

andincreasedresilienceofsupplychains

inrecentyears.

Figure7.Industryoutlook

Whichsectorsandindustriesarelikelytobeatanadvantageordisadvantageinthe

geoeconomicoutlookfor2024?

SectorsandindustrieswithnegativeoutlookSectorsandindustrieswithpositiveoutlook

0

0

Informationtechnologyanddigitalcommunications

Mining(excludingfossilfuels)

Medical,healthcareandcareservices

Low-carbonenergy

(includingrenewables)

Engineering,constructionandutilities

Agriculture,forestryand?shing

Fossil-fuelenergyand

materials

Leisureandtravel

Supplychainandtransportservices

Manufacturing

Financial,professional,realestateservices

Retailandwholesaleofconsumergoods

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey,November-December2023

Whenaskedaboutthesectoralimpactofthegeoeconomicoutlook,chief

economistshighlightedarangeof

industrieswheretheyexpectamore

negativeoutlookin2024,includingretail

andwholesaleofconsumergoods,

fossil-fuelenergyandmaterials,?nancial,

professionalandrealestateservices,

leisureandtravel,andmanufacturing.

14

Therespondentsaresigni?cantlymore

optimisticabouttheimpactofrecent

developmentsontheoutlookforother

industries,includinginformationtechnologyanddigitalcommunications,mining,

medical,healthcareandcareservices,

andlow-carbonenergy(seeFigure7).

Technology,miningandlow-carbonenergy,inparticular,areexpectedtobene?tfrom

theprojected11%34increaseintheglobaldemandforrenewableenergyandstrategiccompetitionbetweenthegeoeconomic

blocsasnewindustrialpoliciesrampupinvestmentsanddemandforcriticalmaterialsandcomponents.35

Thesurveyalsoaskedchiefeconomistswhatstrategiesbusinessesmightadoptinthefaceofrisinggeoeconomicfragmentationin2024.Threepatternsfeatureprominently.First,

diversi?cation,ratherthanisolation,remainst