財務估值模型

,公司名稱：,,,,,

,一般情景,,,,,

,公司基本情況,,,,,

,,2002,2003,2004E,2005E,2006E

,每股收益（元）,0.172,0.295,0.511,0.600,0.694

,凈利潤增長率,,71.71%,73.20%,17.26%,15.75%

,市盈率（倍）,NA,27.09,15.64,13.34,11.53

,行業(yè)平均市盈率（倍）,37.77,28.02,29.17,28.44,N/A

,市場平均市盈率（倍）,42.35,33.95,28.85,26.90,N/A

,PE/G（倍）,,0.38,0.21,0.77,0.73

,凈資產收益率,9.30%,13.77%,21.31%,22.21%,23.31%

,每股凈資產（元）,1.85,2.14,2.40,2.70,2.98

,市凈率（倍）,,3.73,3.33,2.96,2.69

,每股經營性現(xiàn)金（元）,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.87,0.98

,流通A股（百萬股）,250.0,250.0,250.0,250.0,250.0

,總股本（百萬股）,"3,326.0","3,326.0","3,326.0","3,326.0","3,326.0"

,利潤表（百萬元）,,,,,

,,2002,2003,2004E,2005E,2006E

,銷售收入,"4,326","5,177","6,471","7,636","8,781"

,增長率,,19.7%,25.0%,18.0%,15.0%

,主營業(yè)務成本、稅金,"3,207","3,722","4,192","4,972","5,724"

,%銷售收入,74.1%,71.9%,64.8%,65.1%,65.2%

,主營業(yè)務利潤,"1,119","1,454","2,278","2,664","3,057"

,主營利潤率,25.9%,28.1%,35.2%,34.9%,34.8%

,其他業(yè)務利潤,25,24,25,25,25

,%稅前利潤,3.7%,2.1%,1.2%,1.1%,0.9%

,營業(yè)費用,0,0,0,0,0

,%銷售收入,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%

,管理費用,188,226,224,261,298

,%銷售收入,4.3%,4.4%,3.5%,3.4%,3.4%

,財務費用,156,118,97,100,86

,%銷售收入,3.6%,2.3%,1.5%,1.3%,1.0%

,營業(yè)利潤,800,"1,134","1,982","2,328","2,698"

,營業(yè)利潤率,18.5%,21.9%,30.6%,30.5%,30.7%

,投資、補貼及營業(yè)外收支,-116,20,20,20,20

,%稅前利潤,-17.0%,1.7%,1.0%,0.9%,0.7%

,稅前利潤,684,"1,154","2,002","2,348","2,718"

,利潤率,15.8%,22.3%,30.9%,30.8%,31.0%

,所得稅,111,172,300,352,408

,所得稅率,16.3%,14.9%,15.0%,15.0%,15.0%

,少數(shù)股東損益,0.3,0.7,1.1,1.3,1.6

,%稅前利潤,0.0%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%,0.1%

,凈利潤,572,982,"1,701","1,994","2,309"

,凈利率,13.2%,19.0%,26.3%,26.1%,26.3%

,增長率,,71.7%,73.2%,17.3%,15.7%

,EPS（元/股）,0.172,0.295,0.511,0.600,0.694

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,資產負債表（百萬元）,,,,,

,,2002,2003,2004E,2005E,2006E

,貨幣資金,715,"1,138",700,"1,886","2,457"

,應收款項,NA,243,279,329,379

,存貨,116,116,147,177,208

,其他流動資產,194,262,324,382,439

,流動資產,"1,449","1,760","1,450","1,589","2,912"

,固定資產,"7,498","7,726","9,099","9,873","9,491"

,資產總計,"9,002","9,585","10,654","11,575","12,523"

,短期貸款,197,271,380,140,0

,應付賬款,193,152,184,222,260

,其他流動負債,646,338,364,437,512

,流動負債,"1,037",762,929,800,772

,長期負債,"1,804","1,686","1,738","1,790","1,842"

,負債,"2,841","2,447","2,666","2,589","2,613"

,少數(shù)股東權益,5.5,6.1,6.4,6.6,6.9

,股東權益,"6,149","7,131","7,982","8,979","9,902"

,負債股東權益合計,"9,002","9,585","10,654","11,575","12,523"

,,,,,,,

,現(xiàn)金流量表（人民幣百萬元）,,,,,

,,2002,2003,2004E,2005E,2006E

,凈利潤,572,982,"1,701","1,994","2,309"

,少數(shù)股東損益增額,0.3,0.7,0.2,0.3,0.3

,折舊與攤銷,864,791,831,928,986

,壞帳準備,-3.2,4.7,7.7,5.6,5.5

,營運資金變動,307,154,-86,-41,-38

,經營活動現(xiàn)金凈流,"1,741","1,932","2,453","2,887","3,262"

,資本開支,-979,-970,"-2,200","-1,700",-600

,其他,0,0,0,0,0

,投資活動現(xiàn)金凈流,-979,-970,"-2,200","-1,700",-600

,募集資金,829,0,0,0,0

,股息,-333,-443,-850,-997,"-1,385